Camdencast Episode 10 - GMs Past, Present and Future
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 26, 2011 10:01 AM EDT
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PrintAndrew and I are back after a little hiatus. It's just the two of us this time, and the bulk of the podcast is talking about recent Orioles GMs. Two-part podcasts may be the new normal. They are about 25 minutes apiece.
Part I, which can be found here:
0:00-12:00 – Remembering Mike Flanagan – and how the teams he built as GM weren't as bad as you think
12:00-18:30 – Will the Orioles lose 100 games? Does it even matter? No, it doesn't matter.
18:30-23:51 – What do we want out of the Orioles' next GM?
Part II, which can be found right here:
0:00-12:00 - What went wrong with MacPhail's plan? Was a 100 loss season inevitable?
12:00-19:45 - Andrew's theory about why Vlad is continuing to bat cleanup
19:45-25:08 - Fan optimism, no matter how irrational
If you were subscribed on iTunes, you could have gotten automatic updates to Camdencast with no hassle. Or if you use some other means of acquiring podcasts, you can run our XML link through the program of your choice.
We'll try our best to have a show a week for the rest of the season. As always, please let us know if you have any feedback. We'll be back again!
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I meant to ask, in between all of my "uh"s and "you know"s
if you would be in favor of the plan to bat Vlad cleanup all season-long (as opposed to, say, for 2 months) in exchange for my theory being correct.
Alright, whatever.
Vlad can bat cleanup if your theory is correct.
You are right that it’s not like it much matters at this point, in a way. The season is already lost.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 26, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
what about when the season wasn't lost?
what if I was willing to offer you this bargain on the day the O’s were 30-31? Then would you have taken it or kicked Vladdy down to the 8th spot where he belongs?
Alright, whatever.
I really, really, really, really, really hope you're right.
But it seems to me that the handling of Gregg seems to contradict it. Isn’t hit situation similar to Vlad in a sense?
He’s an “established” player (or so it seems they believe) who has been kept in a role on the team for which he is not fit.
But where’s the plan there? Keep him as a closer and then pawn him off on some unsuspecting even more stupid team? But they didn’t try to trade him.
It’s probably more likely that they have incorrectly evaluated his talent.
whats the alternative, though?
He’s untradeable, so you can’t get rid of him unless you cut him and eat all that cash. And you have to believe that he won’t be this bad next year. He’s been serviceable in the past, he can be serviceable for the Orioles next year. So you probably don’t want to cut him without saving the money. And anyway you’d replace him with someone like Jeremy Accardo, who also has issues with being good on the mound. So you probably want to hold onto him and hope things turn around this year or next.
So the alternative is to just piss him off and make him the not-closer. And then you’d just make someone else the closer. Gonzo, I guess. Oh and then we’d all get to see Gregg blowing games in the seventh instead of the ninth.
I do think that up to a certain point in the season everyone fully believed all of these guys were really going to be key players. But I refuse to accept that Buck or Andy looks at Gregg and his over minute strikeout to walk ratio (7th worst among all relievers in the game) and think that that is an acceptable situation. This will, after all, probably lead to another extremely unfortunate big reliever signing this winter (my money remains on Papelbon).
Alright, whatever.
I think it was apparent to us as fans that Gregg would not be an adequate closer after a couple of months.
I can accept the reasoning that right now Gregg may be the best of a lot of bad options as closer, and he’s going to screw up whatever game from whatever inning he pitches. But in June he was still the closer, and at that point we had Koji Uehara who was rocking the house, and Jim Johnson before they decided he was going to be stretched out for the rotation. So, I don’t know. I think there was a long time where they were in denial about his talent level, telling themselves that he would be better than he’s been, but he hasn’t, and won’t, because he’s Kevin Gregg.
With Vlad it’s the same kind of story. I didn’t articulate this very well when we were recording, but it’s not that I think they look at what Vlad is and think, “Yeah, he should be a cleanup hitter.” It’s that they were constantly believing he’d turn things around. Maybe at some point that shifted into something else, but I don’t know.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 26, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point.
It’s sad that we’re trying to justify having some of the worst players in the game in the hopes that maybe next year they wont be as bad.
EME mentioned Occam's Razor
and with Gregg it really is simple: he still has his job that he wants because of the money he is owed and because it’s obvious that removing him from that job would make for some kind of clubhouse cancer. That’s really all there is to it.
Alright, whatever.
With Gregg, I agree that's the simplest explanation.
For the Vlad situation, I just think the simplest isn’t that there’s a handshake arbitration/decline/draft pick agreement. It’s probably that they were so bought into the notion that his veteran track record would eventually manifest, failing to consider that veteran track record also = old.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Aug 26, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
but that didn't stop them from lowering Lee when it became obvious that he sucked
there simply has to be something beyond either “Well, he used to be really good” or “I think he’s playing really well” or even “He deserves our respect because of what he’s done in his career”. That thought process is too platitudinous to seriously be the professionals’ actual opinion.
Alright, whatever.
though...
vlad has not had one month as good as lee’s july. vlad did exceed lee’s OPS for that month, but it was in half as many games and he has not come close to lee’s xbh total for that month, which was 12, nor his rbi total, which was 19.
…and obviously, i only bring up rbi, b/c that was what vlad was ostensibly brough to b’more to do. his rWAR now stands at a lowly -.3, lee left on relatve high note at .3.
i know i’m not saying anything you guys don’t know, it’s just sort of shocking to me to see it in black and white.
"the secret to a happy ending is knowing when to roll the credits"
by j.q. higgins on Aug 26, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Good job!
Interesting stuff about pitch/fieldfx. Dug it.
meaningless game in a mostly meaningless season of meaningless meaninglessness. emperor nobody, A's Nation.
speaking of pitchfx
there’s a conference this weekend!
http://baseball.sportvision.com/summit
meaningless game in a mostly meaningless season of meaningless meaninglessness. emperor nobody, A's Nation.
Really nice podcast, gentlemen.
It was interesting to hear you both say that you didn’t really remember Flanny as a player due to your ages. I’m sort of in the same boat, but think I’m a couple years older than you both: along with Cal, Billy, Eddie, and references to Palmer during HTS broadcasts, Flanny and Dempsey were the first O’s I remember being aware of as a little kid, though I didn’t really start getting into following the team religiously until ’89, and by then Mussina was a glimmer in our collective eye and we had to slog through some truly awful pitching by Milacki.
Also had no idea Andrew works for BIS, though it makes perfect sense, given he’s the most SABRmetrically inclined of us.
"Look, we all deal with Lou Montanez in our individual ways."-Andrew_G
by NoTimeForLove, Dr. Jones! on Aug 26, 2011 5:53 PM EDT reply actions
Excellent podcast
I was in Chicago for business last week and it was great hearing the Camdencasts, I felt like I was back home again (on the East Coast). Made my way to Wrigley field which was an amazing experience and even met two O’s fans from Baltimore (I was wearing my trusty O’s cap).
Say what you will about the team, but whenever I run into O’s fans in a random city they are always a friendly bunch, after all, we’re all we’ve got lol.
Favorite lines from this podcast, Andrew G: (sic)“If you were to make a movie about the 2011 Orioles…and that would be a terrible idea” and EME’s reference to the AL East being a category 5 hurricane to hit the Orioles lol
Great work guys
"Birdland is the belief that as great as today just was, tomorrow might be even better." -EME
by OriolesOptimist on Sep 5, 2011 12:07 PM EDT reply actions
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