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Birds Up, O's Down for July 25 - Aug 7

Mark Reynolds unleashes a monster bomb.  (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

 

Rotation                                

Jake Arrieta Out for the season with elbow surgery to remove a bone spur/fibrous mass.  Probably for the best since he's been dealing with this pain for awhile and it is possible it was hindering his control (8 walks in two starts).

Brad Bergesen Better suited for the bullpen.  Allowed 6 runs (4 earned) in a 3 inning start, but followed that up with 3 good innings out of the pen.  Sandwiched a random relief appearance in there where he allowed 3 hits and only got one out.

Zach Britton Zach's lucky he's injured, otherwise he'd be getting Mr. Yuk.  Was getting absolutely mauled before hitting the DL with a shoulder strain.  Why can't we have prospects that actually turn into real baseball players??

Jeremy Guthrie Didn't get traded and hasn't performed particularly well since the deadline.  One good start, one poor start, and one mediocre start.  Sigh.

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Tommy Hunter Another guy who should probably stick to the pen.  Incredibly small sample size, but his stuff didn't look good enough for him to remain a starter.

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Alfredo Simon Was the O's best starter for a while, but that has worn off somewhat.  He's gotten progressively less effective in his last three starts.

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Chris Tillman Okay, that last start was pretty nice.  We'll see if it lasts.

Star-divide

Bullpen                                          

Jason Berken Sometimes he's good, sometimes he's not.  The ridiculousness of his last outing was incredible and, for that, a down arrow.

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Mike Gonzalez Didn't allow a run the past two weeks, but hardly pitched (although he did pitch in two games on the same day).  We're getting closer and closer to the day his contract expires.

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Kevin Gregg Probably the longest stretch he's gone during an active season without allowing a run.  Then again, the O's haven't had many save ops lately.

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Mark Hendrickson Pitched a few times (to little effect) and then disappeared.  Not even sure where he is now.

Chris Jakubauskas Not half-bad out of the pen lately.  His ERA is still monumental, but allowing 6 ER over 2 innings will do that to you.

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Jim Johnson

Was pretty good up until his most recent outings.  Might be suffering from overuse (and people out there want him to start?) which is likely to get worse without another decent option in the bullpen.

Troy Patton Has actually been pretty good since the Orioles decided to show the word he is, in fact, a real pitcher.

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Jo-Jo Reyes About to get a start because the Orioles don't really have anyone else.  Whooo boy.
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Koji Uehara Peace out, Koji.  We (Jim Johnson especially) will miss you here.
Lineup

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Robert Andino Doesn't provide much, but hey, it could be worse.

Josh Bell And here you thought that it wasn't possible to have defense worse than Mark Reynolds.  Ladies and gents, I present to you:  Nugget.  Yeah, its bad.

Blake Davis Can't hit, but provides depth at a thin position for the Orioles.

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Chris Davis Hasn't played much because he "slept on his shoulder funny."  Uh huh.  Right, Chris.

Vladimir Guerrero Every day he's hustlin' hustlin'.  Gotta love a guy who hits nothing but singles batting cleanup.

J.J. Hardy Should learn to talk a walk every now and then to go with the home runs.  Can't argue much with a .500+ slugging %.

Cesar Izturis Easy come, easy go.  Off of the DL just to go right back on.

Adam Jones Yeah, the home runs are nice.....but can he hit a cutoff man?

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Derrek Lee Nice knowin' ya, Silky D. 

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Nick Markakis When was the last time he hit a home run?

Felix Pie Glad to see that somebody finally realized Pie shouldn't be starting since he can't hit and can't play much in the way of defense.

Nolan Reimold Really needed to grab the starting role by the reins, but so far has failed to impress.  OPS has slipped as his OBP has dropped below .300

Mark Reynolds Yea....we know he can't play defense at third, but he's getting an up arrow for his monster home runs.  Did you see those?  It was crazy.  You should have been there.  Maybe he can stick at first?  (Soul-killing strikeout tracker:  129)

Craig Tatum Has absolutely zero power and doesn't really hit much else, to be honest.

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Matt Wieters He's been struggling some at the plate....hopefully last night was an indication of what's to come for SHJ.

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Comments

Display:

I was about to say that as well...

"Human beings make life so interesting. Do you know, that in a universe so full of wonders, they have managed to invent boredom?" ~ Death

by NSOsFan on Aug 9, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know :-(

I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck

by twistedlogic on Aug 9, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who was telling me a few weeks ago that Markakis could hit 20 HRs?

What a joke.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Aug 9, 2011 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

pitchfx data on hunter

I thought Hunter’s stuff was ok, but he didn’t seem to use offspeed much. He constantly threw pitches in the lower 90s and he often hit 94 on the gun. pitchfx reports 92 MPH as his average FB speed. Not that it was a great pitch, but one of his fastballs had a slip dip to it. But just there wasn’t a lot variation in his repertoire. It seemed like he just kept throwing fastball after fastball. Out of the 79 pitches in his last start, he only threw 13 curveballs and that’s his only offspeed pitch. I’ve seen Jeremy Guthrie pitch good games just pumping fastballs w/o many strikeouts, but he’s much better in inducing harmless flyballs. In any case, Hunter needs to start to keep hitters off balance better or he looks like a long reliever. He has a track record of being decent starter so I hate to draw any conclusions about his pitch repertoire off of one start. He does have a change up but I don’t think he uses it much.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Aug 9, 2011 1:05 PM EDT reply actions  

i think his change up is a "show me" change.

he doesn’t use it much because he doesn’t have much confidence in it, but he throws it occasionally to keep hitters off balance.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Aug 9, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Hunter throws a lot of cutters

that are very hard and don’t move a lot (i.e. they are shitty). Probably 90-91s getting counted as FBs.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Aug 9, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

he does throw a lot cutters

i’ve been playing around with his past starts on pitchfx. i wish i could see movement data BY pitch or figure out how to do it.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Aug 9, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I heard this, too

that he developed a cutter in an attempt to get more lefties out.

Career vs LHB: .292/.357/.485 5.52 FIP

Career vs RHB: .237/.269/.387 3.92 FIP

2011 vs LHB: .406/.457/.531 5.86 FIP

2011 vs. RHB: .191/.231/.213 2.37 FIP

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?

by Andrew_G on Aug 9, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I never understand this

I hear pitchers and pitching coaches talk about this all the time, but as a righty if you struggle against lefties, the best weapon you can have is a changeup and it’s much easier to learn than an effective cutter.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Aug 9, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know

it also seems pretty clear that his attempt simply isn’t working, and it’ll be made pretty clear once he goes through the lefty juggernaut lineups in the AL East a few times. So you’d think he’d try something else. Heck, maybe its just too hard to work on your repertoire mid-season, especially after a trade.

Worth noting is that while the gap in his platoon FIPs is so big you could put the warehouse in there, the gap in his xFIPs (which normalize the home run rates based on his fly ball rates, and Tommy Hunter is a fly ball pitcher) is still present but smaller. It’s about a 0.75 difference for the career in favor of righties, and about 1.75 in 2011 in favor of righties. And, you know, sample sizes and such.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?

by Andrew_G on Aug 9, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

it’s because a cutter is suppose to dive into left handed hitters if you’re a right handed pitcher. i think that’s the rationale at least. rivera is obviously an extreme example of that.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Aug 9, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right

but the problem is that it’s VERY difficult to throw an effective cutter that actually eats up lefties’ hands. It’s not nearly as hard to learn an effective changeup – you just have to throw it 50-100 times every day while playing catch. The cutter requires a certain arm action and release point that a) not everybody has/can have, and b) may require a pitcher to change it and thus either broadcast the pitch or hurt their other pitches.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Aug 9, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh neither is easy

but compared to learning a cutter, the changeup is dramatically easier.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Aug 9, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

sure, i'm just saying in theory that explains why hunter added a cutter.

his execution is of course a separate matter.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Aug 9, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

just for kicks, i decided to compare hunter’s vertical/horizontal movement to mariano rivera who seems to have a reputation for having a good cutter. rivera just gets insane vertical movement on his cutter. the top of the scale is 15 inches and rivera is damn there in one random game i looked at. compare that hunter and hunter has a good 4-5 inches less vertical movement in comparison to rivera.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Aug 9, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

In Hunter's start

I could see the cutter spin, but it really wasn’t moving, which is what happens when people try to throw a cutter without really being about to execute it.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Aug 9, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

he was definitely getting movement on something

but i can’t disaggregate the damn data by pitch!

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Aug 9, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

the other interesting thing

is that i thought rivera would get more much more horizontal movement since his pitches dive to the left. but he only gets a couple of inches according to pitchfx data.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Aug 9, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

How far back does the data go?

I feel like he got more horizontal movement when he threw harder.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Aug 9, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

2007

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Aug 9, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ah

well I guess we’ll never know. Like you though, I have images in my head of his cutter moving a lot sideways.

I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

by O'sFan21 on Aug 9, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

and 2007 data is incomplete

i don’t think they had the machines set up in all parks then.

The Andy MacPhail plan: "Grow nothing. Buy the pen," (Wieters Weiner 2011).

by birdman on Aug 9, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

The bus continues to remind me of Mr. Boh

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the Orioles' season?

by Andrew_G on Aug 9, 2011 1:17 PM EDT reply actions  

5 up arrows...

Is it just me or does this installment seem more depressing than usual?

"Grow nothing, buy the 'Pen" (Wieters Weiners)

by IggesRule13 on Aug 9, 2011 1:18 PM EDT reply actions  

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