OT: Titov's PAC 12 Pick-o-rama

by Titov on Sep 3, 2011 10:11 AM EDT

Yep, Week 1 is notoriously hard to pick, and for reasons too obvious to belabor here, esp. on Belabor Day weekend. That said, consider two things: (1) hope springs eternal; and (2) hey, I made you $ (or rather R) last yr, didn't I? OK, get that "guy you know in Vegas" on speed dial, here ya go. Oh, and welcome to the Pac 12.

*Minn @ SC (-24)*: Much-touted SC has a lot to prove, but this won’t be the game they do it. Take ‘em at 24 and watch Barkley – the 3rd best QB in the conf – eat a standard Big 10 def for lunch. And belch. If they’re up 21 and stop f#cking playing, I swear will rip out someone’s liver. My hope is it isn’t mine.

*UCLA @ Houston (-3)*: It’s the bizarre HOU no-TE OFF against the Pistol 2.0, w/ Prince back starting (“but both QB’s will play”, groan). There’s a lot at stake on both sides here, starting w/ whether Neuheisel should keep his job. A crapshoot, but take UCLA – mo’ better athletes, nobody hurt yet – to beat the 3.

*Sac St @ OSU (-27)*: Jacquizz is gone, so it’s pretty much up to Katz to get the Punkin Eaters juiced in ‘11. He’s prolly the 4th best QB in the conf, and this could be game one of his breakout year. The Sacs are a good enough Big Sky team, but OSU at 27 is prolly not a stretch; bet it, but nervously.

*San Jose @ Snodfart (-30)*: Easiest call o’ the day. There will be little reason to stop Luck from throwing when they go up by 21, 24 and probably 31. And if SJS puts up more than a dime, Stanford needs to be concerned about D for BCS purposes. Bet accordingly.

*ID St @ Wazoo (-28 ½ )*: ID St is just awful, and WSU is supposed to be much improved—well, it better be, or the 5-32 Wulff is history. I like Tuel and Marquess Wilson enough to take ‘em at 28.5 despite myself (and the Curse of the Palouse). Look, don’t #$%& me the first wk, OK?

*Fresno St @ Cal (-10)*: A lot o’ weirdness here. Cal has been on a 3-yr QB suckfest, and the new guy Maynard is starting his 1st conf game…oh, but he started for 2yrs (’08-’09) at, um, Buffalo. FSU’s Carr is also a rook, and he has some good athletes behind him for this last WAC year. ATTN: this game is called “neutral site”, meaning Candlestick. More like “nauseous site,” y’axe me. (Has Kezar been torn down?) Anyway, go w/ FSU to beat this 10, which for a toss-up is way outta line.

*E-Wash @ U Dub (-18)*: E-Wash is good, and not just FCS-good: Mitchell could prolly play anywhere in the Pac 12…oh, except for the 3 places w/ A-1 draftable QB’s. UW can’t replace Locker; they’ll run a lot, and well, and will certainly win in Seattle. But y’know what? I say not by 18.

*Orygun (-3 ½) @ LSU*: Today’s marquee game, nicely tarnished over the last 2 wks by a bunch of, ahem, “disciplinary problems”, some of them describable as “felonies.” LSU has already started making excuses—which Kelly won’t do, of course (if he didn’t complain on a missed call that took him out of a nat’l championship run…). Dallas makes this a (regional) home game for LSU and they remain a top (SEC) team…and OU should beat 3 ½ handily, after which the whining will become louder.

*Colo @ HA (-7)*: If you think Hawaii is a likely place for CO to break its 17-game away losing streak, you have, as they say, another think coming. And they’re not likely to get close to this 7 either, ‘cause Moniz can really throw ‘em. I liked HA a lot last yr, they’re the WAC faves now and will win this in the 2nd half by 10 or sth.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Regional pick o’ the week: *Boise (-3) at UGa*: I don’t like Boise – it was a joy to watch Kaepernick pull their pants down – and they’re missing key peeps for this. But GA is another SEC-good team; even in ATL they’re going to get their lunch handed to them, and by more than 3.

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For deuces-wild and one-eyed jacks fas: I don't do O/U, as you recall, or gimmick bets generally, but if I DID...

Tuel at 2-1 or sth to do 300/3 would be tempting. Just sayin’.

If you've been away, we still suck. And yes, we willl step outside and say that.

by Titov on Sep 3, 2011 10:32 AM EDT reply actions

Well, you were right to be nervous about Oregon State

by kba26 on Sep 3, 2011 7:29 PM EDT reply actions

They looked like zombies. They looked like Vlad. They looked like Vlad zombies.

Actually, the looked like themselves against Wazoo — WAZOO — last year. They just Do That sometimes. Nobody seems to know why.

If you've been away, we still suck. And yes, we willl step outside and say that.

by Titov on Sep 3, 2011 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions

USC didn't look that great....

I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck

by twistedlogic on Sep 3, 2011 8:48 PM EDT reply actions

Yup. Self-balloon popping. Go up 19-3, go into your We Are SC dance... and stop executing.

As mysterious in their way as OSU.

If you've been away, we still suck. And yes, we willl step outside and say that.

by Titov on Sep 3, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I think they'll be okay though.

Matt Barkley’s a champ. Still early in the year.

I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck

by twistedlogic on Sep 3, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions

5-5. Did I mention Week 1 is notoriously hard to pick? Hope you played the easy ones big...

Minn @ SC (-24): Much-touted SC has a lot to prove, but this won’t be the game they do it. Take ‘em at 24 and watch Barkley – the 3rd best QB in the conf – eat a standard Big 10 def for lunch. And belch. If they’re up 21 and stop f#cking playing, I swear will rip out someone’s liver. My hope is it isn’t mine.

USC 19-17. Way to go, Rubbers. Up by 16, Barley et al. hitting on all cylinders and…that’s it, thanks, we’ll just coast. Watching this was no fun, and I’m gonna miss my liver.

UCLA @ Houston (-3): It’s the bizarre HOU no-TE OFF against the Pistol 2.0, w/ Prince back starting ("but both QB’s will play", groan). There’s a lot at stake on both sides here, starting w/ whether Neuheisel should keep his job. A crapshoot, but take UCLA – mo’ better athletes, nobody hurt yet – to beat the 3.

HOU 38-34. Crapshoot, as advertised, ending a point shy… on a missed PAT – of course.

Sac St @ OSU (-27): Jacquizz is gone, so it’s pretty much up to Katz to get the Punkin Eaters juiced in ‘11. He’s prolly the 4th best QB in the conf, and this could be game one of his breakout year. The Sacs are a good enough Big Sky team, but OSU at 27 is prolly not a stretch; bet it, but nervously.

Sac 29-28. Nervously is right. Another Inexplicable Punkin Home Field Foldo, much like last year’s mystical loss to Wazoo. Beats me. Beats everybody.

San Jose @ Snodfart (-30): Easiest call o’ the day. There will be little reason to stop Luck from throwing when they go up by 21, 24 and probably 31. And if SJS puts up more than a dime, Stanford needs to be concerned about D for BCS purposes. Bet accordingly.

STA 57-3. Hope you took the "easiest call" hint and bet the farm.

ID St @ Wazoo (-28 ½ ): ID St is just awful, and WSU is supposed to be much improved—well, it better be, or the 5-32 Wulff is history. I like Tuel and Marquess Wilson enough to take ‘em at 28.5 despite myself (and the Curse of the Palouse). Look, don’t #$%& me the first wk, OK?

WAZ 64-21. Yup, as expected – except it wasn’t a case of Tuel going all Kaepernick or sth, as I expected – he’s scratched now with a fractured left clavicle. Real shame.

Fresno St @ Cal (-10): A lot o’ weirdness here. Cal has been on a 3-yr QB suckfest, and the new guy Maynard is starting his 1st conf game…oh, but he started for 2yrs (’08-’09) at, um, Buffalo. FSU’s Carr is also a rook, and he has some good athletes behind him for this last WAC year. ATTN: this game is called "neutral site", meaning Candlestick. More like "nauseous site," y’axe me. (Has Kezar been torn down?) Anyway, go w/ FSU to beat this 10, which for a toss-up is way outta line.

36-21 Cal. Way to underwhelm, Dogs. Carr got his lunch et, and nobody else stepped up. Cal might be OK, we’ll see.

E-Wash @ U Dub (-18): E-Wash is good, and not just FCS-good: Mitchell could prolly play anywhere in the Pac 12…oh, except for the 3 places w/ A-1 draftable QB’s. UW can’t replace Locker; they’ll run a lot, and well, and will certainly win in Seattle. But y’know what? I say not by 18.

30-27 Dub. Right on the money here, nicht wahr? Mitchell 39/69 [!] for 473 [!!] /3/2. Whoa…

Orygun (-3 ½) @ LSU: Today’s marquee game, nicely tarnished over the last 2 wks by a bunch of, ahem, "disciplinary problems", some of them describable as "felonies." LSU has already started making excuses—which Kelly won’t do, of course (if he didn’t complain on a missed call that took him out of a nat’l championship run…). Dallas makes this a (regional) home game for LSU and they remain a top (SEC) team…and OU should beat 3 ½ handily, after which the whining will become louder.

LSU 40-27. Wow. Just wow. Kelly had it exactly right at the walk-to-the-halftime-locker room interview: "We need to stop shooting ourselves in the foot." And they super didn’t. The one thing you don’t expect from his teams is 3 giveaway scores. LSU is not gonna say no, and is good enough to contribute a couple scores on their own. Ball game.

Colo @ HA (-7): If you think Hawaii is a likely place for CO to break its 17-game away losing streak, you have, as they say, another think coming. And they’re not likely to get close to this 7 either, ‘cause Moniz can really throw ‘em. I liked HA a lot last yr, they’re the WAC faves now and will win this in the 2nd half by 10 or sth.

HA 34-17. Played to form. The Nobody Loses 18 Aways in a Row myth is exploded. And y’know, HA might be really good…

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Regional pick o’ the week: Boise (-3) at UGa: I don’t like Boise – it was a joy to watch Kaepernick pull their pants down – and they’re missing key peeps for this. But GA is another SEC-good team; even in ATL they’re going to get their lunch handed to them, and by more than 3.

Boise 35-21. Not as close as it sounds, actually. Boise would romp thru the Fabled SEC (and Utah St would be competitive). Just don’t ask sportswriters, since they don’t know why…

If you've been away, we still suck. And yes, we willl step outside and say that.

by Titov on Sep 4, 2011 3:43 PM EDT reply actions

Dude, you're gonna have to have a word bank or something for these abbreviations

I can’t figure out fully 1/3 of the colleges you’re referencing.

"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King

by duck on Sep 4, 2011 7:04 PM EDT reply actions

But if I reveal the Titov-Da Vinci Code, innocent people may die...

which is OK, I guess, but not before they get their bets down!

If you've been away, we still suck. And yes, we willl step outside and say that.

by Titov on Sep 4, 2011 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Not bad for week 1, Teets. Not bad.

I’ll be looking for improved performance next week. And the pick ’em pool finally starts after much waiting and advertisement.

I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck

by twistedlogic on Sep 4, 2011 8:48 PM EDT reply actions

Thx, I think you're right, a .500 Week 1 is actually pretty OK. If I'd done the deserts it coulda been 7-5

but yeah, sure— I coulda bought Big Blue at 15, too…

Week Two: .650 or bust!

If you've been away, we still suck. And yes, we willl step outside and say that.

by Titov on Sep 5, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Week 1's always a pain.

You can go by what you see on paper, but you really don’t know much until the team actually plays.

I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck

by twistedlogic on Sep 5, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Listen to this Sporting News guy harsh on SC's 2nd half-- he's got it just right, I think

http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2011-09-05/alabama-lsu-notre-dame-usc-penn-state

They and OSU have long been particular unfavorites — and I mean Pac 8, 10 and now 12 — as the Disconnect Champs, i.e. you look at their athletes, look at the given opponents, make you’re play…and then throw up your frickin’ hands 2-3 times a year as the spread beats the living crap out them (and your wallet).

A lesser man woulda wised up a long time ago and started betting them both down 2 or 2.5 or sth in the spread calculus. Unfortunately, I’m a greater man, so I keep getting my ass kicked. By them and another team we’ll call “Washington St.”, a name I’m almost afraid to say out loud— like actors and “the Scottish Play.”

Stanford and OR are the other end of the spectrum— consistent long-term spread meeter/beaters, bless their hearts, with much more occasional Big Off-Opread Anomalies.

If you've been away, we still suck. And yes, we willl step outside and say that.

by Titov on Sep 5, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Heh....I actually got that one right.

SC is good, but I figured they wouldn’t win by 24 in their first game. If only I’d used that same brain for the rest of these picks. I did bet against Oregon though. Mostly because I just don’t like them.

I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck

by twistedlogic on Sep 5, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions