Orioles and players exchange arbitration figures
Noon central time today was the deadline for figures to be exchanged for players who are eligible for arbitration. The Orioles have four arbitration-eligible players who did not settle for contracts before this deadline. They are Jeremy Guthrie, Adam Jones, Brad Bergesen and Robert Andino.
For Guthrie, it's his third year of arbitration and final year before free agency, meaning he is in line for the biggest one-year payday after a $5.75M salary in 2011. Guthrie has asked for $10.25M while the O's countered with $7.25M, so they are $3 million apart.
Jones is in his second year of arbitration, due for a raise from his $3.25M 2011 contract. The team filed for $5M and Jones filed for $7.4M, leaving a difference of $2.4M.
Bergesen is eligible for arbitration for the first time, meaning he's not going to get a substantial increase over the major league minimum. He has requested $1.2M and the Orioles offered $800,000. These sides are only $400k apart.
Andino is also entering his first arbitration season, asking for a $1.6M salary where the Orioles believe he is worth $1M.
These salary figures were first reported by either Jon Heyman of CBS or Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Players and teams may settle at any time up until the beginning of the arbitration hearing, each of which will be scheduled some time next month. In an arbitration hearing, the player's representative and the team each have one hour to argue the case for why the player deserves the requested salary, typically using comparisons to other players who performed at a similar level with a similar amount of service time. After the arguments, the three-person arbitration panel can only select one figure or the other.
In recent years, the Orioles have tended to settle before having a hearing. This is advantageous for both sides as the arbitration process can be a cause of future contention: the player is in the room when the team is enumerating the player's faults as reasons for why he is deserving of less money. However, this will be the first time for the process in the Dan Duquette era, and he may have a different philosophy than some of his predecessors with regard to arbitration hearings.
Can anything be gleaned from Duquette's history with the Boston Red Sox for this purpose? In this article, Maureen Mullen of CSN New England notes that the last time the Red Sox went to arbitration was in Duquette's tenure, when they were unable to reach an agreement with RHP Rolando Arrojo. A starter who was traded to Boston in 2000, Arrojo worked mostly in relief for the Sox for two seasons. When his arbitration came up in 2002, he filed for $2.8 million and Boston filed for $1.9 million. So, we know that a decade ago, Duquette was at the helm and could not settle a difference of $900,000.
Considering the difference in 2002 dollars may not be the best comparison, because salaries have inflated in the past decade. For instance, in 2002 the minimum salary in MLB was $300,000 and in 2011 the minimum was $414,000. In that time, the average MLB salary has also increased, from about $2.3 million to about $3.3 million. On the other hand, Arrojo asked for nearly 50% more than Boston offered. Put in those terms, the O's arbitration offers look this way: Andino's asking price is 60% more than offered, Bergesen's is 50% more than offered, Jones' is 48% more, and Guthrie's is 41% more.
Does any of this matter at all? Maybe not. Duquette's been out of the game for nearly a decade, and the game done changed. Or maybe the game's the same: just got more fierce.
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I think the midpoints would be fair for all of these guys.
Whether the people who actually have to negotiate will see it that way, no idea.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Jan 17, 2012 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
$10.25? Really Guts? Good luck with that.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
If I understand arb rules correctly,
Guts believes his free agent value is about $12.8M per year, which puts him near Mark Buehrle who just signed for $14.5 per year. Guts seems more like Kyle Lohse ($10.25 per year) or Jake Westbrook ($8.25 per year) than Buehrle. Guts will have to make the case that he’s better than Kuroda who just signed for around $10.5M to land $10.25M.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
It's a negotiating tactic
The player puts out a price much higher than they know they’ll get. The team puts a price lower than they know the player will settle for. Then they negotiate to a midpoint and hope that if they can’t make a deal, the amount they put out there isn’t so out of line that the other side will be guaranteed to win.
Sure, it’s a negotiating tactic, but it won’t work in Gut’s case if they go to trial. And as a starting point in negotiation, I’m sure DD has his price which won’t be affected by what Camp Guts says. He’ll go to trial if his price isn’t met because he knows he’ll win.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
In other words,
the arb figure presented by the player needs to stand a reasonable chance in winning in arb in order to present a credible threat in negotiations (and vice versa). $7.25M is more of a credible threat of winning than $10.25M.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
In fact,
If DD doesn’t care about alienating his player, he should just cut off all negotiations now. His $7.25M will win easily in arbitration so there’s no advantage of negotiating more besides keeping your player happy.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
But in the case of Guts,
who has been incredibly loyal to the O’s considering goddamned everything, I think you have to show some mutual respect and negotiate with him, even if you don’t intend on raising your price by very much. Let’s also keep in mind how much better his W/L would be if he had gotten some run support.
Robert Andino, let me buy you a beer.
I don't know how much weight loyalty shown to the pre-DD O's will carry with DD.
Probably these guys will all settle because that’s how it goes in baseball now. But we’re dealing with a new, mostly unknown quantity as GM, so who knows.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Jan 18, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
On the other hand
The Indians tried to pass Guthrie through waivers and the Orioles gave him his shot. Someone else would have too - he was a first round choice - but still it was the O’s who did. Loyalty works both ways.
Of course,
I didn’t say DD wouldn’t negotiate with him. I’m just trying to point out that that his arb figure is a bad one because it undermines his negotiating position since it won’t win in arbitration.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I added a few paragraphs about a footnote from Duquette's time in Boston, and whether or not that augurs anything here.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Jan 17, 2012 8:42 PM EST reply actions
Don't understand
The reference to the game possibly changing. They’re salary negotiations. They were a problem in Babe Ruth’s day - when he was a pitcher. If there’s anything about the arbitration process that’s changed, I’m sure it wouldn’t take long to find out.
I’m used to revolvers, man, .38 don’t jam…
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Jan 17, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions

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