Transaction Scorecard: O's Sign CI Wilson Betemit, release SP Rick Vanden Hurk
by j.q. higgins on Jan 24, 2012 8:22 PM EST
in News & Rumors
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PrintIn a surprise move late Monday, the Orioles inked supersub Wilson Betemit. On Monday, it was announced that Betemit's contract was a guaranteed two year deal for $2.75 million total with a vesting option for a third year worth $3.25 million on its own. According to the AP, the third year vests with 700 plate appearances over the first two years of the contract. To create the roster space for Betemit, the Orioles parted ways with the Dutch flyball artist VandenHurk over whom no ink has been spilled as of yet.
Aaron Gleeman, HardballTalk: Betemit is expected to be the Orioles’ primary designated hitter and that might seem like a stretch at first glance, but he’s hit a combined .290 with 21 homers and an .838 OPS in 181 games during the past two seasons. His career has been limited by the lack of a clear home defensively, but when given a chance for regular playing time Betemit has almost always hit well and at the very least the switch-hitter would be a nice part-time player for $1.5 million per season.
Josh Land, Carroll County Times: For much of last season, the Baltimore Orioles were hindered by having several one-dimensional players clogging up key positions and the bench. This year, new executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette has put an emphasis on changing that and improving the club's ability to get on base. The Orioles' latest acquisition provides help in both areas, as the team signed the versatile Wilson Betemit Tuesday.
Daniel Moroz, Camden Crazies: The signing seems like OK value, but giving at bats to an older guy without too much upside doesn't seem like what should be Plan A for the Orioles in 2012. Maybe if Betemit plays well, the O's can get something for him at the trade deadline, I guess.
Adam Bernacchio, MLB Daily Dish: Betemit can't field a lick, but the guy is a switch-hitter who can hit. Over the past two seasons, Betemit has posted a .191 ISO, 10 percent BB Percentage, and 21 HR's in 674 PA's, so that's a pretty good sample size of what the guy could do if given the opportunity. [This was actually posted in a Jan. 9 column on "buy low" free agents.]
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I thought signing Betemit was a good idea.
But 2 years with an option that vests if he’s healthy? I’m not so sure about that.
i dont think it's just about being healthy...
it’s about being productive enough to warrant getting 700 PAs over that time. He’s never combined for 700 PAs over two consecutive seasons in his career. If he’s actually good enough to get it, I dont think we’ll be so concerned about that 3 mil.
Well, if he is slated to be to be the primary DH this year,
he could pick up 600 PAs in this season alone. They could hide him on the bench if he hits poorly, but he would have to be pretty bad. Vlad managed to pick up 590 PAs in 2011 despite hitting to a 95 wRC+ and missing some time due to injury. Betemit doesn’t come with Vlad’s pedigree, but I still wouldn’t expect them to bench him unless he’s downright awful.
I don't see him getting benched...
but maybe he evolves into a more platoon role after starting the season as the “primary” DH. Unless he’s playing up to his 2010 level, I have a hard time seeing him getting anywhere close to 600 PAs. But bringing up Vlad remind me that anything is possible with the Orioles.
I think how well Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds play on defense will play a part too. I could see either one taking away ABs at DH with Andino at 3b and Antonelli at 2b.
Why don't you see him getting benched?
It’s a tiny investment – if it’s not working out there’s zero pressure to keep him in the lineup.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
i think I explained that wrong
If it’s not working out, i absolutely see him getting benched.
I was talking more about if he’s somewhere between 2010 and the rest of his career, I would see him become more of a situational/platoon type player than the everyday DH
Yeah, you're probably right.
Vesting options in general just worry me. It still freaks me out that we’ll end up paying Kevin Gregg $6M in 2013 if he finished 52 games in 2012. It’s not likely to happen with JJ set as the closer, but it still worries me.
Crazy at Camden Crazies
Older guy? No upside?
And the inevitable “flip him at the deadline”?
He’s 30, which is not that old. He’s quite good against right handed pitching. He gets on base. We just got younger, better, and much cheaper at DH over the past year.
On the other hand, Luke Scott, who’s rehabbing from a serious injury, may not come all the way back, and actually is older, will make more than twice as much in one year as Betemit will in two.
I could be wrong, but I think I see the input of that Loyola U statistical/financial analyst Duquette hired.
Well...
He’s 30, which is on the wrong side of 28 (the average peak age). But it’s possible that Betemit could peak late.
And yeah, you probably flip him if he hits well. It’s very unlikely that Betemit will be around when the Orioles become respectable again, so it makes sense to trade him if a team offers a nice prospect for him.
But just because he is two years older than the average peak age doesn’t mean he isn’t going to be as productive as he was in the past, on the caveat that he is used primarily against right handers.
This is not about you, but if there was as much flipping at the trade deadline as people on message boards want to see, they could open an IHOP franchise at OPCY.
Don’t know what you mean by “respectable”, but that could come as early as this year. Winning more games puts more people in the seats, which raises the income that can be spent on the team.
I understand your argument,
but we really can’t expect much out of him since he’s likely peaked. And the O’s aren’t the first team to try to capitalize on his splits. He has 472 career PAs vs. LHP, compared to 1472 vs. RHP. I agree with you that it’s a good pickup, but I don’t think there’s much upside in a 30 year old DH who has been a league average hitter (career 104 wRC+) despite spending most of his time in a platoon role.
Yes, winning will raise revenue. But I don’t think that winning 74 games instead of 73 is going to make a significant difference. Trading a useful player for prospects, on the other hand, can make a big difference in future win totals. That kind of move can help us go from, say, 88 wins to 91 wins and a playoff spot. This is going to be especially relevant when the league introduces the second Wild Card spot.
I don’t think we’re as far from 88 wins as you do, but WB has to be put in context. Barring serious injury, we will get better production from LF, 1B, and DH than we did last year, even with the roster as is. That will also have a carryon effect and make the rest of the lineup better.
The pitching additions, the subtraction of Arrieta’s bone spur (which he should have done last year) and the possibility that Matusz will more likely resemble the BM of late 2010 than 2011 makes me think so.
People don’t like to admit it, but normal production from Roberts and Scott, and a reasonable step forward from Matusz and Arrieta, and we’d have had a better than .500 record last year, even with Vlad and Lee.
It's not just me.
I linked to this yesterday: http://claydavenport.com/PROJHOME.shtml 73 wins there.
Listen, I want to see an 88-win Orioles team as much as the next guy here, but we won 69 games last year. That’s a difference of 19 wins. Sure, that’s possible, but only if this happens: Wieters breaks out ( +3 wins over 2011 production at catcher position), Jones breaks out ( +3), Arrieta breaks out ( +2), Britton breaks out ( +2), Reimold plays full time and breaks out ( +3), Reynolds remembers how to field ( +2), Markakis comes back to form ( +2), Hardy stays healthy ( +1), Roberts is healthy and productive ( +1).
Yeah, two or three or four of those things could happen in 2012, but you want to believe that all of those things will happen? And even then, we’re only an 88 win team and we probably miss the playoffs.
You could run through that list and replace any number of things (sub in Tillman for Arrieta, Bergesen for Britton, Bell for Reimold, etc.), but I don’t think that it makes it any more likely. I really just can’t see 88 wins in this team.
Well, what I said was that we’re closer to 88 than 73 if things go well. Wieters and Jones don’t even have to break out, just be as last year. Again, we’re already better at LF, DH, and 1B than we were last year (possible exception of Davis at first, but he should be). The key is if the pitchers go deeper into games, including Matusz. There’s no reason Arrieta shouldn’t be able to do that, and Britton as well. It is not out of the question that Reimold is the Reimold of his rookie year, and perhaps a little better. Does that statistical analysis factor in that Britton is unlikely to have those two extremely ugly outings of last year? (7 runs in 1/3 inning in one, wasn’t it?)
I’d be surprised if Roberts plays again.
That was just back-of-the-envelope kinda stuff.
But each of those numbers is the number of wins that would need to be added in 2012 to the 2011 total.
For example, the O’s got 4.1 fWAR from the catcher position in 2011. Wieters was good for 4.3 WAR, while Tatum and Fox each subtracted 0.1 WAR. If we assume that Teagarden will be replacement in 2012, then Wieters we’re expecting Wieters to put up a 7 win season. Yes, that could happen. God, I hope it does happen. But to reach the magic number of 88 (which is just a benchmark, as your referenced), we need to see so many of those breakouts.
Congratulations
For an excellent job of cherry picking the lesser point
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