Jeremy Guthrie traded to the Rockies for two players not likely to be any better than Jeremy Guthrie
by Stacey on Feb 6, 2012 9:40 AM EST
in News & Rumors
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PrintIt's being reported by the Baltimore Sun, MASN, and Jeremy Guthrie himself on Twitter: our defacto ace and fan favorite Jeremy Guthrie has been traded to the Colorado Rockies for pitchers Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom.
Ok, so the first thing is that I understand the front office doesn't have the luxury of thinking like a fan when it comes to making trades. As a fan, I'm sad that Jeremy Guthrie is gone. He's a good baseball player and a nicer human, and he's been good to the city of Baltimore in his time here. But even I know that he most likely wasn't going to be on the next good Orioles team, so if a good deal could be made for him, it should have been.
The question is: is this a good deal?
Jason Hammel is 29 years old and started his career with the Devil Rays, but has spent the last three seasons in Colorado. He's pitched about 170 innings in each of the last three seasons, and in 2009 and 2010 was pretty good, putting up an fWAR of 3.9 in each of the years. His ERA was inflated quite a bit over his FIP in those years, but took an opposite turn in 2011. After a poor showing in the rotation, Hammel was demoted to the bullpen on August 20th and made seven appearances for the rest of the season.
Hammel isn't a horrible pitcher, that's for certain. He'll be getting out of Coors Field which could help him, and he could conceivably be productive for the Orioles this year. Will he be as productive as Guthrie? Sure, maybe, if he can pitch like he did a few seasons ago. And he won't be a free agent until 2014 so there's an extra year than the O's would get from Guthrie.
The other piece of the trade is Matt Lindstrom. When the season begins, Lindstrom will be 32 years old. He is a serviceable bullpen arm and nothing more. His current contract has a $4M option for 2013, or else he'll be a free agent after this season.
So, is it a good deal? I think as far as strict exchange of talent goes, it's not awful. But that's not what the Orioles need. If this deal ends up making the Orioles a better team, it will only be a marginal difference and it will be short term. The Orioles need to make changes that will help them down the road, not maybe for this season. I have no way of knowing if a Guthrie trade could bring back something that would help the Orioles long term, but if it's determined that the best you can do for him is this deal right here, then I wish they would have just let Guthrie stay an Oriole.
We don't have much as Orioles fans, but we have a few players we love to root for. Guthrie is one of them, and getting rid of him for this return just doesn't feel right.
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Way to harsh my buzz, O's
Why do I still root for this team again?
Guts, you are so awesome. You will be missed more than you know. I hope you get some playoff action out in CO. I’m sorry you have to pitch in that ballpark, though.
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
by daveh873 on Feb 6, 2012 9:50 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
What a punch to the gut...
I hate you DD.
Please come back Koji, we miss you.
by J(O's)elskIL on Feb 6, 2012 10:00 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
What a horrible, horrible way to start the week.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
by zknower on Feb 6, 2012 10:01 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
That fWAR number for Hammel doesn't look horrible
There’s a chance this could actually work out, you know.
Lindstrom’s a non-entity as far as the O’s. O’s have about 6 more just like him signed over the winter.
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
Proud member of Trainyard Sleepers, BECW: S2
We're gonna win, you know. Stats lie.
I Disagree about Lindstrom
He throws in the high 90’s and has had three above average seasons. I think he instantly becomes our second best bullpen arm behind JJ. And again, he could bring a decent return at the deadline.
by TheTrapezoidConspiracy on Feb 6, 2012 10:38 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
This.
He’s good. but he’s a bullpen arm. Unless you’re Mariano Rivera, it’s hard to stand out. But he probably is the second best relief pitcher now.
Please come back Koji, we miss you.
by J(O's)elskIL on Feb 6, 2012 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
I agree
...While you're waiting for moments that never come.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Feb 6, 2012 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t think arm power really matters. It’s the ability to get outs. As long as he can strike em out I couldn’t care less how fast he’s throwing.
Editor at Baltimore Beatdown - SB Nation Baltimore Ravens Blog
A.K.A "Baltimore Warrior"
by Zachary Beard on Feb 6, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
I call bs
Chad Bradford
Editor at Baltimore Beatdown - SB Nation Baltimore Ravens Blog
A.K.A "Baltimore Warrior"
by Zachary Beard on Feb 6, 2012 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
I still don't get it
doesn’t management want to keep the fans. Saving a couple of million can’t be worth alienating your fan base.
by dan o'hare on Feb 6, 2012 10:05 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Based on the reaction from outside the Orioles
Doesn’t seem like we’re overvaluing him either, no one really understands this one
by tjk on Feb 6, 2012 10:12 AM EST via mobile reply actions
New GM, same ole garbage moves.
Sometimes I feel like they do this stuff just so they can say they did something. Whether productive or not.
I'd Have Preferred Prospects, But There's Some Upside Here
And if these guys perform decently, the extra years of team control could mean a higher return at the trade deadline than Guthrie would fetch. It’s not great, and it hurts to see Guts go, but I say wait and see.
by TheTrapezoidConspiracy on Feb 6, 2012 10:19 AM EST via mobile reply actions
LOVE your handle.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
This seems really awful to me. Trading Guthrie for prospects would be one thing, but this feels like trading just to trade.
Asian relief pitchers. Anyone? Anyone? no? ok….
Editor at Baltimore Beatdown - SB Nation Baltimore Ravens Blog
A.K.A "Baltimore Warrior"
by Zachary Beard on Feb 6, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
only updside
is that we could trade one of both of these guys to a contender and get something in return later – RPs are a hot commodity at the trade deadline…we obviously weren’t able to get a good enough deal for Guthrie at the last deadline so this was better than keeping him in his contract year.
Not in love with it, but it’s a move that could pay off. Better than trading for someone like, say, Kevin Milwood.
Best OF in baseball - Markakis, Jones, Reimold, and Scott
I'm home sick today.
Can barely lift my head off the pillow, and this is the first thing I see when I wake up. Guts was by far my favorite current Oriole.
I hope he has terrific success there and the fans appreciate him as much as we did.
I’m going back to sleep now. maybe when I wake up DD will have retroactively traded Cal for Coco Crisp.
"We weren’t playing for the playoffs, but we were playing for pride, and we showed it tonight."
ARGH.
I can’t say much as to the baseball side of this trade, but I am stunned and sad at seeing Guts traded just as a fan. :-( It won’t be the same without him.
I had to check my calendar
When I saw this on twitter, my first thought was: “April Fools? Already?”
"I could no more abandon my Orioles than I could repudiate my family, or my native heath, or my own childhood—even though I know it is a devotion that can now bring only grief." - David Bentley Hart
by Gorilla Bird on Feb 6, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
The same but younger for the starter
and another arm for the bullpen, which will likely get worn out by July.
Putting fan favorites aside, I rate this trade a solid – Meh
seriously?
Cmon, man. Trading Guts and not getting a single prospect in return is same old O’s. Silver lining: he’s a FA next year.
Miss ya already, Guts.
by Luke E on Feb 6, 2012 11:06 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Maybe - Hammels does alright
Guts gets lit up as a flyball pitcher at coors. And we get guts back for cheaper next season.
this makes absolutely no sense
I’m all for trading Guthrie for the future — I find it hard to believe that the O’s couldn’t find a single upside minor-leaguer available, anywhere, from any team needing a solid mid-rotation starter. (I’d think Boston would happily part with a B/B+ guy for Guthrie, for example.)
Hammel was a non-tender candidate, and Lindstrom is just another hard-throwing reliever in his 30s. Hard to imagine either of these guys will return more in value at the trade deadline than Guthrie himself even if they hit their 90th-plus percentile projections. And Hammel, of course, joins an organization with 11 guys just like him.
This makes absolutely no sense unless Guthrie is seriously hurt and this was the best they could do before his arm falls off.
Bad trade
When are the Orioles going to actually rebuild. During the last several years, management has missed three obvious opportunities to trade for prospects: Roberts, Scott, and Guthrie. All three are gone with almost nothing in return.
DD’s motto, like those before him is .“500 or bust.” I am losing interest.
it's very possible that nobody was offering worthwhile prospects for Guthrie
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
you don't think the Red Sox would have parted with a single guy
say, Sean Coyle or Bryce Brentz — for Guthrie? I think they would have jumped at the chance.
DD said no one offered prospects.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I am curious to know what was the best offer for Guthrie that MacPhail turned down back in July.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
Since he was asking for a major league ready starter (BAHAHA), I'm not sure if anybody even offered a prospect.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
birdman, that's a good point - MacPhail wasn't even asking for the right things.
So that makes this question even harder to answer.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
I am bummed.
My quick reaction to this trade is that if the best you can get for Guthrie is two guys who are older than me (28) then you might as well just keep Guthrie. Plus, you know… I liked Guthrie.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 11:25 AM EST reply actions
Read trade, was sad.
Read Guts’ reaction on teh twitter, pushing threshold for depressive episode.
Read Schmuck’s joke about not having to cut AJ & SHJ for the 39th and 40th best players on the roster, laughed. Shocked at laughter resulting from Schmuck joke.
Still pretty bummed, curious to see how it turns out for all parties involved.
I have neglected the Wafers.
Maybe feeling overly sensitive.
Felt like implied condescension/piling on from an analyst rather than taking the time to post in a thoughtful way.
Having a “we can make those jokes – too soon for you” moment.
I have neglected the Wafers.
he said
“I don’t know [what Duquette is doing]. I do feel bad for O’s fan.”
Your cannonball trajectory, it always gave me hope
And it was in reply to a what do you think DD is doing question.
I’m having a knee-jerk reaction to the whole “o’s are such a joke we’ll just respond in a feigned pity party without any meaningful content” analysis or reaction. It feels dismissive. It’s becoming increasingly annoying over the failed years. Some days I’m numb to it, today I haven’t been.
If he feels bad for a fanbase losing a fan favorite – that’s one thing, and I’m ok with that. If it’s a I feel bad because it’s a bad move, then elaborate a little on what makes it so bad. Because there was no specifier, it tweaked some defensiveness.
I have neglected the Wafers.
You want him to elaborate on Twitter?
That’s not really the point of Twitter.
by Stacey on Feb 6, 2012 12:03 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I'm fine with disagreeing on this.
I understand how Twitter works and wasn’t asking for a dissertation. An extra 20 characters would have tempered my reaction.
I have neglected the Wafers.
plus, it's keith fucking law.
there’s a history there.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
you disagree?
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
I do not understand why
some people take any national analyst’s opinions so personally. In particular, with Keith Law, I know a lot of people got upset last winter when he crushed Andy MacPhail’s spending spree – and for which he was basically completely correct – and then in November when he said something to the effect of anyone taking the GM job in B’more to need to have zero self respect.
Which is really harsh towards the Orioles. But how can anyone say the Orioles don’t deserve to be really harsh to. And, with that last bit at least, I thought the folks complaining were missing the point: WHY did Law say such a horrible thing? What information did he glean from the interviewing process that made him so totally dump on the organization?
Your cannonball trajectory, it always gave me hope
by Andrew_G on Feb 6, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It's not that Law isn't a smart dude, he is
But the self respect comment was unprofessional. And you know, that says something to me.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Feb 6, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
because it wasn't phrased in a "nice" way is the beef.
which is I agree with.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Saying something like “long time assistant GM refuses to interview for vacant Orioles GM position” basically says it all. I don’t want to make a mountain out of a mole hill, but I think the self respect comment lacks perspective.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Feb 6, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Well, basically the suggestion that the person that would prove to be Duquette lacks any self respect is essentially a comment on his character. It’s cool if you or I were to say it, but we don’t get paid to make opinions on baseball.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Feb 6, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Guys make comments on the character of players and coaches all the time
Why should front office people be any different?
I don’t know what to tell you other than I thought the comment crossed the line. Essentially, I think saying “Trading Guthrie for Hammel is a stupid move” is different than “Duquette is stupid.” If I were paid to work for ESPN, to be a professional, I would shy away from commenting on someone’s intellect or character, which is what Law did IMO.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Feb 6, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I don't have a problem with this point.
HM is right in that analysts make comments about character all the time. For example, work ethic, IMO a character issue, is a common component of a scouting report. But this isn’t a work ethnic type of comment about DD. It would be like Law doing a scouting report and saying a player “treats other people like crap,” type of comment. That type of comment isn’t part of a professional scouting report.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Except they do say things like that
“Has a bad attitude. Isn’t a team player. Doesn’t command respect in the locker room. Immature.” So on and so forth. All the time.
Team player is related to playing field though.
Immature and doesn’t command respect in the locker room aren’t usually part of Law’s scouting report. In fact, he hates that shit (see Bryce Harper).
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I'm not talking specifically about Law though
I’m talking about the media in general. He’s criticizing by saying it’s unprofessional, while the profession often goes out of their way to highlight character issues.
yeah, another unprofessional comment.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I’m talking about the media in general.
Yeah, I would say those comments are unprofessional. Saying a prospect is immature is useless and no different than saying a prospect is a pun hound off the field. Neither comment says anything relevant and is unnecessary character as assassination.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Yet they get thrown around constantly and are rarely ciriticized
Especially around here. So my point is, why is Keith Law doing it specifically onerous?
If somebody wrote unprofessional remarks about an O’s player, they would get criticized heavily.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
there was plenty of people who expressed dislike regarding luke scott here.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Not to mention, that was a profile piece where personal aspects are expected. if jon moresi tweeted, “adam jones is self-important, pun hound,” people would saying WTF here.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
do you mean poon hound?
if someone called me a pun-hound, I think I’d take it as a compliment.
by PhilR8 on Feb 6, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
someone who chases the muff around.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
sorry my bad
i have tons of work today which means i’m less careful here.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
It seems like there are an awful lot of arbitrary exceptions
If publicly calling someone a bad guy is unprofessional in one medium, it should be unprofessional in all mediums. Whether it be an article, a tweet, or in sky writing.
The context and goal of tweet versus a feature article is different.
Personally, I don’t treat them as the same.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
that's one way to put it.
another way to put it is that the purpose of a feature article is examine the off-the-field personality of a player.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
ok, that's fair
I don’t agree, I thought it clearly read as hyperbole. But maybe he didn’t mean it to, I don’t know.
My bigger issue is that people hate on his specific language in a way that lets them dismiss his opinion entirely. And that is obviously not a great way of getting analysis.
Your cannonball trajectory, it always gave me hope
Agreed on the latter point, and it is true, maybe I’m missing the hyperbole on the first part. It just seemed like a little much, even for twitter!
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Feb 6, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
It's fine to criticize.
but it’s not fine to be disrespectful, as a member of the national media. It’s just not ok.
Tommy hunter still sucks!
yeah, it was one comment... if there are other example, fine.
but, otherwise, this comment has gotten a lot of play.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
this is very true
So I’ll stop being pissed about it. Soon :)
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Feb 6, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
there are plenty of examples
and until he can write without such a huge mesaure of self-importance and snarkiness, I will continue to dismiss his analysis. Because I don’t trust analysis that comes across as so relentlessly ginned up to get ratings.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
He's a douche but that doesn't mean he isn't right
It’s not the message it’s the messenger.
He’s such a smug jerk when he writes and speaks.
But, he was right on about MacPhail’s moves last season.
So who’s the number #1 now? Britton? Matusz? Ross Grimsley? What a clusterfuck.
"Have a good time...all the time." - Viv Savage
While I'm pretty bummed about this
I have to say, I don’t see a lot of teams lining up to send prospects to the O’s for 200 innings at $8MM.
Guts: So long, buddy. Keep the ball down. Signed, Your Posse
Which people claim that their team can defeat our professional football squad?
by CoachOfEarl on Feb 6, 2012 11:37 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
thank you
are the O’s so bad that Guthrie is seen as elite by fans!!??
No
nobody has ever called him elite. you’re overreaching.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
Underrated, often
Elite, no
Which people claim that their team can defeat our professional football squad?
Why are you thanking him?
He’s in no way agreeing with your ridiculous assessments that Guthrie is terrible.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Okay...
I’ve brought it up about ten thousand times in the past month, but again, I really have no idea what DD’s overall strategy for this team is when it comes to pitching. Offensively, I get it. He upgraded the bench with serviceable backups, and will be giving guys a chance to prove themselves in starting roles. But the pitching staff? I appreciate depth, but we now have a whopping eleven guys on the 40 man with MLB starting pitching experience, none of whom stand out above the others. Many will surely be relegated to the bullpen, but doing that with young guys will derail their development. Some non-prospects that we’ve traded for (Eveland, Hunter, maybe even Hammel) could even be starting the season in AAA, which… at that point WTF are we trading for?
I can only assume DD is going to let all of these guys duke it out for starting spots, promising nothing to any of them. And after that, any of these late 20s-early 30s pitchers that exceed expectations will probably be dealt at the trade deadline for prospects. So in that sense, flipping Guthrie for two pitchers doubles our chances at cashing in at the deadline.
In summary, if all this shit isn’t just a big set up for a bunch of moves for prospects at the trade deadline, then I am completely lost.
...While you're waiting for moments that never come.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Feb 6, 2012 11:42 AM EST reply actions
Despair springs eternal.
Please come back Koji, we miss you.
by J(O's)elskIL on Feb 6, 2012 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
Kinda feels like "getting prospects at the deadline" never quite works out.
Though of course, there exists the possibility that DD will target different guys than MacPhail did, of course, and there won’t be this insistence on “major league-ready talent” which really means “guys who have had a crack at the major leagues, failed and are expendable on a good team”.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
That's very true. I feel like DD is much more inclined to wheel and deal than MacPhail was
MacPhail made some good trades, but the Buh-dard and Miggy trades were trades that had to happen. They were no-brainers. He was hesitant to pull the trigger in other instances, like with Guthrie at the last trade deadline. DD on the other hand just traded a fan favorite in a trade that didn’t really need to happen for a questionable return in talent. He’s got that reputation for being kind of cold, and I feel like he will not hesitate to get whatever he can get his hands on at the trade deadline as far as young talent goes.
...While you're waiting for moments that never come.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Feb 6, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Fuck you DD
I’m a Rockies fan now
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 6, 2012 11:50 AM EST reply actions
Let's not get melodramatic here.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't say I wasn't an Orioles fan anymore.
The Rockies can by my new NL West team.
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 6, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
My Initial reaction...
…was WTF?
But the trade does look like a win, even if ever so slight. My hope is that Rick Peterson sees something in Hammel that can fix his off year last year and get him back to is 2009/2010 self.
Realistically I have to think that Guthrie wouldn’t bring much prospect-wise in return. Hammel/Lindstrom can probably bring more.
As far as actual pitching coming here goes, I guess at least we got more GB% in the trade. Now we just have to hope they hit everything to Hardy.
I'm not confused brother! I just took picture of my face, and it's deffo not my confused face. - Waj
by Christopher Claxton on Feb 6, 2012 11:59 AM EST reply actions
Why would a team give up prospects for a 29 year old starter with a 4.99 career ERA?
Or a 31 year old reliever, no matter what results he’s getting?
The reliever market gets you Tommy Hunter, Chris Davis and Pedro Strop.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
I'm hoping DD would target a very young, diamond in the rough low A player in a deadline move rather than failed AAAA people
Kind of like you were saying above, let’s hope his targets are different. Still not gonna fix the team anytime soon, but it’s a ever so small step in the right direction. If we can flip a half dozen 30 years olds off our current pitching staff for a half dozen 21 year olds that are really raw and not yet on any top prospect lists, but have at least a few standout tools and some upside, I’d be okay with that.
...While you're waiting for moments that never come.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Feb 6, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
I'll believe it when I see it.
DD’s offseason trades have not shown any inclination towards wanting to acquire diamonds in the rough of the low minors.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
stdop...
more please.
"Three thousand years of beautiful tradition,from Moses to Sandy Koufax,YOU'RE GODDAMN RIGHT I'M LIVING IN THE FUCKING PAST!"- Walter Sobchak
by j.q. higgins on Feb 6, 2012 12:40 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
bah...
STROP!
"Three thousand years of beautiful tradition,from Moses to Sandy Koufax,YOU'RE GODDAMN RIGHT I'M LIVING IN THE FUCKING PAST!"- Walter Sobchak
by j.q. higgins on Feb 6, 2012 12:41 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I'm okay with this.
I mean, I love Guthrie as an Oriole, and because he seems like a great guy. But teams aren’t going to want to give up much for a 33 year old with one year left before FA. We get back a younger starter with some upside (and some concerns), and a power reliever.
I’ll sure miss Guts, though.
by Bad Horse on Feb 6, 2012 12:04 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Really frustrating
I hate to see Guts go, and it’s doubly frustrating because he was one of the few somewhat valuable commodities we had to (re)start the never-ending rebuild of this team. But what we got was more of the damn same — players who aren’t good enough to make a difference.
I get the need for more depth to avoid a complete disaster like last year, but there’s not much upside in any of the moves that DD has made - they all seem like (thankfully) low-cost moves to avoid sucking any more than we have to in the short to medium-term, but nothing to build for the long term. That’s just a recipe for continuing to suck for the next five years, just like we have for the past fourteen.
At this point, it’s looking like the guys we thought would be our core, like Jones and Markakis (not that they’ve developed into the players we hoped, so they’re part of the problem, to an extent), aren’t even going to be part of the next good Orioles team. We’ll be lucky if Wieters is — maybe if everything plays out perfectly from here on out and Machado and Bundy and a couple out of the currently struggling group of young pitchers develop into stars, but how much confidence does anyone have in that happening? And in the meantime DD doesn’t seem to be doing anything to add to that potential future core to increase the odds of enough of them panning out. He’s just bringing in bridge guys.
I’ll never give up on the Orioles, but I’ve got to say that I don’t have much hope, and I’m already in emotionally defensive, hope for the best, expect the worst mode at what should be the most optimistic time of year.
by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Feb 6, 2012 12:04 PM EST reply actions
Whoops! Strikeout above was unintentional
I guess I should avoid dashes, and use preview.
by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Feb 6, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
I really don't see much benefit
in acquiring all the crappy guys we can. Trading a guy that everyone loves and is a half-decent ballplayer for two guys nobody’s heard of and who don’t seem to be quite as good? Where’s the upside? It’s not like we got any prospects. None of these guys are going to be on the next good team, and frankly, they won’t be traded for the guys who are going to be on the next good team. We trade a C for a C- and a D+, expecting to flip one of them for an A?
Tommy hunter still sucks!
I really do think we should remove the "guy that everyone loves" thing from the equation
I absolutely want the front office operating with ruthless business sense rather than fan emotion.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
This
DD is just the man for that, that’s for sure. But until I see the big picture, the method behind this madness, I’m scared.
...While you're waiting for moments that never come.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Feb 6, 2012 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
when you're not improving the team one bit
then yeah, the player people like has more value then the shitbirds brought in.
Tommy hunter still sucks!
I don't actually think that's true
and I hope that DD doesn’t either.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Sure it does, it ruins any goodwill with fans and they are less likely to go to games.
So, less money.
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 6, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think there's really any validity to that.
Guthrie is almost certainly revenue neutral.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
agreed
whenever we start talking about “player X will bring people to games” I always just fall back on two undeniable truths: people already do not go to games, and people will only start coming to games when the team wins. Who is on that winning team does not matter.
Your cannonball trajectory, it always gave me hope
by Andrew_G on Feb 6, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rather
If attendance falls this year, it’s because that many more people have given up on the team, not because Jeremy Guthrie was traded.
...While you're waiting for moments that never come.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Feb 6, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Right, no one goes to the games to see HIM.
But, he was a fan favorite and after this trade I imagine more people are going to just say “screw this” and not go to Orioles games. Not because they won’t see Guthrie start but because the FO is dealing their favorite players for no return. It just builds up more anger in the already tiny fanbase.
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 6, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
That may be the sentiment among some small subset of fans right now
I don’t think it will be come opening day and as Adnrew points out above – people will come when they start winning regardless of whether Guthrie is on the team.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Well in that case, this deal doesn't help much either.
It might a little tiny bit, but I doubt it does.
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 6, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
The one bright spot I try to take away from all of this is the depth
It is just absolutely inexcusable to have Jo-Jo Reyes and Mitch Atkins starting games for you. At least a few of these guys have to put together competent enough seasons to at least give us a shot at the possibility of winning most games
...While you're waiting for moments that never come.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Feb 6, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
Yep
It is worth noting that Guthrie was pretty much this kind of guy when we acquired him, so that’s about the absolute best-case scenario for Hammel right there.
by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Feb 6, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
Guthrie was 28 when the Orioles acquired him, but he had less than 40 MLB innings.
There is something of a track record for Hammel and Lindstrom.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
It's definitely not identical
so it’s fair to emphasize the differences. Hammel is more established, and thus cost more in terms of talent: Guthrie was just a waiver claim who hadn’t gotten a real shot in Cleveland despite being a fairly well-regarded prospect (though somewhat older due to having gone on misson after college). So Guthrie was even more of a gamble (in both downside and upside terms) than Hammel. But from a broad perspective, it seems like both were/are attempts to build depth and add some salary certainty with middling, perhaps under-regarded players with a few years of team control remaining. I still think being as good as Guthrie was is pretty much the best we can hope for from Hammel. The collapse in strikeouts last year is really worrying.
by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Feb 6, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
What a bunch of bullshit
DD better do something to make this make sense, like now.
by VB O's Guy on Feb 6, 2012 12:07 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I was never that big of a Guts fan and was hoping for him to be traded for the past few seasons
but I don’t know why the O’s are in the business of acquiring anybody over the age of 24. I understand that they probably couldn’t get any stud prospects for him, but I’d have preferred 3-4 20 year olds with live arms or quick bats that are projects or something to this.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Guthrie talks to Roch about the trade
I’d excerpt it, but just go read it. It’s so full of win. I practically teared up a little
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
Garbage
I understand why it makes sense to trade Guthrie, but I don’t understand why it makes sense to trade Guthrie for Hammel and Lindstrom. I suppose if the goal was to win 82 games this year rather than battle for a playoff spot down the road, this makes a lot of sense.
WTF?
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Does this trade make the O's more likely to reach 82 wins this year?
Seems like a wash but I haven’t taken a close look.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Johnson must be on the block too.
Based on the sheer number of arms DD has brought in and the fact that Johnson is one of the few O’s with trade value. Let’s hope he brings a decent prospect in return, preferably a 3B as young as Machado.
We Americans are a peculiar people. We are for the underdog, no matter how much of a dog he is. - Happy Chandler
I am going to listen to the DD conference call when it starts.
I’ll let you know if anything interesting happens.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 12:30 PM EST reply actions
Dan Duq and both of the new pitchers are on the line.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 12:36 PM EST reply actions
"We're glad to be with you to announce the acquisition of two dependable, durable and qualified major league pitchers"
… OK.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 12:36 PM EST reply actions
can you ask Qs, or just listen?
because someone should ask about the possibility of acquiring prospects and/or younger players. Which would be kind of rude with the new pitchers on the phone, too, but the question needs to be asked.
Your cannonball trajectory, it always gave me hope
I could ask a question but am not likely to do so.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
2012 Orioles: our pitchers are qualified!
Suck it, MacPhail!
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Greaaat....
In other news: “All of our position players are eligible to be gainfully employed in the Continental United States.”
"They're throwing bottles at your house...Come on, let's go break their arms." - Henry Fool
by Fahrenheit 451 on Feb 6, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
So this is just about sheer volume, future value be damned
...While you're waiting for moments that never come.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Feb 6, 2012 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
Hate to to see him go
However, I was expecting him to be traded last year.
Seems pretty clear that DD is pinning his hopes on Martusz and Arrieta panning out. Britton seems more likely. Tillman is a long shot. These are the arms MacPhail tried to grow, but never seemed bothered to change the player development to the point where someone was tending to the arms. Guts was to be gone soon anyhow. DD is treading water and he’s all in with the grow the arms philosophy. I’d have liked to see a decent prospect, but assume no one was offering.
2012 is all about treading water and seeing if the young arms pan out with the guys DD has brought on board. Boring stuff, but once DD did not go the washed up free agent route, did you really expect anything else from the Orioles? This organization is not trying to win a slot in the playoffs, they are trying to win 82 games.
As I said in the open thread, I would have preferred that the Orioles go for a Koji-type return.
Eric Young and Christian Friedrich.
Duq is citing that he likes Hammel and Lindstrom's K/BB ratios.
I’m trying to get all the answers good so I can’t type as I go here. I will sum things up later.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 12:46 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
thanks man, I'm enjoying what you are doing now!
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Feb 6, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
For reference...
Hammel’s career K/BB: 1.52, 1.60, 1.26, 3.17, 3.00, 1.38
Lindstrom’s career K/BB: 2.95, 1.65, 1.63, 2.15, 2.57
Guthrie’s career K/BB: 1.17, 1.50, 0.93, 2.62, 2.07, 1.83, 2.38, 1.97
by Tezcatlipoca on Feb 6, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Of the three, Guthrie has the lowest overall career WHIP, by a significant margin.
Guthrie: 1.29
Lindstrom: 1.44
Hammel: 1.47
by Tezcatlipoca on Feb 6, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
And Lindstrom and Hammel pitched in the NL.
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 6, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
In Coors Luanchsite
Please come back Koji, we miss you.
by J(O's)elskIL on Feb 6, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Splits for 2011
Hammel (home): .834 OPS, 1.506 WHIP, 1.39 K/BB
Hammel (away): .715 OPS, 1.341 WHIP, 1.38 K/BB
Lindstrom (home): .690 OPS, 1.314 WHIP, 3.00 K/BB
Lindstrom (away): .628 OPS, 1.101 WHIP, 2.14 K/BB
Splits for 2011
Guthrie (home): .784 OPS, 1.375 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB
Guthrie (away): .756 OPS, 1.310 WHIP, 1.95 K/BB
Camden Yards isn’t Coors, but it isn’t Petco, either.
first impression
Not a big fan. Techyons particles have contaminated DD’s brain. He must have ejected it. Not sure what this deal accomplishes. If Guts has a draft pick attached to him, I would rather have that.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
he probably wouldn't
honestly, I’m starting to come around on it a little bit.
Your cannonball trajectory, it always gave me hope
I dunno. I'm just upset.
Talent-wise I think we win by a nose. Hammel is probably better than Guts but not by much (especially if he doesn’t get his ‘09-’10 form back). What makes this a win is Lindstrom. He’s not great but in our bullpen he’s the second or third best pitcher and both of them are quite cheap. It seems the Rockies soured on Hammel after last year.
Please come back Koji, we miss you.
by J(O's)elskIL on Feb 6, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Forgot what I was going to say.
This doesn’t make a difference. We’re not going to be able to flip either of them for anything of value so why not just keep Guts? We have a shitload of mediocre pitchers already.
Please come back Koji, we miss you.
by J(O's)elskIL on Feb 6, 2012 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Really? Well, we'll see.
I definitely think we could’ve gotten more for Guts if we’d traded him at a more opportune time but I think he and Hammel are basically the same with Guts having the adv. Basically Lindstrom is the tipping point.
Please come back Koji, we miss you.
I doubt if we would've gotten a pick for him.
According to my understanding of the new CBA we’d have to offer him a contract of about $12 million and for him to turn it down to get a pick. Considering the O’s offered 7 million in arb. means that they probably wouldn’t have offered that much.
Please come back Koji, we miss you.
by J(O's)elskIL on Feb 6, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
In that case, the lack of a draft pick makes the pick better.
Mostly blah trade. More rearranging chairs on the Titanic.
And I feel really bad for Guts. Playing at COL during his walk year sucks. I wouldn’t surprised to see him post an ERA over 5 and then hit free agency.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Maybe that's the evil plan.
He destroys his value going into his FA year, and we pick him back up for something like two years, $5 million each.
"Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs." -- Earl Weaver
a flyball pitcher in Coors sounds like a disaster.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
oh good, let's look this up in the dictionary.
and just for the record, you’re right.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Melewski just asked if when they explored trade options if they could have gotten young prospects
Duq: “We didn’t have any offers of young and upcoming prospects.”
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 12:49 PM EST reply actions
that I completely believe
KW couldn’t get prospects for Danks either.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
yeah, I don't know
I know that in today’s game, prospects are surely overvalued, and while in no way comparing the value of Guts to some other pitchers dealt this off-season, I find it hard to believe that Guthrie could not have warranted one Bish prospect.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
possibly a low A-ball, B- prospect
I don’t think anyone would would want to trade any reasonably advanced prospect because they figure that prospect could step in soon and be a cheap Guthrie for six seasons. I’m sure KW tried to get prospects for Danks, a reasonably comparable pitcher. I don’t know what he had the table but the fact that he extended him instead says something.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Couldn't the O's have waited until the deadline, though?
They might have been able to get one decent prospect if a team wanted a starter enough at the deadline. At the least a deal like this one could still have been done.
could have, doubt it would have improved anything.
when has a mid rotation guy ever get dealt for a prospect at the deadline lately (maybe 1 or 2 examples)? not saying impossible, just not likely.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Deadline deals...
In 2011, Boston acquired Erik Bedard for Trayvon Robinson.
The Diamondbacks acquired Jason Marquis for Zach Walters.
In 2010, the White Sox acquired Edwin Jackson for Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg.
The Cardinals acquired Jake Westbrook for Ryan Ludwick and Corey Kluber.
In 2009, the Tigers acquired Jarrod Washburn for Luke French and Mauricio Robles.
Trayvon Robinson – non-prospect no? Or barely a prospect.
The Diamondbacks acquired Jason Marquis for Zach Walters.
In 2010, the White Sox acquired Edwin Jackson for Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg.
The Cardinals acquired Jake Westbrook for Ryan Ludwick and Corey Kluber.
These guys had more than 1 year of service time?
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Well, all of those trades included a #3-ish starter for a younger player.
I have no idea what service times or prospect statuses were. I just think that there is a demonstrated history of teams trading 24 year old players for pitchers like Guthrie. The O’s would be better off taking a flyer on someone 24 than someone 29 or 30.
I don't contest that mid-rotation guys are traded at the deadline for prospects.
Doug Fister is a good example. It’s 2 month rentals that I dispute.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
That's a good point.
If Guthrie was going to net the O’s younger players and maybe decent prospects, it probably wouldn’t have been this year.
It's a pretty big if.
Whatever else you can say about Duquette, you can say that he’s determined not to go to war in 2012 with the same staff that was league-worst in 2011. Whether he’s going about that in an effective way is yet to be determined, but nobody from that group who remains is getting a free ride to a roster spot.
Taken in that context, this trade has enhanced the competition for a bullpen spot by continuing to have one player virtually guaranteed a rotation spot (now Hammel instead of Guthrie) and also adding a bullpen pitcher who is added to the “virtually guaranteed a roster spot” list.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
Assuming no one is offering Bedard-trade-like hauls for these guys (Hardy last year, Guts now, etc…), and they aren’t, all a team in our position can do is rack up buy low opportunities, take fliers, and grab as many warm bodies as you can, then hope some of them work out.
Obviously that’s just step one, I would hope, but it seems like as right a step one as any.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Feb 6, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
and also adding a bullpen pitcher who is added to the "virtually guaranteed a roster spot" list
Agreed. So instead of signing a expensive middle reliever, we traded for one!
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Feb 6, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
I do feel slightly better about Hammel the more I think about it.
I meant the guy did have two 3.9 win (fWAR) seasons, and Guts doesn’t have that kind of upside. 4 win pitchers don’t just grow on trees.
Of course, it’s the O’s, a team that’s chock full of pitchers who seem to have been good until they all of the sudden weren’t for no discernable reason.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
I'm also pissed that Duquette made this trade while ignoring my suggestion in the 29 for 29 series!
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Feb 6, 2012 12:59 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
OK. Duq was asked point blank if he acquired Lindstrom with the hopes of flipping him later.
The answer: “He’s an Oriole.”
Going to pick through my transcript and try to get at the interesting parts now. It’s over, btw.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
Jeremy Guthrie
I will always be a member of your posse.
"Daddy, is Hevan like BIRDLAND?"
"No son, Hevan is BIRDLAND."
by BENNY BIRDMAN on Feb 6, 2012 1:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
wow, that is a throwback reference
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 6, 2012 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
David Schoenfield weighs in. I guess he’s trying to make the case that Hammel is a reasonable duplicate of Guthrie except cheaper and under control for another year.
A quick look at the basic stats would suggest there isn’t a lot of difference between Guthrie and Hammel:
Guthrie, 2007-2011: 2.6 BB/9, 5.5 SO/9, 1.2 HR/9, 1.27 WHIP
Hammel, 2009-2011: 2.7 BB/9, 6.3 SO/9, 1.0 HR/9, 1.40 WHIP
And he mentions this.
I do wonder if the Orioles could have held Guthrie until the trade deadline and flipped him to a desperate contender for a couple prospects. I would think a durable innings-eater like Guthrie would have been an attractive trade commodity.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
On the other hand
if Guthrie and Hammel are essentially the same quality, is there any reason we can’t do that with Hammel too? If that’s the case it seems like we haven’t limited our ability to acquire prospects and have gotten a useful bullpen arm.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
and to add
a 3 month rental of guts at 8.2mil vs an additional season of Hammel at 4.75 mil. seems like the latter would be more attractive.
I only rec daveh873. Not because he is the best poster on SB Nation, but because the NY Football Giants are the best football team in the nation.
I do wonder if the Orioles could have held Guthrie until the trade deadline and flipped him to a desperate contender for a couple prospects.
If we couldn’t get prospects for him in 2011, there’s no reason to think we would in 2012 with only a few months left on his contract.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
seems to be a pretty big difference in WHIP,
And Guts averages about 25 to 30 or so more innings per year than Hammel.
My beef with this deal is more that Hammel doesn’t have much of a ceiling.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Feb 6, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
if he puts up a 3.9 fWAR for us next year (as he did in 2009 and 2010)
that would make him the best pitcher we’ve had since Bedard’s 2007.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Feb 6, 2012 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
The Nationals
… I bet that the Nationals would have been interested in Guthrie sometime in July. They’re going to be trying to compete this year, but they are also going to be going easy on the innings for Strasburg and Zimmermann to keep them available for the postseason. Guthrie would have let them do that.
You think?
Their rotation is stacked and they’re already trying to dump Lannan. Why would they want another mediocre starter? Zimmermann shouldn’t have any innings limits this year.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
They have Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Gonzalez.
I doubt if they let Strasburg go over 150 IP, maybe 160 IP, even including the postseason. He’s just never had that kind of workload before and the Nats have shown that they are cautious to a fault with him.
Zimmermann will be capped at about 190 IP, including the postseason. That will necessitate a few extra-rest starts in August and September.
Gonzalez is a workhorse worth 200 IP, so that’s not an issue.
That leaves them with Lannan, Wang, and Detwiler to eat up 450 innings (assuming they try to get the same 900 IP from starters that they got last year). I think if they trade Lannan, they’re insane. Detwiler’s never thrown 100 IP in the majors. Wang hasn’t topped 100 IP since 2007.
Yeah, I absolutely think the Nationals would have been interested in a dozen starts from Guthrie in the last few months of the season (and the possibility of keeping him on the postseason roster to pitch in relief).
A) They signed Edwin Jackson last week.
B) Where have the Nats said that Zimmermann will be capped at 190 innings?
C) They also have Gorzelanny which gives them 4 pitchers for 2 spots.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Forgot about Jackson... stupid MLB.com depth chart wasn't updated.
Zimmermann’s 190 innings cap is based on his career high of 160 IP and the Nats adhering to a pretty strict +30 IP rule.
Guthrie is better than Gorzelanny, who the Nats don’t want starting. Over the past two years, Gorzelanny’s ERA is a full two runs higher as a starter than as a reliever and his OPS allowed is .170 higher as a starter.
Even if Jackson, Zimmermann, Gonzalez, and Jackson eat 200 innings each, they’ll still need someone to give Strasburg a rest in August and September. Guthrie would be a better option than anyone else in their organization, if they trade Lannan and for some strange reason, I bet they’d value Guthrie over Lannan anyway… but that’s just a gut feeling.
Of course they'll need someone to be the 5th starter
which is why they’re lucky to have 4 guys going for that spot. And whoever doesn’t win it can pick up whatever innings are leftover from guys getting hurt or being limited (although I think they’ve said Zimmermann won’t be limited). Zimmerman was only limited in innings last year because it was his first full year back from TJ not because it was a 30 inning jump from his previous high. I don’t think he’ll be at all limited this year.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Yes, but his highest ever innings pitched is 160 IP.
I would be shocked if the Nats let him go over 190 this year, maybe to 200 including the playoffs. If they’re in contention in September, I think they’d try and save him some innings.
They’ve been so astoundingly aggressive this offseason, that I have no doubt they’d have inquired about Guthrie in July. And I’d be willing to be that the O’s could have gotten a 24 year old flyer from the Nats instead of a 29 year old flyer from the Rockies.
I mean maybe the equation will be different in july
but right now they have more starters than they know what to do with and apparently had absolutely no interest in Guthrie. I don’t see that changing unless something weird happens especially since they have just parted with a lot of their young talent.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Basically
I think the Nats would have to either have a major injury to one of their big 4 and somehow still be in contention or be completely insane to give up any prospects for Guthrie at the deadline.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
But he was My Favorite Mormon!
And then this: http://io9.com/5881462/publishers-destroy-scary-stories-to-tell-in-the-darks-amazing-artwork
Everything is working together to ruin my Monday.
Robert Andino, let me buy you a beer.
The problem with the trade
is that it doesn’t help the Orioles in either the short term or the long term.
I understand trading Guthrie. But how can you possibly not get a single prospect for him? What is Duquette’s plan, exactly? We know he’s not building a contender for this season. But he’s also not stockpiling players that will help in the future. So then, in what direction is he trying to take the team? Even he apparently doesn’t know.
I really think Hammel is a good value proposition.
DD said no one was offering prospects, and it’s possible (not likely, obviously) that DD just bought low on a 4 win pitcher (his 2 seasons before last both would have made him our most effective pitcher). With a valuable reliever added in, and with relievers we all know that quantity matters when building a pen.
If that’s the case then all of the sudden we have a successful player at a team friendly price that we can extend or trade for more value than Guts ever had.
I would be willing to bet money that he doesn’t reach that level, he’ll probably get wrecked next year in the east because we’re O’s fans, and that’s what happens. But this seems like a flier that’s worth taking. It worked with JJ Hardy, for instance.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Feb 6, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
I believe this trade will get us
a few more wins this season and that’s it. I hated the trade when I first got the text, but I’m coming around a little.
Baseball nerd
Kind of an open question about whether the O's will want to control him for both of those years.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, I don't see Hammels turning into a four win pitcher.
Seems highly unlikely.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
agreed. completely.
but if teams are going to cling to prospects like they seem to be doing, then the only room for upside we have is in potential buy-low guys.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Feb 6, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
He's already been an (essentially) 4 win pitcher
It is a question on if he will regain that form or not.
yes, i don't see that regaining that form.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
If it was likely, the Rockies wouldn't have traded him for Guts.
Please come back Koji, we miss you.
True
But the twins gave away 5-win JJ Hardy for two nothing relievers.
Teams do sour prematurely on guys sometimes.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Feb 6, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
If it makes you feel better
His unofficial facebook page includes garrett atkins as one of his favorites.
I made a separate thread for the highlights of the conference call.
http://www.camdenchat.com/2012/2/6/2775441/jeremy-guthrie-trade-the-conference-call
I am still pretty baffled by this, honestly.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
Law retweets: @YirmiyahuStats Both Hammel and Lindstrom are non-tender candidates after 2012. I wouldn’t consider either a two-year asset.
Ugh, didn’t think of this. Is this a legit concern?
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
If they suck in 2012 they won't be back. If they're passably tolerable they probably will be back.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, i'm assuming they'll perform in a way that is reasonable with past performance.
if that happens, is non-tender a concern? For Hammels, if he’s just a two win pitcher, non-tender seems unlikely.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I posted this earlier but it bears repeating
when you look at fWAR for pitchers, they base it on FIP and IP. So Guthrie’s fWAR will always undersell him because he has shown a consistent ability to outperform his FIP. Similarly, Hammel has always shown an ability to underperform his FIP, so fWAR wil usually oversell him. The problem is that we know a pitcher has some effect on batted balls, but we don’t know what yet, exactly.
Your cannonball trajectory, it always gave me hope
Not to sidetrack this conversation,
but it’s pretty telling to me that Guthrie has a career BABIP of 273 as an Oriole, which is puzzling considering how shittastic the Orioles defense is and has been over the course of his career…
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Feb 6, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
we also know that BABIP is consistently inflated in Coors field
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Feb 6, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
with all of the talk of the flaws of fWAR when evaluating guthrie, I think it would be worthwhile to bring bWAR into the equation...
Guthrie: 2007 4.2
2008 4.6
2009 1.7
2010 4.3
2011 2.9
Hammel: 2009 1.8
2010 1.7
2011 2.0
Ouch…. that makes this deal look far shittier.
good point…but we’re trying to find optimism here.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Feb 6, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
There is no optimism here.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
Buster Olney said the same thing.
But what is confounding about the deal is that it really leads to nowhere in the Orioles’ big-picture need to improve. Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom, the two pitchers that Baltimore acquired, make about as much money as Guthrie, so the O’s didn’t save any cash. And if Hammel has another season as rough as last year, when he lost his spot in the Colorado rotation, then he will be a non-tender candidate next fall. Similarly, Lindstrom will be a non-tender candidate if the Orioles don’t pick up his option.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
ZiPS
These projections are for Coors, but 101 ERA+ for Hammels and 104 ERA+ for Lindstrom.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
OPS+ is normalized for park and I believe league as well.
But I believe the underlying projection is league and park dependent. So a projection can change if these variables change (I think, not 100% sure).
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
It is's a + it means it is adjusted so there's a baseline
A 101 ERA+ in Coors is the same as a 101 ERA+ in Camden Yards, even if their actual numbers may vary because of differences in park.
yes, ERA+ allows for comparison across league and ballpark.
but ZiPS the formula uses ballpark and league to arrive at a projection… I think.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
ZiPS should project a 101 ERA+ for him regardless of park or league
It’s the other stats which lead to the 101 ERA+ that will differ.
At least it should be.
I don’t know if does… but if the formula doesn’t factor in competition and ball park, that’s a weakness.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
What? Of course it does
It just normalizes them when it comes to ERA+, because ERA+ is a stat that is normalized for park and league.
When it projects things like his walks, hits, HRs, and Ks, it says “against the competition he’ll face, these are the numbers he’ll put up.” ERA+ then takes those stats and say “If he faced a league average offense in a league average park, this is what how much better (or worse) than league average his ERA would be”.
you're confusing ZiPS and ERA+
the calculations are different. ZiPS arrives at OPS+ is meant to be comparable across leagues and ballparks. But that doesn’t mean the formula used to calculate ERA+ within ZiPS doesn’t factor in ball park and league.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I know what ZiPS and ERA+ are
I’m saying if ZiPS is projecting an ERA+, it must be normalizing the ERA+ else it’s not ERA+.
To put it another way...
ZiPS projects a player’s stats. It then uses those stats to arrive at an ERA+. Because the formula to calculate ERA+ adjusts for park and league, it doesn’t matter what league and park he pitches in. If he pitched in a different park and league, the adjustments made when calculating ERA+ would be different, allowing it to arrive at a ERA+ of 101 no matter what.
Because the formula to calculate ERA+ adjusts for park and league
That’s my point, you don’t know this. You don’t know the formula Syzm uses. You just know that whatever number ZiPS spits out, he then converts it to ERA+.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Yes I do know that
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ERA%2B
Adjusted ERA+, often simply abbreviated to ERA+ or ERA plus, is a pitching statistic in baseball. It adjusts a pitcher’s earned run average (ERA) according to the pitcher’s ballpark (in case the ballpark favors batters or pitchers) and the ERA of the pitcher’s league.
that's not the formula for ZiPS
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
just to be clear,
I’m asking to see the formula for ZiPS not ERA+.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
The formula for ZiPS doesn't matter
ZiPS projects stats. These stats are then used to give us an ERA+. ERA+ is park and league adjusted to be neutral.
Yes, it does matter.
how league average performance (a key part in calculating ERA+) looks depends on competition quality and ballpark.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
how league average performance is calculated depends on....
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Tommy Hunter is a career 99 ERA+ pitcher before coming to CY.
You can’t simply say he would have been a 99 ERA+ t if he played those years at CY in the AL East. ERA+ is simply taking his performance and normalizing it (it’s like a z score if you have a stats background). But we know competition and park factors affect performance. If Tommy Hunter had performed in the AL East those years, his ERA would be different, hence his ERA+ would be different (assuming all other player performances that year remained the same, thus the average performance would remain the same). ERA+ is simply standardizing the ERA to to make players comparable across league and ballpark. It doesn’t adjust how a player arrived at that ERA in the first place.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Competition and park factors do affect performance
ERA+ attempts to remove the effects of competition and park factor, though.
You can’t say Tommy Hunter’s stats would be different and everyone else’s would stay the same. That’s impossible. If his stats change, other players’ stats change along with them.
ERA+ attempts to remove the effects of competition and park factor, though.
It does remove them as far as I know.
You can’t say Tommy Hunter’s stats would be different and everyone else’s would stay the same. That’s impossible. If his stats change, other players’ stats change along with them.
Yes, I agree, but that’s irrelevant to the point that I was trying to make.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I don't understand what your point is
It seems to me that you’re saying that by him changing teams, his ERA+ would be different because his ERA is different.
I am saying that is not true, because ERA+ adjusts for the factors that would alter his ERA.
his ERA+ would be different because his ERA is different.
That’s exactly what I’m saying.
I am saying that is not true, because ERA+ adjusts for the factors that would alter his ERA.
It adjusts them after the performance in question. Do you believe Tommy Hunter’s ERA+ would be exactly the same if he pitched in the AL East all these years? I tend to believe that there will be slightly lower (not a whole lot).
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
ERA+ is a peer by peer comparison tool. It won’t completely eliminate competition factors.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I believe it would have been roughly the same
I agree it doesn’t completely eliminate competition factors because those are impossible to eliminate completely.
Well, I think we slightly disagree then.
I’m guessing his ERA would be higher in the AL East thus his ERA+ would be slightly lower. But that’s my two cents.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I agree with the slightly
That’s why I said roughly. The difference between, say, 99 and 96 is largely irrelevant.
I'm happy to have you on board with me on the tommy hunter train.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
90 ERA+ in 2011.
103 ERA+ previous to 2011 hardly sucks.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I believe it's also adjusted by year too
so a 100 OPS+ is league average whether in the steroid era or last year, even though the numbers would be different.
Do back-of-the-rotation starters have fewer innings in the NL than AL?
Possibly because they get pulled for a pinch-hitter an inning early? Not enough to account for the difference between Hammels and Guthrie’s inning counts, but just wondering.
That's a fair question.
If one in three starts is truncated by one IP due to a PH situation, that’s 10 IP difference. That may be an optimistic speculation on my part, of course.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
Are you talking about last year?
Because Hammel had a few short outings in early August (ie got shelled and was yanked after 3/4/5 innings) and got demoted to the bullpen in late August, although he did start two games in September and was effective.
A reporter asked him on the call about his struggles in 2011.
He offered the response that he had been trying to tweak his mechanics and he should have stuck with what he was doing.
I am sure he is in the best shape of his life (this phrase was not uttered on the call).
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
I guess I don't see much downside here.
No, Hammels and Lindstrom aren’t going to set the world on fire. But by all accounts Hammels and Guthrie are very close (though I think Guts is more consistent), and with orange-colored glasses Hammels has shown some upside in the past.
Did we miss out on a chance to get more for Guthrie? Maybe, but if Hammels is about as good as Guthrie, then he presumably has the same trade value, right?
The one thing about Guthrie is that a lot of fans really liked him—he was probably my favorite Oriole for the last few years—a good guy who did his job and never complained about his lack of run support and who actually seemed to like playing for us even though we were always in last place. Sadly, however, that kind of thing isn’t valued by other teams on the trade market, and in fact probably has about as much effect as “grit” in terms of winning baseball games.
Or maybe it’s like Fat Tony thinking about taking Lisa’s saxophone—“It’s not worth much, but the sentimental value is astronomical” (or something to that effect).
Dana Eveland
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 6, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
Chen?
Chen.
...While you're waiting for moments that never come.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Feb 6, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
It's fun to look at his stats and pretend he's been in MLB for the past few years
If you do that he’s by far our best player.
...While you're waiting for moments that never come.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Feb 6, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
I want to know how well he did in hitting the face.
I can’t tell if 33 hit the faces is good or not. What’s the league average in hitting the face.
Anyway, that was the result of Google Chrome’s attempt at translation. While I was looking for that in my browsing history, I found this, in case anyone wants to feel a little better after the trade..
That troll photoshop is incredible
...While you're waiting for moments that never come.
by Astronaut Mike Dexter on Feb 6, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
I think I posted that in one of the threads after Game 162.
Oh, man, there was so much visual awesomeness in those threads.
My guess at this point would be Britton.
Really, who knows, though.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
That would have been an interesting question for somebody to ask.
The only time Buck’s name came up on the conference call was when people asked who would be in the rotation and Duq said that would have to be directed at the manager.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
Of course it was
There is also speculation that Buck was not a big fan of Guthrie. Notice that Guthrie didn’t thank him in his flurry of farewell tweets.
The Orioles depth chart at their official site has already been updated to remove Guthrie.
Hunter is now listed as the top starter, followed by Chen and Britton.
I wouldn't put much stock in that.
But with Hunter being listed as the top starter, I really wouldn’t put any stock in that.
I'd put as much stock in it as anything else at this point.
At this point, I’m not ruling out the O’s going to the 9 man rotation with every pitcher going 3 innings every third day.
Dear lord let Britton come out strong in spring training
if Hunter is our OD starter it will be a very depressing start to the season.
Backwards thinking
“I have no way of knowing if a Guthrie trade could bring back something that would help the Orioles long term, but if it’s determined that the best you can do for him is this deal right here, then I wish they would have just let Guthrie stay an Oriole. "
1. If we could have gotten something that would have helped long term, we would have. The Bells and Johnsons of the baseball world won’t help.
2. Guthrie had one year left. Hammel - a better pitcher by some metrics, and younger - will be here for two years. We also get an OK to good reliever. Certainly better than Bergesen, Simon, and Berken.
3. Guthrie is on the downside of his career.
Of course you make this trade. We probably got better as a result.
Doesn’t feel right? It was a good decision, both from the baseball and business perspective.
Feeling right is giving Melvin Mora and Brady Anderson contracts instead of letting them walk.
What are you basing your first point on?
We have no idea what other offers DD had on the table or if he was refusing to explore options with some teams for various reasons. Just because this is the trade he made doesn’t mean that there were other possibilities out there.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
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