Get to know the new O's: Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom
There has been much lamenting the loss of Jeremy Guthrie and a lot of head scratching regarding the return on the trade, but the fact is that Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom are Orioles now, so let's cross our fingers they play well and that Dan Duquette knows something we don't.
Andrew Fisher from Purple Row, the SB Nation Rockies blog, was kind enough to send us a few observations on the two newest Orioles. First up, Jason Hammel (Andrew's comments are in block quotes, mine are not):
Hammel is one of my favorite players to ever put on a Rockies' uniform. In a field where athletes are likely not even conscious during interviews, Hammel provides unique dry wit and self-deprecating honesty in interviews. His dorky humor is enough to make a fan chuckle even after a tough loss. When he pitches well, he says so. When he pitches like dog excrement, he says so. When he pitches well and is undone by rotten luck, he says that too. (He has one memorable quote about being undone by a 27-hop home run...an inside the parker that was grounded down the 1B line.)
If there is one thing we like here at Camden Chat, it's dorky humor. Hopefully we'll be laughing along with Hammel instead of throwing things at our TV.
He's a fascinating player to analyze, as his 2009 and 2010 seasons rank #1 and #2 in Rockies' franchise history in terms of K/BB rate. He hit a home run off Zack Greinke. As a fan of baseball analysis, he has been an ideal case study to parse through. His 2009 and 2010 were nearly identical seasons in every statistical way...except for an ERA of a half run higher in 2010. And yet in well over 700 IP, his career ERA is much much higher than his FIP/'xFIP etc.
If his career ERA is much higher than his FIP then he's basically the opposite of Jeremy Guthrie, who always performed better than his FIP. I guess there's hope that Hammel might even out here in Baltimore. I mean, we have to hope for something, don't we?
He tends to give up hits in bunches, and his inconsistency is maddening. He has essentially lost a rotation spot two years running. His strikeout rate (ranked 86 of 94 qualifying MLB pitchers in 2011) took a nose dive. His curveball, which was really exceptional in 2009, no longer got so many whiffs, leaving him unable to put batters away in 2011. It could be mental with him. On one occasion last season, he stopped his windup midmotion because he forgot what pitch he had just agreed to throw.
Well, that's encouraging.
He had a child born late last season, and he was lights out afterward (coincidence? who knows?). He also was on medication for a genetic health condition last year. Either way, he's a great guy to have in the clubhouse. It is just tough to know exactly what he will provide. He still has decent upside, but his peripherals took a huge hit last year. He is not on twitter, though his brother @Bill_Hammel is. I wrote Player Reviews for him in 2010 and 2011.
Interesting stuff on Hammel. As for Lindstrom:
Matt Lindstrom is a sexy bullpen option. He plays with fire and he throws fire. He will toss out 96mph consistently and had a career best effort in terms of control last season. He's a bit more of a skater dude personality and one case see he has the so-called "closer mentality." He was an exceptional find for Colorado in 2011, as they got him for two D prospects last off-season, and he panned out well with a 3.00 ERA. With that closer pedigree and big time cheese, one would expect high strikeout numbers. Yet of 129 relievers with 50+ IP last year, he ranked 110th with just 6.00. It was kind of strange. The upside seems to be there, but it just hasn't translated. Best case for Baltimore - he can be a legitimate closer. More likely, he's a decent middle reliever. Lindstrom is not on twitter. Our Jeff Aberle wrote a review of his 2011 season.
Lindstrom will likely be an asset to the bullpen, and hopefully he'll reach his potential. But given that he'll turn 32 years old next week, the fact that his upside hasn't translated to success yet is a bit troubling.
Thanks to Andrew for the insight! And here's hoping the Rockies can contend in 2012 so that Guts can get a taste of the playoffs.
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I don't wanna get to know them! They're stupid!
[sulks in corner]
Please come back Koji, we miss you.
I understand emotions are high right now...
…but really, there’s only one logical way to look at whether this was a good trade or not…
What does Harold Reynolds think?
If Joe Morgan, I mean Harold thinks this was a win for the O’s, THEN you can start burning down DD’s house.
I'm not confused brother! I just took picture of my face, and it's deffo not my confused face. - Waj
by Christopher Claxton on Feb 6, 2012 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks Andrew
Knowing Hammel is a fan favorite takes some of the edge off. We don’t have much to enjoy around these parts, but Guts has always made me smile. He’s pure awesome and I know you’ll love him. Make sure to follow him on twitter. He’ll randomly meet up with his followers pre-game or send them signed stuff. He also has an insane sneaker collection and rides his bicycle to work, so keep an eye out for that.
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
In case anyone is interesting
I gave them a bit of Guthrie insight: http://www.purplerow.com/2012/2/6/2775938/stacey-long-of-camden-chat-on-jeremy-guthrie
They make a fantastic point in the comments
Guts will now have the opportunity to select Justin Bieber as his at-bat music
I was neutral on DD to this point...
Now I think I hate him. Until somebody can give this one positive spin, it sucks. And dry wit ain’t it.
Why?
Hammel’s a better pitcher. Guthrie is pretty terrible, and his ERA is finally catching on to the pitcher he really is. He’s really not the mid 3s guy you saw 4-5 years ago. Hammel’s got 3 seasons of 170+ IP, and 2 of those seasons has had over 1 WAR more than Guthrie’s best (through 5 seasons of that many IP).
Plus, he’s younger, he’s cheaper, and you’re getting a reliever along with him.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
Hammel’s a better pitcher.
I don’t know. Hammels took a pretty serious dive last year. He kind of scares me.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Last year was ugly
but following two straight 3.9 fWAR seasons, I’d cut him some slack.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 8:39 PM EST up reply actions
If Guthrie is not the mid-3s guy we saw 4-5 years ago...
…then I guess you are also asserting that Jason Hammel is not the high-4s guy we’ve seen three of the past four seasons?
I am not buying.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He might be, but he probably isn't.
His FIP was much better than his ERA in 09 and 10.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
So... he should have sucked less than he did?
That will make me feel a lot better if I am watching another season where he also should suck less than he does.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 8:44 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty terrible you say?
And then you point to ERA? And what ERA are you even pointing to? The 4.33 that he just put up over 200 innings in the AL East? Sticking with ERA since you brought it up, are you comparing that 4.33 in the AL East to Hammel’s 4.76 in the pathetic NL West that led to his demotion to the bullpen?
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Guthrie is not pretty "pretty terrible"
Throw out his three years in Cleveland where he had a few starts and didn’t know what he was doing.
In five years in Baltimore, playing in the AL East, Guts had a WHIP of 1.273 and an ERA+ of 105 while averaging 197 innings per year. Those numbers are not only not terrible, they are above league average.
Guts is no ace, but he’s certainly a decent pitcher.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
He's really not that good, man.
He’s been lucky. Solid innings eater, but nothing more. Pretty terrible may have been over the top, but his lowest FIP in his career is 4.41. Woof.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 8:44 PM EST up reply actions
And that's one of the reasons we like him
Solid innings eater
also the fact that the Rockies opened a 40 man roster spot with the trade and the salaries back and forth were pretty even
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
And to be clear
by solid innings eater, I meant solid at eating innings.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe the assumptions made by FIP do not accurately represent Guthrie.
A gap between his ERA and FIP has existed every year of his career, even years where he didn’t have a decent ERA.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
The gap was significantly less when his ERA was over 4.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
So
you’re going to make an assumption about a pitcher based on a smaller sample size even though the larger sample size points to the opposite conclusion? Doesn’t make much sense to me.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
You're going to have to explain your assumption of my "assumption"
I have no idea what you’re getting at here.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
You don't?
You’re assumption is that he was lucky all those seasons where he outperformed his FIP instead of that FIP might not accurately capture his abilities.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I think the bigger leap of faith in this instance
is the one in which you assume that FIP doesn’t accurately capture his abilities.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 9:01 PM EST up reply actions
When he's exceeded it every year of his career?
Please explain.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
When he posts a low ERA, he exceeds it by much more than when he posts a sub-par ERA.
I’m not sure where the disconnect is here.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
The disconnect is
You saying it’s luck rather than the statistic possibly not accurately capturing his abilities.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Well, no one really knows for sure, I suppose.
But with Guthrie’s low K rate and high HR rate, I don’t think he’s as good as his good seasons’ results, ERA-wise. Other than good control, what is he really all that good at?
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
Keeping guys off base.
And when he does it every year I stop trying to figure out how he does it and just start accepting it.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I'll take the guy who consistently if inexplicably outperforms his FIP over the one who underperforms it.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
Okay.
I’ll also take the past stats, but I wouldn’t have a ton of faith of the stats that are yet to come.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
Come on.
No one thinks FIP accurately describes every pitcher. There are some pitchers who can consistently outpitch their FIP because DiPS, while very, very good, are not perfect. Given that Guthrie consistently has BABIPs lower than league average, he’s probably one of those guys.
lucky for 5 years?
I’ll take actual results over “peripherals”, thanks.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
Is 5.04 rather than 5.31 really luck?
4.33 rather than 4.48?
The 2nd one is especially negligible.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
Give it a couple days.
Then come back, and read what I’m posting after you’re over the loss.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 6, 2012 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
Don't assume you know how I feel about the trade.
I liked Guthrie, but the reason I don’t like the trade isn’t because he was a fan-favorite. It’s because I don’t think the return was right for the Orioles.
What do you think he was worth?
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 7, 2012 8:11 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure of your point?
His five years in Baltimore, he was an above average pitcher by most statistics that one would use to evaluate actual performance.
You’re cherrypicking onw statistic, which is used to measure POTENTIAL performance:
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a give time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average.
Apart from the fact that FIP is a pretty suspect stat that different organizations don’t even compute the same way, I’ll repeat: I’ll take his actual performance over what you say his performance “should have been” when we’re talking about a 5-year period.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
I have to disagree with you a little here.
FIP isn’t a suspect stat. It, and its variation, xFIP, are both pretty good stats. It’s just that they’re not perfect and sometimes there are pitchers that defy it. And it’s kind of pointless to say that organizations don’t compute it the same way because most organizations probably don’t use a lot of the stats we look at.
I have to disagree with YOU here
To me, FIP is a very suspect stat. It’s a contrived formula in pursuit of a made-up goal: some perfect equation that will correlates to success to a degree that it can successfully be applied to all types of pitchers.
Yet the constant used in it changes across each season and across leagues. Hey, why not change it across teams while we’re at it?
The fact that a lot of people think it means something is hardly proof of anything: a few years ago everyone worshiped VORP and now they’ve moved on to WAR.
In 1983, Scott McGregor had an FIP of roughly 4.29 (using a “guessed at” constant of 3.2, because I’m not about to run the numbers to see what it was for that year). Pretty disastrous by FIP standards, but that’s because the formula gives undue weight to striking people out. In reality, it matters not a flying fuck whether you get a batter out with strikeouts or ground balls, and McGregor, a notorious ground ball inducer, used the sharp defense behind him all year—as well he should have. Why should a pitcher NOT take advantage of his fielders in an effort to win the game? For his shitty-FIP efforts, Scotty won 18 games and got a bunch of Cy Young votes. He posted an ERA of 3.18, an ERA+ of 126, and a WHIP of 1.215.
But according to you he “shouldn’t have” done any of those things. Or something.
Then there’s the scenario where a pitcher who can throw gas gets an early 6 run lead. He starts blowing fastballs over the plate, challenging hitters. He gives up 2 solo home runs, a walk and a few Ks, and finishes the game in under 2 hours and under 100 pitches. Job well done—he is more refreshed for his next start. Too bad he gets an FIP of 5.97. He must suck!
Please, spare me your “what should have happened” stats. By any objective measure, Guts has been better than league average over his career. A terrible pitcher, he is not.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
by zknower on Feb 6, 2012 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
He's not good...
Do you think posters here are smarter than GM’s? If he was a desirable asset, the trade would have yielded better return for the O’s.
you're right
5 years of 200 innings and a 105 ERA+ is “not good”, “terrible”, the type of quality that “nobody would want as their number 5 starter.” Please continue to educate us.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
side note...
it’s really annoying to see m’ effer every time you post. consider changing that?
hahahahahaha
That’s just his sig. You don’t even know what he himself has to say on topics such as the arm sizes of Brian Matusz and Nick Markakis.
Bummer for you.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
by O'sFan21 on Feb 7, 2012 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I wouldn't be suprised if ZK were smarter than DD.
Also, “He’s not good…” really dude? Zk just nailed his side of the argument (I gave him a rec for facts and logic) and you counter with “He’s not good…” If you are going to be an asshole to other posters here at least have some facts to back yourself up.
Guts had 4 straight years over 200 innings, which is valuable even if there isn’t an advanced stat to prove it is. In 5 years with Baltimore he posted a WAR above 4 thrice and never had a WAR below 1.5.
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by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 7, 2012 12:03 AM EST up reply actions
Why was the return on the trade so weak then!!??
because DD is so dumb? is that your argument?
It's possible to disagree with DD's decisions without questioning his intellect.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 7, 2012 12:21 AM EST up reply actions
WestcoastO'sFan said..
“I wouldn’t be surprised if ZK were smarter the DD”….
You are misreading that.
Did I ever say DD was stupid? No.
Did I say there was someone smarter than him? Yes.
But if you want to take my comments out of context and argue against something I never said, then go for it.
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 7, 2012 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
There could be a lot of reasons.
The first is that Guthrie is only a 1 year rental.
The second is that he will be 33 years young by April 8.
The third is that he had one outlier season which drags his Oriole averages down.
Those facts don’t make him a terrible pitcher, they just lower his value as an asset in the future.
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 7, 2012 12:49 AM EST up reply actions
I'll trust that GM's know what they are doing and that..
you are related to Guthrie.
Well, why not, let's not forget the Front Office slogan since 1998::
“Orioles General Managers: We’ve been knowing what were doing for 14 straight years.”
Also, you failed to ever provide any tangible evidence to prove Guthrie was a bad pitcher, but if you say it enough times, maybe it will become true.
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 7, 2012 1:57 AM EST up reply actions
I feel like he just really wants to say
“He led the league in losses for 2 years”, but is just too embarrassed to say it
he already threw ERA out there a bunch
He’s toeing the line already.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Apparently no other GM's wanted him...
One stat, his BB/K ratio is barely 2 to 1 !!!! He gives up a TON of HR’s !!!
barely 2 to 1?
Oh, just like Scott McGregor then!
And as we all know, you can’t win baseball games with a low BB/K ratio!
Too bad there are so many pitchers who have.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
That's because he has no tangible evidence.
He’s talking out of his ass.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
What 4 years were those?
And what WAR are you using?
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 7, 2012 8:13 AM EST up reply actions
What a ridiculous statement.
If he was a desirable asset, the trade would have yielded better return for the O’s.
GMs have to consider a number of variables other than talent: contract status, current needs, who they have in the minors, overbearing owner demands, etc. Do you really think Andy McPhail didn’t want to trade Brian Roberts over the past few years?
Do you think posters here are smarter than GM’s?
I actually believe there are a number of posters on here who are smarter than GMs. But this conversation makes it obvious to me that there are plenty who aren’t.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
But...I didn't say any of that.
I, and most saber-oriented people, don’t think you should just use FIP. Articles about pitchers on Fangraphs often mention ground ball rates for that very reason. I also never said Guthrie is terrible. If you read my other posts, you’d see that I said he’s pretty good and that FIP paints a more incomplete picture than normal with him.
That hypothetical situation is pointless, anyway. FIP is awful in small sample sizes. Hell, it can even end up in the negatives.
I'm sorry ahoque
I thought i was still arguing with the other guy. My overall point in this thread is that Guthrie is obviously not “terrible”, and he was citing FIP up top as a reason why.
Mea culpa.
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
if we're gonna talk about WAR, why cherry pick which one you use?
bWAR (as opposed to fWAR):
Guthrie:
2007 4.2
2008 4.6
2009 1.7
2010 4.3
2011 2.9
Hammel:
2009 1.8
2010 1.7
2011 2.0
fwar loves Hammel.
he’s a really decent peripherals pitcher, but he gets hit hard.
Hammel is the reason I’ve started looking at like all the metrics rather than just the standard era/fip splits
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 6, 2012 11:19 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
and conversely, bWAR seems to love guthrie
I’ve heard fangraphs heavily weights it’s WAR for pitchers based on FIP. Looking at this, it seems bref probably relies more on ERA and WHIP.
Here's Dave Cameron's explanation:
They’re both very good articles, but here’s the gist of Cameron’s explanation:
Our version of pitcher WAR is essentially based on FIP, meaning that a pitcher is judged by his walk rate, strikeout rate, and home run rate (and, of course, the quantity of innings that he throws and the role in which he throws them). Sean [Smith*] takes a pitcher’s actual runs allowed, then makes adjustments to try to compensate for the defense behind him.
*WAR displayed at Baseball-Reference was formulated by statistician Sean Smith (who also produced the CHONE projection system) for his Rally WAR Database. Calling it bWAR or gives credit to the people who display the stat rather than the inventor of the stat. Just saying.
I personally prefer fWAR because I don’t like the idea of using defensive data to determine a pitcher’s role in allowing hits. If we only trust defensive statistics for a position player when we have 3 years of data, why should we be inclined to trust 1 year of team defensive data in seasonal pitcher WAR?
But there are some interesting details in the Guthrie vs. Hammel discussion that can’t be explained by any single statistic: Guthrie has repeatedly posted good BABIPs (though that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s all due to his pitching abilities), which depress his ERAs; between 2009 and 2011, Hammel posted a .312 BABIP, which elevated his ERAs (though some of that is due to pitching in Coors Field); Hammel’s peripheral stats all jumped in the wrong direction in 2011, and he’s not getting any younger; on the other hand, Hammel could rebound and become trade bait for some real honest-to-god prospects; but the Rockies probably don’t think Hammel will ever be a 4-win pitcher again, and they don’t think that he’ll be as good as Guthrie in 2011.
Zk made some great points about not fully trusting any one number. In this kind of situation, it’s really important to quote complementary statistics. To get a better idea of the big picture, we need to look at fWAR and rWAR side-by-side, as Jon Shepherd did in his analysis of this trade. If we keep these stats in mind while we consider the motives of each team, we can can a better understand this trade as a whole.
cool... thanks for sharing
nice articles, and a lot of interesting discussion in the comments as well
Hammel
is younger and the reason he’s been “inconsistent” as Fisher points out is that he has one bad inning. In 2009 he had a streak of about 20 straight quality starts and I am having a difficult time figuring why he can’t do it again (pitching to James Loney might not have helped much). Also, as Andrew points out, last season was probably difficult for him since his wife was pregnant and he was on a prescribed mediation for high cholesterol (I think). After his kid was born he pitched better than anyone on the staff. If he can get his curveball back and a little bit more movement on the fastball (by not being at 5280 ft) he is going to be good.
Lindstrom will help any bullpen he’s added to regardless.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
Having one bad inning is an example of inconsistency, not a reason for it.
And was he demoted to the bullpen before or after having the kid? If he was pitching better than anybody on the staff it would seem odd to get demoted.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I agree it is an example of inconsistency
He was demoted to the pen before his child was born.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
So..
when you reference him pitching better than anybody on the staff you’re talking about 6-7 outings?
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Pretty much
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
Yeah
I mean I think we’ll all take that for what it’s worth. Hope he can pick up where he left off, though.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
If he gets his control back
to under 3BB/9 again I think you just got yourselves a very good pitcher. I don’t see why he wouldn’t be capable of that but that is what the season is hear to determine. I liked him and I’m going to miss watching him pitch.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
I don’t see why he wouldn’t be capable
But why should we believe he is capable of going back. I believe in regression to the mean to a certain extent….
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
What is his mean though?
The two full seasons he pitched prior to this one were 2.1 and 2.4 and his minor league BB/9 was 2.8 while this season was 3.6. Regression to the mean looks closer to 3BB/9 (or lower) than the 3.6 he showed this year.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
he has to find his fastball again and start striking batters out again
he was way too bip dependent.
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 6, 2012 11:27 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
hope he finds his fastball then.
i’m a little skeptical but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility unless he’s hiding an injury.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
After his kid was born he pitched better than anyone on the staff.
I thought he was pulled from the rotation late in the year?
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
In August he was
he the replaced Jhoulys Chacin in the rotation in September for a game and got another chance on the last road series in Houston. His last two starts (after his child was born) were a combined 14 ip, 9 h, 4 r (3er), 2BB and 9 K.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
Did his wife have a very tough pregnancy?
Because I don’t think a pregnant wife is really a great excuse to start sucking unless there are other circumstances.
Not making excuses
it just happened to work out that way. His entire demeanor on the field changed a bit though as he appeared more focused in his September games. I wouldn’t know though as I’m not in the clubhouse, I just get to watch (and he was fun to watch a lot of the time)
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
September games = September lineups.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
True
and his last start was against Houston but the start on Sept. 6 was against an Arizona team still trying to secure a playoff spot.
Our Lineups were terrible however as the last two weeks of the season saw none of Tulowitzki, Gonzalez or Helton on the field.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
And they're still good enough to keep the Red Sox out of the playoffs!
by ahoque24 on Feb 6, 2012 9:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAH
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
He tends to give up hits in bunches, and his inconsistency is maddening. He has essentially lost a rotation spot two years running. His strikeout rate (ranked 86 of 94 qualifying MLB pitchers in 2011) took a nose dive.
If this isn’t fixable, he’s going to be a non-tender candidate after the season. I have no clue if this fixable, but I hope he can regain some of his stuff. Hopefully, moving away from Coors field will help. He’s going to need it in the AL East.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Well another thing is how many of those hits were off a fielding errors. But, if it’s simply because he’s not striking guys out, we have a problem.
Editor at Baltimore Beatdown - SB Nation Baltimore Ravens Blog
A.K.A "Baltimore Warrior"
by Zachary Beard on Feb 6, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
I would assume that zero of those hits were off of fielding errors
or they would have been called errors and not hits.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Correct me if I’m wrong. But balls that fall for a hit from a fielding error still count as hits on the pitcher’s statistics correct?
Editor at Baltimore Beatdown - SB Nation Baltimore Ravens Blog
A.K.A "Baltimore Warrior"
by Zachary Beard on Feb 6, 2012 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
Oh my bad. I thought they still counted against pitchers regardless.
Editor at Baltimore Beatdown - SB Nation Baltimore Ravens Blog
A.K.A "Baltimore Warrior"
by Zachary Beard on Feb 6, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
Oh nah
sorry – didn’t mean to be a dick. I misunderstood what you were asking initially.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Hehe... easy tiger
Will work for Recs.
by Wieters Wieners on Feb 6, 2012 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
They don't even count in OBP
Which I totally did not know until after I did my daughter’s softball team stats last year.
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
Proud member of Trainyard Sleepers, BECW: S2
We're gonna win, you know. Stats lie.
None were fielding errors
but it is frustrating when he gets a good pitch and it drops in for a hit (seemed to happen to him a lot more than some pitchers). He might walk a batter, last season was his highest BB/9 in 4 years so if he can reign that in a little bit, and there is no reason to think he can’t, he will be a good fit.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
I think we're in DEEP NEED for a CamdenCast
How the hell else am I supposed to understand how to feel about all these moves!?
If it was another pitcher from Asia, I was ready for it, but this move is completely unexpected
"Birdland is the belief that as great as today just was, tomorrow might be even better." -EME
Reading around...
Orioles fans hate this deal.
Rockies fans hate this deal.
Seems like a fair trade.
I'm not confused brother! I just took picture of my face, and it's deffo not my confused face. - Waj
by Christopher Claxton on Feb 6, 2012 5:07 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I feel like we just wasted our trade-bait
Editor at Baltimore Beatdown - SB Nation Baltimore Ravens Blog
A.K.A "Baltimore Warrior"
by Zachary Beard on Feb 6, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
There's still Adam Jones.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
I would’ve liked to have seen both of them go in the same trade for something a bit more substantial
Editor at Baltimore Beatdown - SB Nation Baltimore Ravens Blog
A.K.A "Baltimore Warrior"
by Zachary Beard on Feb 6, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
Still
I thought they could easily have gotten more for him. I figured the Cubs and White Sox, Detroit, Cleveland, and even the Yanks/Bosox would have made better offers.
Hammels who knows if he’ll be more than AAA but Lindstrom may be a good fireballer, maybe his pitches will work better in the AL East than NL Central. A lot of arms banging around Spring Training, not sure what to make of it now that none are proven pitchers like Guthrie.
sniff
be good to Hammel
he’s a fun guy
and you can use this if’n you want

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 6, 2012 7:47 PM EST via Android app reply actions 5 recs
Guts is amazing
and you can use this:

"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
Look at those skinny arms though
OSF21 will not be pleased.
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 6, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
They don't approach Matusz/Tillman territory. They are pretty normal looking.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I had to get a friend to get the screen cap for me
didn’t have mlb tv at the time
Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 6, 2012 11:29 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Check out this video
Spilborghs does a good job but Hammel really makes it happen
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
hilarious!
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
Part of the Bieber Fever
that is the Rockies team (Tulowitzki and him went and saw the movie during ST last year)
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
he's taken Tulo under his wing
like Giambi part owns the Rockies or something
Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
Learn about Batting Metrics
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PRMLB Marlins
by Andrew Martin on Feb 6, 2012 11:30 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I was about to comment
“It’s like Between Two Ferns with baseball players”
Then they dropped the reference themselves. Pretty funny stuff.
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 6, 2012 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
Another thread where discussion is more than me
See what other people at Purple Row think about the trade
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
from the Rockies side, I think it makes a bit more sense for them.
I think they want to compete now. Guthrie is an upgrade over Hammel. They lose Lindstrom but he’s easier to replace than a rotation arm.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Opportunity costs
Meh. This is a pretty lame trade, where we give up the slightly better pitcher for two guys who have two remaining years of team control.
The real trouble, of course, is that we waited until Guthrie had essentially no value to move him. Just like we might be doing with Jones. And just like we did with Luke Scott, and just like we resigned Hardy for no reason. No upside, just more cost controlled potential mediocrity. The quest for .500 has had real costs, and we keep paying them.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
It isn't the worst thing the Orioles could do (and what's with the "we" shit?)...
"I do think that socializing on the Internet is to socializing what reality TV is to reality."
Aaron Sorkin talks about Facebook - September 30, 2010
by WestcoastO'sFan on Feb 6, 2012 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Touche
Wow. I did that all over that post.
My apologies. Clearly, the posting after 14 hour work days on two hours sleep needs to be rethought.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Obviously the Orioles set you off.
One thing I have been thinking a lot today is that we, the fans, will be paying for Andy MacPhail’s refusal to commit fully to rebuilding for a while. Sounds familiar.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
I'm pretty well over the MacPhail era
I think he did close to the best he could (which wasn’t that great) and I question a lot how much control he really had.
Did the Bedard and Tejada and Sherrill deals work out as hoped? No, but all suffered a lot from organizational mismanagement, and all represented pretty good deals at the time they were made. The 2009 draft stands out as having been a huge fiasco, but draft classes bomb even when the philosophy behind them is sound. The retreat from international signings and the failure to really spend late in the draft hurts, particularly as those possibilities for improving bad teams have now been largely closed by the new CBA.
But the events since the end of the season speak to a much deeper organizational problem. MacPhail quitting, over the objections of ownership. Jordan bailing in order to take what is in effect a demotion in Philadelphia. LaCava and DiPoto turning down the Orioles, and the failure of the Orioles to even consider smart outsider hires like Luhnow in Houston, and the eventual desperate choice of Dan Duquette. MacPhail’s tenure looks a lot less awful in the light of what we have learned since it ended.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
You are right about all of that stuff, of course.
I was more referring to trades AM didn’t make rather than ones he did, though. Your comments about waiting too long on Scott and Jones and such.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 6, 2012 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
And sure, it isn't the worst thing the Orioles could do
But all these moves add up to being close to the worst thing the Orioles could do. Did they trade some minor league guys with potential for crap like Dana Eveland and Taylor Teagarden? Yep. Did they spend millions on stopgaps like Wilson Betemit, Matt Antonelli and Endy Chavez. Yep. Did they trade a soon to be free agent who would have garnered a compensation pick for nothing that will help the Orioles in the long run? Yep. Did they fail to understand that said compensation pick was worth more to them in the long term than the crap they got back in the trade – just like they did with Gregg Zaun and Derrek Lee? Yep.
Someday soon, Yoenis Cespedes will sign with some team that isn’t Baltimore for about $45 million over five years. And, according to Jim Callis he will instantly be the 15th best prospect in baseball, with huge upside. And the O’s will have been involved in the process, but ultimately will back off because they just don’t see him as being worth quite that price tag. Because the Orioles don’t understand that the $9 million he’ll cost this season is a far better investment than the $9 million we are spending on Betemit, Chavez and Antonelli – and the $9 million we’ll spend on their replacements next season, and the season after that.
And that’s the worst thing they could do, and they keep on doing it.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Whoah whoah whoah
“Did they trade some minor league guys with potential for crap like Dana Eveland and Taylor Teagarden?”
Let’s define what that potential was. It certainly wasn’t the potential to sniff significant time at the major league level.
“Did they spend millions on stopgaps like Wilson Betemit, Matt Antonelli and Endy Chavez.”
I would argue that 1 year of Vlad at $8m, more than these guys combined, was significantly worse.
“Did they trade a soon to be free agent who would have garnered a compensation pick for nothing that will help the Orioles in the long run?”
It’s really a long shot that Guts would have garnered a comp pick with the new rules. And if they end up trading Hammel or Lindstrom for a future piece, then they were essentially writing themselves a raincheck.
I'm not confused brother! I just took picture of my face, and it's deffo not my confused face. - Waj
by Christopher Claxton on Feb 6, 2012 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you about if we're talking about Cespedes in a vacuum.
He’s great, ridiculous videos and all. He was one of the main parts of my CCC entry, coupled with trading Adam Jones for prospects. Cespedes is an exciting player, and he’ll probably be paid like a 2-win player even though he has the potential to put up some 5 WAR seasons.
But let’s be honest about this: Cespedes is going to be a Miami Marlin. They just have to sign him, it’s makes so much sense. The Marlins are spending like crazy, they want to compete now, they need a center fielder, and they want to capitalize on the large Cuban community in their area à la Fernandomania in LA.
And then there’s this:
"Aggressive right to the point of stupidity, but not quite there," said [Marlins President] Samson, characterizing the club’s planned pursuit.
How often does a team president come out and publicly say that his team will chase a player “to the point of stupidity”? If the O’s have to outbid the Marlins for Cespedes, it just won’t make any sense for them. Apart from the Marlins, the Cubs are interested in Cespedes, and they can probably offer him a ton of money, but at that point, the $/win will be too high for the Orioles payroll situation. It just doesn’t look like Cespedes will fall into their hands at a reasonable price.
That being said, there are other fish in the pond. Jorge Soler is out there, and this offseason is a good time to spend money on a player like him since the new CBA will restrict international spending*. Baseball America’s Jim Callis had some good things to say about Soler. He would be a substantial boost to the O’s farm system, becoming their 3rd best prospect and helping to mitigate their weakness in outfield prospects.
*This might not be entirely true. The new restrictions could have forced Soler to accept something around $3M instead of the ~$15M that he’s expected to get this year. But in that scenario, he could decide to sign in Japan instead. NPB salaries are lower than MLB salaries, but Japanese teams are willing to pay for prospects (many teams have academies in the DR.) Just kind of thinking out loud here.
one thing I didn't fully share in my correspondence with Stacey
http://twitter.com/PoseidonsFist/status/166890074556989440/photo/1
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 7, 2012 4:03 PM EST reply actions
Huh, that's interesting
His curve and change whiff rates pretty much switched between 2010 and 2011. Pitch F/x says that he used his curve and slider a bit less, and he used his change and a two-seamer more in 2011. Huh.

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