What Worries Me
by Andrew_G on Feb 7, 2012 11:00 AM EST
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PrintMy immediate reaction when I heard about the Jeremy Guthrie trade yesterday was a blend of shock, anger, and confusion. The deal deprived the Orioles of one of my favorites and the return left me wanting in a bad way. But it is important to let these things percolate and look at them with a more rational mind, and I found that as the shock wore off, I had less and less to complain about with the trade.
Yes, Jason Hammel is not as good a pitcher as Jeremy Guthrie and Matt Lindstrom's walk rates have been known to have a certain Kevin Gregg-ness to them. But Guthrie is 33 years old with a 4.19 career ERA and is a free agent after this season. I can easily believe the reports out of the front office that this winter the demand just wasn't there. Roy Oswalt is still out of work, and it took a longer time than expected for Edwin Jackson to settle for just one year. The pitching market isn't tremendous, and in that light this trade seems relatively fair.
So what's missing from this package that would have made it more palatable?
The answer is youth. This trade doesn't make the O's significantly better in 2012 and does nothing for them long-term. I can hammer on this point for weeks: the Orioles won 69 games in 2011 and they need to be thinking long-term. But, then, it appears to be the case that nobody wanted to give up youth for Guthrie. Yesterday de facto General Manager Dan Duquette explicitly said "We didn't have any offers of young prospects." Teams are valuing their young talent higher than ever before. That's unfortunate, but it is what it is. You have to hope now that Hammel or Lindstrom have big years and build up enough trade value to get the needed young talent into the Oriole organization.
Fox Sports' (and former Baltimore Sun writer) Ken Rosenthal chimed in on the trade, echoing a lot of my own thoughts:
The Baltimore Orioles should have traded right-hander Jeremy Guthrie at the non-waiver deadline last season, or even before. His value was higher when he was further away from free agency, under greater club control.
[snip]
The word "had" is applicable not because of Guthrie’s performance — he pitched gallantly as a No. 1 starter in the American League East, averaging nearly 200 innings and compiling an ERA-plus of 106 during the past five seasons. But the formula for trades is always the same: The higher a player’s salary, the closer he is to free agency, the less a team gets in return.
New Orioles general manager Dan Duquette inherited the situation. His predecessor, Andy MacPhail, was the executive who steadfastly held on to Guthrie. Perhaps Duquette could have made a better deal earlier in the off-season, involving a greater number of suitors.
It's impossible for regular fans to know the particulars of any trade conversation. Perhaps the Orioles never could have gotten good prospects for Jeremy Guthrie no matter what. It does feel like what Rosenthal says is right, though: the Orioles ran out the clock on this one and ended up with what feels a lot like an underwhelming trade. Moreover, Rosenthal postulates that this is just the latest in a long string of inefficient roster building moves that have defined the Orioles over the past fifteen years.
What about Koji Uehara, who was traded to Texas for Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis last summer? I bemoaned a lack of prospects coming back in that trade on the day it was made. That feeling was punctuated the very next day when Texas sent prospects Joseph Weiland and Robbie Erlin (both B+ guys according to John Sickels) to San Diego for a reliever with similar value to Koji, Mike Adams.
Or Luke Scott, who easily led the Orioles in value for the 2010 season and became the subject of some trade rumors that season? The Orioles held onto him and ended up with nothing. Or J.J. Hardy, who surely would have been coveted by contending teams lacking quality shortstops last summer. Hardy's career year came and went, and the O's still have their 29 year old shortstop.
Maybe there wasn't a deal to be had there. Maybe there wasn't with Koji, Scott, or Guthrie either. Or maybe time just ran out on all those potential deals. Or maybe we're seeing an obvious trend of a team that wants MLB ready players, even if the total potential coming into the system is less than it would be with prospects. Better to compete in the short-term than go into full rebuild mode, it would seem.
Now I think about Adam Jones. Jones is another player that has been the subject of trade rumors, who is more valuable to a contending team than to the Orioles, and who almost definitely would be worth good prospects from a contending team. He is also a player the Orioles haven't shown an eagerness to commit long-term to. That even dates back to some cryptic remarks Andy MacPhail made during a blogger Q&A about young players needing to prove themselves within three years. Jones is a player that is also rapidly approaching his free agency payday. And he remains on the Orioles.
It's what really worries me about this Jeremy Guthrie trade. The Orioles aren't and haven't been aggressive about rebuilding their talent base through prospects-for-veterans trades, and it has bitten them three times now in the past 12 months. I strongly believe that the journey between the present in Baltimore and contending has to go through the building of an absolute beast of a farm system. The Orioles have another opportunity to cash in on a high quality player in Adam Jones and accelerate that process, but all I see is the clock once again ticking down.
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Is it possible
that after years of underperformance and disappointment, the front office is scared to just burn it down and go through a full rebuild for fear of even further losing/ alienating their fanbase?
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 7, 2012 11:07 AM EST via Android app reply actions
I'm just not sure how the alienation could get any worse.
Your cannonball trajectory, it always gave me hope
Agreed
Oh, fans and sportswriters and newscasters will howl more if the Orioles trade Adam Jones or Nick Markakis, or release Brian Roberts, or what have you — but attendance last year was was 26th out of 30 teams, just 21,943. Pretty much the only people attending games now are diehard baseball fans who are going to attend regardless of what’s on the field (and tourists, and people looking for a night out, and other similarly inelastic patrons).
I cannot imagine that there’s much more of a floor below where things are now.
by AndrewTorrez on Feb 7, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
And the only thing that's gonna drive away the die hards...
is the continued refusal to actually commit to a realistic plan of action. I know I’m getting tired of this crap. I may not be giving the team up, but I’m getting less interested in volunteering myself for yearly heartache and disappointment.
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
Absolutely
That’s been the source of my frustration on these boards the past few days. What is the plan? Have they really had much of one all these many years?
"Have a good time...all the time." - Viv Savage
They might think that
but I’m not sure it’s possible to lose more at this point
If that's the case
then they might as well move the damn team to Vegas. The current crop isn’t going to turn the corner and while it’d be tough to see fan favorites shipped out I don’t know how else the team starts to improve.
by SkinsOsTerps on Feb 7, 2012 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
There is a nontrivial chance this is what they believe.
Here and there we hear comments about “getting to 82 wins” or something. That’s what we hear in the offseason. Then when the summer rolls around it’s an endless stream of stories about how to not get to 100 losses.
If they’re scared about “burning it down” then that’s pretty silly because it’s already burning down.
"So I said, 'Looks like they've finally got Ogea in the pen. I wonder if the glove fits.' I thought I was going to get fired." - Mike Flanagan, RIP
by Eat More Esskay on Feb 7, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
I wonder if DD doesn't have a lot of confidence in the development system
Consider what happened with the Cavalry. Instead of high risk/reward types, he’s going with low risk/reward
Which people claim that their team can defeat our professional football squad?
I could see this
and also that he’s not really comfortable with his knowledge of the system and their personnel just yet to take a risk like trading an Adam Jones for prospects, but he better get comfortable real quick.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I can stop posting now
because this piece is virtually exactly what I was trying to say on the other thread, only better. Good work, Andrew G.
by AndrewTorrez on Feb 7, 2012 11:18 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Team Andrew!
"End of season like this, to make Boston go home sad, crying, I’ll take it all day."—Robert Andino
by zknower on Feb 7, 2012 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think this echoes what a lot of us are thinking
Heck, I was putting together a post on it (slow day at work)… but well said. Mayhap I’ll still put something together, but eh, would probably just be saying the same things.
Buster Olney's take
It’s similar to Robothal.
The fact is that Guthrie doesn’t have a ton of trade value now that he’s less than a year from free agency, so forget the notion that Baltimore was going to get some high-end prospect for him.
But what is confounding about the deal is that it really leads to nowhere in the Orioles’ big-picture need to improve. Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom, the two pitchers that Baltimore acquired, make about as much money as Guthrie, so the O’s didn’t save any cash. And if Hammel has another season as rough as last year, when he lost his spot in the Colorado rotation, then he will be a non-tender candidate next fall. Similarly, Lindstrom will be a non-tender candidate if the Orioles don’t pick up his option.
This deal is all about 2012 for the Orioles, and given the incredible power of the division — with the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays all significantly better than Baltimore on paper- there’s almost no chance Baltimore will contend. Why not hang onto Guthrie for the first few months of the season, as a credible innings-eater, and then swap him for a secondor third-tier prospect who has a chance to make the Orioles better in the future?
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
not sure why the striked out font showed up. sorry folks.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Just to nit pick
If you get two pitchers for the price of one, isn’t that actually saving a bit of money?
by InfrasonicTom on Feb 7, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
not when the money you're paying those two pitchers is more than the money you were paying the original one
clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose...
Now I think about Adam Jones. Jones is another player that has been the subject of trade rumors, who is more valuable to a contending team than to the Orioles, and who almost definitely would be worth good prospects from a contending team.
At least DD tried to pry away one of the ATL’s top pitching prospects this winter. But I agree, Jones isn’t going anywhere.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I'm willing to be a bit more patient with DD on Jones
from a risk management perspective, trading Jones is a MUCH bigger risk than trading Guthrie. DD has to be comfortable in his (or the folks that work for him) assessment of Jones’ current abilities and development potential, figure out what the market is and where the best return is in terms of trade partners, and then be confident enough in our minor league system and player development that whatever pieces we get back for Jones will put us in a good position going forward. That’s a lot to get straightened out in the short time he’s been there. Obviously he’ll have to do it ASAP, but I’m not quite at the point where I’m lumping DD in with Andy in terms of sitting on assets until they’re not longer valuable.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Y'r right Andrew_G.The Orioles have never been agressive in acquiring top prospects!
Not only the Orioles haven’t been aggressive about rebuilding their talent base through prospects-for-veterans trades. But also on the international market, the Orioles were not agressive in scouting and signing top prospects, lately.
In the past, the Orioles were the first Major League organisation exploring and scouting new areas outside the US looking for prospects. But remaining still passive in signing top prospects, only signing some quantity of low talented players with an ineffective reward for the organisation. Maybe that’s looking for the diamond in the rough policy.
And now with the new management, the Orioles till now are not spending a lot of money in signing bonus for top prospects. Maybe there is a question! Why?
In reading around the various Hammel articles today.
It’s interesting, but not surprising, that between my article, Andrew’s article, Camden Depot, and the Loss Column are all wondering the same thing. Where is the young talent and what is DD doing to acquire it?
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
What, if anything, is DD doing, I wonder, to fix the Orioles scouting/drafting/talent-development ability?
(sorry…didn’t meant to post a thought I hadn’t really finished and don’t have time to finish right now) but until the Orioles can consistently produce home-grown major league caliber talent they don’t have a chance. The Yankees, PHN, and Phillies, for example, are all big spenders in free agency but did have a core of homegrown talent. The Rays, obviously.
Getting prospects in this trade would have been more valuable for a team that’s so far from contention, but the organization seems so inept at talent development that one trade wouldn’t have made a difference. “Yay, we got prospects from (insert team here)! More Orioles prospects that’ll never live up to the hype.”
according to DD
He’s hired the right people!
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
That’s what they all say….they all say “d’oh”.
by BrianS on Feb 7, 2012 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
they always say
“Last year our guys I think showed up to Spring Training thinking they had a job waiting for them”
“We’ve needed to upgrade our player development staff and prioritize that, and we haven’t done that in the past.”
“This year it’s going to be different!”
Your cannonball trajectory, it always gave me hope
DD's core competency is in judging talent and implementing a system of processes. Don't you know?!
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
well said andrew
Although I have to say, I was encouraged to hear about the trade with Atlanta that didnt happen although I wouldn’t have been the biggest fan of bringing jurjens and prado over. Let’s hope that Diamond Dan is holding out for something more fruitful. Because everybody knows we’re not catching Cito this year…
"you know what the orioles could use right now? a day off." - joe angel
There are a few things conspiring against the Orioles,
the fact that prospects are seriously overvalued really hurts bad teams. Bad timing for the Orioles I guess.
It’s also true that season after season of losing creates an increased sense of desperation amongst ownership, the fanbase and the front office. Of course, this simply exacerbates the situation because the Orioles wind up wasting money and playing time on guys who have no business being a rebuilding club.
Really the only path to the Orioles not forever sucking is to develop a top flight drafting and development model. And the Orioles certainly lack the infrastructure on the second point. Maybe Duquette can make the required changes, and maybe he can’t. We’ll see I guess in five years.
Not to be dramatic, but over the last 14 seasons, never have I felt this defeated as a fan in large measure to the points that you raise in this piece, Andrew.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
by dfa on Feb 7, 2012 3:36 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Playing in a winterleague is also part of player development!
To develop a player, a Major League organisation need coaches with good knowledge of baseball techniques, if they are pitching or batting coaches. But the most important thing in a organisation is to combine the scouting with player development. For example; scouting prospect with only high tools; strong arm, athleticism, speed, etc.
If a prospect has some problem make it the Bigs, he can switch from a position to another and do it successfully. An example of player development is; Dodgers 6-foot-5 pitcher Kenley Jansen, who has learn to pitch successfully with Dodgers minorleague pitching coach Charlie Hough.
I think this is the 2nd time you've brought up winter leagues
do you have a sense that the O’s use the winter leagues differently or less effectively than other teams? I’ve never heard anything about that before so I’m curious where it’s coming from.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
last, i saw ryan lavarnway(red sox prospect) playing with the bravos de margarita
he has played some games and then he stopped, due to illnes. i didn’t see some of our players in the winterleagues. it’s a pitty, i think, becuase you can still try to experiment some pitches if you’r a pitcher. And keep develop your baseball techniques and gaining more baseball routine as pitcher or position player.
So you don't have any information
to support your thesis that the O’s aren’t leveraging the winter leagues as much as other teams?
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
we are also too passive in this department, prospects development
If you look at the Cincinnati Reds 40 man roster, the national league 2010 division champion, you can find ten players, who have played winterleague(w.l.) or high level competition after the season(h.a.s.). Some; Neftali Soto, Donald Lutz, Juan Francisco, Henry Rodriguez, Didi Gregorius, Kyle Lotzkar, etc.. etc..
Our team;Pedro Strop(w.l.), Joe Mahoney(h.a.s.)! Endy Chavez(w.l.) and Wilson Betemit(w.l.) are new signings.
The Cincinnati Reds organisition has a lot of minor league prospects who have played in the w.l. or h.a.s.! There is a ratio of three Reds prospects to one Oriole prospect playing in the w.l. or h.a.s.!
In the minors;some of ours Aussies;Mychal Givens(h.a.s), Brenden Webb(h.a.s), Aron Baker(h.a.s.), Edgardo Baez(w.l.), Miguel Abreu(w.l.), etc… Xavier Avery(h.a.s), etc… John Schoop(h.a.s) became IBAF World Champion.
Are you just talking about this particular season?
Because lots of guys on our team have played in the AFL.
But also a lot of Reds prospects have played in the AFL
Our team; Joe Mahoney, Xavier Avery, Steve Jonnson, Casey Lambert, Cole Mc Curry and Sean Gleason have played AFL. Greg Miclat, Buck Britton and Steven Lerud played after the regular season in Panama.
Our farmsystem is not sound, we have a lot of old prospects in our organisation and we missed some international top prospects. If we take away Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado and Schoop from the farm, we keep only old guys and some promising prospect in; Glynn Davis, Eduardo Rodriguez and Roderick Bernadina.
Now, lets hope, it’s going to be a break out year for them.
Just curious,
Do you have any data that suggests that these leagues aid in player development?
I’m not trying to be rude, I’ve just never seen any analysis of the leagues, or comparisons between players who played winter ball and players who had a different offseason routine.
The way you’re counting players and comparing them to the Red’s system just seems a bit premature if we don’t really know that 120 PAs in the AFL is definitely better than having a full, structured plan for the offseason, or something like that.
Logica! some players don't have to play winterleague or in other league to be a ...
Superstar, because they have to much talent, but there are some others, who must try to develop some routine or learn some things…. ! Some prospects can reach the Bigs at age 19 and be successfull.
We want to be successfull, that why i took a division winner as example. We have to learn from other organisation.
Okay.
You make a good point, winter leagues are probably more relevant for lesser prospects and rehabbers, but I’d still like to see some kind of study or analysis.
skills development and durability
winterleague(w.l.) or high level competition after the season(h.a.s.) is relevant to all kinds of prospects. Because in the major leagues,some position players need to play 180 games a year and some pitchers need to throw 140 to 200 innings a year.
That's also why players make the jump from short to long season before coming to the majors.
Winter ball is not essential for everybody and there’s often very good reason that lots of guys don’t play it.
O'sFan21, you are right!
Winter ball is not essential for everybody(mean prospect, i think) and there’s often very good reason that lots of guys don’t play it.
I think a pichter like Dylan Bundy don’t need it, because he has tremendous work ethic. And some prospects can play lesser games as a rookie and then play the whole season next year. Or some have a very natural strong body and could play the whole season without getting tired.
I have no idea, but...
It’s two players for one. Lindstrom has the potential to be an important reliever. If memory serves me right, hasn’t he served as a closer before? Regardless, here are my thoughts:
1) Hammel is a Guthrie 2.0 statistically, but four years younger, and has some potential if he works up consistency.
2) If Lindstrom finds himself and turns into a solid reliever, he could be trade bait later on in the year. Perhaps we can let him go to a contender that’d be willing to give up some younger talent at that point.
Let’s face it: Guts won’t be getting any better. With this deal… in the good scenario we can get a middle-of-the-rotation starter in Hammel and a respectable young guy if Lindstrom solidifies himself and we trade him. In a not-so-good scenario, Hammel at least has some more time, and we’ve added depth to our bullpen.
and furthermore
doesn’t his team friendly contract make him MORE tradeable now rather than less so?
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
It's still a risk.
Hardy is one of my favorite players, but I’m worried about keeping him around too long. He’s a middle infielder with an injury history. Last season, he posted the highest HR/FB rate of his career (4.1% above his career average), his isolated power was .050 higher than his career average, and his walk rate was well below the league average and his career average. I really hope he can keep up his performance from last year, but there are reasons to believe that Hardy’s going to take a hit from some regression and/or injuries.
When teams trade for injury-risk players, they’re usually looking to fill in gaps for their playoff runs, as the Cardinals did with Rafael Furcal. Hardy could have been traded in his age-28 peak season, but instead he probably won’t be traded until his age-31 season when his value could be considerably lower.
I'm not suggesting keeping him around too long.
I merely asked the question about whether his below market contract makes him more attractive to trade for rather than this past year when he was a 6 week rental. I’d still vote for trading him this year.
Fair enough.
I’m just saying that his contract might not be a huge difference because it doesn’t look like teams are willing to give up much for perceived injury risks, so I couldn’t see Hardy being traded until he sheds that reputation or he becomes a rental.
Could be
but if he’s putting together the kind of year he had last year and stays healthy through the deadline I could see him being pretty attractive.
"Pretty attractive?"
If JJ puts up the same numbers this year as he did last (and he should if he stays off the DL), the O’s should have no problem trading him for at least a couple solid prospects. He was one of the better SS in the game last year.
Please come back Koji, we miss you.
You done made my momma sad, Camden Chat. Shame on you. - duck
Not demonstrated
“Yes, Jason Hammel is not as good a pitcher as Jeremy Guthrie…”
You have to demonstrate that instead of just say it, or parrot national writers that don’t always pay attention. For example, someone else said:
“Jason Hammel is really underrated. He had a bad year last year, fueled by a lower than usual BABIP, but his 09+10 campaigns were stellar, his FIPs and xFIPs were between 3.66 and 3.76 and his WAR was 3.9 both years. Add a good defense behind him and you’ll get a sub 3.50 ERA. He’s also been used sparingly for some reason, always around 180 IP, he’s got a lot of milage left too. That’s a good, solid pitcher.
Guthrie is almost the opposite, never had more than a 2.6 WAR, more wear on his arm, pretty awful peripheral stats, his FIPs and xFIPs are always around 4.50. He has a rep for some reason I guess because he was the “ace” of a terrible team. I’d take Hammel over him 100% of the time. Nice win by the Orioles here. "
You might disagree, but at least he has a real reason. What’s yours?
As for holding on to Scott for too long, they held on to him because he was inexpensive and hit well. He had an excellent 2010, and good years before that.
Really, sometimes I get the idea people think being a GM is like trading baseball cards. “We’ve got a good player? Flip him for prospects now!”
And how did that work out for us with Bedard and Tejada? I’d love to hear how we could have done better prospect wise with those trades.
If you think Camden Yards is empty now, just wait until the 25-man roster is filled with Josh Bells, Steve Johnsons, and Chris Tillmans.
But some people would like that. Give them another reason to complain.
paging o'sfan21....paging o'sfan21...
having you been paying attention to any of the discussion that’s been going on around here? I’m not trying to discredit the argument that Hammel is better than Guthrie, but I think there are literally hundreds of comments in this thread (and others) made by Andrew G (and others) arguing about what makes Guthrie better than Hammel. To say he doesn’t have a reason to say that is just obtuse and makes it hard to take you seriously.
You have to demonstrate that instead of just say it, or parrot national writers that don’t always pay attention.
The fact that he was 1 fWAR player last year, experienced a sharp drop in SOs, and taken out of the rotation are all pieces of evidence. Doesn’t prove he’ll be crappy next year, but these aren’t pieces of evidence to be dismissed either.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
I feel like we've probably argued this enough, but...
If the Orioles continue to hold on to players like Scott and Guthrie and Jones – quality players with few remaining years of control; players who aren’t going to be the difference between 86 and 88 wins because the rest of the team is not currently good enough – they are wasting the opportunity to trade for younger players with more service time and more potential. How can use the Bedard and Tejada trades as arguments against this strategy?
WAR In Years Under Team Control After Trade*
Name________fWAR____avgfWAR____rWAR____avgrWAR___Salary___avgSalary
Miguel Tejada___6.1______3.1_________2.2_______1.1______29.622____14.811
Luke Scott______6.0______1.5_________7.0_______1.8______13.280_____3.320
Erik Bedard_____2.9______1.5_________2.2_______1.1______14.750_____7.375
Adam Jones____9.1______ 2.3________10.2_______2.6_______4.540_____1.135
Scott/Jones is a much better value for similar production to Tejada/Bedard, and that doesn’t mention that the O’s have two more years of Jones and they also got other players in those deals. Sure, most of the others didn’t develop like they could have, but at least the Orioles had the opportunity to develop more good players and add to the value that Scott and Jones were already producing.
*Sorry for the weird formatting. Sbnation doesn’t seem to like tables in comments.
Optimism or delusions of adequacy?
The Lions made the playoffs this year.
Last night the Islanders got to .500. The last time they were that good this late in the season Duck was in college.
Could the Os be part 3 of this rapidly improving trifecta of suck?
"You should put the secret group of people that you carry with you on your tech equipment second to the person you're sitting with."
- Merrill Markoe
The Islanders are a perfect example of why the O's will never be good
that organization has been run horribly for quite some time now. But even in a good year, they probably aren’t going much over .500 because 4 of the top 5 teams (points wise) in that conference play in their division.
Now, in the NHL there are 5 spots that you can use to get into the playoffs without winning your division, but the unbalanced schedule means that they are going to be playing the best teams in their conference more often than anyone else.
In MLB, we face the same hardships, but we only have 1 playoff spot to chase after, and there’s no salary cap. Basically, we are much, much more hopeless than the Islanders. How’s that for optimism?
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
if you're looking in baseball
the Royals and Pirates are a better bet than the Orioles.
actually, pretty much any team is a better bet than the O’s.
Anyone hear Ricky Williams on the radio this morning?
Clearly he did the “wake & bake” thing before calling in.
Mike & Mike & whoever the 3rd guy on the air with them was could barely figure out what he was trying to say. It was a hoot.
"You should put the secret group of people that you carry with you on your tech equipment second to the person you're sitting with."
- Merrill Markoe
Sorry that was meant for the open thread
"You should put the secret group of people that you carry with you on your tech equipment second to the person you're sitting with."
- Merrill Markoe
Not a Big Haul For JG
I think a lot of the analysis is correct – Guthrie just wasn’t at the peak of his market attractiveness, that time had past. The O’s also were not going to pay him close to $11m to lose 17 games for them (with more run support he would win many more games, I know). If Guthrie were a free agent, would anyone have paid $11m for him? I think not. I would have rather seen some youth come back in the trade, but at least these two guys can play in ’12 and add some depth to the roster.
Yeah, I think it's interesting that Guthrie and his agent tried to reach that high in arbitration.
Third year non-Super 2 arbitration eligible players generally make around 80% of their free agent market value, so by submitting their $10.25M figure, Guts and his agent seem to think that he could get around $12.8M as a free agent, especially when Edwin Jackson just settled for 1 year and $11M. That seems way too high. I see him getting something more along the lines of Jake Westbrook’s 2 years, $16.5M from the Cardinals.
Rockies factor
Maybe this is a reach, but perhaps the O’s factored in some home+away park metrics / statistics regarding these two new pitchers throwing in Camden Yards vs. the deep ball friendly land of Colorado? Perhaps they assessed that the ERAs were inflated because of this? I’m trying to go “think outside the box Moneyball style” here.
I’m prepared to be destroyed if this is a ridiculous notion lol
"Birdland is the belief that as great as today just was, tomorrow might be even better." -EME
by OriolesOptimist on Feb 8, 2012 1:40 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Not ridiculous at all. In fact, I hope they didn't just look at raw ERA.
There are a few statistics that take park factors into account, like ERA+. This normalizes a pitcher’s ERA so that it can be comfortably compared with any other pitcher in that league. It’s not perfect, but then no stat is.
Guts ERA+ 2011/career: 95/105
Hammel ERA+ 2011/career: 94/92
Please come back Koji, we miss you.
You done made my momma sad, Camden Chat. Shame on you. - duck
good to know
thanks for the additional info on this
"Birdland is the belief that as great as today just was, tomorrow might be even better." -EME
by OriolesOptimist on Feb 9, 2012 7:31 AM EST up reply actions
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