No one in their right mind expected the Orioles to come into the last day of April with a .500 record, and most certainly not 6 games above .500. This post highlights the next 16 calendar days, in which the Orioles may have the hardest stretch of 15 games all season.
In the comments, make a guess on how many wins the O's get in the next 15 games. I am going to go with 7 (7-8). Closest guess wins the amazing prize of bragging rights!
All Stats are as of the morning of April 30th
Orioles brief Stat look -
wOBA- .320 (11th)
OPS - .742 (8th)
BABIP - .284
3.06 (7th) / 3.99 (20th) / 4.02 (22nd)
Sabre folks will say we have been a bit lucky with our pitching. A regression should be apparent by May 15th, but an improvement from Mark Reynolds, Markakis, and JJ Hardy could help keep the Ws coming.
Series 1 - @ MFY (12-9)
wOBA - .363 (1st)
OPS - .833 (1st)
BABIP - .290
4.49 (25th) / 3.95 (17th) / 3.46 (4th)
Coming into Monday night, the stats would have it that the Yankees aren't getting good luck from their pitching, but are raking in the runs as much as ever. This series will definitely be a test of the Orioles' true talent.
Series 2 - @BOS (10-11)
wOBA - .344 (4th)
OPS - .797 (3rd)
BABIP - .324
5.52 (29th) / 4.80 (28th) / 4.16 (27th)
While Boston has gotten "hot", it was against the White Sox and the lowly Twins. With one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball, look for some high scoring games as Andino leads the pack in attempting to crush Bostonian's souls.
Series 3 - TEX (4 Games) (16-6)
wOBA - .359 (2nd)
OPS - .830 (2nd)
BABIP - .324
2.89 (4th) / 3.09 (2nd) / 3.61 (7th)
Even if Josh Hamilton is out this series, this is a team that can light you up in every spot in the order. On top of that, they are putting on a better pitching show than ever, with damn good starters and the best relievers in baseball (1st in ERA, FIP, xFIP)
Series 4 - TB (14-8)
wOBA - .337 (5th)
OPS - .775 (5th)
BABIP - .294
4.14 (21st) / 3.97 (19th) / 3.97 (20th)
For a team that is supposed to be just pitching and defense, Tampa has had some filthy good hitting to pair with mediocre pitching. One of their best hitters thus far, Luke Scott, is streaky as we all know. The rest of their hot hitters have high BABIPs, so they could be in for a little regression despite a currently normal BABIP. Then again, their pitching could start pitching like last year and the O's are royally fucked.
Series 5 - NYY (2 Games)
Complete Summary - In the stretch from now until May 15th, the Orioles do not play a team who is below top 5 in hitting. Combine that with an expected regression from our pitching, and it could be a bumpy ride where the hitting has to show up to win. It will important to not get into a funk, because if the O's struggle to perform at their best we could easily be talking about a 10+ game slide.
My brain says we don't even win 7 games, but my heart thinks we will win 15. So if I average my heart and my brain, I will pick us to go (7-8)
How many do you think they will win? Post in the Comments!
(All stats courtesy of fangraphs.com)