FanPost

The Tough Road Ahead

The Orioles. Winners of 9 of 12. Defiers of expectations, "math", "statistics", Greek philosophers, ESPN analysts. Owners of Manny Machado, extra innings, one-run games, second place in "baseball's toughest division", and, among Wild Card contenders... one of the toughest roads ahead.

Team

Record

Games Remaining

Home Games

Div Games

Games vs Contenders

Avg Opp W-L%

NYY

66-46

50

25

34

23

0.508

TEX

65-46

51

25

19

28

0.501

CHW

61-50

51

25

28

23

0.490

BAL

61-52

49

25

31

26

0.518

DET

61-52

49

25

32

21

0.486

TBR

60-52

50

22

25

29

0.520

OAK

60-52

50

21

20

28

0.510

LAA

60-53

49

28

24

26

0.507

About half of the Orioles' remaining games are at home. This is more or less in line with the rest of the AL Wild Card contenders contained in the table above. The Rays, perhaps the O's most important obstacle to the postseason, typically perform better at the Trop than away, have the second fewest (22) home games remaining.

31 of Baltimore's 49 remaining games are against teams in the AL East, and 26 come against contenders. (If you include the Red Sox as a "contender", which I did not do, that second number jumps all the way to 35.) The only teams with more remaining games vs divisional opponents are Detroit - for whom divisional games may be an advantage given the weakness of the AL Central - and New York. Only 3 of the 8 teams have more remaining games against Wild Card contenders.

If we use the average winning percentage of remaining opponents as a measure of toughness of the road ahead, it's more bad news - the O's have one of the toughest remaining schedules, second (barely) to the Rays. Detroit and Chicago, again, appear to be heavily aided by the weakness of the AL Central.

This is not to say we should abandon ship, just to point out that stormy seas could lie ahead and if the ship sinks we shouldn't be totally surprised or disappointed - it's already been fun for much longer than most of us expected. But, as has been noted here and elsewhere, the 2012 Orioles have, for 113 games, made a habit of blatantly disregarding all expectations and predictions placed upon them, and there's simply no reason to believe they can't do it for 49 more.

Just in case, buckle up folks - it's gonna be a fun, bumpy ride.

FanPosts are user-created content and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editors of Camden Chat or SB Nation. They might, though.

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