I'm tired of everybody talking about how wonderful the Toronto Blue Jays are. Everybody is so quick to look at their flashy moves this offseason and project them all the way to the World Series. Well I disagree and I'm going to tell you why...
Lets start with the most recent addition to the Blue Jays, 2012 NL CY Young winner R.A. Dickey.
This is not to take away from the season that Dickey had last year but come on, it is unlikely that he will repeat those numbers. Why you ask? Well for one thing RA Dickey started throwing a Knuckleball before last year, and he wasn't exactly an ace... or even a well known player before last year. Oh and he is in his 40s. Also, the Knuckleball is a fickle mistress, he may have had it working last year, but he is in the AL East now. I think RA Dickey will be alright for the Blue Jays this year but he will not come anywhere close to repeating his performance from last year.
Next lets look at the other two pitchers that the Blue Jays added this offseason. Josh Johnson and Mark Buerlhe. Both of these pitchers have put up good numbers in the past. But if you look at the years that they were successful and the divisions they were in when they had all this success. Lets start with Josh Johnson, looking at his stats you will see he was very good in 2009 and in 2010. But what people forget to take into account is the fact that he pitched in the NL East before the Nationals and the Braves were good teams. And lets not also forget that he has a history of injury problems. Now for Mark Buerlhe. Buerlhe was solid on the White Sox his avg ERA with the Sox was 3.83 over 12 seasons. Respectable I suppose, until you consider that when he was on the Sox the AL Central was arguably one of the worst divisions in baseball. He got to play against the Indians, Twins, Royals, and Tigers. Buerlhe's numbers would be really impressive if he hadn't spent the majority of his career pitching to glorified minor league teams (Royals and Indians).
What about the other moves they made, well lets see...
Melky Cabrera is probably going to get hit with some kind of backlash for his involvement in that Miami Biogenesis, clinic especially after coming off of a 50 game PED suspension to close out 2012. He isn't a bad player but he keeps getting in his own way.
Jose Reyes was alright last year. He managed to stay healthy for the second straight season but I was overall unimpressed. He was a star on an otherwise terrible, and overhyped Marlins team. Reyes had a down year in 2012, and in my opinion I don't see a move to the toughest division in baseball as a sign that he is going to find the fountain of youth this year.
I also want to take this opportunity to point out how awesome the Marlins were last year with Josh Johnson, Mark Buerlhe, and Jose Reyes on their team... What's that? The Marlins sucked last year... They were god awful. The Marlins didn't trade away the core of their team because they were awesome... There is a reason the Marlins jettisoned all of these players. And the Blue Jays are going to find out why this year.
As for the rest of the Blue Jays....
Edwin Encarnacion was on fire last year. He was amazing. He has also never ever come close to having a season that good before in his 8 year career. He is also 30 years old and not getting any younger.
Jose Bautista was hurt for most of last year. Were he still in his 20s, I wouldn't think twice about the injury. But the fact remains that he is 32 years old. And a wrist injury like the one he sustained last season could have a lasting impact on this season.
I think the Blue Jays will preform much like the Miami Marlins did last year. They will start off hot and everybody will praise them as if they were the second coming of Jesus, but by the time the All-Star break rolls around they will have all but dropped off the radar. There are just too many question marks surrounding the Blue Jays season, and lets not forget that they traded Noah Syndergaard, one of the BEST left handed starting pitching prospects in baseball, and Travis D'Arnaud, who is being hailed as the next Mike Piazza. Along with most of their other top prospects to get a bunch of players who are in their 30s.