Series Preview: O's vs. Red Sox (27- 29 Sept.)

Tillman will start the O's final game - Patrick Smith

The O's finish out the season against the Boston Red Sox. Feldman, Chen, and Tillman for the O's. Buchholz, Lester, Lackey for the Red Sox.

Friday, 27 September:  Scott Feldman vs. Clay Buchholz
Career Numbers Feldman vs. Red Sox
Buchholz vs. O's
IP 33.0 91.0
ERA 4.09 3.36
FIP 5.26 4.41
Slash Line (Past Teams) .254/.329/.408 .232/.327/.356
Slash Line (Current Players) .337/.400/.584 .242/.340/.376

Feldman has middling numbers against the Red Sox, but the worst of those have come from getting smoked in three trips to Fenway.  He's been better against the lineup away from that park.  Additionally, he's been rather solid at Camden Yards, allowing a .636 OPS.  He has started just 4 times against the Red Sox.  The current lineup appears to mash him, with 4 of the 5 hitters who have 10+ PA sporting an OPS greater than 1.00 (ouch).

Clay Buchholz once no-hit the O's.  In his second major league start.  Not great times.  The good news is, he's been hittable at Camden Yards, allowing an .806 OPS against in 8 starts (his Fenway starts against the O's have been really solid).  Oriole hitters should consider investing in some kevlar, however, as Buchholz has plunked 5 in 91 innings.  Brian Roberts, Chris Davis, and J.J. Hardy have managed respectable lines against Buchholz.  Nick Markakis?  Not so much (.441 OPS).

Saturday, 28 September:  Wei-Yin Chen vs. Jon Lester
Career Numbers Chen vs. Red Sox
Lester vs. O's
IP 33.2 151.1
ERA 5.08 2.80
FIP 4.49 3.41
Slash Line (Past Teams) .328/.367/.533 .250/.314/.372
Slash Line (Current Players) .346/.393/.591 .196/.297/.250

Wei-Yin Chen has been knocked around pretty well by the Red Sox in his short career.  It's been 6 pretty tough starts.  He's averaged fewer than 6 innings per start and has allowed 5 homers, which is just three fewer than Buchholz has allowed in 90+ innings against the O's.  Fairly small sample of ABs from the current lineup, but Dustin Pedroia again holds a 1.00+ OPS over 18 PA.

Jon Lester is 15-3 lifetime against the Orioles.  That's pretty solid.  Pitcher wins are meaningless stats, but his numbers back up his Oriole dominance pretty well.  Going back to that homer number, he's allowed just 10 in 151.1 innings.  Dan Johnson is 2-3 and Danny Valencia has a .929 OPS in 14 PA.  Beyond that, it's been slim pickings for the O's.  Both Nick Markakis and Chris Davis have sub-.600 OPS.

Sunday, 29 September:  Chris Tillman vs. John Lackey
Career Numbers Tillman vs. Red Sox
Lackey vs. O's
IP 57.1 158.2
ERA 2.35 3.35
FIP 2.98 3.58
Slash Line (Past Teams) .219/.286/.316 .258/.301/.386
Slash Line (Current Players) .239/.318/.407 .245/.299/.363

The final game of the season falls to Chris Tillman.  He holds excellent numbers against the Red Sox in 10 starts.  He hasn't been the most efficient starter over that period, but he's kept both his ERA and FIP below 3.00 and maintains an excellent OPS against.  Stephen Drew and Shane Victorino have been good in limited ABs, but we've finally found a starter who can get Dustin Pedroia out (although he still maintains a .704 OPS).  David Ortiz has been held to a .285 OPS.

John Lackey is another Red Sox starter with an outstanding career record (13-5) against the Orioles.  His numbers also back that up.  His OPS against is a tick higher at Camden Yards, but still pretty solid.  Nick Markakis has done a little damage over 60 PA (no home runs, of course) and Chris Davis sports a 1.073 OPS.  Since this is a Sunday game, it's possible Lackey sees a weaker lineup, but it does happen to be the last game of the year.

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