FanPost

Tillman No Ace, but a Durable Deuce



I disagree with Baltimore Sun Columnist Peter Schmuck that Chris Tillman produces like a No. 1 starter. If No. 1 Starter means one of the top 30 starting pitchers in Major League Baseball and production is measured strictly using ERA then Tillman falls outside the top 30. In 2014, Tillman ranked 31st out of 87 qualified starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.34. In 2013, his 3.71 ERA was 49th out of 79.

Schmuck did not solely rely on ERA but also used the obsolete winning percentage statistic to buoy his argument. A pitcher’s winning percentage is not indicative of his production and is heavily influenced by factors outside the pitcher’s control, such as run support, defense, park factors and the opposing pitcher.

Looking at more advanced metrics, such as FIP, K/9, BB/9 and HR/FB, which Schmuck ignored, further weaken any case of Tillman being an ace. As the tables below show, Tillman is average, at best, amongst starting pitchers in these categories.

Chris Tillman 2013 Pitching Ranks

Category

Value

AL Average

MLB Average

MLB Rank

MLB Percentile

FIP

4.42

4.08

3.95

58

27%

K/9

7.81

7.20

7.19

32

59%

BB/9

2.97

2.86

2.83

57

28%

HR/FB

14.20%

11.20%

10.80%

77

3%

In 2013, only Tillman’s strikeouts per nine innings were above the AL and MLB averages. He is horrible at keeping the ball in the park, ranking only above 3% of qualified starting pitchers in 2013.

Chris Tillman 2014 Pitching Ranks

Category

Value

AL Average

MLB Average

MLB Rank

MLB Percentile

FIP

4.01

3.85

3.81

63

28%

K/9

6.51

7.35

7.36

65

25%

BB/9

2.86

2.71

2.69

60

31%

HR/FB

8.30%

9.40%

9.80%

28

68%

Tillman improved his FIP in 2014 as he drastically reduced his HR rate and decreased his walk rate. However, his strikeout rate declined. While 2014 was a better year for Tillman than 2013, he is still below average compared to the other qualified starting pitchers.

While Tillman should be applauded for his ERA and is heralded in some circles for his stout winning percentage, Tillman is in no way an ace or even comparable to James Shields or Jon Lester, which Schmuck opines.

Sure, the ERA and wins are comparable, but of the factors in which Tillman has direct control – strikeouts, walks and homeruns – Tillman lags his two fellow pitchers. The table below combines the statistics from 2013 and 2014 for all three pitchers. Shields and Lester both have ERAs comparably closer to their FIP than Tillman, who has benefited from luck and an above-average defense. The only category that Tillman wins is the one in which starting pitchers have the least influence – winning percentage.

Tillman vs. Shields and Lester

Pitcher

Tillman

Shields

Lester

K/9

7.16

7.43

8.25

BB/9

2.92

1.7

2.39

HR/FB

11.20%

9.20%

7.80%

FIP

4.22

3.53

3.19

ERA

3.52

3.18

3.10

Win %

0.690

0.614

0.620

Schmuck, a veteran and respected sports columnist, also failed to define an ace, but quoted Orioles catcher Matt Wieters instead. While Wieters has a far superior baseball eye to mine, his opinion is heavily influenced because he works with Tillman on a regular basis and he does not see the production level of the other pitchers.

I, on the other hand, have a completely objective view and am relying on cold hard facts – data. By scouring data, I discovered that Tillman is a workhorse. His durability has a positive effect on the Orioles by allowing the bullpen to rest. He logged at least 200 innings in both 2013 and 2014. He ranks 14th out of 80 qualified pitchers over the two-year period with 413 2/3 innings pitched.

While the data shows that Tillman is no ace or a No. 1, his durability and his decent ERA, lucky or not, makes him a quality No. 2.

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