FanPost

Oh No! What are we going to do about the O's?

Before the season began, I told my friend (a Red Sox fan) that I would be shocked (yes, shocked) if the Orioles did not win the AL East. Currently, the Orioles are third in the division at 21-23, and just came off a series victory over World Series contender, The Houston Astros (who thought I’d ever write that sentence??). With the state of the AL East, I still stand by my statement that I would SHOCKED if the O’s do not win the division (if I keep writing it, maybe it’ll become true).

Let’s do a quick recap of the four other AL East Teams. The Red Sox, fifth in the division, decided to buy, I’m sorry "acquire," a slew of new talent this off season, much like they did long ago with Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. So far, they have a strong offense, which will only get better when Hanley Ramirez returns, but they have terrible pitching. Their starters have a 5.10 ERA. Enough said.

The Blue Jays, fourth in the division, made great moves this offseason with the acquisitions of Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson, the two best players on the team. Martin is hitting .273/.355/.500 with seven HRs and 23 RBIs. Donaldson is doing even better with a slash line of .314/.374/.590 with 13 homers and 35 RBIs. Offense, for this team, is not the problem. They too suffer from terrible pitching: 3.83 ERA for relievers and 5.00 ERA for starters.

In second place, the Tampa Bay Rays are once again defying expectations. They did a complete overhaul this offseason with the Will Meyers Trade and losing Joe Maddon to the Cubs. They’ve been benefiting from their strong pitching to combat their poor offense. Their starters have a 3.47 ERA. That’s over 1.5 fewer runs than the Sox and Jays.

Finally, and hopefully this does not remain true, the Yankees sit atop the AL East. A team old enough for the AARP league has found a spark this season. A-Rod is breaking records, Teixeira found his power, Ellsbury and Gardner are playing like All-Stars, and Pineda is kind of an ace. The Yankees have a strong bullpen, 3.17, but their starters could prove to be their demise. Tanaka is a big question mark, Sabathia might have lost it, and I’m not about to have faith in Adam Warren and Nathan Eovaldi.

I am not going to be shocked if the Orioles lose the division because they are amazing; I will be shocked because the AL East stinks this year. But, that being said, I think the Orioles have a lot of potential and will be exciting to watch the rest of the year. The reason for my optimism: healthy players. The O’s are a contender that has had some bad luck recently; hopefully, it does not become as bad as the Texans luck last year. With the return of players such as Matt Wieters, Ryan Flaherty, and Jonathan Schoop, it will be interesting to see how the depth chart changes. So, I want to explore the upcoming possibilities by splitting the team into categories and assigning players their positions: 1) The Mainstays 2) Returning Players and Moves 3) Speculation and the Future. I will only be looking at position players. I may throw out some ideas for the starting pitchers, but not the relievers (I can’t read Duquette’s mind).

The Mainstays

The Orioles only have a few players whose positions are locked (by locked I mean they will not play other positions; therefore, players like Jimmy Paredes will not be listed here as I believe he could be better suited in the field). Here are those players and their positions:

· Adam Jones CF

· Manny Machado 3B

· J.J. Hardy SS

· Caleb Joseph C

· Chris Davis 1B/DH

· Ryan Flaherty Utility Player (he’s a 2B fill in for now and he just returned from injury tonight)

This section is not very exciting, but it does establish that out of the 13 possible slots for position players, only six are somewhat definitive, four of which will be in the field every day (Chris Davis should be spending more time at DH).

Returning Players and Moves

The returning players will fill in most of the roster. Jonathan Schoop and Matt Wieters will be the two biggest additions to the lineup. Schoop will go back to playing second base everyday, while Weiters should move to the DH/1B position (alternating with Chris Davis). This idea came from Tyler Young in his article, "Should the Orioles mix it up at first base?" The answer is yes. With Wieters and Davis splitting time between 1B and DH, it gives Weiters a chance to get acclimated to the field and Davis can continue to try to hit (he does bring power). The bigger result of this would be that Caleb Joseph can continue to bat, .267/.358/.431 with 4 HR and 18 RBIs, while not sacrificing any defense.

Now, all of the positions are covered with the exception of the corner outfield spots. The O’s need Jimmy Paredes to keep playing, since he seems to be the only one who knows how to hit, so I propose they move him to RF. He has experience—he played 387 innings in RF while with the Astros—and he has to be just as good, if not better, than the other options: Davis or Young. Left Field, on the other hand, seems way more up in the air. It could be covered by a combination of Lough, Snider, and Young, but I would rather see the O’s make a trade. The ideal candidate being Scott Van Slyke, or another player that would not require a prospect in return.

This trade idea brings up a quick idea for the starting pitching. Bud Norris is expendable. At the beginning of the year, I thought it would Ubaldo Jimenez for Kevin Gausman, but now it seems Mike Wright can replace Norris. Gausman and Wright should both be starting (as soon as Gausman gets healthy), in which case I could see Miguel Gonzalez being relegated to the bullpen. Here would be the proposed starting five:

· Chris Tillman

· Ubaldo Jimenez

· Wei-Yin Chen

· Kevin Gausman

· Mike Wright

Gonzalez or Norris could be an intriguing trade option that would yield a decent starting outfielder and preserve the prospects. Moving them would allow younger pitchers to develop and build the team for the future. Anyway, back to the position players.

Speculation and the Future

Here is my proposed depth chart once injured players return:

Catcher

Caleb Joseph

Steve Clevenger

Matt Wieters

First Base

Chris Davis

Matt Wieters

Second Base

Jonathan Schoop

Ryan Flaherty

Third Base

Manny Machado

Ryan Flaherty

Jimmy Paredes

Shortstop

J.J. Hardy

Ryan Flaherty

Left Field

Travis Snider

David Lough

Delmon Young

Center Field

Adam Jones

David Lough

Right Field

Jimmy Paredes

Delmon Young

Designated Hitter

Matt Wieters

Chris Davis

Everth Cabrera and Steve Pearce would need to be cut for this roster. Cabrera has been a decent stop gap for Hardy and Schoop, but with the return of Flaherty, he is now expendable. Pearce, on the other hand, is a much more difficult situation. He’s a fan favorite (an rightfully so), has power and can play almost any position. However, he hits below the Mendoza Line (.190) and his defense abilities are now overshadowed by the return of Flaherty and moving Wieters to 1B/DH. This of course depends on how well Clevenger plays. If he hit poorly and struggles with defense, he could be moved and Pearce would remain. This would mean that Wieters plays more catcher early on in his return, but he could still primarily be the DH to give his arm some rest.

The biggest concern with this roster is the outfield, but that has been a problem for the O’s all season. Allowing Paredes to play in RF helps the lineup as Wieters and Joseph would both be able to play. Lough would provide strong defense in LF, but his offense remains a major problem. He has the potential to be a good number nine hitter, his career OBP is .308, and he provides some speed on the bases. I still believe that the O’s will trade for an outfielder, especially when they have the potential to be competitive in the AL East.

This lineup provides the best possible offense for the Orioles. It allows Flaherty, Young, and Lough to be bench players (where, as of right now, they belong), but it works under the assumption the Wieters will get back to where he was prior to the injury and that Davis will find his stroke (he hit 2 homers last night against the Astros). Also, I see this as the June depth chart. Wieters will eventually go back to playing catcher, and Joseph could move to DH. Clevenger would probably go back to the minors in July, if not earlier, which could allow for the O’s to call up Reimold to hopefully help the outfield. If the team cannot move up to first by the end of June, it may be time to look to trade Davis and Wieters. This would allow the team to rebuild and remain competitive in the future; however, I do think they can win now. I maybe a delusional fan, or I could just be a guy who trusts Buck, our offense, and see potential in the pitching/bullpen. The pieces are there, they just need to be properly ordered.


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