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Root, Root, Root: Why the Baltimore Orioles Will Go to the Playoffs

The 2006 Tigers continue to inspire me. That was a team you remember, even as just a dedicated baseball fan, having nothing to do with whether or not they're your team. The '98 Yankees were so dominant that they are another team that falls into that category, as well as the 2001 Mariners, and the 2001 A's, who in the second half of that regular season might have been the best team I've ever seen in my life.

The '05 Orioles are a team you remember, too, for falling apart so gloriously and on every level. One minute Erik Bedard is looking like a left-handed Greg Maddux, the next minute he's on the DL, and when he comes back, well, Greg Maddux he ain't. Rafael Palmeiro has 3,000 career hits, a lasting good impression to take out of a season that is rapidly losing its steam, and then, bam! Steroid suspension, mockery, etc. Sammy Sosa can't hit his way out of a paper bag all season and finishes on the DL, without even a proper goodbye and a "thanks for trying, guy." And to cap it all off, shithead Bubba Crosby runs Brian Roberts over. At that point, almost all we had left was Brian Roberts.

I think the 2007 Orioles could be a team to remember. But to build these movie-like teams, you need a cast. And I believe we have the makings of a good one.

Erik Bedard as The Ace Pitcher

You have to have an ace pitcher, and Bedard looks ready to me. After going 15-11 with a 3.76 ERA in 2006, Bedard could be primed to have a true breakout season in '07, and there are some good reasons to think this way.

After the All-Star break last year, Bedard posted a 3.10 ERA, and his K/9 jumped from 7.26 to 8.59. He also saw his HR allowed/9 drop to 0.41 from 0.99 in the first half of the season.

One thing Bedard does need to improve is his performance away from Camden Yards. At home, he was 9-4 with a 3.03 ERA, but on the road, 6-7 with a 4.69 ERA, quite a drastic difference. If Bedard can get his road numbers close to his home numbers, he could be an actual Cy Young contender.

If the Orioles are to make a surprise run, they'll need an ace, and Erik Bedard is by far the most likely candidate to fill the role. We've seen a small portion of a season in 2005 of Bedard pitching like a truly elite starter, and that went quite well.

If rookie Justin Verlander can do it, there's no reason that a guy with Bedard's stuff can't finally put it all together over an entire season.

Brian Roberts as The Sparkplug

The last two AL champions -- Chicago and Detroit -- have been surprises. Both were led by strong starting pitching (which we've touched on and will get further into in a moment), and both also had sparkplugs that turned it on in big moments. Some people call this "clutch," I suppose. Third basemen Brandon Inge of the Tigers and Joe Crede of the White Sox have filled this role, offensively and in the field.

The 2005 season also showed that Roberts has this ability. Two walkoff home runs against the Yankees early in the season have painted Roberts as a guy that could and should stand as a hero for a long time. The memories will always remain.

But Roberts does have some skill. Some Orioles fans may overrate him, but he is, in fact, one of the best second basemen in baseball. He's got a little pop, he's got great speed, he's solid defensively.

And Roberts just screams "sparkplug," anyway. All of his positive attributes are "sparkpluggy," he's short, he has a flair for the dramatic at the plate. Brian Bob will need to balance his 2006 splits, hopefully to hit for averages and get on base like he did prior to the All-Star break, and show the power he did afterward. If he does that, we could see a season closer to his outstanding '05 than his fairly good '06.

Miguel Tejada as The Troubled Star That Embraces a Leadership Role

Calling Miggi "troubled" might be a bit much, but he's certainly had his issues during his stay in Baltimore. After the 2005 season, our biggest offseason story was Tejada's desire to be traded, and his bashing of the front office for failing to improve the team. In the end, he wound up staying, as there wasn't a deal out there that the team felt made good sense.

Now, we have a different, more familiar Tejada on our hands. By all reports, he's anxious to win, and to do so as an Oriole. He is clearly the team's best player, an annual All-Star, and the lineup's anchor. Without Tejada, this team does not have a single legit right-handed power threat.

Tejada is in a position to become this team's leader, too. As the best player on the club and a fiery competitor, Tejada seems a natural fit for the role.

Tejada could also receive a lot of help in two areas with this: He's close with both Melvin Mora and Ramon Hernandez, both respected veterans, and he's part of a growing collective of players on the team with experience on playoff teams: Tejada, Hernandez, Chad Bradford, Steve Trachsel, Jamie Walker, Jaret Wright, Kevin Millar, and Jay Payton have all played in the postseason, and all except for Tejada have been added in the last two years. Maybe it's not by design, but the O's have collected a group of players that have the ever-important knowledge of how to win baseball games.

If Miggi can show the fire he did when he won the MVP with Oakland in 2002, he could do some special, special things this season. And I think he's just about ready to get back to being that guy.

Leo Mazzone as The Coach That Makes Things Happen

Mazzone's Atlanta staffs went to the postseason 15 years in a row, and for knowing how to win, you just can't beat that. He's also had a lot more to say this spring than he did last year, as he spent the majority of his first season with the Birds learning the pros and cons of his pitchers, and figuring out how to coach them individually.

Now, he's seeing results this spring. Bedard has been untouchable, and Cabrera's control has improved dramatically, which dates back to his return to Baltimore after minor league stints in Bowie and Ottawa last season.

Maybe he doesn't have Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz now, but there is serious talent here. Bedard, Cabrera and Loewen all have very good-to-great stuff, and he's had success in the past coaching Jaret Wright, plus he's had success with guys similar to Steve Trachsel in the past. And if all else fails, there's also Hayden Penn, whose only poor comparison to Trachsel is his lack of experience.

It's one of the mildly "sexy" picks of the spring, but with Mazzone at the helm and the collection of talented arms the O's have at their disposal, this truly could be the surprise rotation of 2007. And that doesn't even consider the upgraded bullpen, which should dramatically help the team's chances, without a bullpen blowing leads left and right.

Corey Patterson as Comic Relief That Does Some Things Well

Corey Patterson has movie star good looks, anyway. With Patterson apparently spending his spring cracking jokes and having fun with his teammates, it serves that Patterson could fill the role of Little Big League's Tucker Kain, played by Michael Papajohn. (Papajohn, incidentally, also appeared in The Babe, Mr. Baseball and For the Love of the Game.)

Kain was funny, one of the team's two jokesters -- along with reliever Bowers, played by Jonathan Silverman of Weekend at Bernie's fame, and for the Orioles, a role ably filled by newcomer Jamie Walker -- but he also made some spectacular plays in the outfield, which Patterson also has a habit of doing.

Hopefully we'll see Corey continue using his natural gifts to override his glaring weakness in the plate discipline department. Patterson has "old school" skills -- good glove, great speed, and an ability to bunt his way over to first base. He has the ability to be a superb role player, if not a superstar.

Let's not forget Nick Markakis as The Young Stud, Kevin Millar as The Veteran With a Heart of Gold, Melvin Mora as The Washed-Up(?) Former Star, and Sam Perlozzo as The Doubted Manager, who has already received great support from The Veteran With a Heart of Gold this spring for his hands-on managing.

It's far-fetched, but so were the Tigers and White Sox. Great things can happen, and sometimes great teams can fall out of the clear blue sky, even though if you look back, there was always a way to piece together a reason that it could happen. It relies on almost everything going right, but for a franchise where almost everything has gone wrong for a decade, I'm going to go ahead and say our team is due for something special. And when I look over this team's roster, and the makeup of these players, there's the fan in me that really can see this being a special ballclub.

We can win. Things are gonna change, I can feel it.

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'07 O's: Movin' on up!
Boswell says this team is potentially good for 82 wins. I say 85. You read it here first!

Think like a Russian: there are so many bad things ABSENT from this team that good can only follow.

Plus, Peter Angelos's pacemaker is going to fail some day soon during a traffic jam in the Harbor Tunnel, I just know it.

My fingers are crossed so tightly for this team that I'm losing circulation in both arms, but it's worth it. Dame Fortune is smiling on us - it's just a question of keeping her eye from wandering up 95 North for a couple months while we get grooved.

Excelsior,
Titov

by Titov on Mar 8, 2007 4:25 AM EST reply actions  

Inspiring!
I'm suddenly convinced the Orioles are as good as in the playoffs. I love spring training when I can feel this way.

by Stacey on Mar 8, 2007 7:33 AM EST reply actions  

Who are we kidding...
Bedard is going to miss 3 months due to injuries, Cabrera is never going to pan out, Loewen is just giving us false hope, Wright won't make more than 10 starts, and Trashcel is a joke.

On offense, our outfield is a joke, Markakis is going to have a sophmore slump, we have a soft hitting 1B, Roberts is little use for anything other than a few doubles and some decent speed, Mora is washed up, and Miggy has declining power.

The bullpen additions are nice, but the only thing you can ever count on from the bullpen is that they are unpredictable.

I'm an Orioles fan and this is what I've come to expect.

momma take a look now at what your boy has done; he's walking around like he's number one; he went downtown and bought him a gun.

by BirdFanInPhilly on Mar 8, 2007 8:37 AM EST reply actions  

OH MY GOD, what a buzzkill
BFIP, you have every right to be skeptial.

But it's Spring Training, dude. This is where Charlie Brown still feels he can punt the football, and Lucy is still holding it invitingly.

DRINK THE KOOL-AID, MAN! CHUG! CHUG! CHUG!

by zknower on Mar 8, 2007 8:55 AM EST up reply actions  

NO!
I've drank the Kool-Aid for the last several years and I've been wrong every year.  So now, I'm trying something different in the hope that I'm wrong again.

I'm thinking that maybe it was my optomisim(sic) that caused the O's to lose so much; so if I have to remain negative for a full year so that the O's can win, I'm willing to make that sacrafice.  I've got to try something here.

Only problem is if somehow they do end up looking like a winner in July, there is no way I'll be able to remain negative.  Good thing they won't do that though.

momma take a look now at what your boy has done; he's walking around like he's number one; he went downtown and bought him a gun.

by BirdFanInPhilly on Mar 8, 2007 9:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Negative
I tried that last year, my "I'm not going to believe or hope until you give me a reason to" approach.  And of course, they didn't.  But it was no fun.

So this year, I'm at least going to enjoy the optimism of spring.

Come on BFiP, drink the kool-aid, or at least couple  Natty Bohs

"Jaret Wright will be the missing piece in the Orioles quest to return to respectability." --- Jaret Wright's Mom

by BrianS on Mar 8, 2007 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Dude...
It's been 9 years, I've got to change something up.
momma take a look now at what your boy has done; he's walking around like he's number one; he went downtown and bought him a gun.

by BirdFanInPhilly on Mar 8, 2007 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Good shit, SC.
I'm on board, let's take this thing to the playoffs.
"Jaret Wright will be the missing piece in the Orioles quest to return to respectability." --- Jaret Wright's Mom

by BrianS on Mar 8, 2007 8:46 AM EST reply actions  

truly a great post
the parallels with one of the greatest works in modern cinema, Major League, are uncanny.

Consider:

Jake Taylor = Aubrey Huff
'Wild Thing' Vaughn = D Cab
Roger Dorn = Melving Melvin
Willie Mays Hayes = Patterson / Markakickass ?
Pedro Cerrano = Gibby
Evil Owner Lady = Angelos

I BELIEVE!!!!!!!!

by jeremy52 on Mar 8, 2007 9:38 AM EST reply actions  

damn
you beat me to it with Melmo=Dorn.

JR House can be that good-hearted and naive redneck kid from ML2

by pipkin on Mar 8, 2007 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

RE
I'd probably have to go with Millar as Jake Taylor.  The likable old guy towards the end of his career who was never quite a star, but was solid.

And how could you know go with Danny Cabs as Cerrano???

momma take a look now at what your boy has done; he's walking around like he's number one; he went downtown and bought him a gun.

by BirdFanInPhilly on Mar 8, 2007 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

also...
maybe millar not as the veteran w/ the heart of gold, but the genial redneck.  every sports movie seems to have one, though that could easily be walker, too.

i see the home road splits for bedard...does that capture pre/post all star break?

i was skeptical of the wbc effect during the season, but i've read some analysis that bolsters those claims.  mazzone could really be huge for d-cabs and loewen, i mean to the degree that the o's have a legit 1-2-3 combo.

by jq higgins on Mar 8, 2007 9:59 AM EST reply actions  

RE:
Redneck = Jamie Walker
momma take a look now at what your boy has done; he's walking around like he's number one; he went downtown and bought him a gun.

by BirdFanInPhilly on Mar 8, 2007 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Keep thinking positive
Every year I think we go through the same train of thought -- hope we will be good, but in the back of our minds are thinking disappointment.. and then it happens, but because we are all still thinking about it.  That is why losers keep being losers and winners keep being winners - independent of the circumstances.  You have got to believe (from game 1 to game 162) or else nothing good will happen.

This is probably the first year where things look to be going in the right direction.  There is no overhang/distractions from years past (Joey Belle's contract, Ponson, Palmero, Sosa, Expos/Nationals move), we've been able to dodge things that could have been (imagine if Jerry Hairston and Gary Matthews were still on this team), the people who matter and will prop this team on their backs are healthy, our position players are solid with a good mix of young and experienced, we have a solid bullpen, and if our young starters play to their talent we've got a very solid rotation.

The last time the O's made the playoffs was in 1997 so I think the stars a aligned for a run after a decade of absence.

by Slobbity on Mar 8, 2007 10:32 AM EST reply actions  

Awesome.
"Jaret Wright will be the missing piece in the Orioles quest to return to respectability." --- Jaret Wright's Mom

by BrianS on Mar 8, 2007 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

On the fence
While I do like the teams roster a lot better than last years I still am not a true believer. I can see good play and the team competing in the division for awhile, but when it comes time to make a trade to help with the wild card push our FO wont be able to make it because of their usual ways.
I don't know. I hate to join BirdFanInPhilly in this. I really want to believe. But at the end of the day the team is still owned and operated by Angelos.    
Are you tired of watching porn all day? Neither am I! - T-Bones

by O face on Mar 8, 2007 1:26 PM EST reply actions  

re:
Yeah, yeah.... We all know that stuff is likely to happen and that 81 wins will be a success.

But this thread is about suspending reality, if only for one day. We can pretend that this season will defy the 1-in-8,235,873 playoff odds Baseball Prospectus will assign the O's in the 4th week of the season.

by drj on Mar 8, 2007 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

RE:
Correction, 82 wins.

After 9 years, I want a winning team.

momma take a look now at what your boy has done; he's walking around like he's number one; he went downtown and bought him a gun.

by BirdFanInPhilly on Mar 8, 2007 1:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Right on!
I would actually be pumped about 82 wins.  A non-losing season would be awesome and I think this team can do it.
"Jaret Wright will be the missing piece in the Orioles quest to return to respectability." --- Jaret Wright's Mom

by BrianS on Mar 8, 2007 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

well then
in the spirit of suspending reality, gimme that punch bowl of kool aid! Better yet. Gimme a needle and syringe. I'm shooting the kool aid straight into my system! I'm ready for some baseball in October.
Are you tired of watching porn all day? Neither am I! - T-Bones

by O face on Mar 8, 2007 8:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't mistake the Kool Aid for the B-12
"Jaret Wright will be the missing piece in the Orioles quest to return to respectability." --- Jaret Wright's Mom

by BrianS on Mar 8, 2007 9:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Just give me an IV drip of the stuff....
That'll keep me going the whole season.
Took off runnin' but I take my time...

by elktonfan on Mar 9, 2007 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I Feel Good!!
I felt good about the 2005 team and I really feel good with high expectations for 2007 team and beyond.
I remember in 2005 when Bedard went down and I can still see the replays of Javy Lopez, who was hot at the time, taking a foul tip off his right hand. I remember thinking; My god man, put that right hand behind you before the pitch is delivered! ok, maybe a week off, no harm done. Shit, by the time Lopez came back he was in the crapper, the ex-yankee, who was trying to act like a  manager, but refusing to come out of the dugout, had let the team fall apart and all was lost.
I'm hoping Perlozzo's new found backbone can keep the team wired together when the shit hits the fan, as we all know it will.
I thought it happier to be dead / to die for a World Series victory, than live for mediocerity.

by chalkdust on Mar 8, 2007 2:02 PM EST reply actions  

Awesome Little Big League reference
I loved that movie.
www.beltwaysportsbeat.com

by CStoneNo37 on Mar 8, 2007 2:52 PM EST reply actions  

Cabrera
D-Cab is looking AWESOME this spring.  Of course, he looked pretty damn good in the WBC last year but still, his performance is really encouraging.

http://blogs.baltimoresun.com/sports_custom_roch/2007/03/dcab.html

Big Bird says, "Get Pat the Bat!"

by birdman on Mar 8, 2007 4:47 PM EST reply actions  

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