In 2009, the Baltimore Orioles hit 160 home runs. I decided to look more into the situation today after picking up Weaver on Strategy, which is a classic bathroom-reader/cigarette-accompanier in this house.

Weaver wrote: [1973]... Earl Williams lead us with 22 homers, followed by Grich, with only 12. The team only had 119 homers. I prefer my clubs to hit at least 150 homers. I don't want to take anything away from that club, but it won the fewest games of any division-winning club I managed. Every game was a struggle because of our lack of power, the unability to break it wide open with one swing of the bat. I've managed and won with guys who hit singles and stole bases, but I'd much rather have a power club. Those home runs make life a lot easier.

Since then, of course, home run totals have increased, and the team's 160 homers in 2009 were only good for 11th in the American League. The Yankees led with 244 home runs. In 1973, Cleveland led the American league, which had twelve teams at the time, with 158. So when Weaver is talking about desiring 150 home runs, he really means he wants a top-3 or top-5 team in the category. I'm not exactly trying to advocate that the Orioles need Weaver to manage again (he won't) , or that the Orioles need to take Weaver's book and make a bible out of it (hey, that might not be a bad idea, huh?). But it stands to point. The top five teams in home runs in order were NYY, TEX, BOS, TOR, TB. They averaged  about 89 wins. In terms of the AL Least, 89 wins would have been good for third place. This is the situation the Orioles are in. Hitting more home runs would be very good for the Orioles in 2010! Isn't it a little depressing that every team in the division was a home run leader other than Baltimore?

All things being equal from 2009 to 2010, the Orioles need to hit 183 home runs have the average in the AL. That is a 14% increase. To catch up to the Tampa Bay Rays, the Orioles would have to increase by 39 home runs, or 24%. That is quite a formidable task if the team returns with mostly the same lineup. Where can we find these home runs? We might reasonably hope that Adam Jones plays in more than 120 games, which in itself should be good for 25 home runs (+6 over 2009) and that doesn't count any growth as a young player. If Matt Wieters hit home runs at the same rate that he did for all 96 games that he played it, and he plays 130 games, he'd only have 12 (+3, WOO we're getting somewhere. Except not really). Other than pointing out that Wieters could help in the DH spot on off-days, it also really points out how much of a breakout we are truly expecting from him. It's almost unreasonable.

We might also predict that Markakis will return to his 20-25 home run form, and hope and pray he develops into a 25-30 guy. On the other hand, Brian Roberts is most likely to not hit 16 home runs again. His peak is 18, and his average is 11.

This is why I'm starting to like the idea of Dan Uggla coming in to provide us with 30 home runs a year. I would barely care if he was a DH of if he learns 3B, which is really the only place that I believe he'll fit on the field. In 2010, the Orioles may find themselves missing Aubrey Huff. Aubrey Huff has averaged 25 home runs over the last five years. His 15 home runs in 2009 was just as flukey as his 32 in 2008. He's a hot/cold player, but he's not Luke Scott.

I also want to point out that home runs are not a necessity either, because there were four teams who posted below-average totals and still had winning records. This includes playoff teams LAA and MIN, with 173 and 172, respectively. This is because of superior OBP and SLG percentages.

Although the Orioles finished with above-average marks in doubles, the team was 11th in walks, severely hurting both their OBP (by getting on base less) and SLG (by raising the number of at bats) percentages. So I guess the Orioles could equally desire to pick up some walks, but either way, increasing the home run total is very important because honestly, only KC and OAK were worse than Baltimore. And also, I'm actually trying to focus this fanpost on home runs, obviously.

2010 will be an interesting year. I believe that the LF/DH/1B solution is in-house. But I can't figure it out. Which platoons to use? If Aubrey Huff is resigned, it would be a good thing, but it would mean that Luke Scott needs to be traded, esspecially if Wieters' bat demands to be in the lineup everyday. I liked Aubrey Huff at first in 2009.

Discuss.

The AFL team supporting the Baltimore Orioles prospects are playing in the championship game today. Orioles prospects such as Josh Bell, Matt Angle, Ryohei Tanaka, and Brandon Waring are palying. We can discuss the game here and you can watch the game here:

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?topic_id=7617858

Orioles prospects Brandon Erbe, Brandon Snyder, and Brandon Waring are also on the Deser Dogs, but Snyder went home, and Erbe is hurt.

I thought it would be cool to see what players/coaches everyone here has met. We could see what player people have seen the most, and it would be interesting. I know at the games Bergesen is very friendly and you can actually have a good conversation with him. 

I have met Brad Bergesen, Adam Jones, Danys Baez, Mark Hendrickson, Brian Roberts, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Ray, Dave Trembley, Rick Kranitz, and Robby Felix.

Which players have you met?

Your work day just got a whole lot less productive.

Play RBI Baseball 2 online. (Tip of the cap to The Lost Ogle. See also the clip from "Dream Team" with references to Ken Gerhart and Rene Gonzalez among others.)

Choose your starting pitcher from among Ballard, Milacki, Schmidt, or Harnisch. Keep Joe Orsulak, Randy Milligan, and Craig Worthington in your lineup or bring Steve Finley and Brady Anderson off the bench.

You've got work to do if you're going to take down the Blue Jays.

I found this site called Stadium Journey which consists of people that go around the country reviewing major sports venues and their take on them. They have several categories too score the stadiums, which they call "FanFare." They rate Oriole Park as their best MLB stadium out of 29 teams. The team they leave out is the Twins because they couldn't review the Metrodome in time before it was demolished. I've only had the pleasure of catching a few game's at Oriole Park since I'm pretty far from Baltimore but I've had some good times there when I was able to see a game.

What they had too say about the park and its surroundings was pretty interesting and any opinion's from people who are regulars at Oriole Park would be nice to read. I know of it and never tried it but the site say's that the Boog's BBQ is something you gotta try even if your not into any of the other food at the park. Even though it's closer for me, I've never seen a game at Nationals Park as I lack interest for them but when the Orioles come to town I'll be making sure I make a trip there. The Nats were ranked 28th and scored 17 for "FanFare" while the Orioles had the highest score with 33. Anyways if anyone could give me some comparison's of the two park's and anything else they think about the review go right ahead. Thanks.

http://stadiumjourney.com/?cat=16

So, we know by now that Adam Jones is not a Super Two this year, and as a result, the Orioles are going to save millions of dollars on him. Daniel Moroz over at Camden Crazies analyzes the Doctor's 2009 production and makes some rough estimates of his future salaries. He concludes by suggesting that the Orioles offer Adam a long-term deal during this offseason, rather than waiting until he's arbitration-eligible next year. He points out that this could be very fair to both sides, as Adam could get a bit more money in 2010 while the club saves a bit in the long term. He suggests something like 5 years, $40 million, which takes care of his first year of free agency.

Will this be Dr. Jones this winter? Image via cache.daylife.com

I think it's a good idea. The whole organization seems committed to Jones as the center fielder of the club for the next several years, and I see no reason to doubt that he will continue to improve. Not only does it seem to be win-win for both sides, but I think it's good to show the same commitment to Adam that they've shown Brian and Nick. If there's any sort of line for that kind of thing, he's definitely next; Guthrie and Scott may not fit into the plan, and there's no reason to commit that much to a bullpen arm. I also think that doing a deal now rather than next year might save the club that much more money, because the national recognition Adam has started to get (All-Star, Gold Glove) and the possibility that he improves even more in 2010 could feasibly get him even more than Daniel suggests. As far as I can tell, the only big arguments against a long-term deal would be that he seems a bit injury-prone so far and that his defense wasn't as good this year as last. However, the injuries he's had so far have been largely short-term or bad luck, and I don't think he was as bad defensively as UZR suggests.

So, what do you think? Lock up the good Doctor now, or wait and see how things play out over the next year?

The guys over at [Project Prospect http://www.projectprospect.com/] are somewhat controversial among prospect bloggers, but are at least usually pretty interesting.  In their firsthand AFL report, they mention some of the prospects who stood out to them, and guess who topped their list?

Most Impressive

Josh Bell has gained a lot of followers this year because of his bat. And while he has gotten some good marks for his defense, I wanted to see it for myself. The verdict: it's exceptional. Bell demonstrated an impressive arm as well as good footwork and agilily. I've seen him make plays to his right, effectively charge balls, and flash soft hands. I'm a big believer in Bell's bat, glove and understanding of the game -- interview coming soon.

At the time of the trade, the two major concerns about Bell were his glove and his batting against lefties. Now, it seems we may be looking at a plus defensive third baseman, and while AFL stats don't mean much, he's also clobbering left-handed pitching there.

While taking a brief break from dying of overwork, I saw that the 2010 CHONE projections for hitters was up.  For those who don't know Chone is a projection system like ZIPS or Bill James' which Stacey used for her 3-part articles projecting, except  probably more accurate (at least compared to bill James).  Granted these projection systems are all projects or estimates that will vary due to injuries and other factors.the

So without further ado I present the CHONE projections: http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/BAL2010.htm

Interesting tidbits are:

The highest OBP will be from Nick

No Oriole will slug 500 although four are projected for slugging percentages in the .470s

Our leader in homeruns will be Luke Scott with 21

Nobody will break 100 RBIs or Runs.

These projections seem fairly pessimistic to me and I have the feeling that the true outcome will be somewhere inbetween CHONE and Bill James. Anyway discuss the projections as you will, maybe you can find more interesting tidbits. Or maybe just tell us all who all the nonames are near the bottom of the list. I recognize a handful of players including possible backup catcher Robby Hammock.

For over three years people on this blog have complained that the Orioles have lacked a true ace for years.  At some point two seasons ago, many believed that Jeremy Guthrie might be the closest this team has had since the migration of Moose and were rebuffed by a subpar performance this passed season.  The reality is this team has two, maybe three, aces in the making in Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz (also, Jake Arrieta), but whose to say they will ever be as good as #2 on a good team.

This leads us to the question that has waved around the FanPost comments since the offseason: Should the Orioles trade for or sign an ace this or next season to solidify their rotation?  If so, whom and who would it cost?

The Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds, and Houston Astros need financial relief; the Toronto Blue Jays have an ace in the final year of his current contract; the Seattle Mariners might not be able to sign their ace to a contract extension; and the Atlanta Braves need a big bat.  Every indication points to a few of these teams trading their aces.

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Rumors abound that our beloved Orioles are one of two teams, the Giants being the other, expressly interested in trading for slugging second baseman Dan Uggla.  In the immortal words of Kent Brockman, "I for one think it's about f-ing time."

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