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Projecting the Orioles in 2012 (Part II)

Will Nick Markakis and Nolan Reimold lead an offensive charge in 2012? (AP Photo/Andy King)

Last year, I said that it would be fair to expect the Oriole offense to be significantly better than they were in 2010, by something like 100 runs or so. And that basically happened, as the '11 Orioles scored 95 runs more than their previous iteration. In fact, no other team in the sport improved their offense as much as the Orioles from 2010 to 2011. So much for all of the frustration caused by soul-killing strikeouts and Vladimir Guerrero's poor cleanup hitting, huh?

I've already taken a look at the 2012 bench and made an estimation of it collectively scoring 80 to 100 runs, for a relatively large improvement over the poor bench performance in 2011. Today our focus moves to the starting lineup. This is the performance breakdown of last year's starters:

Position Player(s) PA wOBA Runs Created (wRC)
DH Vladimir Guerrero 590 .318 67
C Matt Wieters 551 .339 72
1B Derrek Lee/Chris Davis 493 .309 53
2B Brian Roberts/Robert Andino 689 .297 67
3B Mark Reynolds 620 .348 85
SS J.J. Hardy 567 .343 76
LF Luke Scott/Nolan Reimold 541 .326 65
CF Adam Jones 618 .339 81
RF Nick Markakis 716 .334 91

*As I normally do, I refer to weighted on base average (wOBA), the all-encompassing offensive statistic of choice. Runs Created is derived from it and plate appearances. All data can be found on fangraphs.com.

While Reynolds actually spent time at first and Davis at third, but from an offensive point of view, their position is meaningless. Davis replaced Lee in the lineup. All other players, besides pitchers (who, led by Zach Britton, created 5 runs of their own), figured into the bench part of this project. As a group, the starters totaled 657 runs in 5385 plate appearances.

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Friday Bird Droppings

Exciting times: international scouting kerfuffles! Disgraced sluggers! Nick Johnson. Fear not, friends: picthers and catchers report soon!

Baltimore Orioles beat Pleasanton's Brad Bergesen in salary arbitration - Inside Bay Area It's all in the game, Bergy.

Orioles will have two more scouts on pro assignments - chicagotribune.com Backtracking or all part of the plan?

Camden Depot: Cup of jO's: Joe Mahoney is Tall Yes he is, crawdaddy. Yes he is.

Ex-pitcher Oil Can Boyd admits to pitching while using cocaine - MLB - SI.com I am shocked. Shocked!

Podcast: Dirk Hayhurst talks about Italy, the reality of the big leagues and his new book | Big League Stew - Yahoo! Sports Return of the Garfoose!

Happy birthday to Cesar "Maximum" Izturis.

402 comments  | 

Thursday Bird Droppings

Local baseball governing body bans Baltimore's scouts after controversial signing | YONHAP NEWS
From now on the Orioles will have to find their Asian talents in places other than South Korea. Wow, they're salty. (h/t to Westie)

Orioles Trade Jeremy Guthrie to the Rockies | Dempsey's Army
DA weighs in with a well-reasoned analysis.

Camden Depot: Cup of jO's: 2012 Composite Orioles Prospect Rankings
An average of the rankings from multiple sources.

School of Roch: Orioles interested in Nick Johnson (updated)
The almost always injured Johnson would be a good guy to have stashed in the minors.

916 comments  | 

Orioles Hail 20th Anniversary of Camden Yards

Oriole Park has gotten some facelifts in the past few years in order to keep up its blend of modern amenities and a retro feel. Now, if only it could get a winning home team. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

If you are an Orioles fan, you probably get a little extra pride in your voice when talking about Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which will be celebrating the 20th anniversary of its inaugural season this year. No surprise for an O's fan to get excited about Camden, considering the team hasn't been good for more than a decade.

Turns out the O's like Camden Yards a lot too. This season, the team will be sporting a 20th anniversary of OPACY patch on the uniform, and there will be assorted special events at the ballpark throughout the year. Among these will be the unveiling of the previously-announced statues of the Orioles inductees into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Not stopping there, though: today, the team has made public a site celebrating the anniversary.

There are a variety of historical artifacts on the site, but the coolest, by far, is the Eutaw Street Home Run tracker, which has a little interactive map showing the landing spots of all of the Eutaw HRs in Camden Yards' history. This is complete with video of every home run that's landed on Eutaw, all the way back to 1992. I just listened to Jon Miller calling some guy from Texas hitting a home run off Jose Mesa in 1992. Another one has Mickey Tettleton as a Tiger hitting a home run off Ben McDonald. It's a treasure trove. Most of these names I remember, though some I don't. Who was Kevin Bass? I don't know, but he hit a Eutaw HR for the Orioles in '95.

Comedy gold can be found on the site, too, with its tagline: The Ballpark That Forever Changed Baseball™. They really have the ™ on there. This was in the press release and everything. Look, I love OPACY, and I hope this is never in doubt, but let's leave the arrogance of the Pretentious Capitalization and the Random Trademarking to the Yankees, okay? We all make fun of the whole Most Storied Franchise thing, and nobody wants to see the same sort of attitude taking root in these parts.

Not-so-fun fact: in the 20 seasons that the Orioles have played since Camden Yards opened, exactly four of those seasons have been .500 or better; only one, the wire-to-wire run in 1997, saw the O's win more than 90 games. The Orioles had a home record of .500 or better every year from 1992 to 2000 and they have not had one since, although they came kind of close a few times, including last year's 39-42 mark in the confines of Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Are they going to break that futility this year? Well... no. Probably not. Still, what a great place to watch a baseball game.

9 comments  | 

Wednesday Bird Droppings


Sad news about Danny Clyburn yesterday. Clyburn played in the system in the ealry 90s and was shot in front of his home in South Carolina. The Cespedes saga appears to be nearing an end as the Cuban sensation is set to meet with the free-spending Marlins, though the Birds are apparently sending another scouting team South to check up on Cuban talent.

Former Orioles Player, Danny Clyburn Jr. Shot And Killed | SI Tracking Blog – R.I.P.

Latest On Yoenis Cespedes: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com Marlins seem to be making a major push to get Cespedes.

Orioles planning another visit to scout Cespedes - baltimoresun.com Maybe Fred Ferreira can ink Soler?

KBO protest over Orioles poaching schoolboy pitcher - chicagotribune.com Not entirely sure what the ramifications are here (if there's a contract, can it be voided? future dealings in Korea?)

Amber Theoharis: Once again, O's opening day starter unknown Check the list of recent vintage Opening Day starters...ugh.

Orioles' organization preview, Top 20 Prospects | orioles.com: Another list, courtesy of mlb.com

On this day in 1999, for the first time in 25 years of hearings, an arbitration case was heard by a female.

Happy birthday, Felix PIe...you've still got a friend in Birdland!

690 comments  | 

What Worries Me

You're already missed. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

My immediate reaction when I heard about the Jeremy Guthrie trade yesterday was a blend of shock, anger, and confusion. The deal deprived the Orioles of one of my favorites and the return left me wanting in a bad way. But it is important to let these things percolate and look at them with a more rational mind, and I found that as the shock wore off, I had less and less to complain about with the trade.

Yes, Jason Hammel is not as good a pitcher as Jeremy Guthrie and Matt Lindstrom's walk rates have been known to have a certain Kevin Gregg-ness to them. But Guthrie is 33 years old with a 4.19 career ERA and is a free agent after this season. I can easily believe the reports out of the front office that this winter the demand just wasn't there. Roy Oswalt is still out of work, and it took a longer time than expected for Edwin Jackson to settle for just one year. The pitching market isn't tremendous, and in that light this trade seems relatively fair.

So what's missing from this package that would have made it more palatable?

The answer is youth. This trade doesn't make the O's significantly better in 2012 and does nothing for them long-term. I can hammer on this point for weeks: the Orioles won 69 games in 2011 and they need to be thinking long-term. But, then, it appears to be the case that nobody wanted to give up youth for Guthrie. Yesterday de facto General Manager Dan Duquette explicitly said "We didn't have any offers of young prospects." Teams are valuing their young talent higher than ever before. That's unfortunate, but it is what it is. You have to hope now that Hammel or Lindstrom have big years and build up enough trade value to get the needed young talent into the Oriole organization.

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73 comments  | 

Tuesday Bird Droppings

How is everyone doing the morning after the Guthrie trade? Now that I've had a day to think about it, I'm not so steamed. Actually I am steamed, but not at the trade. If that really was the best offer for Guthrie, Dan Duquette did what he could do. The real fault lies with Andy MacPhail for not trading him when he had more value. Now, none of us knows what "more value" was, but it had to be more than what came in return for Guthrie yesterday. Wasn't it MacPhail himself who said he'd rather make a move too early than wait until it's too late?

Popular veteran Guthrie recalls his five season with O's after trade - baltimoresun.com
Quotes from Guthrie that we've pretty much all heard, but a few things from the new O's, Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom, as well.

Jeremy Guthrie Trade Reactions - MLBTradeRumors.com
MLBTR did a nice job rounding up some reactions on yesterday's trade.

Who Are You, Dan Duquette, and What Is Your Vision For Our Orioles? | The Loss Column
Unable to make sense of Duquette's moves so far, Neal wants to know what Duquette sees in the O's future.

Orioles Card "O" the Day: Jeremy Guthrie, 2011 Topps Diamond #321
Brotz says farewell to Guts.

Jason Hammel is Jeremy Guthrie | Camden Depot
"Young, cost-controlled talent would be preferable even if that talent had a low probability of being a difference maker."

Orioles Trade Jeremy Guthrie For Hammel, Lindstrom | Camden Crazies
Daniel's take on the trade along with some analysis on Hammel.

1283 comments  | 

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It's getting to be fantasy baseball season, so Yahoo has purchased this space to remind you that Yahoo has the best fantasy sports out there. I've played on CBS Sports, Yahoo, and MLB.com, and Yahoo is head and shoulders above those other two in quality and in ease of use. They didn't pay me to say that, I actually believe it! They did pay me to say what's written below, so take a peek, won't you? Or just scroll down really fast and pretend like you're fast fowarding on your DVR.

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  • Fantasy baseball is the original social network, it is the way friends stayed connected over America’s pastime no matter where they were, Yahoo! Sports continues the tradition by letting fans talk smack talk, check'in, and chat on newly launched message boards.
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