You may recall the original list (CC.com's Fairly Well-Informed Top 20 O's Prospects) from April, and hey, let's kill some time this morning and look at how the 20 fellas are doing in 2008.

(Teams that the player has also played for this season are in parentheses. Current team is listed first, obviously.)

1. Matt Wieters, C, Bowie (Frederick)

With the way Wieters is raking in his first pro season, it might not be long until we see him sporting that cap for good.

In 69 games with Frederick, Wieters torched the Carolina League to the tune of .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers. In 13 games since his call-up to Double-A Bowie, the Georgia Tech grad is hitting .356/.442/.600 with two more longballs. He's not just the best Orioles prospects, I'd have to rate him top five in all of baseball right now. There has been no learning curve at all. He stormed out of the gates at Frederick and had only a couple of minor slumps along the way, proving in 229 at-bats that he was way too good for the league.

With the way Ramon Hernandez is hitting, fielding and aging, Wieters might see Baltimore by the end of the year. Why not? He's 22 years old, a polished college prospect, and he's treating the minor leagues like a Hall of Famer on a rehab assignment. He's coming.

2. Bill Rowell, 3B, Frederick

Even though he was only 18 years old when he hit the Sally League in 2007, his .426 slugging percentage was still a very mild discouragement. Still, it was easy to keep the faith in Rowell, whose 6'5" frame promises to deliver power at some point.

The question now might be if he'll ever deliver anything more than an eventual home run stroke. Let's not sugar coat it. We're talking about the ninth overall pick of the 2006 draft, and at 19, he's being dominated at High-A ball. Yes, he's only 19, and no, that's no reason to give up on him or even get close to giving up.

But is his putrid .230/.289/.360 line something that raises a red flag? Absolutely, it is. He missed a lot of April with a leg injury, then hit .253/.310/.396 in May. Hey, maybe just a late start, right? Give him time.

June was atrocious: .185/.241/.296. The good news is that through eight games in July, he's starting to heat up, at a .296/.367/.519 clip over eight games. Keep it "rowell"-in', Bill. Ahhhhhahahahaha!

Seriously, though.

3. Radhames Liz, RHP, Baltimore (Norfolk)

Liz has been made a necessity in Baltimore thanks to the injuries to Adam Loewen and the farewell 10-game disaster that was undoubtedly Steve Trachsel's last time in a baseball uniform that doesn't have him coaching little league or something.

He's not THAT young -- he turned 25 in June. His 11 starts in Norfolk went OK (4.05 ERA in 60 innings with a good K-rate), but he's clearly not there yet as a guy who's going to contribute positive results to a major league rotation. The stuff is good, but he leaves pitches up and has real control problems (shocker for an O's prospect).

Totally Rad (seriously, watch that video) still has real promise, because a good arm's a good arm, and at least he doesn't get hurt all the time. He's got gnarly potential. But what's with all the jogging? Can't he just learn magic and skip the aerobics?

Is Rick Kranitz, in fact, Zeb? Either way, I think Kranitz is totally decent.

4. Nolan Reimold, OF, Bowie

Facts are facts, and fact is, Nolan Reimold looks like a stoner. The kind that says "ganja green" and buys Hendrix shirts at Target.

His overall numbers are solid, at .286/.359/.500, and they are also hampered by a dismal April where he hit just .232/.324/.347. Reimold's ceiling might not be all that high -- I'm starting to think he'll end up sort of like Luke Scott, but a right-handed bat with more injury problems. He had a torrid May (.312/.414/.606, 6 HR), and he's on a rampage so far in July (.382/.389/.824, 4 HR).

In a perfect world, we finally see Nolan in Baltimore this year, too, and we see him for good starting next spring. There's no reason to not. Let's hope he can stay healthy this season, which has been his biggest problem to date. With the way Rowell's swinging right now, I think Reimold should be bumped up to No. 2 positional prospect.

5. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Frederick

The 22-year old TCU product that dropped in the draft and was a mild money gamble by the O's is paying off. See, between Wieters and Arrieta, is dealing with Scott Boras really all that bad? He's got good clients!

Arrieta is a Carolina League All-Star with a 2.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, with 108 strikeouts in 101.1 innings pitched. Not bad at all, eh?

He did have a rough June, missing a couple starts and posting a 5.03 ERA in 19.2 innings, but he dominated in April and May and his last two starts have been back to the general overpowering of High-A hitters. A bump up may soon be in the making here, too.

If anyone ever gives this guy the "Jake the Snake" nickname, I'm going to barf. Enough with that already. The world has seen enough Jakes the Snakes.

6. Chris Tillman, RHP, Bowie

Chris Tillman was serious when that photo is taken, and he's serious about striking fools out. With 87 whiffs in 83.2 innings at Bowie so far this season, he's sporting a 7-2 record and 3.12 ERA.

While his line might not look overly impressive -- good K-rate, but not eye-popping, good ERA but not dominant, decent but unexciting WHIP (1.31) -- you have to remember that Tillman turned 20 in April. This dude can't even go buy beer yet, and he's more than holding his own in Double-A, which in a lot of instances these days is the last step before the majors.

There's also almost no way he's fully grown into his body yet. At 6'5", he's listed at 195 pounds. He'll pack on at least 20 more before he's matured.

If we'd gotten nothing back besides Adam Jones and Tillman in the Bedard trade, it would stand right now as a first-class fleecing. While E.B. Farnum struggles mightily just to keep his head above water with the terrible Mariners, we've got a young center fielder with tremendous upside and a 20-year old that's working it in Double-A ball. Plus, we got MORE out of them. God. I genuinely feel bad for their fans.

7. Garrett Olson, LHP, Baltimore (Norfolk)

When Olson came up in 2007, he was No. 57, an obvious fill-in who would be back down as soon as his services were no longer necessary. His call-up this year came as No. 18, a guy who was taking a spot in the rotation. There's a lot to be said for numbers, even past spring training.

Olson's not been awesome or anything, at 5.65/1.57. Like Liz, he's suspceptible to getting lit right up on any night, which makes the nights where he looks smooth and effective easy to forget. He's 24, so he's still learning on the job, really.

But you can say this for Olson over Loewen: at least you know he'll be there every fifth day. While Loewen's debacle of a 2008 season is most likely over after two trips to the disabled list, Olson continues to ply his trade on the big stage, and it looks like he's here to stay for now. He was never supposed to be an ace or anything, most likely panning out to a No. 4 starter, or a No. 3 in good years.

The '08 Orioles, however, have gotten something very valuable from him. Innings. Innings that Mr. Major League Contract can't deliver. Loewen Replacement will be a position unto itself as long as Adam is an Oriole.

8. Chorye Spoone, RHP, Bowie

Spoone has made just nine starts, missing all of May and a portion of both April and June. And the starts he has made haven't been his best.

In those nine injury-affected outings, he's gone 3-3 with a 4.57 ERA and ugly 1.61 WHIP. But the really worrisome thing about his numbers is they aren't exactly out of the norm. Remember, Spoone's 2007 was considered a major step up. Everything improved dramatically. Right now, he's just pitching almost exactly like he did in 2005-06.

Let's just look at 2006-08, and you'll see what I mean:

The one rate that has spiked his his homers per nine. In 2006, he was at .35, last year at .47. This year, .87. That's a major difference. But I am back to questioning whether a guy named Chorye Spoone can be a good big league ballplayer. Tim Spooneybarger didn't make it -- in fact, he's with Aberdeen, which I will admit to being totally psyched on.

9. Tony Butler, LHP, Delmarva

Butler currently sits on the Shorebirds DL with tendinitis in his left arm. Not a great sign, but he's only 20. It would also help to explain what was a pretty lackluster performance for a genuine prospect (not a great one, but a real one) at Low-A.

In 55 innings prior to the injury, Butler had put up a 4.42 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, with 7.2 K/9. What is VERY encouraging is his outstanding BB rate, as he put just 11 on base via the free pass. Not too shabby at all there.

Butler was one of the other two pickups in the Bedard deal, and even though he's out of action right now, hey...we win again.

I would like to find out if he has an abnormally high singing voice so I know whether or not I can start calling him Tony Soprano.

You got a bee onna you hat.

10. Hayden Penn, RHP, Norfolk

These slight disappointments are sent to prepare
For what may hereafter befall;
For seasons of real disappointment and care,
Which commonly happen to all.
-- Jane Taylor, 'The Disappointment'

If it wasn't quite time to forget about Hayden Penn as any real part of the Orioles future in 2007, it certainly looks like it is now. The guy just isn't getting hitters out in Triple-A ball.

It also appears now that a great opportunity was missed to trade Penn in 2005 or even 2006, because he'd be a throw-in piece for anything worthwhile anymore.

This isn't really an injury case, though he missed much of 2007; or a bad luck case, or anything else. This is just a case of a guy who's not very good. I wanted to hold out hope for Hayden, but it's probably time to give up the ghost. He's a minor league gap-filler.

11. Tim Bascom, RHP, Frederick

I'm going to just go ahead and admit that my 10 and 11 guys are screwing the pooch a little bit so far in 2008. I was probably overrating Feel Good Story Bascom a little to begin with, and he's doing me no favors now.

THAT SAID...

He missed all of April and made just two starts in May, so he got a late jump and is probably still working to getting up to 100% on the field. Still, though, the numbers are the numbers. At 23, he's got a 4.89 ERA at Frederick. Not good. His K-to-BB is about 1.5-to-1. Not good. He's getting tagged by hitters. Not good.

12. Troy Patton, LHP, A Rehab Center

We got Patton hurt, he was hurt when I made the list, and he's hurt now.

13. Brandon Snyder, 1B, Frederick

His May and June numbers look outstanding, but that's only because you might have looked at his awful April beforehand. He's raking in July, but it's July 10th, so we'll wait and see. An .800ish OPS at Frederick for a first baseman just isn't going to cut it as far as climbing the ladder goes. You can get that in a good year from Chris Vinyard.

Also, to those that have tried to sell Vinyard to me, can we declare that whole bit over? He's OPSing .698. He's got a brick for a glove, and designated hitters that slug .355 are a detriment at any level.

Snyder remains one of my favorite players in the system, but it'd take a fool to not admit he's rather failing thus far. A whole lot of things have gone wrong in his pro career. He turns 22 in November, so it's time to get a move on.

Tell him, Red. Come on, Brandon. Make it. See your friend, and shake his hand.

14. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Frederick

2006 with Delmarva went swimmingly for Erbe at age 18. At 19, 2007 in Frederick was a disaster, as he put up a 6.26 ERA and all kinds of things were deemed in need of a tune-up.

2008 has been a mixed bag. He dominated in April (2.73 ERA) and June (2.32 ERA), but was treated like steel at the mighty hands of John Henry in May (7.07 ERA). He's started using his slider as an out pitch, and worked away from his high school curveball. The guy has a serious arm, with big heat, and is another tall pitcher with a still-lanky build.

He's 20, and has shown vast improvement this year. While the overall numbers might not be stunning, they miss the point. He's made a massive turnaround from a year that might have ruined a lot of hyped young pitchers, and even came back in June from a terrible month of May. He's moving back up.

15. David Hernandez, RHP, Bowie

Just might be time to give the sleeper prospect of the organization a serious look.

Simple reasoning, really. Hernandez's power arm might not get him by as a starter in the majors, but I suspect he might soon be able to do a fair Jim Johnson impersonation were the need to arise to have an extra arm in the bullpen. He's fanning 10.13 per nine innings this season, which is consistent with previous numbers. His ERA is way down, he's got his WHIP down at 1.25, and his fastball/slider combo is the real deal, though he doesn't have a whole lot else.

The downside is what I already said, he might not make it as a starter given his lack of secondary pitches. But the upside might be a shutdown power reliever, too. No rush, though, since he IS a sleeper.

Quickies on 16-20, because they'd all either fall off this list or not qualify anymore:

16. Pedro Beato, RHP, Frederick: He's trying to get by striking out about four per nine. It's not going to work. Beato's peripherals indicate bad things to come if he ever gets out of A-ball.

17. Scott Moore/Mike Costanzo, 3B, Norfolk: It's taken until July, but Moore is finally hitting at Norfolk. There's also still zero excuse for his demotion in favor of the bumbling nimrods we've been putting at shortstop or a 100th pitcher. Costanzo's had a bit of a rough year, himself.

18. Matt Albers, RHP, DL: Uh ohhhh...

19. Randor Bierd, RHP, Rehab: RAN-DOOOOOR! was impressing before the injury. Here's looking forward to his return.

20. Bob McCrory, RHP, Norfolk: Will probably spend his life on the AAA-to-MLB train. Got smacked around and walked everyone in two-thirds of an inning of MLB work this year over two games. What about Bob?

Nobody's hitting much, and nobody's hitting for any power. Costanzo's K-rate is absolutely terrible. Torres came up because he hit a bunch of singles -- and also because Hernandez and Fahey are just as bad, and also because there are still maybe some problems in valuing talents within the system. There's really no reason for a veteran like Cintron to be farting around in AAA when he would be the best option for the O's at short. Moore has been horrendous since his demotion, and now he's not even getting the reps at short, with Cintron playing. So why is he down there while Fahey and Hernandez and Torres are all wasting time in Baltimore? Luis Terrero continues to be a fine minor league player, leading the Tides in OPS.

Olson has been a shining star, and the peripherals for Liz and Penn are encouraging, particularly Liz's. Leicester taking starts is a little weird, since he doesn't even average four innings per. McCrory and Cormier have anchored the bullpen, but McCrory still has his problems. If Cormier or even Alberto Castillo keep pitching well, they could wind up contributing this season when the inevitable injuries hit the 'pen. Or if not contributing, at least lending more hope than dead veterans Yan and Bukvich do.

Norfolk 10, Louisville 3

Big shots carried the Tides to a blowout win, as Luis Terrero hit a grand slam and Oscar Salazar launched a three-run shot to account for 70% of the Norfolk runs. The kicker? Terrero's salami came in the top of the ninth inning, a frame in which Norfolk dropped the seven runs that were the difference in the outcome.

Everyone in the starting lineup besides Scott Moore had a hit, and everyone got on base either via base hit or the free pass. Terrero, Eider Torres, Chris Heintz, Chris Roberson and Adam Stern had two hits each.

Hayden Penn turned in another good performance, going seven innings and striking out nine Bats batsmen, allowing three runs (two earned) on four hits and two walks. Lance Cormier got the win in relief.

Bowie 5, Akron 4 (10 innings)

More late-game heroics in the O's system came from Bowie, as Luis Montanez hit a walk-off solo shot in the bottom of the tenth inning to give the Basox the win over the Aeros.

Struggling Nolan Reimold went 1-for-4 with a strikeout after being dropped to sixth in the order. Montanez was 2-for-5, and third baseman Jeff Nettles homered in his third straight game, a solo shot in the second inning. It was his fifth long ball on the young season. Jonathan Tucker was 2-for-2 with two walks.

On the hill, Chris Tillman struggled with his command, going four and a third innings and walking five while fanning four. He gave up two runs on two hits. Julio Manon blew a save when Akron tied it at four in the top of the ninth, but picked up the win.

Winston-Salem 9, Frederick 4

Wieters Watch! 1-for-5 with an RBI.

Rowell Watch! He still hasn't returned from injury after "tweaking" his ankle a couple weeks ago.

The Keys scattered ten hits, all singles, and made three errors in the loss. Everyone in the starting lineup did get a hit, so I hope they all got a Coke and a piece of pizza for trying hard. Chris Vinyard, with two hits, maybe gets a breadstick, too.

Lakewood 5, Delmarva 4

After tying it at four in the top of the eighth inning, Jeff Moore gave up a solo homer to Michael Durant to lead off the Lakewood half of the frame, and that wound up being all she wrote.

Tony Butler's line: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. The Shorebirds committed four errors.

At the plate, Matt Angle, Joseph Nowicki and Tyler Henson had two hits each, including Nowick and Henson homers.

Indianapolis 2, Norfolk 1

The Tides dropped this one in the bottom of the ninth on a meltdown from closer Bob McCrory, following an outstanding start from Hayden Penn. Penn went seven innings, allowing just three hits and one run. McCrory took the ball in the eighth, and got through one and a third before allowing a single to Steve Pearce, beaning Craig Wilson, and eventually giving up the game-losing single to Kevin Thompson.

Catcher Omir Santos was 1-for -2 with a double and a walk, and Sebastien Boucher had two hits. Oscar Salazar, Chris Roberson and Eider Torres also got base knocks. Scott Moore started at shortstop and batted third, and went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts.

Bowie @ Akron, PPD/Rain

The Baysox start a three-game set in Erie tomorrow.

Frederick 7, Myrtle Beach 3

Wieters Watch! 0-for-2, but he walked three times.

The Keys offense exploded for 13 hits on the day, with Brandon Tripp leading the charge, going 3-for-5 with a couple of solo homers. Chris Amador also homered, and Daniel Figueroa had three hits. Chris Vinyard was 1-for-3 with two walks in a rare start at first base, as Brandon Snyder got the game off.

Jacob Renshaw improved to 2-0 on the season, going seven and two-thirds with six strikeouts. He allowed three earned on four hits.

Lakewood 7, Delmarva 4 (11 innings)

The BlueClaws dropped three in the top of the 11th and Delmarva was unable to answer.

Pinch-hitter/left fielder David Cash had an RBI walk and an RBI single in the game, and the keystone combo of Jonathan Tucker and Pedro Florimon, Jr., had two hits each, and Tyler Henson was 1-for-5 with two RBI.

Tony Butler pitched six innings, giving up two earned on five hits and a walk, striking out four. Cliff Flagello took the loss in the 11th, giving up the three Lakewood runs.

RECORDS
Norfolk 5-5
Frederick 5-3
Delmarva 3-5

Norfolk 6, Rochester 5

The Tides faced recovering stud lefty Francisco Liriano in his second rehab start of the season, touching him up for three earned on five hits over four innings. Liriano struck out three and walked three. He'll be up with Minnesota again soon. These things aren't so much about the results as the arm strength and things of that nature.

Veteran Casey Daigle took the loss for the Red Wings. Hayden Penn got the win for Norfolk, going 5 2/3 and allowing four earned on eight scattered hits, with three strikeouts and a walk. Much better than his first disastrous start of the season. Bob McCrory got his second save, and Esteban Yan and Ryan Bukvich both pitched.

At the plate, Luis Terrero was 3-for-3 and fell a home run short of the cycle. He also walked twice and drove in three runs, but despite getting on base five times, did not score. Eider Torres scored twice. Mike Costanzo was 1-for-4 and Adam Stern went 2-for-3. Jon Knott went 3-for-4 with two RBI for Rochester.

Norfolk is now 3-3.

Bowie 8, Reading 3

The Baysox finally got their first win of the season thanks to two four-run innings and a nice start from Chris Waters. Waters went five scoreless, two-hit innings with four strikeouts and no walks. Gerardo Casadiego allowed all three Reading runs in the top of the ninth. Between them, Felix Romero threw two scoreless innings.

Second baseman Jonathan Tucker had a big game at the plate, going 2-for-4 with four RBI. Ryan Finan was 3-for-4 two doubles and an RBI. Nolan Reimold went 0-for-3 with a walk, making him 4-for-24 (.167) for the season.

Bowie is 1-5.

Frederick 8, Kinston 7

Wieters Watch! The future All-Star was 2-for-3 with a walk and two RBI.

Chris Amador and Chris Vinyard also had two hits for the Keys, and Vinyard hit his first homer of the season. Jacob Renshaw, who turns 22 on April 29, got the win with a sloppy but effective five inning start (1 H, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 ER). Jason Burch got his second save, a one-outer in the ninth.

The Keys jumped out to a 7-2 lead before having to hold off the Indians. Frederick is 3-1.

Lake County 5, Delmarva 3

The Shorebirds were able to rap out just four hits on the night, two of which came off the bat of Joseph "Balls" Mahoney. Both of Mahoney's hits were doubles. Joseph Nowicki had two RBI.

Tony Butler took the loss, but had a solid start. He went five innings, giving up three earned on three hits, with no walks and three strikeouts. He gave up a solo home run to Captains third baseman Karexon Sanchez -- great name. Delmarva is 1-3 on the year.

In the tremendously scientific poll that has been featured on our right sidebar recently, we got a resounding answer to the question, "What O's pitching prospect excites you most?"

Results (of 128 voters):

1. Chris Tillman, 33%
2. Radhames Liz and Jake Arrieta, 14%
3. Chorye Spoone, 10%
4. Hayden Penn, 7%
5. Garrett Olson and Troy Patton, 5%
6. Brandon Erbe, 3%
7. Tony Butler and Tim Bascom, 1%
8. Pedro Beato and David Hernandez, 0% (one vote each)

I get the feeling that some of Tillman's friends and family may have gotten here via Google and upped his vote count, since it was tight between Arrieta and Tillman early on, and then Chris totally outran the pack in a hurry.

My vote went to Arrieta, the guy I think is the O's best non-Wieters draft pick in years. Getting what John Sickels calls a first round talent in the fifth round, and then giving him money to sign out of TCU was a very worthwhile gamble by a newly ballsy front office. Arrieta mowed down hitters in his debut at High-A Frederick, and it shouldn't be long before we see him in Bowie with Tillman and Spoone. He's a polished talent whose senior year in college appears to have been the result of something that was not at all his talent level.

You know who else had a rough end of his college career? John Maine. In Maine's junior year at UNC Charlotte, he posted a 3.83 ERA over 134 innings. He was the Conference USA Pitcher of the Year.

In his senior year, he went 94 innings, and his ERA stood at 5.65 when it was all said and done. His walks were up, his hits were way up, and his stock dropped. He was a sixth round draft pick.

Arrieta's junior year saw him named the Mountain West Conference Pitcher of the Year, a second team All-American, and he put up a 2.35 ERA in 111 2/3 innings. He struck out an even nine per nine innings, and had a 3-to-1 K-to-BB ratio. In his senior year, he didn't even have the same type of unsuccessful season that plagued Maine. Arrieta had a 3.01 ERA in 98 2/3 innings, but that was a disappointment for a guy that had dominated a year before. His WHIP jumped .22 points, and his walks went from 3/9 IP to 4.56/9 IP. His strikeouts went down .52 per nine.

A guy that was drafted in the 31st round 2004 (Cincinnati) and 26th round in 2005 (Milwaukee) was looking like a first round pick after his junior year. He slid to the fifth.

The O's paid him good money, but Arrieta and Wieters in the same draft? That's worth the financial risk.

Who'd you go with?

John Sickels of Minor League Ball is one of the foremost experts on prospects today. Yearly, he publishes The Baseball Prospect Book, which is a wonderful resource for those with any interest in the subject whatsoever. If you wish to order the book -- and I sincerely do recommend it -- you can do so at JohnSickels.net.

I got the chance to send John some questions about the O's farm system recently, and he was kind enough to share his time and insight. While I'm "fairly well-informed," John for sure knows his stuff. Listen to him before you listen to me.

Camden Chat: How much has the Orioles system really improved since the dark days under Syd Thrift's watch? Has it really been much of a dramatic turnaround, or does it just seem like that because they were so incredibly bad?

John Sickels: Well it’s always a matter of perspective. I’d rate the Orioles system as slightly above average now, though not elite. There is more depth than there used to be, and a few guys who could be impact players. I think it is a legitimate turnaround.

Camden Chat: Scott Moore and Mike Costanzo seem to be essentially the exact same player. Is there really any difference in the two? Does one project as better than the other?

John Sickels: They are pretty similar, born one month apart. Both have power from the left side of course. Costanzo will draw more walks, but Moore has a bit more athleticism and is more versatile defensively, easier to fit on the roster in a reserve role. I gave them both Grade C+ ratings in the book, so yeah, they are very close.

Camden Chat: Nolan Reimold's injuries have been his burden during his rise through the system. At 24, is he behind what would have originally been considered on schedule, or is he still cutting a good pace?

John Sickels: Well he is behind, but much of that is because of the injury. Given how well he hit early last year in Double-A, he would probably have seen Triple-A and perhaps the majors at some point last year if he had not gotten injured. I don’t think it is critical yet, but he needs to have a good season this year.

Camden Chat: Does Brandon Snyder have a real major league future at first base?

John Sickels: I’m not sure he’s going to have quite enough home run power to be a starting first baseman in the majors. He’s just 21 and has time to improve that, of course. It’s much too early to conclude he won’t make it. But certainly the hill is steeper as a first baseman.

Camden Chat: How soon are we going to see Matt Wieters in Baltimore, and would you rank him among the five best position prospects in baseball?

John Sickels: I imagine you will see Wieters late this year or by mid-season 2009 at the latest. He’s really good, the hype is for real. I have him at Number Seven on the hitting prospect list, but he could be Number One or Number Two a year from now once he establishes himself and other guys ahead of him graduate.

Camden Chat: Were the O's smart to go so far over slot to draft and sign Jake Arrieta (pictured)?

John Sickels: They got a first-round talent in the fifth round, so yeah I think it was a good idea. His command issues at TCU should be fixable according to what I’ve heard. I think it was a gamble worth taking.

Camden Chat: He's still very young, but how much does Brandon Erbe's disastrous 2007 at Frederick hurt his stock?

John Sickels: Well it certainly doesn’t help. His mechanics fell apart last year but supposedly he put them back together in instructional league. Assuming that is true, and that there is no underlying health problem that we don’t know about, he has a good shot at rebounding. We will see. I lowered him from Grade B+ in the 2007 book to Grade C+ in 2008, though I still like his long-term potential, assuming good health.

Camden Chat: Could Hayden Penn be another John Maine? That is, a guy that is at one point regarded as the O's best pitching prospect, then kind of gets lost in the shuffle?

John Sickels: I can see that, yes, though the parallel is inexact as I think their styles of pitching are rather different and the things that have held Penn back are different than the things that held Maine back.

Camden Chat: How high is Chris Tillman's ceiling? Some are regarding him as the potential gem of the Bedard trade.

John Sickels: I really like what Tillman did last year. The Mariners took a huge and reckless gamble in promoting him to the California League so quickly last year, but after a rough start he adjusted and made the decision look good in retrospect. I still think it was a stupid decision, putting a 19 year old kid with 8 Class A starts under his belt in High Desert, but Tillman made it work and he deserves all the credit for that. If he stays healthy and maintains his command, he can be a number two starter.

Camden Chat: Who looks like the better prospect -- Kam Mickolio or Tony Butler?

John Sickels: Mickolio will get to the majors first, but Butler is the better long-term prospect. He was extremely impressive late in the season in the Midwest League, showing a good fastball and a terrific changeup. He’s also extremely bright and motivated to succeed. Like Tillman, if he stays healthy he should be a very impressive pitcher, granted “if he stays healthy” is always the question with these young guys.

Camden Chat: Thanks, John. Your time and knowledge is greatly appreciated.

John Sickels: Thanks! I appreciate the opportunity. 

Don't forget to visit Minor League Ball for daily prospect talk that is second to none.

Photos courtesy Norfolk Tides

The AAA Tides kick off their season tonight with a game at home against Buffalo, so let's take a quick look at our boys in Norfolk.

The rotation should be a strong point, with (from left to right) Radhames Liz, Garrett Olson, Hayden Penn, Jon Leicester and James/Jim Johnson. All of them are at the point in their careers where they're available to be called up -- for some, that's good news, but for Leicester in particular, not so much.

I do root for Jon Leicester, who was once a high-ceiling prospect in the Cubs organization during the Wellemeyer/Mitre period, but he's never delivered on that ceiling. He went 0-11 with a 6.78 season in his last season with the University of Memphis, but was drafted in the 11th round of the 2000 draft just because he had really good stuff. Through the minor leagues, Leicester never once had a dominant season, though he fairly frequently had flashes of true potential. He smoked the International League last year while in Norfolk (3-3, 2.22/1.08, 65 IP), but struggled as usual once in the big leagues, posting a 7.59 ERA in 32 innings.

He was in the running for the fifth spot in the rotation this spring, but finished a distant third to Brian Burres and Matt Albers. It was to be expected. As far as the Norfolk rotation goes, Leicester is the one who probably, if you want to be honest about it, tops out at the level he's at. He's 29 now; if he was going to make a major league impact, he probably would have done it by now, though he might have a nice relief season or three in his arm.

Jim Johnson had a 4.07/1.43 ERA/WHIP at Norfolk last season, which was a big, big disappointment. As Baseball Prospectus put it, he's "the same pitcher he was three years ago; that made him one of the better pitchers in A-ball in 2005, but he was supposed to build on that, not stall." Johnson turns 25 in June. He'll need an impressive season.

Liz, Olson and Penn have already been discussed here recently. They should be a really strong front three for the Tides.

The Norfolk 'pen is filled with emergency call-up guys like Esteban Yan, Lance Cormier and Roberto Novoa. There's really nothing special there, except perhaps, maybe, for Bob McCrory.

As far as the position players go...well, that's a different story.

Only Mike Costanzo (pictured) is likely to really make any impact on the major league club. This is a pitching-heavy, hitting-light system, and Norfolk is your run-of-the-mill Triple-A team filled with minor league veterans and major league flameouts.

Among the flameouts is Tike Redman, a 31-year old ex-Pirates prospect who had numerous chances in Pittsburgh to win a major league job and never did so. After being out of the majors in 2006, Redman found himself in the independent boondocks last year before the O's signed him and assigned him to the Tides. At Norfolk, Redman hit .304/.372/.416 in 336 plate appearances, which is nothing special for a 30-year old outfielder who's had plenty of Triple-A experience, but it got him a trip to Baltimore for 139 PAs, where he hit an inspiring .318/.341/.462 and stole seven bases in eight attempts. He's not someone you should expect anything from (.253/.287/.327 at AAA Toledo in 2006, for instance), but good luck to him.

He'll be sharing the outfield most nights, I'd guess, with the returning Luis Terrero and Sebastien Boucher. Terrero, 28, hit .318/.367/.560 for Ottawa in 2006, but struggled between the White Sox and Charlotte last year. He's back in the O's system as a Triple-A filler.

I figure Boucher will get more PT than Adam Stern and Chris Roberson, but I could be wrong. And it also doesn't really matter. Stern's career highlight will forever be that inside the park home run against the United States in the World Baseball Classic, and Roberson can't play. Boucher has some wheels, like the other two, but is slightly younger. We got him in the John Parrish deal last year. None of them are going to be major league contributors, though Boucher has some nice on-base skills (.372 OBP in his minor league career).

The infield's best player, past Costanzo, is recent free agent pickup Alex Cintron, who is almost certainly going to be in Baltimore as soon as possible. Cintron is nothing special at all, but he beats the hell out of Luis Hernandez and Brandon Fahey, which is more unfortunate than anything. The O's probably want Hernandez to be able to play, but once he's past proving that he can't, Cintron will take his job. And Fahey is only there because the Cubs signed and released Cintron before the season started. If Alex had signed with the Orioles to begin with, he'd be in Baltimore right now.

33-year old Chris Heintz and Omir Santos will handle the catching duties. Heintz has been plugging away in the sticks since '96, when the White Sox drafted him. To put that into perspective, that was the second-to-last year the Orioles made the playoffs. The only way either of these guys sees major league time this year will be if Ramon or Quiroz live up to their reps and get hurt.

AAA is generally not the most exciting or interesting level of a minor league system, and that's true here, as well. It's a holding zone for fringe major leaguers in most cases. But 3/5 of this rotation could have beaten out Brian Burres this spring and I'd have been OK with that. That's something to pay attention to.

One of the things I want to try to do with Camden Chat this season is focus more on what's happening down on the farm. All things considered, that's a huge part of the story of the Baltimore Orioles these days, which is a great, great thing. 

In the past, there just hasn't been a whole lot to talk about. Now, maybe there is.

I don't claim to be a great prospects brain or anything like that -- this is a list composed simply because I like making lists, I like prospect talk, and I can read stat sheets and scouting reports the same as any of you can. If you want to get better in-depth prospect analysis, I highly recommend, as always, John Sickels' Minor League Ball or Baseball Prospectus, among many others.

First off, there's one guy I left off that makes every O's list, and that's Jim Hoey. There is not a bigger non-believer in Hoey than me, probably. I firmly admit this, and you're free to think I'm an idiot. He's at least fairly well regarded by almost everyone else. Anyone who's seen Hoey pitch knows that he's got a big fastball that is straight as an arrow and nothing else. He's the new Matt Anderson. I'd be pleased as punch if Hoey proved me wrong, but I don't think that's happening.

Without any further ado, let's get talking about the kids that'll be spending most of their days in Norfolk, Bowie, Frederick, or Delmarva, plus a couple of cats that are already on the O's but haven't quite passed out of prospectdom just yet.

19. Randor Bierd, RHP

Nice Rule 5 pickup from the Tigers, he put up a 5-to-1 K-to-BB ratio at Double-A Erie last season and is just 24. Bierd and I share the same birthday, too, which I just now found out -- he's exactly two years younger than I am. So happy belated, Randor, and congrats on making the team! Enjoy your sharp new suit.

18. Matt Albers, RHP

Already in the show last season with the Astros, he still came into 2008 more a prospect than anything else. He looked good in his O's debut on Opening Day, relieving a spent Jeremy Guthrie and at least holding down the fort at a 6-2 disadvantage. He went 4-11, 5.86/1.60 with Houston in 110 2/3 innings pitched in 2007. He'll wind up in the O's rotation before too long if Brian Burres lives up to his reputation.

17. Scott Moore/Mike Costanzo, 3B

They are the exact same player.

Moore was born on November 17, 1983; Costanzo was born on September 9, 1983.
Moore's career minor league line is .260/.348/.449. Costanzo's is .266/.364/.456.
Moore is 6'2"; Costanzo is 6'3".
Both bat left, throw right.
Both were willing to try any position necessary this spring. Costanzo gave catching a shot, while Moore was all over the place.

Moore was a nice pickup from the Cubs in the Trax trade, and we got Costanzo as part of the Tejada package, seemingly a throw-in more than anything else.

I have no idea how any system can have both of these players, but the Orioles have done it. The difference now is that Costanzo is a Norfolk Tide, while Moore is with the big club. We will also owe Scott Moore a debt of gratitude for being the player that pushed Jay Gibbons into the land of in-season free agency.

This isn't pretty. But when's the last time it was?

Let's get started.

BRIAN BURRES, LH

   IP   W   L    K   BB   ERA   WHIP

  103   4   9   71   44   5.66  1.62

Burres might win the fifth starter's job; he might not. Trembley is high on him thanks to his "impressive" 2007, which was impressive to the tune of a 5.95 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. Burres helped the team out in ways that have nothing to do with actual results, serving as a starter when needed, a mop-up man when needed, a long man when needed, an actual bullpen lefty (of sorts) when needed. He got knocked around, but maybe you can blame a lack of any role on that. How did he even know when he was going to pitch?

He was much better on the road (5.12/1.66 in 65 IP) than he was at Camden Yards (6.91/1.75 in 56 IP). He was hit hard by everyone, lefties teeing off at a .306 clip, and righties coming in at .281. His K-rate is OK; his BB-rate does not help him at all.

Burres' first three months were tolerable. It was the second half where he was ripped to shreds, posting a 7.92 ERA after the All-Star break.

I'd say something in Burres' favor, but there really isn't much. I actually think that projection is fairly optimistic.

DANIEL CABRERA, RH

   IP   W   L    K   BB   ERA   WHIP

  194  10  13   179  96   4.49  1.46

Talk about optimistic.

How many years in a row can one team and one fanbase be burned by a single player? Cabrera never really earned all the hopes and projections of potential stardom. He was brought up too early because the Orioles of 2004 had nothing better to do, and he's remained in the rotation save for a brief journey to the minors in 2006. He's walked 100 plus two straight years, his strikeout rate has gone down, and he just plain stunk up the jernt in 2007.

He was a replacement-level pitcher last year. He was no damn good at all.

That said, hey, electric arm, great size, he says stuff about using a changeup, and that's all well and good. When he proves it, start believing it. He's yet to come close to doing so on any consistent basis whatsoever. If he put up that line, I'd be happy with it. And I hope he blows it out of the water. If he produced, he's exactly the type of guy you can really get behind.

JEREMY GUTHRIE, RH

   IP   W   L    K   BB   ERA   WHIP

  184  10  11   137  57   4.28  1.35

St. Guts was one of the few enjoyable parts of the hapless 2007 Orioles, as he and Bedard actually had a period where they were giving us a fair chance at winning two out of five games.

His 2007 numbers would've been even better were it not for a very rough August (6.23 ERA), but his line was helped out by a pretty fair amount of luck on balls in play, too. Like Cabrera, if he puts up the line we're projecting, that'd be a success. He doesn't have ace stuff, though he's expected to carry the front end of this rotation. Should his success sustain on even that level, he could be a cog in the Baltimore rotation for a good while, though he is 29, which is a lot older than you'd guess given he was eligible for Rookie of the Year last season.

Most projections I've seen on Guthrie are not so kind, but it seems everyone is rooting for him to continue his success. It's been a bumpy road for Guthrie to get here, and when he got his shot with us, he made it a good one. The man still has a posse. Believe it!

ADAM LOEWEN, LH

   IP   W   L    K   BB   ERA   WHIP

  132   6  10   100  72   4.85 1.58

Looks like we're expecting the injury bug to bite Loewen again. He's long had durability issues, and while he's always had command problems, he was exceptionally wild during his 30 innings in 2007. There were starts where it seemed like he couldn't hit the strike zone if his life depended on it at times.

Unlike Burres and Guthrie, who are older than you would think at first glance, Loewen might actually be younger, as he's just now turning 24, and will be the youngest member of the Opening Day rotation no matter if Matt Albers beats Burres out or not.

That means there's still plenty of time for him to mature. Fellow Canuck southpaw Erik Bedard took a while himself, and was another guy that just couldn't shake nagging injuries that would disrupt his seasons. It's probably asking way too much of Loewenbrau to become another Erik Bedard, but like I always said about Bedard, lefties with Loewen's strikeout ability don't fall out of the sky. He's worth being patient with for the next couple of seasons.

STEVE TRACHSEL, RH

   IP   W   L    K   BB   ERA   WHIP

  112   4   9   41   50   5.48  1.63

Every possible sign there is points to this being a final, disastrous season in the sun for the 37-year old crafty righty. While he was competent as an Oriole (4.48/1.56 despite a hideous K-to-BB rate of 45-to-69), he flamed out bad in his return to his original team, the Chicago Cubs, going 1-3 with an 8.32 ERA over four starts.

He came back this spring as a non-roster invitee, with pretty much a guaranteed ticket to head north from Fort Lauderdale. Trax is a good guy and as a low-cost, no-risk piece of a rotation that's destined to be disastrously bad through some growing pains, he's not a bad pickup. Again, the O's went with the devil they know. Someone has to pitch those innings, and you have to accept facts sometimes, this one being that any manager, GM, owner, and team would be scared to death going out there with a rotation as volatile and inexperienced as Cabrera, Loewen, Guthrie and then two choices between Burres, Penn, Olson and Albers. Trachsel is comfort food, in a sense.

That doesn't make him any less likely to have to be pulled after two and a third innings while he's getting hammered, but it is what it is. But you do have to wonder, if they were going to just go get Steve Trachsel, why the O's didn't offer Kris Benson a minor league deal coming off of injury.

There really is a very good chance that this could be Trachsel's last season. Through trials with the Cubs, D-Rays, Blue Jays, Mets and O's, Steve Trachsel only got to pitch in two postseason games, for the 2006 Mets. And in one of those, you may recall, he went one inning and into the second without recording an out -- along the way, he walked five, gave up five hits, and five runs were scored by the Cardinals, who would grab a 2-1 series lead en route to their unlikely World Series championship. Trachsel probably would like to forget that October night, but it's almost certain that that was his final playoff game.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS!

Just among these five, we project a 34-52 record. We also project low innings pitched totals for three of the five, meaning we'd be seeing a lot of Garrett Olson, Hayden Penn, Matt Albers, Radhames Liz, maybe Jon Leicester, and potentially a couple of scrub pick-ups just to keep the chains moving from day-to-day.

But I'd rather watch this group than some of the bums that have started games for the Orioles over the last five seasons. Check this list: Victor Zambrano, Victor Santos, Jaret Wright, Kurt Birkins, John Halama, Eric DuBose, Dave Borkowski, Rick Bauer, Matt Riley, Kurt Ainsworth, Jason Johnson, Pat Hentgen, Sidney Ponson, Omar Daal (because we HAD to have a lefty, ANY LEFTY!), Damian Moss...

No longer are we trading this guy for this guy. It's a brave new world, one where there's a legitimate stockpile of actual pitching talent within the Orioles system. The only guys in that above list that had any were Riley, who was a flameout of massive proportions; Hentgen, who was long, long, long past his prime; Ponson, who is a story for another day; and Ainsworth, who was just another injury case.

They'll be bad. Most likely, really bad. But there's some hope.

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