It's been a while. Where should we begin? Feels like forever.

Yeah that's some Creed, wanna fighdabouddit?

The 2008 rivalry between the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles really started on February 8, 2008.

That was the day we traded Erik Bedard to the hopeful Mariners, who thought their 88-74 season in '07 was no fluke (it was), and that Bedard probably pushed them into serious contention (he didn't).

Let's compare the results of this trade. Bedard has gone 4-4 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 61 1/3 innings for the Mariners. He currently sits on the DL with "left shoulder stiffness." He is VORPin' a cool 11.0 this year.

And then there's Adam Jones. Happy 23rd birthday, big guy! Jones is hitting .274/.317/.403 -- not a world-beater yet, but he can clearly play. He's also a funny dude and is destined to be a long-time fan favorite. AdRock's VORP is 9.3.

George Sherrill is overrated as all hell by his 30 saves (4.23/1.46), but he had a great performance as the O's lone All-Star and has done a nice gap-filling job as the closer, a role for which he's just not particularly suited. That's not his fault; he's best maximized as a LOOGy who can not totally die against right-handed hitting, but he's done his job.

We won't even count the prospects we got back.

The Mariners came to town on April 4 for a four-game set. We swept them right the hell out of town, a series that included the amazing Luis Hernandez as Hero moment, his game-winning single that propelled the O's to a 3-2 win and popularized the phrase "This is Birdland." It was Luis Hernandez and that win that made "Birdland" go from laughable marketing gimmick to something bigger that we now love.

Later in the month, we went out to Seattle, lost the first game, and then won the next two, including a big comeback in game three sparked by a Jay Payton home run and -- if I may be so bold -- my own personal, undying optimism (which has since died).

But baseball moves fast. Luis Hernandez isn't with us anymore, nor is the outstanding honorary Oriole in the Mariners bullpen, Eric O'Flaherty.

But all great rivalries must begin anew, really, year-by-year. Players come and go -- it's the passion and joy that makes fierce competitions like Orioles-Mariners what they are.

The last time we saw Seattle, Lookout Landing user 'Happybelly' remarked, "Get the Orioles the f--k out of here."

Look out -- here we come again!

You may recall the original list (CC.com's Fairly Well-Informed Top 20 O's Prospects) from April, and hey, let's kill some time this morning and look at how the 20 fellas are doing in 2008.

(Teams that the player has also played for this season are in parentheses. Current team is listed first, obviously.)

1. Matt Wieters, C, Bowie (Frederick)

With the way Wieters is raking in his first pro season, it might not be long until we see him sporting that cap for good.

In 69 games with Frederick, Wieters torched the Carolina League to the tune of .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers. In 13 games since his call-up to Double-A Bowie, the Georgia Tech grad is hitting .356/.442/.600 with two more longballs. He's not just the best Orioles prospects, I'd have to rate him top five in all of baseball right now. There has been no learning curve at all. He stormed out of the gates at Frederick and had only a couple of minor slumps along the way, proving in 229 at-bats that he was way too good for the league.

With the way Ramon Hernandez is hitting, fielding and aging, Wieters might see Baltimore by the end of the year. Why not? He's 22 years old, a polished college prospect, and he's treating the minor leagues like a Hall of Famer on a rehab assignment. He's coming.

2. Bill Rowell, 3B, Frederick

Even though he was only 18 years old when he hit the Sally League in 2007, his .426 slugging percentage was still a very mild discouragement. Still, it was easy to keep the faith in Rowell, whose 6'5" frame promises to deliver power at some point.

The question now might be if he'll ever deliver anything more than an eventual home run stroke. Let's not sugar coat it. We're talking about the ninth overall pick of the 2006 draft, and at 19, he's being dominated at High-A ball. Yes, he's only 19, and no, that's no reason to give up on him or even get close to giving up.

But is his putrid .230/.289/.360 line something that raises a red flag? Absolutely, it is. He missed a lot of April with a leg injury, then hit .253/.310/.396 in May. Hey, maybe just a late start, right? Give him time.

June was atrocious: .185/.241/.296. The good news is that through eight games in July, he's starting to heat up, at a .296/.367/.519 clip over eight games. Keep it "rowell"-in', Bill. Ahhhhhahahahaha!

Seriously, though.

3. Radhames Liz, RHP, Baltimore (Norfolk)

Liz has been made a necessity in Baltimore thanks to the injuries to Adam Loewen and the farewell 10-game disaster that was undoubtedly Steve Trachsel's last time in a baseball uniform that doesn't have him coaching little league or something.

He's not THAT young -- he turned 25 in June. His 11 starts in Norfolk went OK (4.05 ERA in 60 innings with a good K-rate), but he's clearly not there yet as a guy who's going to contribute positive results to a major league rotation. The stuff is good, but he leaves pitches up and has real control problems (shocker for an O's prospect).

Totally Rad (seriously, watch that video) still has real promise, because a good arm's a good arm, and at least he doesn't get hurt all the time. He's got gnarly potential. But what's with all the jogging? Can't he just learn magic and skip the aerobics?

Is Rick Kranitz, in fact, Zeb? Either way, I think Kranitz is totally decent.

4. Nolan Reimold, OF, Bowie

Facts are facts, and fact is, Nolan Reimold looks like a stoner. The kind that says "ganja green" and buys Hendrix shirts at Target.

His overall numbers are solid, at .286/.359/.500, and they are also hampered by a dismal April where he hit just .232/.324/.347. Reimold's ceiling might not be all that high -- I'm starting to think he'll end up sort of like Luke Scott, but a right-handed bat with more injury problems. He had a torrid May (.312/.414/.606, 6 HR), and he's on a rampage so far in July (.382/.389/.824, 4 HR).

In a perfect world, we finally see Nolan in Baltimore this year, too, and we see him for good starting next spring. There's no reason to not. Let's hope he can stay healthy this season, which has been his biggest problem to date. With the way Rowell's swinging right now, I think Reimold should be bumped up to No. 2 positional prospect.

5. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Frederick

The 22-year old TCU product that dropped in the draft and was a mild money gamble by the O's is paying off. See, between Wieters and Arrieta, is dealing with Scott Boras really all that bad? He's got good clients!

Arrieta is a Carolina League All-Star with a 2.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, with 108 strikeouts in 101.1 innings pitched. Not bad at all, eh?

He did have a rough June, missing a couple starts and posting a 5.03 ERA in 19.2 innings, but he dominated in April and May and his last two starts have been back to the general overpowering of High-A hitters. A bump up may soon be in the making here, too.

If anyone ever gives this guy the "Jake the Snake" nickname, I'm going to barf. Enough with that already. The world has seen enough Jakes the Snakes.

6. Chris Tillman, RHP, Bowie

Chris Tillman was serious when that photo is taken, and he's serious about striking fools out. With 87 whiffs in 83.2 innings at Bowie so far this season, he's sporting a 7-2 record and 3.12 ERA.

While his line might not look overly impressive -- good K-rate, but not eye-popping, good ERA but not dominant, decent but unexciting WHIP (1.31) -- you have to remember that Tillman turned 20 in April. This dude can't even go buy beer yet, and he's more than holding his own in Double-A, which in a lot of instances these days is the last step before the majors.

There's also almost no way he's fully grown into his body yet. At 6'5", he's listed at 195 pounds. He'll pack on at least 20 more before he's matured.

If we'd gotten nothing back besides Adam Jones and Tillman in the Bedard trade, it would stand right now as a first-class fleecing. While E.B. Farnum struggles mightily just to keep his head above water with the terrible Mariners, we've got a young center fielder with tremendous upside and a 20-year old that's working it in Double-A ball. Plus, we got MORE out of them. God. I genuinely feel bad for their fans.

7. Garrett Olson, LHP, Baltimore (Norfolk)

When Olson came up in 2007, he was No. 57, an obvious fill-in who would be back down as soon as his services were no longer necessary. His call-up this year came as No. 18, a guy who was taking a spot in the rotation. There's a lot to be said for numbers, even past spring training.

Olson's not been awesome or anything, at 5.65/1.57. Like Liz, he's suspceptible to getting lit right up on any night, which makes the nights where he looks smooth and effective easy to forget. He's 24, so he's still learning on the job, really.

But you can say this for Olson over Loewen: at least you know he'll be there every fifth day. While Loewen's debacle of a 2008 season is most likely over after two trips to the disabled list, Olson continues to ply his trade on the big stage, and it looks like he's here to stay for now. He was never supposed to be an ace or anything, most likely panning out to a No. 4 starter, or a No. 3 in good years.

The '08 Orioles, however, have gotten something very valuable from him. Innings. Innings that Mr. Major League Contract can't deliver. Loewen Replacement will be a position unto itself as long as Adam is an Oriole.

8. Chorye Spoone, RHP, Bowie

Spoone has made just nine starts, missing all of May and a portion of both April and June. And the starts he has made haven't been his best.

In those nine injury-affected outings, he's gone 3-3 with a 4.57 ERA and ugly 1.61 WHIP. But the really worrisome thing about his numbers is they aren't exactly out of the norm. Remember, Spoone's 2007 was considered a major step up. Everything improved dramatically. Right now, he's just pitching almost exactly like he did in 2005-06.

Let's just look at 2006-08, and you'll see what I mean:

The one rate that has spiked his his homers per nine. In 2006, he was at .35, last year at .47. This year, .87. That's a major difference. But I am back to questioning whether a guy named Chorye Spoone can be a good big league ballplayer. Tim Spooneybarger didn't make it -- in fact, he's with Aberdeen, which I will admit to being totally psyched on.

9. Tony Butler, LHP, Delmarva

Butler currently sits on the Shorebirds DL with tendinitis in his left arm. Not a great sign, but he's only 20. It would also help to explain what was a pretty lackluster performance for a genuine prospect (not a great one, but a real one) at Low-A.

In 55 innings prior to the injury, Butler had put up a 4.42 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, with 7.2 K/9. What is VERY encouraging is his outstanding BB rate, as he put just 11 on base via the free pass. Not too shabby at all there.

Butler was one of the other two pickups in the Bedard deal, and even though he's out of action right now, hey...we win again.

I would like to find out if he has an abnormally high singing voice so I know whether or not I can start calling him Tony Soprano.

You got a bee onna you hat.

10. Hayden Penn, RHP, Norfolk

These slight disappointments are sent to prepare
For what may hereafter befall;
For seasons of real disappointment and care,
Which commonly happen to all.
-- Jane Taylor, 'The Disappointment'

If it wasn't quite time to forget about Hayden Penn as any real part of the Orioles future in 2007, it certainly looks like it is now. The guy just isn't getting hitters out in Triple-A ball.

It also appears now that a great opportunity was missed to trade Penn in 2005 or even 2006, because he'd be a throw-in piece for anything worthwhile anymore.

This isn't really an injury case, though he missed much of 2007; or a bad luck case, or anything else. This is just a case of a guy who's not very good. I wanted to hold out hope for Hayden, but it's probably time to give up the ghost. He's a minor league gap-filler.

11. Tim Bascom, RHP, Frederick

I'm going to just go ahead and admit that my 10 and 11 guys are screwing the pooch a little bit so far in 2008. I was probably overrating Feel Good Story Bascom a little to begin with, and he's doing me no favors now.

THAT SAID...

He missed all of April and made just two starts in May, so he got a late jump and is probably still working to getting up to 100% on the field. Still, though, the numbers are the numbers. At 23, he's got a 4.89 ERA at Frederick. Not good. His K-to-BB is about 1.5-to-1. Not good. He's getting tagged by hitters. Not good.

12. Troy Patton, LHP, A Rehab Center

We got Patton hurt, he was hurt when I made the list, and he's hurt now.

13. Brandon Snyder, 1B, Frederick

His May and June numbers look outstanding, but that's only because you might have looked at his awful April beforehand. He's raking in July, but it's July 10th, so we'll wait and see. An .800ish OPS at Frederick for a first baseman just isn't going to cut it as far as climbing the ladder goes. You can get that in a good year from Chris Vinyard.

Also, to those that have tried to sell Vinyard to me, can we declare that whole bit over? He's OPSing .698. He's got a brick for a glove, and designated hitters that slug .355 are a detriment at any level.

Snyder remains one of my favorite players in the system, but it'd take a fool to not admit he's rather failing thus far. A whole lot of things have gone wrong in his pro career. He turns 22 in November, so it's time to get a move on.

Tell him, Red. Come on, Brandon. Make it. See your friend, and shake his hand.

14. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Frederick

2006 with Delmarva went swimmingly for Erbe at age 18. At 19, 2007 in Frederick was a disaster, as he put up a 6.26 ERA and all kinds of things were deemed in need of a tune-up.

2008 has been a mixed bag. He dominated in April (2.73 ERA) and June (2.32 ERA), but was treated like steel at the mighty hands of John Henry in May (7.07 ERA). He's started using his slider as an out pitch, and worked away from his high school curveball. The guy has a serious arm, with big heat, and is another tall pitcher with a still-lanky build.

He's 20, and has shown vast improvement this year. While the overall numbers might not be stunning, they miss the point. He's made a massive turnaround from a year that might have ruined a lot of hyped young pitchers, and even came back in June from a terrible month of May. He's moving back up.

15. David Hernandez, RHP, Bowie

Just might be time to give the sleeper prospect of the organization a serious look.

Simple reasoning, really. Hernandez's power arm might not get him by as a starter in the majors, but I suspect he might soon be able to do a fair Jim Johnson impersonation were the need to arise to have an extra arm in the bullpen. He's fanning 10.13 per nine innings this season, which is consistent with previous numbers. His ERA is way down, he's got his WHIP down at 1.25, and his fastball/slider combo is the real deal, though he doesn't have a whole lot else.

The downside is what I already said, he might not make it as a starter given his lack of secondary pitches. But the upside might be a shutdown power reliever, too. No rush, though, since he IS a sleeper.

Quickies on 16-20, because they'd all either fall off this list or not qualify anymore:

16. Pedro Beato, RHP, Frederick: He's trying to get by striking out about four per nine. It's not going to work. Beato's peripherals indicate bad things to come if he ever gets out of A-ball.

17. Scott Moore/Mike Costanzo, 3B, Norfolk: It's taken until July, but Moore is finally hitting at Norfolk. There's also still zero excuse for his demotion in favor of the bumbling nimrods we've been putting at shortstop or a 100th pitcher. Costanzo's had a bit of a rough year, himself.

18. Matt Albers, RHP, DL: Uh ohhhh...

19. Randor Bierd, RHP, Rehab: RAN-DOOOOOR! was impressing before the injury. Here's looking forward to his return.

20. Bob McCrory, RHP, Norfolk: Will probably spend his life on the AAA-to-MLB train. Got smacked around and walked everyone in two-thirds of an inning of MLB work this year over two games. What about Bob?

Jeff Nettles is slugging the ball pretty well right now. Let's be honest about why someone who's 29 years old and spent five years outside of real baseball is playing on anyone's Double-A team. First off, he's Graig Nettles' son. Which also makes him Jim Nettles' nephew! And he's an in-law of Mike Sweeney, since Jim's daughter married Sweeney. He's not a good player. He's just not. He never has been. He was in indy league baseball for about five years before the Royals picked him up to play at Wichita (AA) last season. The O's grabbed him because they have no hitting prospects. He was once a 53rd round pick of the Blue Jays, but went pro when taken in the 47th round for the big money by the Yankees, who were probably just doing Graig a solid. Not a nice bunch of stuff to say, I don't suppose, but it's not my job to make excuses for why Jeff Nettles is the starting third baseman for the Bowie Baysox.

Luis Montanez is 26 and a massive flameout with whom you may already be familiar if you're a Cubs fan. He was taken third overall in the 2000 draft and never did anything. He never even had an encouraging season, really. I mean, I suppose you could say him tearing up the Midwest League was pretty neat, if you don't take into account that he was 23 by then and was expected to already be in the majors. It's been a tough career for him. Sometimes, I wonder what it is that makes a guy like Montanez or Nettles keep soldiering on. Love of the game is one thing, but jeez. It reminds me of the line from Rudy, when one of the assistant coaches bluntly addresses the walk -on hopefuls: "Now, if any of you has any dreams of one day running out of that tunnel with your gold helmet shining in the sun, you'd best leave them right here."

Reimold is starting to hit a little, thank the heavens. He remains our second-best position prospect. Expect nothing from the rest of these guys. Like the Tides, the Baysox are struggling with hitting, although it's nice to see Jonathan Tucker getting on base the way he is. I like him for no particular reason. Just do.

Tillman is still a diaper dandy, more or less, so his control issues are (1) not a big deal and (2) pretty much totally expected. Spoone's are a little more troubling.

But the other three rotation regulars have been chewing up the Eastern League. Waters should be -- he's 27 years old. Berken's 25 and is sort of at "now or never" himself. Hernandez was regarded by Sickels and Baseball Prospectus as a sleeper dude, so him I'm actually getting a little excited about, despite the iffy WHIP. I mean look at that K-rate -- 13.32 K/9. That's nasty. Even if he never masters a whole repertoire, that kind of power arm could make him millions as a reliever.

But if it's ratios you want to focus on, jeez, take a gander at Berken's absurd K-to-BB. 15-to-1? The Baysox bullpen deserves just as much flak for the team's struggles as the flaccid lineup does, too. Mickolio, Miller and Romero are doing fine, but the rest of them are gasoline men.

Norfolk 8, Richmond 7 (14 innings - April 23)

The Tides were off on the 22nd, which essentially gave them three straight days off, although they probably had uniforms on the previous two before getting rained out against Durham.

This one went long, with Jon Leicester throwing 79 pitches in three innings of working before handing it over to Andy Mitchell for three. Craig Anderson threw an inning, followed by one from Roberto Novoa, two from Bob McCrory, three from Lance Cormier, and one from Ryan Bukvich, who got the W.

Alex Cintron singled Eider Torres home in the bottom of the 14th with one out and the bases loaded for the winning score. On the day, Cintron went 2-for-6 with 4 RBI. Mike Costanzo was 2-for-5 with a walk and a solo homer, his second on the season. Torres went 4-for-7 with an RBI. Scott Moore was 1-for-4.

Bowie 7, Connecticut 3 (April 22)
Bowie 3, Connecticut 2 (April 23)

In the first game, Jason Berken went 5 2/3 with eight strikeouts and a walk for the win. At the plate, Jonathan Tucker, Ben Davis and Sebastien Boucher all had two hits, and Nolan Reimold was 1-for-4 with a pair of runs scored. Davis and Tucker each had two RBI.

On the 23rd, Chris Tillman put together a five-inning start for the win (4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K), with Felix Romero, Gerardo Casadiego and Julio Manon shutting the Defenders down the rest of the night. Zach Dillon was 3-for-4 to pace the Bowie offense. Sebastien Boucher had two RBI.

Frederick 4, Wilmington 1 (April 22 - Game 1)
Frederick 2, Wilmington 1 (April 22 - Game 2)
Wilmington 4, Frederick 3 (April 23)

Wieters Watch! 1-for-7 over the three games. OH GOD.

Rowell Watch! He's back in the lineup. That's good. Rowell went 3-for-9 over the three games.

Brandon Erbe threw a complete game (7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) in the double header. Nobody else did too much worth noting.

Lake County 7, Delmarva 1 (April 22 - Game 1)
Lake County 11, Delmarva 1 (April 22 - Game 2)
Delmarva 6, Lake County 3 (April 23)

Game one: Delmarva made seven errors.

Game two: Delmarva made four errors.

Game three: Delmarva made no errors! Matt Angle hit a homer.

I'm not doing a photo for any of the players today because there just aren't that many available, so enjoy this:

via sportsillustrated.cnn.com

[Note by SC, 04/24/08 10:07 AM EDT ]: He was never the toughest out in baseball.

Norfolk 10, Louisville 3

Big shots carried the Tides to a blowout win, as Luis Terrero hit a grand slam and Oscar Salazar launched a three-run shot to account for 70% of the Norfolk runs. The kicker? Terrero's salami came in the top of the ninth inning, a frame in which Norfolk dropped the seven runs that were the difference in the outcome.

Everyone in the starting lineup besides Scott Moore had a hit, and everyone got on base either via base hit or the free pass. Terrero, Eider Torres, Chris Heintz, Chris Roberson and Adam Stern had two hits each.

Hayden Penn turned in another good performance, going seven innings and striking out nine Bats batsmen, allowing three runs (two earned) on four hits and two walks. Lance Cormier got the win in relief.

Bowie 5, Akron 4 (10 innings)

More late-game heroics in the O's system came from Bowie, as Luis Montanez hit a walk-off solo shot in the bottom of the tenth inning to give the Basox the win over the Aeros.

Struggling Nolan Reimold went 1-for-4 with a strikeout after being dropped to sixth in the order. Montanez was 2-for-5, and third baseman Jeff Nettles homered in his third straight game, a solo shot in the second inning. It was his fifth long ball on the young season. Jonathan Tucker was 2-for-2 with two walks.

On the hill, Chris Tillman struggled with his command, going four and a third innings and walking five while fanning four. He gave up two runs on two hits. Julio Manon blew a save when Akron tied it at four in the top of the ninth, but picked up the win.

Winston-Salem 9, Frederick 4

Wieters Watch! 1-for-5 with an RBI.

Rowell Watch! He still hasn't returned from injury after "tweaking" his ankle a couple weeks ago.

The Keys scattered ten hits, all singles, and made three errors in the loss. Everyone in the starting lineup did get a hit, so I hope they all got a Coke and a piece of pizza for trying hard. Chris Vinyard, with two hits, maybe gets a breadstick, too.

Lakewood 5, Delmarva 4

After tying it at four in the top of the eighth inning, Jeff Moore gave up a solo homer to Michael Durant to lead off the Lakewood half of the frame, and that wound up being all she wrote.

Tony Butler's line: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. The Shorebirds committed four errors.

At the plate, Matt Angle, Joseph Nowicki and Tyler Henson had two hits each, including Nowick and Henson homers.

Indianapolis 4, Norfolk 3 

Craig Anderson started for the Tides, going 4 1/3 with five strikeouts, one walk, and one run allowed, but a three-run fifth inning for Indianapolis was enough to win the game, as there was no more scoring from that point on. Norfolk had led 3-1.

Chris Heintz and Chris Roberson had two hits apiece for Norfolk, with Heintz managing to leg out a triple. It was a three-bag kind of day for 30-something Oriole catchers. Roberson had two RBIs and also stole a base. Mike Costanzo was 0-for-3 with three whiffs and a walk.

Akron 7, Bowie 3

Jonathan Tucker was 2-for-4 with a double, raising his season average to .314, but the star of the loss was young Chris Tillman, who threw five innings of no-hit ball, walking one and striking out two. He was pulled after facing 16 batters, and Daniel Lonsberry took over.

Lonsberry pitched two-thirds of an inning, allowing six earned runs on three hits and two walks. Kam Mickolio inherited three runners from Lonsberry, and all scored. The Baysox got all three of their runs in the top of the fifth, and Akron plated all seven of their runs in the bottom of the sixth.

Nolan Reimold was 0-for-3 with a walk. He's hitting .162.

Frederick 6, Myrtle Beach 2

Wieters Watch! Wieters was 2-for-4 with his third home run and a walk. Matt Wieters is currently hitting .524/.621/1.000 with three homers, seven RBI, seven walks and two strikeouts.

Brandon Snyder was 1-for-3 with a double. Pedro Beato pitched six innings for the win, and Kyle Schmidt got a three-inning save.

Delmarva 2, Lakewood 1

Joseph Nowicki, Tyler Henson and Wally Crancer all went 2-for-4, and Luis Noel had a good start for the Shorebirds (5 IP, 6 H, 1 ER), but the win went to Joseph Esposito in relief. Pedro Florimon, Jr., scored the winning run in the bottom of the ninth on a wild pitch from Lakewood reliever Joseph Rocchio. That's how you win a ballgame!

RECORDS
Norfolk 5-5
Bowie 3-7
Frederick 5-3
Delmarva 4-4

In the tremendously scientific poll that has been featured on our right sidebar recently, we got a resounding answer to the question, "What O's pitching prospect excites you most?"

Results (of 128 voters):

1. Chris Tillman, 33%
2. Radhames Liz and Jake Arrieta, 14%
3. Chorye Spoone, 10%
4. Hayden Penn, 7%
5. Garrett Olson and Troy Patton, 5%
6. Brandon Erbe, 3%
7. Tony Butler and Tim Bascom, 1%
8. Pedro Beato and David Hernandez, 0% (one vote each)

I get the feeling that some of Tillman's friends and family may have gotten here via Google and upped his vote count, since it was tight between Arrieta and Tillman early on, and then Chris totally outran the pack in a hurry.

My vote went to Arrieta, the guy I think is the O's best non-Wieters draft pick in years. Getting what John Sickels calls a first round talent in the fifth round, and then giving him money to sign out of TCU was a very worthwhile gamble by a newly ballsy front office. Arrieta mowed down hitters in his debut at High-A Frederick, and it shouldn't be long before we see him in Bowie with Tillman and Spoone. He's a polished talent whose senior year in college appears to have been the result of something that was not at all his talent level.

You know who else had a rough end of his college career? John Maine. In Maine's junior year at UNC Charlotte, he posted a 3.83 ERA over 134 innings. He was the Conference USA Pitcher of the Year.

In his senior year, he went 94 innings, and his ERA stood at 5.65 when it was all said and done. His walks were up, his hits were way up, and his stock dropped. He was a sixth round draft pick.

Arrieta's junior year saw him named the Mountain West Conference Pitcher of the Year, a second team All-American, and he put up a 2.35 ERA in 111 2/3 innings. He struck out an even nine per nine innings, and had a 3-to-1 K-to-BB ratio. In his senior year, he didn't even have the same type of unsuccessful season that plagued Maine. Arrieta had a 3.01 ERA in 98 2/3 innings, but that was a disappointment for a guy that had dominated a year before. His WHIP jumped .22 points, and his walks went from 3/9 IP to 4.56/9 IP. His strikeouts went down .52 per nine.

A guy that was drafted in the 31st round 2004 (Cincinnati) and 26th round in 2005 (Milwaukee) was looking like a first round pick after his junior year. He slid to the fifth.

The O's paid him good money, but Arrieta and Wieters in the same draft? That's worth the financial risk.

Who'd you go with?

Rochester 4, Norfolk 1

Our old Triple-A affiliate shut down our newest Triple-A affiliate, as the Red Wings got two hits apiece from Garrett Jones, Randy Ruiz and Brian Buscher and five and two-thirds shutout innings from starter Kevin Mulvey en route to victory. Former Oriole Jon Knott went 0-for-3 with a walk and two strikeouts for Rochester.

Jim Johnson went four innings to take the loss, allowing one earned on two hits with a walk and two strikeouts. Relievers Craig Anderson (2 2/3, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 K) and Lance Cormier (2 1/3, 4 H, 1 ER, BB, 3 K) were both hit pretty hard. The Tides didn't get on the board until it was 3-0 Rochester, when nine-hitter Mike McCoy drove in catcher Chris Heintz. The Tides are now 2-3.

Reading 6, Bowie 3 (10 innings)

The Baysox extended their season-starting winless streak to five games with a 6-3 loss to Reading, giving up three runs in the top of the tenth inning after having rallied to tie it in the bottom of the seventh.

Veteran catcher Ben Davis went 2-for-5, but the runs came from the bottom of the order. Eight-hitter Jonathan Tucker was 1-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored, and Kennard Jones in the nine spot scored the other Bowie run on a 1-for-3 day. Jones also had an RBI, and the other two steaks came from Mike Rodriguez (hitting .381) and Blake Davis at the top of the lineup. Nolan Reimold was 1-for-5 with two whiffs.

On the mound, Chris Tillman made his first Junior Oriole start, and he struggled. Tillman was yanked after two innings work, allowing two earned on four hits with three walks and three strikeouts. Jim Miller threw three innings of relief, and Kam Mickolio and Rommie Lewis, Jr., threw two each. Old Man Manon was the goat in the tenth, giving up the three runs on two hits and a walk.

Frederick and Delmarva both had the day off.

John Sickels of Minor League Ball is one of the foremost experts on prospects today. Yearly, he publishes The Baseball Prospect Book, which is a wonderful resource for those with any interest in the subject whatsoever. If you wish to order the book -- and I sincerely do recommend it -- you can do so at JohnSickels.net.

I got the chance to send John some questions about the O's farm system recently, and he was kind enough to share his time and insight. While I'm "fairly well-informed," John for sure knows his stuff. Listen to him before you listen to me.

Camden Chat: How much has the Orioles system really improved since the dark days under Syd Thrift's watch? Has it really been much of a dramatic turnaround, or does it just seem like that because they were so incredibly bad?

John Sickels: Well it’s always a matter of perspective. I’d rate the Orioles system as slightly above average now, though not elite. There is more depth than there used to be, and a few guys who could be impact players. I think it is a legitimate turnaround.

Camden Chat: Scott Moore and Mike Costanzo seem to be essentially the exact same player. Is there really any difference in the two? Does one project as better than the other?

John Sickels: They are pretty similar, born one month apart. Both have power from the left side of course. Costanzo will draw more walks, but Moore has a bit more athleticism and is more versatile defensively, easier to fit on the roster in a reserve role. I gave them both Grade C+ ratings in the book, so yeah, they are very close.

Camden Chat: Nolan Reimold's injuries have been his burden during his rise through the system. At 24, is he behind what would have originally been considered on schedule, or is he still cutting a good pace?

John Sickels: Well he is behind, but much of that is because of the injury. Given how well he hit early last year in Double-A, he would probably have seen Triple-A and perhaps the majors at some point last year if he had not gotten injured. I don’t think it is critical yet, but he needs to have a good season this year.

Camden Chat: Does Brandon Snyder have a real major league future at first base?

John Sickels: I’m not sure he’s going to have quite enough home run power to be a starting first baseman in the majors. He’s just 21 and has time to improve that, of course. It’s much too early to conclude he won’t make it. But certainly the hill is steeper as a first baseman.

Camden Chat: How soon are we going to see Matt Wieters in Baltimore, and would you rank him among the five best position prospects in baseball?

John Sickels: I imagine you will see Wieters late this year or by mid-season 2009 at the latest. He’s really good, the hype is for real. I have him at Number Seven on the hitting prospect list, but he could be Number One or Number Two a year from now once he establishes himself and other guys ahead of him graduate.

Camden Chat: Were the O's smart to go so far over slot to draft and sign Jake Arrieta (pictured)?

John Sickels: They got a first-round talent in the fifth round, so yeah I think it was a good idea. His command issues at TCU should be fixable according to what I’ve heard. I think it was a gamble worth taking.

Camden Chat: He's still very young, but how much does Brandon Erbe's disastrous 2007 at Frederick hurt his stock?

John Sickels: Well it certainly doesn’t help. His mechanics fell apart last year but supposedly he put them back together in instructional league. Assuming that is true, and that there is no underlying health problem that we don’t know about, he has a good shot at rebounding. We will see. I lowered him from Grade B+ in the 2007 book to Grade C+ in 2008, though I still like his long-term potential, assuming good health.

Camden Chat: Could Hayden Penn be another John Maine? That is, a guy that is at one point regarded as the O's best pitching prospect, then kind of gets lost in the shuffle?

John Sickels: I can see that, yes, though the parallel is inexact as I think their styles of pitching are rather different and the things that have held Penn back are different than the things that held Maine back.

Camden Chat: How high is Chris Tillman's ceiling? Some are regarding him as the potential gem of the Bedard trade.

John Sickels: I really like what Tillman did last year. The Mariners took a huge and reckless gamble in promoting him to the California League so quickly last year, but after a rough start he adjusted and made the decision look good in retrospect. I still think it was a stupid decision, putting a 19 year old kid with 8 Class A starts under his belt in High Desert, but Tillman made it work and he deserves all the credit for that. If he stays healthy and maintains his command, he can be a number two starter.

Camden Chat: Who looks like the better prospect -- Kam Mickolio or Tony Butler?

John Sickels: Mickolio will get to the majors first, but Butler is the better long-term prospect. He was extremely impressive late in the season in the Midwest League, showing a good fastball and a terrific changeup. He’s also extremely bright and motivated to succeed. Like Tillman, if he stays healthy he should be a very impressive pitcher, granted “if he stays healthy” is always the question with these young guys.

Camden Chat: Thanks, John. Your time and knowledge is greatly appreciated.

John Sickels: Thanks! I appreciate the opportunity. 

Don't forget to visit Minor League Ball for daily prospect talk that is second to none.

Chris Tillman once had his picture taken with Cal Ripken, Jr., when he was an Aflac All-American back in his high school days. We present to you the evidence of this meeting between the former Oriole great and a potential future Oriole great.

The Bedard trade's effect is being felt throughout the system already. Down at Delmarva, you have big lefty Tony Butler. On the major league level, Adam Jones is getting great receptions at Camden Yards and George Sherrill is a nerve-wracking 1-for-1 in save opportunities. And at Bowie, Tillman and Kam Mickolio will be key pieces of another promising young pitching staff. Mickolio will work out of the pen.

I'm not saying all of these guys are going to pan out. Hell, maybe none of them do. But when's the last time you could say that the Orioles had legit prospects on the pitching staffs at AAA, AA, High-A and Low-A? Fans of other teams may take this for granted. I do not.

To get away from the prospects for a moment, the Orioles went out and got 35-year old Julio Manon back for the Bowie bullpen, which seems a strange move. But you do have to fill out the rosters with someone, and Manon probably knows who he is at this point -- a career minor leaguer. Plus, pitching effectively in the minors has never been an issue for him. So long as we don't see him in Baltimore again, who cares?

I also really like to look over the gaps in Manon's career. 1996 was a lost year. He didn't play in 2004 and 2005, and then the Orioles rescued him in '06. He dominated in 50 appearances at Ottawa and then didn't in 22 games for the Birds. Last year he pitched at AAA for Oakland and Cincinnati. Spending two seasons farming for the O's, A's and Reds would pretty awesome if this was the 1970s.

The ace of the staff, though, is not the 20-year old Tillman, who probably has the highest ceiling of all the Baysox. That distinction instead falls to 22-year old Chorye Spoone, who will start the opener. The 6'1", 215-pound righty is a native of Pasadena, MD, was the most improved prospect in the O's system in 2007. His walks were way down (5.58 to 3.97 per nine), his strikeouts were up (6.28 to 7.88 per nine), and he gave up less hits (8.23 to 6.39 per nine). And we're talking about a jump, too, as he went from Low-A Delmarva to High-A Frederick. He's ready for Bowie, and if all goes really well, he could be up at Norfolk by the summer's end.

The other starter to watch for is David Hernandez, another righty who, as has been said before, is in sort of a low-risk, high-reward position. He's a couple tweaks away from maybe being really good. Or he won't make them, and he won't be. If he doesn't, it's not a huge loss.

Among the hitters, the clear stud is Nolan Reimold, who just needs to stay healthy for the love of God. He's become a good outfielder, he can hit the hell out of the ball, and he actually has some plate discipline. With all respect to Luke Scott, Luke's just a placeholder. Reimold is the left fielder of the future, and a Reimold-Jones-Markakis outfield could anchor the Oriole lineup for years.

Joining him in the outfield is Kennard Jones, a former Indiana Hoosier and Beltsville, MD, native who got as far as AAA in the Padres system. He played at Frederick last year. He's got no power, decent plate discipline, speed, and no idea how to use it. He's the Sebastien Boucher of Bowie. Non-prospects Michael Rodriguez and Luis Montanez will also see time in the outfield.

First baseman Ryan Finan may be the jewel of the infield, which isn't saying a whole lot. Finan hit .284/.386/.432 at Frederick last year. A spike in power would improve his prospects a whole lot, but he's just not a power hitter. Even Mark Grace slugged .518 in the minors.

Shortstop Blake Davis was overmatched in 35 games with the Baysox last season (.209/.264/.270) but fared OK at Frederick (.291/.362/.409). Like Finan, he's a maybe, but a probably not. The Cal State Fullerton product's future may be as a utility guy if he can start hitting Double-A pitching.

And then there's Michael Garciaparra, a career .261/.355/.342 hitter in the minors. He's not his brother, to say the least.

Former (very former) Padres prospect Ben Davis will be the starting catcher. He's just another guy that didn't pan out. But he's in a place where he can be useful. The 31-year old Davis has 486 major league games under his belt, and could be very helpful in guiding Spoone, Tillman, Hernandez and the rest of the young pitchers. Think Crash Davis, but without the bat.

Like all the other levels of the O's system now, there's real young talent down at Bowie, and the chance to see some guys that are going to be good major league players.