On April 1, this happened:

1. Matt Wieters, C
2. Bill Rowell, 3B
3. Radhames Liz, RHP
4. Nolan Reimold, OF
5. Jake Arrieta, RHP
6. Chris Tillman, RHP
7. Garrett Olson, LHP
8. Chorye Spoone, RHP
9. Tony Butler, LHP
10. Hayden Penn, RHP
11. Tim Bascom, RHP
12. Troy Patton, LHP
13. Brandon Snyder, 1B
14. Brandon Erbe, RHP
15. David Hernandez, RHP
16. Pedro Beato, RHP
17. Scott Moore/Mike Costanzo, 3B
18. Matt Albers, RHP
19. Randor Bierd, RHP
20. Bob McCrory, RHP

It is now October 8. This will happen. Instead of going over these guys in that order and how their seasons went, I'm going to re-shuffle at the same time. And there's plenty of movement.

1. Matt Wieters, C (1)

This will no doubt sound very "after the fact," but I was very big on Nick Markakis. While looking at his stat lines, I thought, "Here's a guy that puts up real numbers. Here's a guy that can play." We had been treated to lots of flop prospects that never put up numbers, but we were told yearly about their "potential" and their "ceiling." No one really talked about Markakis' "ceiling" -- he actually played well instead.

Matt Wieters makes Nick Markakis (at similar stages) look like Keith Reed. The former Yellow Jacket entered his first season of professional baseball as maybe the most hyped player coming out of the 2007 draft, partially due to the fact that I think WE were all so excited to have a player of his caliber that we decided to make him out to be Mike Piazza, Mickey Cochrane, Johnny Bench and prime years Pudge Rodriguez all rolled into one.

In 229 ABs at Frederick, he hit .345/.448/.576 with 15 home runs. In 208 at-bats with Bowie, he topped that, hitting .365/.460/.625 with 12 dongs.

If Wieters starts off the year in Bowie or Norfolk in 2009, go see him if you have the chance, because you won't have many to see this superstar-in-the-making play in the sticks. He's coming. He's on his way. Frankly, there's no reason other than contract jive that he isn't the starting catcher for the Baltimore Orioles.

If they want to excite the fans about the future and get the skeptics to buy into the rebuilding (which they've heard before and was bungled so badly that I don't blame them), they need to have Wieters on the club. Simple as that. He's a player.

2. Chris Tillman, RHP (6)

Start the hype machine. This is our best pitching prospect. Thanks, Mariners!

Tillman turns 21...next April. That means that this guy just put on some damn good numbers in Double-A ball, and he can't even legally buy a drink until next April. In 135 innings, Tillman held opposing batters to a .227 average, went 11-4, and struck out 154. The Anaheim native was an Eastern League All-Star, and also represents something different from our pitching prospects, something that Wieters does, too: results. Actual, tangible results. Numbers you can point to as a reason to believe he'll be very good. He's probably not destined to be an ace, but a 2 or a 3? Absolutely. And as much as I try to stay away from blind optimism, given his age, I see no reason he can't become an ace. He's 20!

And because he's so young and good but no phenom, there's no reason to rush him up the chain. He'll be ready when he's ready.

3. Jake Arrieta, RHP (5)

Former Horned Frog Arrieta pitched 113 innings at Frederick, and went just 6-5.

Buuuut...in doing so, he posted a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .199 BAA, and was named to the Carolina League All-Star game, the Carolina League post-season All-Star team, and oh yeah, was named the Carolina League Pitcher of the Year. He also played in the Futures Game.

The league couldn't touch him, but did draw some walks. I loved the Arrieta draft choice when we made it, and it looks even better now. Here's another guy that can solidify a staff in the future, and is showing that ability to do so with RESULTS. I know I keep harping on that, but I don't feel the need to explain Arrieta's ceiling. You can actually see that he's good. It's not just smoke-blowing.

He DID tire late in the season, and finished 1-5 in his last 10 starts with a 4.39 ERA, but conditioning is something you learn, like throwing a good slider or hitting one. Unlike beanpole Tillman (6-5, 195), Arrieta already has the body that a scout would like (6-4, 225).

4. Brian Matusz, LHP (-)

Matusz very well might be so good that he could jump up to No. 2 on this list by the middle of 2009. He is currently in the Arizona Fall League, playing with the Surprirse Rafters, but has yet to pitch as best I can tell.

The San Diego University standout was taken fourth overall by the Orioles, and they paid a pretty penny to get him signed. But when you look at his final college season, you know why: 12-2, 1.71 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.09 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, and just four home runs allowed in 105 innings pitched.

He dominated college ball, and that means he has college shine on his left arm, much like Jake Arrieta has on his right arm. College players are generally better than high school players. That is a scientific fact. The Orioles ponying up the dough to sign Matusz and Wieters in back-to-back years is a GREAT sign from our front office. For years we were throwing money at the wall with guys like Adam Loewen, which turned out bad in every possible respect. Not only did Loewen stink, but he was hurt all the time, we gave him a terrible contract that rushed him into Major League duty, and now he's not even a pitcher anymore.

Put it this way: if Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta were all to pan out (not likely, but not unprecedented), then that's 3/5 of a rotation made out of real arms, not the junk we've been accepting as top prospect pitchers. These guys lay waste to what we've been fed for years.

5. Nolan Reimold, OF (4)

Reimold started very slow, but wound up on the Eastern League post-season All-Stars, hitting .284/.367/.501 with 25 homers and 84 RBI. He finally stayed healthy enough to play 139 games, too, which is a great thing. Right now, he's playing for the Surprise Rafters in the Arizona Fall League.

Reimold is a guy that has earned the chance to compete for a job next spring. Luke Scott is not getting any younger and isn't exactly great shakes to begin with, plus Millar should be gone, which would open up first base or DH. Huff could step in at first and Luke could do the majority of the DHing, with Reimold out in left, giving us a legit young outfield of Markakis, Jones and Reimold. Not bad.

I have no doubt that Reimold could hit in the Majors, at least putting up numbers similar to what Luke did this season. The only thing I still worry about is his ability to stay healthy.

6. Radhames Liz, RHP (3)

Two reasons Radhames Liz stays this high. First, it was his first taste of Major League Baseball, and sometimes guys get shelled. He went out there and did the best he could do. Command is the obvious issue. He has the stuff. I think he's more likely to find MLB success out of the bullpen, but that's not a bad place to be. A player's a player.

Second, the system takes a significant hit after the top five. A lot of guys bit the dust this year due to injury or plain old sucktitude, and Liz's ceiling (ooh!) remains higher than just about all of them.

7. Brandon Erbe, RHP (14)

In 2006, Baseball America ranked Brandon Erbe ninth in the O's system. In 2007, they had him up to No. 2, and 78th in baseball. In 2008, he was down to tenth following a disastrous season at Frederick (6.26 ERA, 119.1 IP).

He came back strong, and he's still only 21 in December (Erbe, in fact, is one of the unlucky few born on Christmas).

Erbe improved across the board in another go-'round with the Keys this year. His strikeouts were up (8.37 to 9.02 per nine), his walks down (4.68 to 2.99), hits allowed down (9.58 to 7.17), and his ERA dipped to 4.30 with a 1.13 WHIP, which was down .45 points. His ERA was only that high, actually, because he struggled with gopher balls: he allowed 21 in 150 innings.

Hope is rekindled...

8. David Hernandez, RHP (15)

Hernandez's first season in Bowie was a fine success, as he went 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA. The only concern is that he's still pretty much a fastball/slider guy, and his command is quite shaky, with 71 walks in 141 innings. On the plus side, he struck out 166, and was tough to hit (112 hits allowed). Might end up a bullpen guy, but could be a really good one, too.

9. Tony Butler, LHP (9)

Butler went on the Delmarva DL for good in June, after putting up a 4.42 ERA in 55 innings. What is very nice to see is a tremendously low walk rate, at 1.80 BB/9. His strikeout totals weren't amazing (7.20/9), but the control is the key. He's still a nice prospect as he doesn't turn 21 until November, but guys getting hurt this young is always a maroon flag if not one that is blood red.

10. Billy Rowell, 3B (2)

Before we get into why Billy Rowell slips a full eight spots and why you should probably burn your hopes and dreams, let's sum up his season with honesty very quickly.

Summary, Billy Rowell, 2008: Rowell got hurt early on and stayed out longer than expected, wound up playing just 111 games, and when he wasn't hurt, he sucked. Rowell hit .248/.315/.348 with seven home runs, not exactly befitting the ninth pick of the 2006 draft, and the man that was supposed to be our future at third or first base.

Outside of 42 games with Bluefield in 2006, Rowell hasn't hit for any power, racking up just 16 home runs the last two seasons, neither of which he played as much as you'd like (91 games in 2007, 111 this year). He was way below expectations at Delmarva, and way below expectations again this season with Frederick.

I keep him this high, honestly, only out of Amber-style blind faith. I want Rowell to turn it around in 2009 and get fast-tracked to the majors. One reason is that Melvin Mora can't stand over there forever, and we can't be relying on Melvin's second half sonic boom to carry over as he inches toward 40.

It all begs the question: is Rowell working hard or hardly working?! A-ha-ha-ha! Classic.

11. Troy Patton, LHP (12)

With the great bright spots at the top, Rowell's freefall and Patton moving up a spot despite not pitching really should explain the type of season the Orioles system had outside of a decent-looking draft. Troy Patton did not throw a single pitch as he was out with a labrum injury, and who knows if he'll return any good or not? But I have more faith that Troy Patton will contribute to the Major League team in a positive way than I do anyone below him.

Put that in your pipe and give it a think. Like I said, improvements in recent years or not, this system takes a nosedive after the top five.

12. Garrett Olson, LHP (7)

Not only did Garrett Olson stink up the joint something awful (9-10, 6.65/1.73, 62 BB in 132 IP) filling in for Adam Loewen this season, but he rubbed a lot of folks the wrong way, too, seeming to be totally indifferent to his struggles. Asked if his bad season got to him, Olson said, "Not really," or whatever.

Maybe that's a good thing, though. Maybe he figures you take your lumps and you figure out how to fix it. Maybe he spends the entire off-season working on fixing it. Maybe he spends it in Aruba punching judges and we can really start to hate him.

I'm not in Garrett Olson's mind. I don't know what he's thinking. I do know his stock took a serious hit this year, because struggling is one thing, but he got his ass kicked.

13. Brandon Snyder, 1B (13)

2005 first-round pick Brandon Snyder remains a personal favorite of mine. John Sickels regarded Snyder, then a catcher, as the best high school hitter in that draft, so I was thrilled that the Orioles signed him. Imagine if Snyder, Rowell, Wieters and Matusz had all panned out as expected. Woof! Then again, that's why I think talking about securing draft position in a losing year is pointless. You get more Snyders and Rowells, guys facing uphill battles very quickly, than you do guys like Wieters that come in and kill everything thrown at them.

Snyder had a solid year for Frederick, hitting .315/.358/.490 with 13 homers and 80 RBI (435 AB), but his power is going to have to improve for him to be a serious idea for first base. That or he needs to figure out how to have the plate discipline of Mark Grace, which is not looking likely with his 83-to-29 K-to-BB totals.

14. Bradley Bergesen, RHP (-)

Sickels had Bergesen ranked 17th in January. He just missed my cut in April. He had a really nice year at Bowie, going 15-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, and he walked next to no one in 148 innings, just 1.64 per nine. The catch? He only struck out 4.38 per nine. Not good, but results should speak, I think, and he made things happen this year.

15. Chorye Spoone, RHP (8)

The Prospect Lord giveth (mass improvements all around in 2007), and He taketh away (mass collapse and only nine starts in 2008). Spoone was back to posting the junk numbers he did in 2005-06 before going down for the year, which is a double negative. His 2007 might be a career year.

16. Xavier Avery, OF (-)

A two-sport superstar in Georgia high school athletics, Avery was a four-star running back with a verbal commitment to the University of Georgia. Instead, he opted to sign with the Orioles, who took him in the second round of this year's draft.

Still just 18, Avery is very, very raw, as you'd probably expect, but he's a ceiling guy, and his ceiling is pretty good. He ran a 6.4 60-yard dash and has been clocked at 3.95 seconds from home plate to first base. He has what is called "plus-plus" speed, and his natural power is good, too. Obviously it'll take a while for these things to come into play, so don't look for him moving up through the system too quickly.

There's a good chance Avery will flat-out stink and it'll turn out he should've stuck with football. But for the Orioles to give a guy money when the University of Georgia is ready to have him come play football, that says there's something special that somebody sees. That often means zilch at the end of the day, but I hope he made the right choice. His arm as described as "suited for left field," which means his arm sucks. Ever see a running back throw? Not pretty.

17. Hayden Penn, RHP (10)

Penn stays here only because there aren't that many players to put on the list at this point, and because he'd probably do no worse, realistically, than Liz or Olson did this season. Of course, the Orioles thought enough of those guys to give them the shots, and Penn didn't see one inning of action in Baltimore this year.

Anyone still hanging on to 2004-05 when Penn's name meant something, give it up. He's just another AAA pitcher with AAA upside (4.79/1.45 in 100 IP at Norfolk).

18. L.J. Hoes, 2B (-)

I like your name, young man! Hoes was signed to play ball at the University of North Carolina, and opted to sign with Baltimore instead. He's described in every article you can find on him as a hell of a nice guy, a hard worker, a team player, blah blah blah. He played his high school ball with highly-successful St. John's (Washington, D.C.), as an outfielder and starting pitcher. The Orioles see him as a second baseman. In brief time with the Gulf Coast Orioles this year, Hoes was was a walk mo-sheen, putting up a .416 OBP and going 10-for-10 in steal attempts. He hit .308 and slugged .390.

19. Jason Berken, RHP (-)

Again, it's just about results. 25-year old Berken went 12-4 (3.58/1.23) with Bowie this season. It's worth something, but he's not a real prospect.

20. Bob McCrory (20)

As always: has the stuff, needs to throw strikes. He was horrible in a brief stint with the Orioles this year. If he can learn some f-ing command, he could be a valuable f-ing addition to the f-ing bullpen. C'mon, Bob.

To the dearly departed...

First off was Tim Bascom (RHP, 11), a guy I liked a lot because of his story, but who really stunk up the joint in Frederick this season, with a 5.78 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 95 innings. Just after him was Pedro Beato (RHP, 16), a guy John Sickels had at #10 in January but that I simply didn't fully buy. Beato, 21, had a 5.85/1.57 line with 4.73 K/9 in 97 innings with the Keys, going 4-10. As Sickels put it in August, the two of them had a contest to see who could suck more. In the end, a pretty dead even race, and both are toast until something dramatic happens.

Scott Moore (IF, T-17) and Mike Costanzo (3B, T-17) both had awful years at Norfolk. Moore hit .247/.321/.408 with seven home runs, while Costanzo hit .261/.333/.395 with his usual massive amount of strikeouts, and just 11 home runs, a 16-homer drop from 2007 at AAA with the Phillies. Both are 24, and neither are really prospects, and really, neither ever really were. They were C-grade guys who look like they've probably hit the wall.

Matt Albers (RHP, 18) is off because he's hurt. I liked what we saw of him for the most part this year.

Randor Bierd (RHP, 19) just isn't anything special. His upside is less than that of McCrory, which was the tiebreaker. Both could be fine spare parts in the bullpen.

Note: Olson and Liz may not meet your guidelines for "prospect" at this point, given how much they pitched in Baltimore this year, but I think this should be a loose interpretation. Both guys were forced into their roles -- there was literally no one else available with Loewen out and Trachsel thankfully sent on down the river. There is hardly any guarantee that either man is with the Birds in 2009.

Other guys, notes, and statistical crapola...

If you're wondering where Oscar Salazar is, the answer is he's 30 years old.

Kam Mickolio is still a fun idea at 6-foot-9, but tall doesn't get me all aflutter the way it does some people. Years of Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen will do that to you. He struggled with Bowie and struggled in September with the O's. He's still very raw considering he's from Montana. (That's not a knock on Montana, it's just he never played much baseball.)

21-year old Delmarva second baseman and whiny, self-important singer/songwriter Ryan Adams hit .308/.367/.462 with 11 homers this season. Not a bad line. He also made 52 errors.

The rest of the O's 2008 draft class: OF Kyle Hudson (University of Illinois), SS Greg Miclat (University of Virginia), and LHP Rick Zagone (University of Missouri). Zagone tore the hell out of the New York-Penn league in 65 innings, going 7-1 with a .289 ERA and 10.88 strikeouts per nine against 1.93 walks per nine.

Ex-Ohio State Buckeye (puke) Matt Angle will have fans in every minor league city he plays, I bet. Born in Columbus (puke), Angle hit .287/.385/.379 for Delmarva. He was also 22 years old. He has zero power, and though he runs well (37-for-48 steal attempts), his Major League future probably rests in the role of National League guy that pinch-hits for the pitcher, tries to draw a walk, and then maybe makes something happen on the basepaths.

No, I will not rank Lou Montanez. He is 27 in December and remains a massive bust. He has had exactly one season of pro ball that has met or surpassed expectations. It was this one.

23-year old pitcher Mick Mattaliano threw 43 innings of relief for Delmarva, putting up a 1.24 ERA. He went to Norfolk for seven innings and got shelled. Whoops!

My personal favorite player in the world, Cole McCurry, stunk with Delmarva (6.51 ERA, 56 IP) but tore up Aberdeen (2.76 ERA, 81 IP).

Kennard hit just .257/.323/.350 in 140 AB.

Carl Pavano improved to 2-0 against the O's this season and 4-1 overall, pitching five innings of solid ball before handing it over to the bullpen, a group that shut us down for the final four innings and gave the Yankees a 3-2 win in the Bronx.

The O's jumped out to a 2-0 lead, but Nick Markakis was thrown out at home in the first inning on an Aubrey Huff RBI single (scoring Roberts). The second run came on a Lou Montanez sac fly in the second, scoring Adam Jones.

The winning Yankee run came in the fifth, when Johnny Damon scored on a wild pitch. Radhames Liz actually did pretty well today, though, going 6 1/3, allowing three earned. Not a bad game at all. Could've been good enough to win. Wasn't.

Two more at Yankee Stadium, then a seven-game homestand to end it (TB, TBx2, TB, TOR, TOR, TOR). Woopty doo, Orioles fans. Goin' down the only road I've ever known!

The Orioles are 63-70 on this off day, 18 games out of first place. In the last ten, they're the only AL East squad with a losing record, going 3-7. The rest of the division has won six of the last ten.

The Orioles are 50-45 in night games this season, and just 13-25 in day games. Good thing we don't have a Cubs schedule.

The Orioles are 20-23 in one-run games, a massive improvement on the 13-31 mark from 2007, which was by far the worst in Major League Baseball.

Jeremy Guthrie is tied for sixth in the American League in ERA (3.28). The top ten, with W-L records thrown in, looks like this:

Cliff Lee, CLE (2.43, 19-2) ... Justin Duchscherer, OAK (2.54, 10-8) ... Roy Halladay, TOR (2.69, 16-9) ... John Lackey, LAA (2.95, 11-2) ... Armando Galarraga, DET (3.20, 12-4) ... Guthrie, BAL (3.28, 10-10) ... Felix Hernandez, SEA (3.28, 8-8) ... John Danks, CWS (3.30, 10-7) ... Ervin Santana, LAA (3.41, 13-5) ... Mike Mussina, NYY (3.45, 16-7)

Looking over those records and ERAs, I think you have to really be somewhat in awe of how good Cliff Lee has been. Halladay has thrown more innings, but Lee has been so dominant that he's managed to go 19-2 on a team that is two games under .500. He's credited for nearly one-third of their wins.

The O's have scored 5.13 runs per game, good for fourth in the American League behind Texas (5.54), Boston (5.21) and Chicago (5.17). At Camden Yards, the Birds score 5.31 runs per game, and on the road, 4.96. Last year, the team scored 4.67 runs per game, ninth in the AL.

The O's have allowed 5.14 runs per game, which is second-worst in the American League, ahead of only the deplorable Rangers (a staggering 5.99). The O's team ERA is 4.88. Last year, the Birds allowed 5.36 RPG with a 5.17 ERA, so it is an improvement. Not much one of, but an improvement.

In these respects, I think the "improvement" of this year's team is to some degree a smoke-and-mirrors act. The pitching is still God awful and that desperately needs to be rectified. No matter how many runs you score, it's tough to win when you routinely give up just as many. We know this, right? Pitching has to be considered priority No. 1 as far as any potential offseason moves go. Guthrie can't do this all by himself.

Frankly, this year's O's squad -- the competitive! team -- has had one of the worst starting rotations we've seen yet. Outside of Guthrie, they are all terrible. Look at these numbers:

And yes, this means that Daniel Cabrera still sucks, and that he's just as bad as he was last season. This "useful back-end starter" thing is not really very true. He's really, really bad.

This one truly warms my heart: Nick Markakis is fourth in the American League in on-base percentage at .403. He trails Milton Bradley (.446), Joe Mauer (.410) and J.D. Drew (.408). Markakis is fourth in the league in walks (84).

Aubrey Huff is sixth in the American League in slugging percentage (.566), fifth in OPS (.932), third in doubles (40), first in total bases (286), tied for fourth in home runs (29), sixth in RBI (94), fifth in adjusted OPS+ (143), third in runs created (107), fifth in adjusted batting runs (31), fifth in batting wins (2.9), first in extra-base hits (71), seventh in offensive win percentage (.701), and has a VORP of 53.9, by far the best on the team.

In other words, Aubrey Huff is the balls.

Brian Roberts leads the league in doubles (46), is third in triples (8), tied for tenth in walks (68), fifth in stolen bases (33), and third in times on base (226).

You know who's first in times on base? Markakis, with 240.

Melvin Mora has 97 RBI, and is having his best season since 2004, which is almost entirely thanks to a hot July and an unimaginably scorching August. Let's not forget the Melvin Mora of the first half, though. He hit .232/.300/.385. He was freaking awful. Awful, awful, awful, terrible, bad. He was so bad that they should have given up on the old fart and tried strugglin' Mike Costanzo or Scott Moore or my cat or anyone. He was hideous.

But in July he hit .311/.373/.533 with five homers, and this month he's been postively Herculean, going ape bananas at .427/.463/.781 with eight home runs.

More on Melvin: in seven games against the Tigers, Mora has hit .571/.618/1.393 with six home runs and 17 RBI. In 12 games against the Red Sox, Melvin has decided to take a nap to the tune of .111/.222/.200 with two extra-base hits (a homer and a double).

Folks that say Jay Payton has done a super duper job this season live on a different planet than I do. I respect his capability to fill in in center field with AJ out and I haven't once been truly annoyed by the dude this year as I was last year, but he's getting a lot of compliments like he's been some sort of genuine positive to the team. There are a lot of fourth/fifth outfielders that could hit .256/.300/.363. He's just as bad as he was last year, but there's been a lot less of him.

I said around the All-Star break that I thought Ramon Hernandez would bounce back in the second half because he'd been incredibly unlucky in the first half. This was no grand statement or amazing guesstimate, but he's done pretty well, hitting .288/.344/.492 since the break. I'd take those numbers out of a catcher any day. Of course I'd also prefer one that wasn't as lazy as he is behind the plate. He has also regressed back to stinking in August (.253/.292/.361).

Left-handed batters are hitting .324 with seven homers against Jamie Walker. Ummm, not cool, bro. I still love Jamie Jam Walker, but he's had a terrible season.

Since coming to the Orioles, Juan Castro has hit .214/.248/.276. He's 36 years old. He's never been any good at all. And this is the guy that wins shortstop for the season. Unbelievable.

Luke Scott has been our version of Trot Nixon, and will probably have roughly the same shelf life. He really needs a lefty-mashing platoon partner (.762 OPS v. LHP is not horrible, though). In this regard, I'll give Payton a little credit: he has bopped lefties at a .551 slugging clip. All six of his homers have come against left-handed pitchers.

Lou Montanez has been fun to watch. No numbers.

This really should be the last season for Kevin Millar as an Oriole. I say that with respect for the guy, too. It's just that his OPS has dropped every season as an Oriole -- .811 in 2006, .785 in 2007, .755 this season. He's already pretty well below standard for a first baseman, and pushing him any further as a starter would probably be a really bad idea. He does get credit for making the team fun again, and giving them some much-needed personality. And he hasn't killed us as a player or anything. But any further down the ladder, and he will. He's not getting younger.

Before I really start here, I gotta tell ya: Y'all are hiiiiiigh.

Actually, that's pretty much my whole point. You all being high.

Y'all that are theorizin' and speculatin' on the future of Chris Waters in the Baltimore Orioles rotation are hiiiiiiigh.

Y'all that read anything into Lou Montanez hitting a home run in his first major league at-bat are hiiiiiigh.

Chris Waters is 28 years old and just reached the major leagues. He has a career 4.09 ERA in the minors. Chris Waters is not Jeremy Guthrie. There's really no comparison. No one has ever thought Waters was as good as they thought Guthrie was. Waters isn't a stalled prospect that is rising like a phoenix; he's a scrap heap minor league veteran arm. He's only up because Hayden Penn got hit with a damn baseball bat the other day. That's how much the Orioles brass REALLY thought of him -- Hayden Penn and his near-5 ERA at Norfolk were the first choice, not Waters, and I don't want to hear about how highly recommended Waters came from the minor league staff. If the minor league staff is highly recommending someone with Waters' resume, we're boned.

I'm not trying to hate on the dude's success. He had a fabulous game. I wish they would have kept him in for the ninth. There's a very real chance that he won't ever throw that kind of game again.

Montanez is getting spun as a positive because he hit some home runs at Bowie this year. He should have, considering how old he is for the level and the fact that the Cubs once took him third overall in the draft. He is a total and complete flameout of a former prospect. Here's his MLB.com biography:

Graduated from Coral Park HS in Miami in 2000...The Chicago Cubs selected him in the first round of the 2000 First Year Player Draft with the 3rd overall pick...Was signed by Cubs scout Mike Soper...Luis's father, also named Luis Montanez, played professionally in Puerto Rico.

Woo! Mike Soper! 2000 draft! High school! Dad!

They have pretty much highlighted his career achievements.

I'm not, like, disgusted or anything. God love 'em if they both shock the world and turn into real contributors on the major league level. But these aren't prospects that delivered in their first games. These are ... bums. I don't want to be mean, really, but they're bums. They're guys that wound up in our system because other teams didn't want them, they've never progressed the way they should have/were expected to, and they are really just minor league filler.

I couldn't get excited about David Newhan, either. I couldn't get excited about Tike Redman. Travis Driskill is springing to mind. That's the same type of player we're talking about.

And doesn't it strike you odd that these things happened on back-to-back days? Doesn't that just make you think, "Waters was awesome, but now freaking Lou Montanez is hitting a home run in his first major league at-bat. This is a rib, right?"

Luis Hernandez hit .290 last year.

In almost every single case in the history of the organized, civilized world, results at the major league level can be seen coming from the minor league level, and not just when the guys are beating up on players they're simply more advanced than, either. Waters and/or Montanez succeeding in the majors would be a miracle.

I'm rooting for them. I really am. But I'm going to avoid the hysteria about it all, because we're looking less at this:

than we are at this:

Jeff Nettles is slugging the ball pretty well right now. Let's be honest about why someone who's 29 years old and spent five years outside of real baseball is playing on anyone's Double-A team. First off, he's Graig Nettles' son. Which also makes him Jim Nettles' nephew! And he's an in-law of Mike Sweeney, since Jim's daughter married Sweeney. He's not a good player. He's just not. He never has been. He was in indy league baseball for about five years before the Royals picked him up to play at Wichita (AA) last season. The O's grabbed him because they have no hitting prospects. He was once a 53rd round pick of the Blue Jays, but went pro when taken in the 47th round for the big money by the Yankees, who were probably just doing Graig a solid. Not a nice bunch of stuff to say, I don't suppose, but it's not my job to make excuses for why Jeff Nettles is the starting third baseman for the Bowie Baysox.

Luis Montanez is 26 and a massive flameout with whom you may already be familiar if you're a Cubs fan. He was taken third overall in the 2000 draft and never did anything. He never even had an encouraging season, really. I mean, I suppose you could say him tearing up the Midwest League was pretty neat, if you don't take into account that he was 23 by then and was expected to already be in the majors. It's been a tough career for him. Sometimes, I wonder what it is that makes a guy like Montanez or Nettles keep soldiering on. Love of the game is one thing, but jeez. It reminds me of the line from Rudy, when one of the assistant coaches bluntly addresses the walk -on hopefuls: "Now, if any of you has any dreams of one day running out of that tunnel with your gold helmet shining in the sun, you'd best leave them right here."

Reimold is starting to hit a little, thank the heavens. He remains our second-best position prospect. Expect nothing from the rest of these guys. Like the Tides, the Baysox are struggling with hitting, although it's nice to see Jonathan Tucker getting on base the way he is. I like him for no particular reason. Just do.

Tillman is still a diaper dandy, more or less, so his control issues are (1) not a big deal and (2) pretty much totally expected. Spoone's are a little more troubling.

But the other three rotation regulars have been chewing up the Eastern League. Waters should be -- he's 27 years old. Berken's 25 and is sort of at "now or never" himself. Hernandez was regarded by Sickels and Baseball Prospectus as a sleeper dude, so him I'm actually getting a little excited about, despite the iffy WHIP. I mean look at that K-rate -- 13.32 K/9. That's nasty. Even if he never masters a whole repertoire, that kind of power arm could make him millions as a reliever.

But if it's ratios you want to focus on, jeez, take a gander at Berken's absurd K-to-BB. 15-to-1? The Baysox bullpen deserves just as much flak for the team's struggles as the flaccid lineup does, too. Mickolio, Miller and Romero are doing fine, but the rest of them are gasoline men.

Durham @ Norfolk, Game 1, PPD/Rain
Durham @ Norfolk, Game 2, PPD/Rain

These teams are going to have FUN later this season.

Connecticut 1, Bowie 0

David Hernandez dominated (6.1 IP, 8 K, 2 H, 2 BB), and then Ryan Keefer and Rommie Lewis, Jr., combined to blow the game in the ninth. Keefer now has an 11.05 ERA and is 0-3. Here's the recap of the game's lone score:

The Baysox got hits from Nolan Reimold (!), Luis Montanez and Jeff Nettles, and that's it. All singles. Reimold also walked. And that's it.

Wilmington @ Frederick, PPD/Rain

Wieters Watch! He didn't enjoy the rain. (Note: This is not a substantiated report.)

They'll play two today starting at 6.

Lake County @ Delmarva, PPD/Rain

They'll play two today starting at 6...:05! Switchin' it up, Shorebirds!

An exciting day in Orioles minor league baseball, to be sure. One run was scored.

Norfolk 10, Louisville 3

Big shots carried the Tides to a blowout win, as Luis Terrero hit a grand slam and Oscar Salazar launched a three-run shot to account for 70% of the Norfolk runs. The kicker? Terrero's salami came in the top of the ninth inning, a frame in which Norfolk dropped the seven runs that were the difference in the outcome.

Everyone in the starting lineup besides Scott Moore had a hit, and everyone got on base either via base hit or the free pass. Terrero, Eider Torres, Chris Heintz, Chris Roberson and Adam Stern had two hits each.

Hayden Penn turned in another good performance, going seven innings and striking out nine Bats batsmen, allowing three runs (two earned) on four hits and two walks. Lance Cormier got the win in relief.

Bowie 5, Akron 4 (10 innings)

More late-game heroics in the O's system came from Bowie, as Luis Montanez hit a walk-off solo shot in the bottom of the tenth inning to give the Basox the win over the Aeros.

Struggling Nolan Reimold went 1-for-4 with a strikeout after being dropped to sixth in the order. Montanez was 2-for-5, and third baseman Jeff Nettles homered in his third straight game, a solo shot in the second inning. It was his fifth long ball on the young season. Jonathan Tucker was 2-for-2 with two walks.

On the hill, Chris Tillman struggled with his command, going four and a third innings and walking five while fanning four. He gave up two runs on two hits. Julio Manon blew a save when Akron tied it at four in the top of the ninth, but picked up the win.

Winston-Salem 9, Frederick 4

Wieters Watch! 1-for-5 with an RBI.

Rowell Watch! He still hasn't returned from injury after "tweaking" his ankle a couple weeks ago.

The Keys scattered ten hits, all singles, and made three errors in the loss. Everyone in the starting lineup did get a hit, so I hope they all got a Coke and a piece of pizza for trying hard. Chris Vinyard, with two hits, maybe gets a breadstick, too.

Lakewood 5, Delmarva 4

After tying it at four in the top of the eighth inning, Jeff Moore gave up a solo homer to Michael Durant to lead off the Lakewood half of the frame, and that wound up being all she wrote.

Tony Butler's line: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. The Shorebirds committed four errors.

At the plate, Matt Angle, Joseph Nowicki and Tyler Henson had two hits each, including Nowick and Henson homers.

Louisville 6, Norfolk 4

Scott Moore started at second base and went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, leaving him hitting .133 with seven whiffs in 15 at-bats since being sent down to Norfolk. He's always going to be a high-strikeout hitter who is prone to bouts of streakiness. He's picking a bad time to slump, I'd suppose, although I'd take the Norfolk version of Moore over Brandon Fahey anyway.

Veteran catcher Chris Heintz was 4-for-4 on the day, but didn't score a run. Radhames Liz got beaten up a little, going five innings with eight hits allowed, giving up six runs (five earned) and two homers. He walked one and struck out five. Lance Cormier and Bob McCrory both had scoreless relief appearances.

Erie 11, Bowie 10

Well, the Bowie bats have come around. But they lost this slugfest on a Max St. Pierre single in the bottom of the ninth with one out, which scored Dusty Ryan from second base. The hit was to left field.

First, the pitching. Starter David Hernandez went four innings, allowing eight runs (four earned) on six hits and three walks. Hernandez struck out eight. Gerardo Casadiego gave up just one run in three innings, but Jim Miller blew the game and took the loss for the Baysox, giving up two in one and a third.

At the plate, Jeff Nettles was 3-for-5 with four runs scored, and hit two solo homers, including one in the top of the ninth that tied the game at 10. Luis Montanez was 2-for-5 with a two-run homer, and had three RBIs on the day. Kennard Jones also had a three-steak day.

And even though the Baysox rapped out 11 hits and scored ten runs, Nolan Reimold continues to flounder. He was 1-for-5 with an RBI triple. He's hitting .180/.259/.280 so far.

Mike Rodriguez and Ben Davis both had two hits.

Salem 13, Frederick 6

The Keys winning streak ended at four, and Brandon Erbe got wailed on out there. But first...

Wieters Watch! He was 0-for-3 with a strikeout. Start the panic!

Erbe went five and a third, and Salem got nine hits and seven runs (six earned) off of him. He allowed three home runs, walked one, and struck out five. Erbe started his day much like Adam Loewen, giving up a double, a single, and then a three run homer. Three batters, three Salem runs. Mark Ori hit two homers off of Erbe.

Frederick had a 4-3 lead after two, but it disappeared pretty fast. Leading 7-4, Salem piled on six runs in the top of the seventh, just murdering Kyle Schmidt. None of the runs were earned, apparently. Hey, whatever.

Brandon Tripp hit a homer for the Keys.

Delmarva 10, Hagerstown 1

Matt Angle was 3-for-6 and David Cash was 4-for-6, making the Shorebirds' 1-2 hitters a pretty deadly punch on the day. Cash had a three-run homer and four RBIs total.

Tyler Henson and Joseph Nowicki had two hits apiece, and Ryan Adams was 4-for-5.

Zach Britton and Cliff Flagello teamed up to dominate Hagerstown. Britton went five and a third and gave up a run on six hits with two strikeouts and a walk. Flagello pitched the other three and two-thirds, striking out seven and walking two, allowing only two hits.

RECORDS

Norfolk 5-9

Bowie 5-8

Frederick 8-4

Delmarva 7-6

Indianapolis 3, Norfolk 2

Garrett Olson had another fine start, going 5 1/3 with six strikeouts and one walk, allowing two runs on five hits. Andy Mitchell gave up a run in the seventh, and it turned out to be the deciding score in the game.

Eider Torres was 3-for-4 with two RBIs, Adam Stern had two hits. Chris Roberson and Sebastien Boucher both walked two times.

Bowie 10, Erie 3

Wham! The Baysox bats have come alive. Bowie was up 1-0 entering the sixth, then scored twice that inning, three runs in the eighth, and then four more in the ninth. Erie didn't get on the board until the bottom of the ninth.

Outfielder Luis Montanez was 3-for-4 with two homers and three RBIs, and Jeff Nettles also went yard. Mike Rodriguez, Ben Davis, Jonathan Tucker and Blake Davis all had two hits. The Baysox had 13 hits on the night as a team.

And despite all that, Nolan Reimold remained ice cold, going 0-for-5 with a strikeout. He's now hitting .143. Not a good start to the year.

All three Seawolves runs were given up Ryan Keefer. Chris Waters got the win with 5 2/3 shutout innings in the start.

Frederick 5, Salem 4

Wieters Watch! He got the day off.

Chris Amador was 3-for-4 and Daniel Figueroa was 2-for-3 with two runs scored. Jake Arrieta went 5 2/3 and struck out seven, walking three and allowing one unearned run on two hits. Wilfredo Perez allowed three runs in 2 1/3 innings of relief, making the game a lot tighter than it needed to be. Hey, it happens.

Delmarva 7, Hagerstown 6

Four runs in the bottom of the ninth gave the Shorebirds this big-time come-from-behind win. Here's the recap from MiLB.com:

Pitcher Change: Clint Everts replaces Kyle Gunderson.

Joseph Mahoney singles on a line drive to left fielder Aaron Seuss.

Tyler Henson singles on a line drive to center fielder Stephen Englund. Joseph Mahoney to 2nd.

With Matthew Tucker batting, wild pitch by Clint Everts, Joseph Mahoney to 3rd. Tyler Henson to 2nd.

Matthew Tucker walks.

Kieron Pope reaches on force attempt, throwing error by third baseman Steven Souza. Joseph Mahoney scores. Tyler Henson to 3rd. Matthew Tucker to 2nd.

Wally Crancer pops out to third baseman Steven Souza in foul territory.

Pedro Florimon Jr. singles on a fly ball to center fielder Stephen Englund. Tyler Henson scores. Matthew Tucker scores. Kieron Pope to 2nd.

Matthew Angle doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Michael Burgess. Kieron Pope scores. Pedro Florimon Jr. to 3rd.

Chris Tillman once had his picture taken with Cal Ripken, Jr., when he was an Aflac All-American back in his high school days. We present to you the evidence of this meeting between the former Oriole great and a potential future Oriole great.

The Bedard trade's effect is being felt throughout the system already. Down at Delmarva, you have big lefty Tony Butler. On the major league level, Adam Jones is getting great receptions at Camden Yards and George Sherrill is a nerve-wracking 1-for-1 in save opportunities. And at Bowie, Tillman and Kam Mickolio will be key pieces of another promising young pitching staff. Mickolio will work out of the pen.

I'm not saying all of these guys are going to pan out. Hell, maybe none of them do. But when's the last time you could say that the Orioles had legit prospects on the pitching staffs at AAA, AA, High-A and Low-A? Fans of other teams may take this for granted. I do not.

To get away from the prospects for a moment, the Orioles went out and got 35-year old Julio Manon back for the Bowie bullpen, which seems a strange move. But you do have to fill out the rosters with someone, and Manon probably knows who he is at this point -- a career minor leaguer. Plus, pitching effectively in the minors has never been an issue for him. So long as we don't see him in Baltimore again, who cares?

I also really like to look over the gaps in Manon's career. 1996 was a lost year. He didn't play in 2004 and 2005, and then the Orioles rescued him in '06. He dominated in 50 appearances at Ottawa and then didn't in 22 games for the Birds. Last year he pitched at AAA for Oakland and Cincinnati. Spending two seasons farming for the O's, A's and Reds would pretty awesome if this was the 1970s.

The ace of the staff, though, is not the 20-year old Tillman, who probably has the highest ceiling of all the Baysox. That distinction instead falls to 22-year old Chorye Spoone, who will start the opener. The 6'1", 215-pound righty is a native of Pasadena, MD, was the most improved prospect in the O's system in 2007. His walks were way down (5.58 to 3.97 per nine), his strikeouts were up (6.28 to 7.88 per nine), and he gave up less hits (8.23 to 6.39 per nine). And we're talking about a jump, too, as he went from Low-A Delmarva to High-A Frederick. He's ready for Bowie, and if all goes really well, he could be up at Norfolk by the summer's end.

The other starter to watch for is David Hernandez, another righty who, as has been said before, is in sort of a low-risk, high-reward position. He's a couple tweaks away from maybe being really good. Or he won't make them, and he won't be. If he doesn't, it's not a huge loss.

Among the hitters, the clear stud is Nolan Reimold, who just needs to stay healthy for the love of God. He's become a good outfielder, he can hit the hell out of the ball, and he actually has some plate discipline. With all respect to Luke Scott, Luke's just a placeholder. Reimold is the left fielder of the future, and a Reimold-Jones-Markakis outfield could anchor the Oriole lineup for years.

Joining him in the outfield is Kennard Jones, a former Indiana Hoosier and Beltsville, MD, native who got as far as AAA in the Padres system. He played at Frederick last year. He's got no power, decent plate discipline, speed, and no idea how to use it. He's the Sebastien Boucher of Bowie. Non-prospects Michael Rodriguez and Luis Montanez will also see time in the outfield.

First baseman Ryan Finan may be the jewel of the infield, which isn't saying a whole lot. Finan hit .284/.386/.432 at Frederick last year. A spike in power would improve his prospects a whole lot, but he's just not a power hitter. Even Mark Grace slugged .518 in the minors.

Shortstop Blake Davis was overmatched in 35 games with the Baysox last season (.209/.264/.270) but fared OK at Frederick (.291/.362/.409). Like Finan, he's a maybe, but a probably not. The Cal State Fullerton product's future may be as a utility guy if he can start hitting Double-A pitching.

And then there's Michael Garciaparra, a career .261/.355/.342 hitter in the minors. He's not his brother, to say the least.

Former (very former) Padres prospect Ben Davis will be the starting catcher. He's just another guy that didn't pan out. But he's in a place where he can be useful. The 31-year old Davis has 486 major league games under his belt, and could be very helpful in guiding Spoone, Tillman, Hernandez and the rest of the young pitchers. Think Crash Davis, but without the bat.

Like all the other levels of the O's system now, there's real young talent down at Bowie, and the chance to see some guys that are going to be good major league players.