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Orioles 10, Blue Jays 6: The Orioles can ruin a rookie's debut, too

2013-05-25T03:03:08Z

Blue Jays starter Sean Nolin followed in the footsteps of Kevin Gausman in this way: one day later, he, too, made his major league debut after jumping up from AA for a start. Nolin had some nice enough minor league numbers. They did not matter. The Orioles ruined his debut much as the Blue Jays ruined Gausman's last night, piling up runs en route to a 10-6 victory.

The game was full of offense from the top of the first inning, culminating in a total of 33 hits by both teams. Nick Markakis and Manny Machado led off the game with singles, followed by an Earl Weaver Special from J.J. Hardy, his ninth home run of the season. Nolin found himself facing a 3-0 deficit before he had ever even recorded an out in the big leagues. He'd get out of the inning with no further damage done, but an ERA of 27.00 after one MLB inning is plenty enough damage.

They did not let up in the second inning, either. The first four batters all reached base, with Markakis bringing up the rear and clearing the bases with a double. Machado then flew out, but that was the end of the night for Nolin, who would throw only 35 pitches. He was not fooling anyone. He was relieved by Ramon Ortiz, who had made several spot starts himself. Ortiz fared little better, with the Orioles scoring three more runs off of him in the top of the third inning on a pair of home runs, one by Chris Davis (his major league-leading 16th) and one by Danny Valencia (first of the season).

Davis went 3-for-4 on the night, coming only a triple short of the cycle. He's now the MLB leader in slugging percentage and with a slash line of .337/.426/.723, he trails only Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers in OPS.

Chris Tillman brought a streak of six straight quality starts into the game. He was spotted a 3-0 lead before he ever threw a pitch. He went 3-0 on Melky Cabrera to start off his game, then gave up a solo home run. Jose Bautista hit a single, and it looked like it might be one of those nights. However, Tillman then got angry, dialing up pitches that read 94 and 95 mph on the same gun that clocked Gausman at 99 last night. Did you even know Tillman could throw that fast? It's like he saw Gausman last night and decided velocity is the future. He closed out the inning with two strikeouts.

Did you think that Tillman would settle down after that shaky first inning? Why would you think a silly thing like that? Brett Lawrie opened up the second inning with yet another solo home run. Colby Rasmus followed with a double, scoring on a single by Emilio Bonifacio before an out was recorded in the inning. Bonifacio committed a cardinal sin with Tillman having shaky command: he ran on Matt Wieters. The results were predictable. Wieters has now thrown out 53% of runners on the season. That is superhuman.

Tillman would give up no more runs, but he took so many pitches to get through five innings that he had to leave at that time, snapping his quality start streak. 5 IP, 3 ER is not a great day at the office, especially when you consider that he scattered ten hits and gave up two home runs, and needing more innings from the bullpen is not good. However, it was enough to get Tillman the win tonight thanks to a potent Orioles offense that feasted on a couple of weak Blue Jays pitchers. He left with a 9-3 lead.

Brian Matusz came on for the sixth and got two quick outs before falling apart. He'd give up a walk and two hits in 0.2 IP, during which time two runs scored. Tommy Hunter closed the door on that inning and pitched the seventh and eighth as well. Four hits in 2.1 IP is also not a great day at the office, especially when one of the hits was a Tommy Goes Boom moment in giving up a home run to Adam Lind. But it was a solo homer, and again, though they made us sweat a little, it was plenty enough considering the Orioles scored ten runs.

The last run came when Adam Jones got in on the home run party, his eighth of the year. The two teams combined for seven home runs.

Stat gurus were quick to note during the game that Manny Machado has now had five straight three-hit games on the road, which puts him in the august company where Ty Cobb is the only other player to have ever done so before age 21. This is a marginally more interesting thing to say than comparing Machado to Harper and Trout through the same number of games.

Markakis was 3-for-5 on the night, and Jones, Valencia, and Yamaico Navarro all got in on the multi-hit game party with a pair of hits. Every Orioles starter reached base, with Wieters and Steve Pearce going 0-for but each taking a walk. Markakis has now passed Pearce in OPS, having pulled up to a .780 OPS against Pearce's .724. I will stop mocking him for a while.

On the whole, you won't win a lot of games when you give up 17 hits and six runs. Tonight, the Orioles did just that, and the win counts in the standings the same as any other.

They'll be back in action Saturday with a 1:07 start time. Birdland must suffer the presence of Freddy Garcia yet again. O's hitters will be up against the knuckleball of R.A. Dickey for the second time this season. They'll probably need another offensive powerhouse to get a win, but with this lineup, in this stadium, anything is possible.

Poll

Who was the Most Birdland Player for May 24, 2013?

Friday Night Victory GIF Party: Orioles over Blue Jays, 10-6

2013-05-25T02:24:58Z

It is Friday night and the Orioles have vanquished the Toronto Blue Jays in tonight's contest by a 10-6 score. Chris Tillman tied his season high for strikeouts with seven, the Orioles got 16 hits, and the debut of the Blue Jays starter, Sean Nolin, was completely ruined by the offensive onslaught.

YOU KNOW WHAT MUST BE DONE.

Game 48: Orioles (25-22) @ Blue Jays (20-27), 7:07

2013-05-25T02:22:43Z

Last night, the Blue Jays spoiled Kevin Gausman's MLB debut. Friday, the Orioles will look to spoil the debut of Sean Nolin.

As the beer can rained down from the upper deck in the general direction of Nate McLouth last night, I was reminded of a classic Mystery Science Theater 3000 skit. Oh, Canada, you are a place I must eschew!

Now let's go ahead and forget all about last night, except for the parts where Kevin Gausman was awesome. New game tonight, and still a chance to win three in a row and take the series. Chris Tillman will be the one taking the carpet in this game, which is a surprisingly encouraging thing when you consider that he's been the only consistent and healthy starter. I mean, how did that happen, anyway? Especially when you look at his 3.52 BB/9 and 1.34 HR/9. He may, in fact, be due for a giant bowl of regression, with a 3.52 ERA against a 4.68 FIP. Well, don't start tonight, Chris.

The main man for Tillman to watch out for tonight is Jose Bautista, who has two home runs off of him in 15 plate appearances. That'll do it.

Starting for the Blue Jays tonight is Sean Nolin, who is making the leap from AA to MLB all at once, and he has pitched a total of six games at AA. He was Toronto's 6th-round pick in the 2010 draft, with an impressive enough 2.92 ERA over 246 career professional innings. He's struck out over a batter per inning in that time. The game is a little tougher up here, and in those six AA games he's only averaged five innings per start. It is bad for Toronto that they need Nolin for this game, and it will be worse for the Orioles if they can't take advantage of a guy in his debut.

Plus, if Sean Nolin wins his MLB debut and Gausman didn't, that's just wrong, you know? So go ahead and kick the crap out of this guy and we won't have to worry about it. Thanks, Orioles.

Oh, and if the bullpen could stop sucking, that would be great, too.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES	TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Nick Markakis - RF	Melky Cabrera - LF
Manny Machado - 3B	Jose Bautista - RF
J.J. Hardy - SS	Edwin Encarnacion - 1B
Adam Jones - CF	Adam Lind - DH
Chris Davis - 1B	J.P. Arencibia - C
Matt Wieters - C	Brett Lawrie - 3B
Danny Valencia - DH	Colby Rasmus - CF
Steve Pearce - LF	Emilio Bonifacio - 2B
Yamaico Navarro - 2B	Munenori Kawasaki - SS

A look at Chris Tillman's success

2013-05-24T15:13:58Z

Chris Tillman will take the mound for the Orioles tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays. With Wei-Yin Chen on the disabled list with an oblique strain and Jason Hammel struggling to return to his 2012 form, it's safe to say that Chris Tillman is currently the #1 pitcher on the Orioles. He wouldn't be a #1 on a lot of staffs, but he's ours and he's been pretty good this season.

After starting 2012 in the minor leagues, Tillman made 15 starts for the Orioles starting July 4th. He was more successful than we'd ever seen him, pitching to 2.93 ERA and walking fewer batters than we'd ever seen from him. The advanced statistics that attempt to provide a more accurate picture for what to expect going forward didn't like him as much. Tillman's FIP was ~~4.68~~ 4.25 and he had a pretty low BABIP at just .221.

I don't think many of us (if any of us) expected Tillman to pitch to a sub-3.00 ERA in 2013 as he did in 2012, so the question was just how much would it go up and would he pitch well enough to keep his spot in the rotation? So far, Tillman has been successful. He has a 3.52 ERA, which is quite a bit better than average. FIP still doesn't like him, though, as he sits at 4.68 for that stat. There are pitchers who consistently out pitch their FIP (Jeremy Guthrie comes to mind), so hopefully for the Orioles that is what is happening with Tillman and he won't crash anytime soon.

So what's going well so far for Tillman that can give us hope that he'll continue to pitch well this season? And what should we keep in mind as possible factors for a downturn?

Tillman's line drive rate of 21.4% is roughly the same as 2012 (21%), but so far this season he has been about dead even between fly balls (39.6%) and ground balls (39%). He's not close to being a ground ball pitcher, but his FB% is about 5% lower than it was in both 2011 and 2012. This is good news, since every ball hit on the ground is one less ball that could sail out of the ballpark. And with the above average defense of the infield behind him, those ground balls are even more likely to become outs.

Another thing I've noticed about Tillman this season is that his fastball seems much more effective. In 15 starts in 2012, Tillman's fastball was worth -4.6 r uns above average (making it, of course, below average). So far in 2013 it has been worth 6.5 runs above average. That's quite a swing. The pitch value of his other pitches has dropped, which is disappointing, but since his fastball is thrown over 50% of the time, it's the pitch you want to get good results on for sure. His second-most thrown pitch, the curveball, is also positively rated.

One possible stat to keep an eye on is Tillman's walk rate this season. At 3.52 it's not out of control, but of the pitchers who have made more than one start for the Orioles, only Jake Arrieta's is higher. It's one full walk per nine higher than it was last year, and that combined with his (slightly) higher HR rate of 1.34 could end up getting him in trouble.

Something else to keep in mind for Tillman is that he has a pretty high LOB% so far in 2013. At 83%, it's better than both the league average and Tillman's career average. If/when that drops, it could have an ugly affect on his ERA and on the team's chance to win when he's pitching.

I'm not in the projecting business myself, there are just way too many variables for that. But I think there are good signs about Tillman this season and the truth is that, at least for the moment, he's the O's best bet for a good starting pitching performance.

Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

Friday Bird Droppings

2013-05-24T11:40:13Z

So, you didn't get what you wanted for Gausmas...well, the good news is, it happens every five days!

What is really to be said about last night? The Orioles have three more chances to avenge the indignities suffered by Nate McLouth against a Blue Jays rotation held together by chewing gum and baling wire (was MacGyver Canadian?)

There are other matters to discuss...holiday plans (grilling and such), the long awaited Arrested Development re-boot...whatcha got?

School of Roch: Taking another look at Patton and Strop ...but don't look too long, lest you get turned to stone.

Nate McLouth falls into crowd to make a great catch, gets a beer tossed at him afterward | Big League Stew - Yahoo! Sports If you didn't get a chance to watch the game last night, watch this clip a couple times.

Video: Kevin Gausman’s Swinging Strikes Set to Van Halen | NotGraphs Baseball This video is exactly what it purports to be.

The Kevin Gausman Arbitration Clock Is Now Ticking -Baltimore Sports and Life You wanna know the salary implications of Gausmas?

Baltimore Orioles Director Of Pitching Development Rick Peterson Talks About Kevin Gausman " CBS Baltimore Our Friday multimedia spectacular continues!

Baltimore Orioles Reliever Jim Johnson Says, 'Go, Rangers!' - NYTimes.com In which the N.Y. Rangers fanboyishness of Jim Johnson is discussed in painstaking detail. I mean...he's got a Jeff Beukeboom jersey, people.

On this day in 1993, the O's battered Jim Abbott for twelve hits as they beat the Yankees 8-6. Brady Anderson and Chris Hoiles were both 3-5 and, we can only assume, Buck Showalter was not pleased.

Around the Minors: 5/23/13

2013-05-24T05:53:53Z

Norfolk lost 4-3. Jair Jurrjens gave up 2 ER in 5.2 IP on 8 hits (1 HR) and 3 walks, striking out 5 with a GB/FB of 5/7. Mark Hendrickson had a clean sheet in 2.1 IP, striking out 4. Xavier Avery goes 0-5. LJ Hoes goes 2-5 with a K. Ryan Flaherty goes 0-4 with a walk, a K and an error.

Bowie lost 11-5. Clay Schrader retired all five men he faced, 1 via K, with a GB/FB of 0/2. Henry Urrutia goes 2-3 with a double and a walk. Ty Kelly went 1-5.

Frederick won 7-4. Tim Berry yielded 2 ER in 5.2 IP on 8 hits and a walk, striking out 2 with a GB/FB of 7/4. Nicky Delmonico DNP. Christian Walker went 0-5 with 4 Ks. Brenden Webb went 1-3 with a homer and a K, raising his average to .204.

Delmarva won 10-4. Torsten Boss went 1-4 with a homer and a walk. Adrian Marin went 1-4 with a K and an error. Joel Hutter went 1-3 with 2 walks and a K. Rod Bernadina goes 0-3 with 2 walks and 2 Ks. Personally anointed pre-season sleeper prospect Juan Guzman gave up 2 ER in 5 IP on 3 hits (1 HR) and a walk, striking out 3 with a GB/FB of 6/3.

Your minor league boxers.

Orioles 6, Blue Jays 12: That did not go as planned

2013-05-24T03:07:07Z

Tonight was the debut of Kevin Gausman, a night we were all waiting for. The hopes were high and the powdered donuts were purchased. But someone forgot to tell the Blue Jays that tonight wasn't about them and they went and ruined everything. Well, they ruined it with a little help from Troy Patton, Pedro Strop, T.J. McFarland, and Gausman himself.

The O's offense tried to make a game of it, scoring six runs thanks in part to three home runs and another three double night from Manny Machado, but it just wasn't enough to compensate for the total disaster that was tonight's pitching.

Let's start with the reason we all tuned in: Kevin Gausman. There were definitely things about Gausman's night that were promising, and for those of us watching him pitch for the first time, it was nice to see what he had to offer. His fastball was in the upper 90s and even touched 99 a few times and his change up was pretty too. But he couldn't keep the ball down in the zone and had trouble throwing non-fastballs for strikes. Still, he racked up five strikeouts against two walks in five innings, and if not for a fastball that completely missed its mark in fifth inning, resulting in J.P. Arencibia destroying it for a two-run homer, he might have ended up with a much better line on the night.

For a guy who had never pitched above double A, and who only had 46 AA innings to boot, it's not all that surprising. It's not what we were hoping for, but there you go. Now we have to wait and see what Gausman does in the future and how he responds.

Gausman got through the first three innings without giving up a run, and just allowed one baserunner in each (two singles and walk). It took a lot of pitches for him to do so and a few balls were hit hard off of him, but there were times when he looked as we imagined. One that comes to mind was a three pitch strikeout of Emilio Bonifacio to end the second inning. Gausman just completely overmatched him with three fastballs. He also had a nice strikeout of Jose Baustista to start the fifth inning. The at bat included a change up at 82 miles per hour and a fastball at 99. That's just not fair.

The Jays scored their first two runs in the fourth inning thanks to back-to-back doubles from Adam Lind and Arencibia, and a sac fly from Bonifacio. The second two were on Arencibia's home run in the fifth with two outs. Gausman struck out Brett Lawrie to end the inning and his debut.

The Orioles gave Gausman an early lead thanks to more awesomeness from Machado and Chris Davis. Being awesome is nothing new to those guys, of course. In the top of the third, Chris Dickerson and Nate McLouth were on second and first base and they executed a beautiful double steal. I like what I've seen from Dickerson so far. With two runners in scoring position, Machado lined his second double of the night to left field.

The double gave the O's a 2-0 lead and they made it 3-0 the next inning when Davis hit his league leading 15th home run.

Going into the sixth inning the Orioles were down by just one run, a deficit easy enough to overcome. But Gausman's replacement, Troy Patton, was terrible. Patton is exhibit A in how volatile relief pitchers can be. The success he had in 2012 has gone by the wayside. He got the first two outs, but then walked two batters.

So what do you do when you have a pitcher who couldn't find the strikezone with a map? Why, you bring in another wild pitcher, of course. Pedro Strop replaced Patton and immediately walked Jose Bautista to load the bases. That set the stage for Edwin Encarnacion, who is the kind of guy who hits home runs. And he did just that, knocking a line drive off the left field foul pole for a grand slam. That gave the Jays an 8-3 lead and officially ruined Kevin Gausman Day.

The Orioles tried to fight back. J.J. Hardy doubled then eventually came in to score on a sac fly to make the score 8-4, then in the top of the 8th inning Nick Markakis and Adam Jones hit back-to-back home runs to make the score 8-6. Just when you thought the Orioles might stage an awesome rally, T.J. McFarland and the defense let the Blue Jays put the nails in the coffin with a four-run 8th inning.

McFarland had come into the game in the 7th inning after Strop walked (of course) the leadoff batter. He got three quick outs, but didn't have such success when he came back out for the 8th.

After Anthony Gose singled, Bautista hit a ground ball to shortstop. Hardy made a rare throwing error and both runners were safe. As if that wasn't enough, McFarland then threw a pitch that got past Wieters for a passed ball. Both runners moved up and Wieters tried to throw out Bautista at second. Gose ran home on the play and though the throw from Casilla was close, Gose scored.

The inning only got worse from there. Two walks, a couple singles, and a sacrifice fly later and the score was 12-6. The O's went quietly in the 9th to put an end to this ridiculous game.

So, as the headlines says, that did not go as planned. It's tough to see them lose like that, and frustrating to see the bullpen perform so poorly. But Gausman was a treat, even if he didn't throw a fantastic game. There's always next time.

It's Official: Orioles Purchase Kevin Gausman's Contract, Option Jake Arrieta, Designate Some Guy For Assignment

2013-05-23T21:09:21Z

Unfortunately for someone, a necessary step to be taken for the arrival of Gausmas is that a roster space must be cleared. With Kevin Gausman set to start tonight's game in Toronto, that means space has to be cleared on both the 25- and 40-man rosters.

You could look at the roster and probably guess whose time would come up. Indeed, Jake Arrieta is the one to be optioned. He was extra bullpen help that was never needed, and was bandied about as a possible starter for tonight. But why would you have Arrieta start a game when you could have Gausman start a game? This is the question Dan Duquette and company considered, and the answer is Jake returns to Norfolk.

Additionally, some guy was designated for assignment. That guy is Alex Burnett. When he was traded to the Orioles, I said that they acquired some guy. He is still just some guy. He doesn't matter. If he clears waivers, which he probably will, because he is Alex Burnett, then he may find himself back in Norfolk. In the meantime, uncertainty. Sorry, guy.

Gausman, according to the Orioles press release, is slated to be the third member of the 2012 draft class to make his major league debut. 82nd overall pick LHP Paco Rodriguez has appeared for the Dodgers, and 297th overall LHP Michael Roth has appeared for the Angels. Rodriguez is a reliever, and Roth was mostly a reliever, making one start.

We are now at approximately t-minus two hours.