I'm bored and stuck in my house. As such, it's hard so say how many updates CC will get this weekend, not to mention that I'm telling you right now there is no accounting for substance in this situation. I never thought I'd say this, y'all, but I am freaking tired of snow. So, with all of that laid before you, I present the landing spots of your former Baltimore Orioles.

In 2009 there were 48 players who made an appearance with the Baltimore Orioles. Some of those will be back with the team this year, some will be in the O's minor league system, and 15 of them have moved on. For some reason I always enjoy looking at the player pages to see our former Orioles in their new team caps courtesy of photo shop.

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Érik Bédard, why have you forsaken us?

Ok, so it's not official yet, but it appears that Bédard is headed back to the Seattle Mariners on a one year deal.

MLB.com's Jim Street first reported that the Mariners are interested in re-signing Bédard:

I have now heard that the deal is a one-year $1.5 million base salary contract that includes a shipload of incentives.  Bedard, you might recall, made $7.5 million last season.

Later, the News Tribune out of Tacoma, WA talked to Bédard about the possibility of returning to the Mariners and Bédard showed great interest although he said no offer has been extended. Some rosy quotes from the surly Canadian:

"They' ve done a phenomenal job this off-season," Bedard said. "Getting Cliff Lee? Man, with Felix (Hernandez) and Lee at the top of the rotation, how are you ever going to lose?"

"I'd love it - put me down as No. 3B, because Ryan (Rowland-Smith) could be No. 3, he's ready," Bedard said. "I'd love to be back in Seattle."

Finally, at about 4 p.m., Jon Morosi of Yahoo! tweeted:

Source confirms that Bedard is close to a one-year deal with the #Mariners. #MLB

I've wanted Érik Bédard to return to the Orioles since the day he became a free agent, and now it looks like it probably won't happen. Bédard is hardly a sure thing. He's rehabbing from labrum surgery and he won't be ready to pitch until late May/early June at the earliest. If he'll return to form or even close to it remains to be seen. But I still wanted him.

The Orioles have a lot of promising young pitching and a few veterans, but you can never have enough pitching. The idea of having Bédard as depth in the middle of the season and the idea of seeing him in the rotation with Brian Matusz and Brad Bergesen and Chris Tillman made me a giddy Orioles fan. I even learned how to make the accent aigu for him!

Even though Bédard hasn't been close this off-season to returning to the Orioles, I still sort of feel like I lost something. That's what I get for getting my hopes up. But I suppose if Bédard isn't going to be an Oriole, Seattle is a pretty decent place for him. If he can return and be effective, a rotation including Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, and Bédard is straight up ridiculous.

As indicated in a story in the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles are currently looking at both Joe Crede and Miguel Tejada to play third base in 2010 with the intention of moving Garrett Atkins to 1B. Forgetting the fact that there are about 4 bazillion reasons that putting Atkins at 1B instead of oh, say, Luke Scott is a bad idea, let's say the Orioles are going to get one of these guys to play 3B. Who would you choose?

Let's make a list! Lists always help me decide.

Decision? I choose neither. Stick Atkins at 3B and let Luke play 1B until you find a real first baseman. Yeah, that doesn't really go with what I wrote above about assuming they sign one of them, but seriously. Neither one of these guys is a good decision, so, much like Kelly Taylor being forced to pick between Dylan McKay and Brandon Walsh, I choose me.

It appears the Orioles weren't so much "waiting in the weeds" as they were taking simply taking a nap. Matt Holliday returns to the Cardinals for a 7 year, $120M contract with a full no-trade clause. It's not a disappointment to me because I never actually thought he'd sign with the Orioles. I may have let my mind wander to the possibility, but that's about it. I'm actually glad he ended up in St. Louis. By all accounts St. Louis is a great city in which to play, he'll be side-by-side in the lineup with Albert Pujols, and the Cards are perennial contenders. Even if the Orioles were serious about him, how could they compete with that? 

Other news that's not shocking in and of itself but which still gave me a start when I read the headline is the announced retirement of Randy Johnson. It's not shocking in that Johnson is 46 years and has dealt with injuries the past few years, but every time one of the guys I grew up watching retires I feel a little sad. Johnson is possibly the last 300 game winner we'll see for generations, and as a pitcher he really did it all. 5 Cy Young awards, 2 no-hitters, one World Series Championship. He's one of the nastiest pitchers I've ever seen and even though I unfortunately didn't keep close track of him when he was in the NL, I'll always remember him as a member of those early 1990s Seattle Mariners teams that I loved so much. It's rare that I really root for a team other than the Orioles, but that Mariners team with Johnson, Ken Griffey, Jr., Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner, Harold Reynolds, and the rest were really something. So best of luck to Randy Johnson, owner of that legendary mullet. Baseball will never see a pitcher quite like him again. 

Finally, according to Buster Olney, the Orioles appear to be in the hunt for 1B Adam LaRoche. In case you sometimes get your Andy and Adam LaRoches confused, rest assured that Adam is the more successful of the two. He will be 30 years old in 2010 but has put up much better career numbers than any of the other current Orioles 1B, albeit all in the NL other than his 6 game stint with the Red Sox in 2009. I could be ok with LaRoche manning 1B for the O's in 2010. 

Whether you like it, hate it, or are apathetic, Garrett Atkins is an Oriole. We've all heard about Atkins' decline, but honestly I don't know that much about his career. He's only played in the National League, and out west at that, so I've never had much exposure to him. In an effort to hear from someone who actually watched him play, I reached out to Russ Oates at Purple Row and asked him a few questions about our new acquisition.

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From Tracy Ringolsby at Fox Sports:

[Matt] Holliday has indicated an interest if the term is reduced to seven years, the sources said, although agent Scott Boras remains focused on an eight-year, $160 million deal, similar to the one the Yankees gave Mark Teixeira a year ago. 

Baltimore, meanwhile, did make an eight-year, $130 million offer to Holliday, and general manager Andy MacPhail did discuss the possibility of arranging a meeting between himself, Orioles owner Peter Angelos and Holliday in Austin, Tex., where Holliday is living in the offseason. 

Boras was not available for comment and has declined requests to discuss negotiations.

Is this true? Hard to say. One thing I will say is that I've come around on the Orioles signing Holliday. I think I'm actually be in favor of it. But I would not be in favor of it for 8 years. 8 years is absurd. 

More info as I hear it, although I'd imagine it wouldn't be anything more than maybe some local media (Roch?) responding. Even if it's true it's not like MacPhail or anyone will talk about it. 

Update from Roch (3:07 p.m.):

Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has denied a FOXSports report that the club made an eight-year, $130 million offer to free-agent outfielder Matt Holliday.

MacPhail said there's "no validity" to it. And he was adamant.

MacPhail and agent Scott Boras discussed Holliday once, during negotiations with free-agent closer Mike Gonzalez, but the Orioles weren't willing to meet his price.

Sorry to disappoint you, but Holliday's demands far exceed what the Orioles are willing to offer.

So there you go. 8 years doesn't seem up Andy's alley anyway. 

When the Orioles signed Type-A free agent Mike Gonzalez to a two-year, $12M contract on Wednesday, one of the major concerns of many was the loss of the Orioles 2nd round draft pick in 2010. My first inclination was to agree, but after thinking about it for awhile I realized I had no idea the actual value of a second round draft pick. What is the likelihood of a 2nd round draft pick not only reaching the majors but having a significant impact? How does a team leverage that against the value they can get from the free agent, in this case "just" a relief pitcher (albeit one with a very good track record)?

To find some answers, I did what I usually do: I went to Baseball Reference. Using their draft section, I looked at every 2nd round draft pick from 1985 to 2001. I'd planned on using 20 years of data but frankly, once I got to 17 it seemed that I had enough (read: I was tired of looking at it). 

From 1985 to 2001 there were 506 second round draft picks. Of those, 262 (51.78%) never saw a day in the MLB. Of the remaining 244, 14 didn't sign but were re-drafted in the future and eventually made it to the MLB. That leaves 230 (45.45%) of the draftees who signed and eventually had an appearance in the MLB. 

45% is a decent chance, but that includes players who possibly spent just 1 day on a big league team. When all players who played less than 100 games are removed, the total drops to just 22.92%, 49 pitchers and 67 position players. The list includes a few great players (Randy Johnson) and a number of solid players (Carlos Beltran), but also plenty of the Freddie Bynum variety. 

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Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi report that the Orioles are pursuing, at some level, Matt Holliday. 

The Orioles have jumped into the bidding, though both the seriousness of their efforts and Holliday’s desire to play in Baltimore are in question, major-league sources say. 

Holliday, 29, is unlikely to go to the Orioles — a team coming off 12 straight losing seasons — unless they make him a much stronger offer than the Cardinals

The article details a number of reasons Holliday to the O's makes sense, including the O's young talent, their low payroll, and the fact that Holliday and new Oriole Garrett Atkins are BFF. 

I think everyone would agree that, regardless of whether or not it's a good idea, the chance of Holliday coming to the O's is a long shot at best. Unfortunately for Scott Boras and Matt Holliday, neither the Yankees or Red Sox seem interested in signing the left fielder. It's possible that the Cardinals are bidding against themselves right now and somebody put the word out there that the Orioles are in it to give the illusion that there is more demand than actually exists. 

If the Orioles are legitimately interested in Matt Holliday, I personally don't think it's a good idea. It's not that I think he's not a good player; he's obviously quite good. But he's going to cost a ton of money and he plays the outfield. Of all the problems the Orioles currently have, the outfield isn't one. The rumored offer on the table from the Cardinals is 5 years at $16M/year, and you'd have to think the O's would need to go beyond that to get Holliday to Baltimore. With Nick Markakis and Adam Jones anchored in the outfield, Nolan Reimold not far behind, and Felix Pie ready to pick up any slack, that's $16M a year that would be much better served filling the O's needs in the infield or to continue to build up the pitching staff. 

Of course, signing Holliday would provide the Orioles with the flexibility to trade Reimold or move him to DH. I don't know what kind of trade value he'd have right now as he's had part of one successful major league season and is coming off injury. But moving him to DH would allow Luke Scott to be traded, or if not, put at 1B on a regular basis. Holliday could also DH some to give Pie time in the outfield. I mean, it does open up possibilities. 

But $16M a year for an outfielder? Count me out.