I feel so bipolar when it comes to the Orioles. I look at the team and I feel hopeful. Promising young position players, promising starting pitchers, a GM who has done nothing but improve the team since getting here two years ago. Then two seconds later I realize how far this team is from contending and it depresses the hell out of me. This team won 64 games in 2009. That's at least 30 less than they'll need to even have a chance at the post season. 

Our young players are getting better and Andy MacPhail is constantly doing what he can to improve the team, but it's hard to imagine this team getting to the level of the Yankees and Red Sox and, to a lesser degree, Rays. 

Sometimes I think that maybe it's not that bad and that I just can't comprehend a good team in Baltimore. It's been so long since I've seen one that I don't really know what it looks like. And I've been let down so many times that I can't have confidence in any players or any front office. I think maybe our young talent is actually good. I mean, I hear it all the time and I see Brian Matusz have some success and Chris Tillman show promise. But remember Adam Loewen? Remember Matt Riley? I think of Nolan Reimold and I'm thrilled with his success, but then I remember Larry Bigbie. The ghosts of our awful past just can't let me believe wholly in our current players. 

I want to have hope, but I don't want to have hope in something that will end up imploding. I don't even have any idea if they're worth my hope. I've been viewing baseball through this orange filter for so long that I can't tell what's real and what isn't. And it's hard to go on record with optimism about the future when I'm scared they will end up embarrassing me. Again.  

I love this team and sometimes I wish I didn't quite so much. It'd be easier to just forget about them and be all "Joe Flaccooooo" all winter long and then if and when they did get their acts together in 2011 or 2015, then I'd show up. It'd be easier, but I could never do it. 

64 wins. No team has won the AL East with less than 95 wins since 2000 when the Yankees took first with 87.  Only once in that same time period did the wild card winner have less than 95, and it was only one less. How can they possibly do it?

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Bring it. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Browse more photos »

The final look at Bill James' projections will focus on the Orioles young outfield. In Part 1 I drooled over Matt Wieters, in Part 2 I went into fantasyland, and here in Part 3 I will bask in the talent of the Orioles outfield.

It's hardly news to anyone here that the Orioles outfield is one of the most promising in baseball. All four outfielders will be 26 or younger on Opening Day 2010, all have shown a lot of promise, and one has already established himself as one of the most solid outfielders in the MLB. There will surely be discussions here about what exactly to do with the outfielders given that over the course of 2009 four of them showed they are capable of being starters. Should Nolan DH with Pie in LF? Would the outfield be better with Pie in CF and Jones in LF? Is Pie too good to be a 4th OF? Should he be traded for something the Orioles need more? These are the best kinds of questions to have because they all revolve around the actual talent of the players. It's a far cry from the O's outfields of recent past (Players to man the outfield for the Orioles from 2005-2008: Jeff Fiorentino, Eli Marrero, Eric Byrnes, 40 year old B.J. Surhoff, Jay Payton, Corey Patterson, Jay Gibbons, Tike Redman, 40 year old Jeff Conine, Luis Matos, David Newhan, Sammy Sosa, Larry Bigbie, Brandon Fahey, Luis Terrero, Freddie Bynum, Lou Montanez, Luke Scott, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis).

I'm going to operate under the assumption that the Orioles outfield will be, from left to right: Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis, with Felix Pie being the 4th outfielder who hopefully gets a good chunk of playing time. It's also safe to assume that at least one of the starters will have some injury problems (*cough* Adam Jones) and it would be nice to have someone competent to fill in.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

(AP Photo/Gail Burton)

Browse more photos »

Contrary to many of my perhaps-forgotten comments in the last two years, I was a pretty big Melvin Mora fan. My feeling that it was time for him to be replaced didn't change that. The fact that as an Orioles fan I'm relieved that his time is up doesn't change it, either.

Mora's last four seasons in Baltimore were pretty rough overall, clouding what I hope will turn out to be blue sky memories of his time as an Oriole. Because Melvin Mora was an Oriole -- a real one. Sure, we got him from the Mets (and again, Mets, thanks for that trade), but we took a utility man nearing the end of his likely upside and got an All-Star performer out of the deal.

When Melvin came over from New York in the middle of the 2000 season and hit a little bit -- nothing special, but a little bit -- it was nice. But who expected it to continue? In fact, it didn't continue. In 2001, Mora hit .250/.329/.362, and for all the world you would have been completely forgiven for not wanting to see the light-hitting, 30-year old Mora come back for '02.

But he did. And when you looked past his .233 batting average, you could see a few things. He led the team with 70 walks and hit 19 homers. At the end of the day, though, it still didn't look that impressive. .742 OPS, decent, useful, but not worth going out of your way for.

At 32 years of age, he became an All-Star. In an injury-shortened season, he raked .317/.418/.503, and he followed that up with a just plain nasty .340/.419/.562 line in 2004, leading the American League in on-base percentage and emerging as one of the most overlooked great players in the game.

It was, of course, a career year. Mora made another All-Star team during the ill-fated 2005 campaign, the first season of Camden Chat's existence. He played well that year, though not up to the unrealistic standards of '04. And he just sort of kept declining bit by bit. It happens. He was in his mid-30s, had one of the strangest career trajectories you'll ever see (even in an era of strange career trajectories), and well, nothing gold can stay.

When Mora made that big second-half surge in 2008, my critical mind was filled with the idea that it was a fluke, that this shouldn't be any reason to think he was still going to be an effective third baseman in the majors, that nobody should get too excited. And I turned out to be right, but big woopty doo. I don't care about that now. All I care about is that I got to see a few more fine summer afternoons where Melvin Mora torched the Tigers, watching him tearing the cover off of the ball all throughout the dog days of summer.

When I read a few days ago that the Orioles declined their option on Mora, it struck me. Just reading that in print: "Orioles decline option on Melvin Mora." The same Melvin Mora who played here for 10 1/2 years. Of course it was time for the Orioles to let go. The old veteran just isn't a part of this team's future, and he had a tough year to boot. It's not like he's hitting as he ages. His decline is obvious. But still: "Orioles decline option on Melvin Mora." A bit jarring.

Maybe he'll retire. Selfishly, I kind of hope he does. I don't want to see Melvin scrapping in some other team's uniform, though I wouldn't at all be bothered seeing him sign with a contender in a reserve role and maybe even win a World Series. He was a damn fine ballplayer. He is also a good man, and a proud one who never wanted to sit down on the bench, never wanted to give up his spot, never wanted to let you forget his vast playoff experience.

That last bit of snark brings us to something else, which is the "other" side of Melvin Mora. When he felt oppressed, he whined. When he felt that Dave Trembley didn't "respect" him enough, he found someone to complain to about just that. It was all quite off-putting, and there's no getting around it. But how do we remember Jim Palmer, who was a prima donna of the highest order? (Not that Mora is Jim Palmer, but you know what I mean.)

I say let the sleeping dogs lie. Melvin had his days. Who doesn't? I truly believe he wanted to win here, wanted to be part of the "rebirth" of Orioles baseball. And I'll bet that when the Orioles get back to the World Series, one of the players you'll see honored and honored to be there will be Melvin Mora. That ovation he'll receive someday down the line is already well-deserved.

More photos » by Mark Lennihan - AP

He's flashy. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

Browse more photos »

Last week's 2010 AL East projections post covered catcher, first base, and second base for the O's and their divisional rivals, so today we'll take a look at shortstop, third base, and designated hitter. In case you missed the last post, the projections being used are those by Bill James that will be contained in his 2010 Handbook. This information was provided to SB Nation with permission to be posted as we see fit.

The projections for the first part were easier to narrow down as they covered two sure things in the lineup (Matt Wieters and Brian Roberts) and one guess made by me based on the players in the Orioles system right now (Luke Scott). This section, however, is trickier. For one thing, the bulk of the 3B projections by Bill James goes to Melvin Mora. Remember that Bill James doesn't make predictions on if a player will play/be on the team but rather how he will do if he IS on the team. And if Melvin Mora were on the team next year the chances are he'd be the starting 3B for the O's in most games. But Mora will not be back, so those projections can be scrapped as far as we're concerned. That leaves at 3B, among the current options, Ty Wigginton and Joshua Bell. The odds are that Wiggy will start the year at 3B and if Bell proves himself at 3B he will make an appearance sometime in the season. But it's the off-season and frankly talking about Ty Wigginton isn't very fun, so instead I'm going to pretend that Josh Bell makes the team out of spring training.

Additionally, I already used last year's main DH in the projection for first base, so I'm going to go completely off base and suggest a brand new DH for the O's in 2010. It's based on nothing more than a little dream I have that you can feel free to make fun of. Of the existing options, it's much more likely that the O's will stick Luke Scott back at DH and start the year with Michael Aubrey or the equivalent at 1B, but that's boring.

And of course, Cesar Izturis plays SS and he is not good at hitting.

On to the projections after the jump!

Continue reading this post »

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

I miss him already. Get here soon, spring! (AP Photo/ Gail Burton)

Browse more photos »

I was fortunate enough to get a preview of Bill James' 2010 hitter and pitcher projections, which will be coming out as part of his handbook on November 1st. If you want to buy the handbook (which I wholly recommend), you can order it from the ACTA Sports webpage, or at Amazon.com or the like. The handbook includes a lot more than just the batter and pitcher projections; it's a real treasure. I haven't seen the 2010 version yet as it's not released but I've read past years' versions and they rock.

If you're unfamiliar with Bill James' player projections, he releases them every year for current players and prospects that could get playing time. They're all based on past performance and what James considers to be the natural extension of what they've already proven they can do. For the players with little or no major league experience, he doesn't attempt to make a determination on if they will play in 2010, just a determination of how they will do if the team brings them up. The example he uses in his introduction is actually regarding Josh Bell:

What we should do is try to answer this question: If this player plays, how will he play? If Joshua Bell opens the 2010 season as the Baltimore Orioles third baseman, what will he hit? That's the question we should be focused on. Whether Bell will or will not get a chance to play next season, when his chance might come. . .we don't have a fair chance to get that one right. Our job is to figure out how good he will be, when and if his ticket arrives.

I thought it'd be fun to do a little AL East comparison by position using the projections. For the most part they won't take into account any changes the Orioles or other AL East teams hope to make before the 2010 starts. It should give a pretty good indicator of the biggest areas of needs for the O's (not that we don't already know them, really) as well as where they actually match up well in the division.

This will be part one of the discussion, focusing on C, 1B, and 2B. Part two will cover SS, 3B, and DH, and part 3 will tackle the outfield.

Oh, and I said that for the most part I won't try to account for any changes, but I've taken a few liberties. One is to insert Josh Bell at 3B, even though I think we all know it's unlikely he'll start 2010 there. James' projections include Melvin Mora and Ty Wigginton, but there's no way I'm even considering Mora back at 3B, and I don't want to talk about Wiggy. I also made two other speculative changes that you'll see when the time comes. Suspense!!

See the good stuff below the jump.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Your time is almost up, Danys. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Browse more photos »

With just a few days left in the 2009 season, the Orioles are on the cusp of being out from under a number of contracts, notably those of the pitchers Danys Baez and Jamie Walker, two of the more ill advised contracts in recent Oriole history. Between the two of them they made $11.67M in 2009, which is over 17% of the total payroll and more than Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Brad Bergesen, Felix Pie, Adam Jones, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Luke Scott, Cesar Izturis, and Nick Markakis made combined (I know, I know, most of those guys haven't been free agents, but still, on talent vs. value that's just criminal).

Just after the 2006 season, a time that feels like an eternity ago, Mike Flanagan and Jim Duquette attempted to shore up a miserable Orioles bullpen by throwing millions of dollars at Chad Bradford, Danys Baez, and Jamie Walker. For the three relief pitchers the Orioles committed over $40M over 3 years, an investment upon which they wouldn't even come close to breaking even.

Jamie Walker: $12M. Chad Bradford: $10.5M. Danys Baez: $19M. Do you know how many relief pitchers are worth $19M over three years? Not many. With the exception of premiere pitchers like Mariano Rivera, relief pitchers are too volatile, too susceptible to injury, to sustain that type of value. 

Orioles fans can say with certainty that these contracts were a bad idea. We watched the games, after all. We cringed every time Walker came in to face Carlos Pena or David Ortiz. We watched Baez walk God and country and follow it up with a home run to blow the save more than a few times. If you look at the numbers, it just gets worse. Per FanGraphs, here are the values of the Orioles three bullpen investments over the duration of their contracts:

Do the math and the those three pitchers were paid just over $41M for $3M worth of pitching. See the details on each pitcher below the jump...

Continue reading this post »

by Rob Carr - AP

View full size photo »

There are 25 games remaining in the 2009 season, which means that, barring some crazy circumstance, we have 25 more times to watch Melvin Mora play baseball as a Baltimore Oriole. I know that a number of you say good riddance, and when I'm watching Melvin sometimes I think the same thing. But Mora is one of only 23 players to spend at least 10 seasons with the Orioles and is arguably the second best third baseman in team history. I loved Melvin in the past, and I'm determined to do so again before this season is over.

In 2000, Melvin Mora was traded to the Orioles as a 27 year old utility player with about one year of major league experience and no real expectations assigned to him. In his first 426 games as an Oriole he continued to serve in the super utility role, playing every position on the field except pitcher, catcher, and third base. He really came into his own offensively in 2003, hitting .317/.418/.503 with 17 2B, 15 HR, and 49 BB in 413 plate appearances. His reward was the full time 3B position beginning in 2004, and he's been there ever since.

Given one position to play and every day to play it for the first time in his career seemed to suit Melvin. At 32 years old he had the best year of his career, hitting .340/.419/.562 with 41 2B and 27 HR, winning the Silver Slugger for his position. A position, incidentally, at which Mora had only two major league starts prior to 2004 (plus 106 games in the minors). Mora was a bright spot on another losing Orioles team and quickly became a fan favorite. His three year extension, announced during the 2006 season, was roundly applauded (including by our Cobra Commander).

So what happened? Melvin never had another season like 2004, certainly. He put up decent, but not great, numbers in 2006 and 2007, then in 2008 his numbers dropped dramatically until a Ruthian surge in the 2nd half gave him total numbers for the year that were his best since 2005. Here in 2009, Melvin isn't doing so well, although at the age of 37 it's not unexpected that he'd be in decline. He also gave his infamous (on Camden Chat anyway) "Dave Trembley doesn't respect me for the All Star that I am" speech, which didn't win over many. It's worth noting that Melvin had similar thoughts back in 2007 when Scott Moore was given a brief chance at third base. Things like that make it hard to love Melvin Mora, but I'm going to try anyway.

Why am I going to try? Because as I said before, Melvin has given us a lot in the years he's been here, and he is arguably the second best third baseman in Orioles history. There's no argument who the best is, and a fair number of people would put Doug DeCinces as second best. DeCinces undoubtedly had a better career than Melvin Mora has had to this point, but a number of his best offensive seasons came as a member of the California Angels. I never had the chance to see DeCinces play, but from what I've been told and what I can ascertain through his statistics, he was above average, but not exceptional, both offensively and defensively. Mora has made himself into an average defensive 3B and despite his recent woes has been above average offensively as a Baltimore Oriole. I don't feel I know enough about DeCinces to make a decision on who was a better 3B for the Orioles, but I can tell it's a close race (I also think it's safe to assume that some of those who did watch DeCinces play will say he was better even if he wasn't, because that's how memory works, and DeCinces did play during the good old days).

In cumulative offensive statistics (runs, hits, home runs, doubles, RBI), Mora is 2nd to Brooks Robinson in every catagory. In other statistics, Mora has the highest batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage of any 3B who's played at least 150 games at the position (that's stats at the position only, not overall player stats).

Of late, Mora has played better offensively than he did for the first two-thirds of the year. No matter how well he plays for the rest of the year, he won't be able to salvage this season, but here's hoping he goes out in a blaze of glory. I don't want my final memories of him to be what we saw the first part of this season. On Saturday I sat on the third base side at Camden Yards and joked as we sat down that no matter what at least I get to be so close to Melvin. He went on to get three hits and make a diving catch late in the game. It was when he made that catch that I realized I want to love Melvin Mora, no matter his stupid bunts and his playoff experience and all of the disrespect he faces on a daily basis. Hopefully Melvin will keep it together enough for the rest of the season so that I can do just that.

Troy Patton, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Brad Bergesen, Jake Arrieta, and David Hernandez will all be in the running for the 2010 rotation.

View full size photo »

The Orioles young pitchers are the talk of not only the Baltimore Orioles community, but of the baseball community at large. If even a few of the team's prospects pan out and Andy MacPhail can build a competent offense, the Orioles will be competitive in the AL East soon enough. Most people put that date at 2011, with 2010 being a year of real development.

The current 2009 rotation is Jeremy Guthrie, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jason Berken, with Brad Bergesen and Koji Uehara on the DL. It continues to boggle my mind that if not for Jeremy Guthrie the rotation would be made up entirely of rookies, and rookies that aren't half bad.

It reasons to think that there will be stiff competition for the 2010 rotation, competition that includes all seven pitchers listed above as well as Jake Arrieta, Troy Patton, and any pitchers the Orioles pick up in the off season. Compare that list to the competition for the 2009 rotation: Danys Baez, Brian Bass, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Hendrickson, Rich Hill, David Pauley, Hayden Penn, Alfredo Simon, Koji Uehara, and Chris Waters. My, how times have changed.

One thing is sure no matter how the rotation shakes out: they're going to be young. Of the current pitchers in the Orioles system who will be competing for a starting job, only Jeremy Guthrie (31) and Koji Uehara (35) will be over the age of 26. Guthrie has a good chance of making the rotation but it seems the writing is on the wall that Koji will end up in the bullpen barring a meltdown by the youngsters.

I've heard Dave Trembley say that a goal for the off season is to obtain another starting pitcher. I can't imagine he'd say that without having first discussed it with Andy MacPhail, so I think it's safe to assume that's one thing he'll be trying to do before Opening Day 2010.  In all likelihood they will look for a pitcher with experience to act as an anchor and mentor to the young staff. I think they hoped that Jeremy Guthrie would be able to handle such a task but his performance so far this year isn't filling anyone with confidence.

As for the bullpen, I think the most important thing to keep the bullpen effective is for the Orioles go have starters who can go deeper into games. Currently the Orioles starting pitchers are averaging less than 5 1/2 innings per game and wearing out the bullpen. Obviously there are many factors at play, but there is certainly a correlation between the effectiveness of the bullpen early in the year when they were fresh and well rested to the troubles they are having now. The Orioles will lose Mark Hendrickson and Danyz Baez for certain, any other changes I'm unconcerned with. The days of the Orioles signing multiple high dollar relievers is over, a good thing given the volatile nature of relievers from year to year. Probably the only interesting story regarding the bullpen going into 2010 will be who is named closer.

So, back to starters. Andy does love his trades, but since I have neither the talent for thinking up trades nor the inclination to even try, instead let's just take a look at the upcoming free agents. The list is below the jump.

Continue reading this post »