This Thursday, February 25th, I will be joining Drew Forrester in studio from 7:00-8:30 to talk about the Orioles and their 2010 season. Drew has also invited me to call in and talk Orioles baseball three days per week for the remainder of Spring Training. Instead of just making a brief announcement the way I've done in the past I thought I should provide something of a preemptive response to what some of you will say. 

I know that a lot of people here dislike WNST, especially in regards to Nestor Aparicio and Drew Forrester. It wouldn't take much searching around Camden Chat to discover that on occasion I've had a few choice things to say about them myself. It might seem curious that I'd agree to appear on WNST with Drew given his reputation for taking an extreme negative view of the Orioles and the hijinks that WNST has been a part of in the past, but I do have a few (what I think are good) reasons.

For one thing, it's a pretty big thing for Camden Chat to be invited to take such a role on a traditional media outlet. Regardless of your opinion on WNST, that is what they are. In this changing age of media I think it's important to take advantage of an opportunity to present Camden Chat as a legitimate source of Orioles analysis and discussion. 

Additionally, I have to admit that I was flattered to be asked and also intrigued at the idea of doing something so totally out of my realm of comfort and experience. Don't get me wrong, I had reservations about accepting the offer. I discussed it with a few people whose opinions I value and ultimately decided to do it. I was worried that by going on Drew Forrester's show I might be perceived as endorsing some of the things that he and WNST have said or done in the past and that certainly isn't the case. If anything I think that my opportunity to interact with Drew might offer some balance to his opinions that could make for good discussion.

If you dislike WNST I certainly don't expect you to change your opinion based on the fact that I'll be appearing there. And who knows what I'll get out of the experience?  Whether it'll turns out to be positive or negative, I think that at the very least it'll be interesting.

You can hear WNST at 1570AM in Baltimore and online at WNST.net. 

More photos » Rob Carr - AP

I'll use any excuse to post this picture. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Browse more photos »

Brian Roberts revealed today that he was diagnosed with a small herniated disc in his back about one month ago, but he doesn't foresee it being an issue in getting ready for Opening Day. Some quotes from Roberts, courtesy of Roch Kubatko:

"It set me back a couple weeks, but we're starting to progress," he said. "We're still going to have to take it slow with the hitting, just so we don't have any setbacks.

"I was working out and thought I had back spasms like I've gotten before, but it just kind of lingered. That's when we decided to dig a little deeper."

The good news is that doctors in both Arizona and Baltimore have determined that he will not need surgery. The bad news is that this could set Roberts back quite a bit, even if he does say he will be ready in time for Opening Day. It's also a reminder that the Orioles second baseman is no spring chicken. They can be as sunshine-y as they want to be about this injury but for some reason I feel a bit of doom regarding the entire thing.

If Roberts ends up missing time we're looking at the following scenarios at 2B: Robert Andino (ugh), Ty Wigginton (ew), or Justin Turner (hmmm...maybe). 

Hopefully, this is just a HUGE non-story, and Brad Bergesen is simply a few days behind the rest of the pitchers at Spring Training. According to MASN's Roch Kubatko, Brad apparently had not yet begun throwing off a mound in his off-season work, and was summoned to Oriole Park at Camden Yards to film this spot. 

He tweaked his shoulder, and felt pain, and alerted the training staff soon after once the pain didn't subside. He's been a bit cagey about the injury since it happened, and swears he will be fine for Opening Day. Here's hoping he is right.

Love it or hate it, Miguel Tejada is officially an Oriole (again). He's one of us now so I'm going to do my best to love the fact that he's here. Let's do it!

For your viewing pleasure. I'm not going to lie, listening to Miggi talk makes me a little happy:

Miggi's press conference part 1

Miggi's press conference part 2

Andy MacPhail on Miguel Tejada's transition to third base and Josh Bell's future

Steve Melewski talks with Miguel Tejada returning to Baltimore

Miggy's back, baby. Miggy's back.

View full size photo »

From the Baltimore Sun:

The Orioles have reached an agreement with free agent Miguel Tejada on a one-year, $6 million deal, according to team sources, reuniting the club with the six-time All-Star who played in Baltimore from 2004 to 2007.

The deal is pending a physical, which is expected to take place over the next couple days.

I know many disagree with me, but I see this as a great move for the Orioles. Yes, Miggy's power is down. Yes, he's moving to a position he has consistently and vehemently fought against playing. Yes, he was a bit of a clubhouse cancer at the end of his first tenure in Baltimore.

But facts are facts. After a down 2008, a year in which he played under the aftermath of the Mitchell Report and in which it was discovered he was actually 2 years older than previously thought, Tejada fashioned a .313 BA in Houston in 2009, a 109 OPS+ and a .795 SLG. Oh yeah, and he was one hit shy of 200 for the season. He still hits into a ton of double plays. His OBP is less than 30 points higher than his BA. His strikeouts (48) more than double his walks (19).

But the man can still hit. And we don't need 2004 Miggy, hitting in the center of the lineup and mashing over the wall. We need a Miggy who can hit .300 and move runners by putting the ball in play, and not embarrass himself on the field. We don't need Miggy to be the best hitter on the team. Or the next best. Or even the third best.

We need Miggy (.313/.340 /.455 /.795/109 OPS+ in 2009) to be better than what our other options were. And those options were Ty Wigginton (.273/.314/.400/.714/87 OPS+), Joe Crede (.225/.289/.414/.703/83 OPS+) or Garrett Atkins (.226/.308/.342/.650/66 OPS+). I seriously doubt he will make enough errors to balance out the clear advantage he brings in offense.

It's a one year deal with incentives costing the O's about $6 million. For that, we get a player the fans loved (for a time, at least), a player who's been the AL MVP, a player who's been to six All-Star Games, and one who's new-found humility will let him move to 3rd base presumably without the drama he brought when the move was previously suggested. Make no mistake - Miggy needs the O's far more than the O's need Miggy. We had options, just not as good ones. Miggy was running clean out of places of employment for the price he wanted.

If he hits, we flip him at the ASG Break or soon after for another part. If he REALLY hits, and somehow, the O's are hanging around respectability or (God help us) the wild-card race, we keep him. He doesn't hit or he does whine? We've got options. The O's swallowed far more in salary cutting Jay Gibbons loose than what they would eat in Miggy's entire 2010 salary.

And consider this - with the signing of Miguel Tejada, we get back the player we traded to Houston to acquire our starting DH (Luke Scott), two of our relief pitchers for the last two years (Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate), organizational depth at OF (Mike Costanzo) and a pitcher who may still have an upside (Troy Patton). And it wasn't like we weren't gonna finish last with him. If we actually resign Erik Bedard, the Orioles will still have most of the original 12 players in the two deals, and will have flipped one remaining player for two more, including our presumed 3B of the next half decade.  And we'll have the original two pieces of trade bait back at cheaper prices when the Orioles will be making their run at contention.

Not bad, Andy MacPhail. Not bad at all. 

(edit  from duck - And no, the fact that I and SeanP are the only two (before today) who included Miggy in the lineup card game doesn't make me that much happier. OK, it does. But still... I CALLED IT!)

Whaddya think, T-Bone? Will Dave be able to find me a lot of at bats this year? (© Andrew Markowitz)

View full size photo »

There has been a lot of discussion this off-season about the 2010 roles of Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie. Both showed a lot of promise in 2009 and both, I think, deserve a shot to prove themselves on a regular basis at the big league level. Unfortunately there are but three outfield positions and Nick Markakis and Adam Jones already have two of them. So what to do with Reimold and Pie?

According to Steve Melewski, the decision has been made that Nolan Reimold is the everyday left fielder and Felix Pie will have to find another way to get at bats. From his Dave Trembley:

"Our outfield is Reimold, Jones and Markakis and Pie gives us some flexibility being able to play center and left. Reimold could DH some vs. left-handed pitching. I don't see it as a competitive thing coming into spring training. Both guys (Reimold and Pie) are on the club, my job is to get them at bats and keep them fresh.

"We were impressed with Pie last year. But there is not a competition for the left field spot. Pie will find his way into the lineup quite a bit."

So there it is. Trembley has spoken. Before I go into my opinion on the entire thing, let me say that this is a good problem to have. Gone are the days of Brandon Fahey roaming left field and Jay Payton grousing in the dugout while sporting an OPS+ of 72. It's tough seeing that Pie won't get out there as much as I think he should be, but I dig that the reason is because there is someone else who deserves it as much as he does. If only we had that problem in the infield.

Continue reading this post »

I have examined the Orioles schedule this year and I can say with certainty that it is whack. In their first 28 games, the Orioles play 21 against the AL East with TWELVE consecutive games against the Yankees and Red Sox. That has disaster potential, frankly. The Orioles might be so far back in the standings on May 5th that all positive energy will already be gone.

Because the scheduling gods like to mess with the Orioles even more, they open up the month of June with nine more straight games against the Red Sox and Yankees. Thankfully that's followed by everyone's favorite time of year: interleague! This year the Orioles will face the Mets, Marlins, and Nationals at home and the Giants, Padres, and Nationals on the road. I advise the O's to watch out for Aubrey Huff in that Giants series; he just loves to demolish his former teams. If the O's are going to climb out of the hole they'll surely find themselves in on June 10th, interleague play seems like a pretty decent way to get there.

For those of you who like to make the trip to see the O's play the Yankees/Red Sox (or who, like me, prefer to avoid Camden Yards on those days), there are only three weekend series against those two teams this year. Boston will be in town the weekends of April 30th to May 2 and June 4-6 and the Yankees will play in Baltimore September 17-19. The other three series against the teams will be played mid-week and two will be during the school year (The Red Sox play 31 Aug - 2 Sept, I'm not sure when school starts in Northern Virginia Massachusetts)

Except for interleague and a stretch in of games in May between the Yankees/Red Sox extravaganzas, the schedule looks pretty daunting. I guess that'll happen when you're one of the worst teams in baseball and play in one of the best divisions.

A balanced schedule, a balanced schedule, my kingdom for a balanced schedule!

The 2010 Marcel Projections have been released and I pulled out all the Orioles and have listed them below. Marcel projections are one of the more simple projections, based on the three year average of the player regressing to the mean and with age factored in. For more details or projections for non-Orioles, clicky clicky.

The projections for the rookies are going to look at little wonky since there isn't as much data on which to base their information, which is why they have a low reliability factor. I was going to figure in the triple slash numbers for the hitters but ran out of time. Perhaps I'll add them in later.

Enjoy.

Hitters

Look for the pitching projections below the jump

Continue reading this post »