Who's pumped for the 2008 Orioles?

by SC on Dec 29, 2007 2:41 AM EST in News

Granted, we have some time to make moves still, but I was asked by Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus to send in what I thought would be the starters at this moment for next year's O's. Take a good, hard look at these guys with their names all together.

C: Ramon Hernandez
1B: Kevin Millar
2B: Brian Roberts
3B: Melvin Mora
SS: Luis Hernandez
LF: Luke Scott
CF: Jay Payton
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Aubrey Huff

SP: Erik Bedard
SP: Jeremy Guthrie
SP: Daniel Cabrera
SP: Adam Loewen?
SP: Garrett Olson? Troy Patton? Matt Albers?

CL: Jamie Walker, I guess

My God. Some rebuilding. Exactly one of the starting nine could be considered a young talent, and he's also the only one I'm certain will put up above average production. I'm fairly sure on Roberts, too, but a prolonged slump is hardly out of the question with him. It wasn't but 2006 when he was struggling to maintain league average offense.

The rotation past Bedard could be a trainwreck the likes of which even we have not seen. Or it could be fairly solid. Who knows?

My real problem, though, is that this rebuilding is only sort of in motion. I mean, I know it takes time to even get these things kickstarted, but we're a ways off. The starting nine is stacked with declining (or worse) oldsters (Ramon, Millar, Mora, Payton, Huff), and the best we could really hope for out of Luke Scott is "pretty good," I figure. I do prefer him as the starting left fielder to, well, anyone that's started in left for us in recent years, but that's not saying much when the competition includes Brandon Fahey and Ed Rogers. The best we can hope for from Hernandez is that he hits .250/.300/.350, probably.

It is not too hard to see this team being a complete and utter disaster, taking our losing to a new level. The silver lining is that MacPhail does seem to have something resembling a vision or even a useful agenda. But if this group lost 100 or even 10 more than that, I wouldn't be shocked.

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2009 first draft pick baby!

I think Roberts and Bedard will be gone. Did the Mets ever pick up a catcher? Razor Ramon might make sense for them. The rotation could be really good next year if Bedard is kept. Bedard and Guthrie formed a great 1, 2 punch last year. Can't see why that wouldn't be the case in 2008. Cabrera seems like the type of guy to have to up and down career. I imagine he'll perform something like his 2005 season, nothing special but he'll eat up a lot of inning at something close to league average. If the O's were any good, I would say push Cabera out of the rotation and use him as insurance, but at this point who cares. Loewen will probably be something like early Erik Bedard, doesn't pitch deep into games, control is a bit off, but he's perfectly useable for the back of rotation. The offense and bullpen will be among the league worst. Walker and Bradford should really be dealt. That Dennis guy from the Stros trade might be able to close although his control is apparently terrible. Along with him and Fernando Cabrera, the late innings are going to be really fun. I'm guessing the O's and A's will fight it out for the worst record in the AL next year esepecially if Blanton is dealt.

by birdman on Dec 29, 2007 3:19 AM EST 0 recs

re:

Bedard and Guthrie formed a great 1, 2 punch last year. Can't see why that wouldn't be the case in 2008.

Because Guthrie's numbers are reliant on two fabulous months (1.78 ERA in May, 1.69 in June) and he faded pretty badly down the stretch. Plus, he's 29 in April and it had been years since he'd been good.

Cabrera seems like the type of guy to have to up and down career.

I wish he'd get to the "up."

Loewen will probably be something like early Erik Bedard, doesn't pitch deep into games, control is a bit off, but he's perfectly useable for the back of rotation.

Loewen's control has always been more than a "bit" off.

I'm not even arguing with you so much as pointing out the other side -- like I said, the rotation could be hideous or could be perfectly fine.

Thanks for the time that you've given me...

by SC on Dec 29, 2007 8:00 AM EST up 0 recs

re

"he faded pretty badly down the stretch."

Yeah, but he was injured (right?), give the dude a break. He might have pitching through an injury in August before he finally gave in to the DL in September. And age 29 seasons aren't usually a problem point for pitchers. Plus he might have tired a bit towards the end. I'm still a big believer in Guthrie.

"I wish he'd get to the 'up.'"

Remember, my definition of up for him involves an ERA+ of 96.

"Loewen's control has always been more than a "bit" off."

Yeah that's true, but I remember Bedard's control wasn't particularly stellar his first season. But, of course, Bedard's control was excellent in the minors unlike our boy Loewen. Hopefully, Loewen can contribute to the rotation though. At the very least, he's shown a trend of getting better every season despite tougher competition.

by birdman on Dec 29, 2007 2:56 PM EST up 0 recs

re:

Remember, my definition of up for him involves an ERA+ of 96.

That's some shitty 'up,' my friend. But I know what you mean.

Thanks for the time that you've given me...

by SC on Dec 29, 2007 6:59 PM EST up 0 recs

d-cab

"That's some shitty 'up,' my friend."

fuck yeah it is. we should come up with a drinking game every time Cabrera starts. he walks a guy, you drink, he throws a wild pitch, that's a social toast, he throws at somebody's head, you slam whatever left in your beverage. by the fifth inning, you're good to go. this way when f. cabrera and sarfate come in in the 7th and 8th, it's not so bad anymore.

by birdman on Dec 30, 2007 4:38 AM EST up 0 recs

oh man

The Daniel Cabrera Drinking Game could be awesome.

I recommend it only for Friday and Saturday starts, probably.

Thanks for the time that you've given me...

by SC on Dec 30, 2007 5:11 AM EST up 0 recs

Alcohol poisoning is NO JOKE

It's just a question of arrogant self-entitlement against drunken limp-dicked self-loathing--DaBB

by zknower on Dec 30, 2007 10:35 PM EST up 0 recs

Well

I think a lot of those veterans will be gone by the trading deadline this year, if not sooner. We have to hope that guys like Huff, Hernandez, Millar and Mora have good enough seasons to make other teams interested in them by late July. Trading that kind of mediocrity is a tough sell during the offseason, but becomes more manageable during the regular season when various contenders try to fill gaping holes in their lineup with something resembling quality.

Given the utter blindness of the front office to the organization's problems over the last decade, it's going to take more than one offseason to clean out the closet and rebuild. Right now MacPhail is focused on trading the team's best players for talent...guys like Millar and Payton are not a top priority, because they won't bring much in return and because the organization doesn't really have better options at those positions anyway.

by crawjo on Dec 29, 2007 12:15 PM EST 0 recs

Worst team in the American League, no problem

The Orioles were terrible last year and look on paper like they'll be even worse this year. I can see the White Sox plummeting next year and the Rangers and Royals will be pretty bad, but barring some amazing moves I still expect the Orioles to be the worst team in the American League. They'll be lucky not lose 100 games.

by yurizanow on Dec 29, 2007 12:31 PM EST 0 recs

I don't care if they lose 100 games

As long as we see some sort of direction. MacPhail has said that this team won't be able to compete until 2010, so we're looking at two (more) years of crap. That's a long time to just have faith that it's working, though. I think if the Tejada trade is the only big move this off season, my faith will falter. I don't think it will be the only move, but still.

Even if Bedard and Roberts aren't traded (which I'd guess at least one of them will be), if MacPhail manages to shed some of our dead weight (Mora, Payton, Millar, Huff), I'll consider that a sign that he knows what he's doing.

by Stacey on Dec 29, 2007 12:52 PM EST 0 recs

I agree

In fact, if they finally hit indisputable rock bottom (not that they haven't been there for ten years, but some people in the organization still don't seem to think so) it won't be possible to deny reality any longer and finally do something about it.

It seems like they're already moving in that direction, but it may get a lot worse before it gets any better.

by yurizanow on Dec 29, 2007 1:29 PM EST up 0 recs

It probably needs to get worse...

...before it gets better. Obviously MacPhail wants to build with youth. Usually that means sucking hind tit for a couple of years while you learn what you've got among all your prospects, who you can deal, who you need to lock up, etc etc. If it means watching a bunch of young guys, the team drafting and trading well, and saving money till a couple of shrewd free agent signings can actually make a difference, then I am all for it. It would be a welcome change from the parade of mediocre (and worse) band aid signings and deals this team has dealt in for the past decade.

by KenDixonFanClub on Dec 29, 2007 2:18 PM EST up 0 recs

Yeah....

I've been saying for the last couple of years that the "Thank God for Tampa Bay" thing is a trap & maybe the best thing for the team's future would be to finish dead last, a wake-up call. On the other hand, MacPhail does seem to get it already. Of course we've also got Trembly talking about how good the lineup looks to him, the same sort of stuff we've heard from the FO for years. Everyone seems to agree it's better to suck young than old, even to suck worse. The reality is that even somebody who is 29 is likely to be in decline by the time the team has a chance to be good.

"Killing a Yankee fan -- is that illegal in this state?" -- Homicide Life on the Street

by BirdFanLA on Dec 29, 2007 7:31 PM EST up 0 recs

I'm not taking any stock in Trembley's words

The dude has got to keep the clubhouse in order, and making off season comments about how shitty your current lineup is isn't the way to do it.

by Stacey on Dec 30, 2007 1:54 PM EST up 0 recs

re:

It's more that we've heard company line bullshit for so long from evey manager and Mike Flanagan, with his eternal optimism. Gawrsh, I 'spect if we cud jist stay HEALTHY, this'd be a real daisy of a ballteam!

No. You made a shitty team. Get over it.

It's not really Dave's fault that it annoys some of us. He wasn't the one doing it forever.

Thanks for the time that you've given me...

by SC on Dec 30, 2007 3:08 PM EST up 0 recs

Food for thought

This is gonna sound crazy...but let's chew on it for a few:

The team shown above could be better than the 2007 Orioles.

I know it sounds nuts but ponder these points.

Luke Scott has been a better offensive player than Miguel Tejada in his (admittedly limited) ABs the past two seasons.
Luis Hernandez while certainly shitty at the plate is a far better defensive SS than Tejada.
The rotation shown above, with, let's say Patton in the 5 spot, could easily be better than what we rolled out there in 2007.

I know it ain't Spring Training yet...but I want to get the optimism ball rolling early this year.

Friend of the Working Man

by Jonnypops on Dec 29, 2007 2:59 PM EST 0 recs

The team shown above could be better than the 2007

Hell no, if Tejada is the only player traded in the offseason, then maybe I can see another 70-92 season. But there's a high probability Bedard and Roberts will be gone. And there's a chance Millar and Razor Ramon will be gone as well. Their replacements could easily be well below league average for their position (think Garrett Olson, Luis Luis, Brandon Fahey, Scott Moore, and Guillermo Quiroz). That roster equals a 62-100 record if not worse.

by birdman on Dec 29, 2007 3:18 PM EST up 0 recs

Scott Moore

I wouldn't mind him playing, really.

Thanks for the time that you've given me...

by SC on Dec 29, 2007 6:56 PM EST up 0 recs

re:

Luke Scott has been a better offensive player than Miguel Tejada in his (admittedly limited) ABs the past two seasons.

I worry about Scott as a full-time guy because he's 30 and hasn't done that on the major league level yet. But he'll be our best left fielder since Surhoff.

Thanks for the time that you've given me...

by SC on Dec 29, 2007 6:58 PM EST up 0 recs

key dates from last year

read and try not to vomit

sincerely
-- t.w.O.

by thewaywardO on Dec 30, 2007 11:40 AM EST 0 recs

2008 Orioles

I purchased a 4-game Holiday plan which includes opening day tickets. I expect the O's to make a few more moves to establish a rebuilding team chock full of juicy prospects for me to root for in '08.

by RobG on Dec 31, 2007 9:48 AM EST 0 recs