I can't help myself...

by zknower on Jan 30, 2008 10:56 PM EST in News Comment 74 comments

...I'm posting another update. Sorry to keep the hot stove burning, but when the source is MLB.com, and you read three things you hadn't heard before, I think it's at least blogworthy.

The article was written by Jim Street, and posted at 7:47pm Wednesday night.

Among the items:

The Orioles are pursuing a last-ditch attempt to sign Bedard to an extension. Angelos called Bedard personally Sunday night to discuss a five-year contract.
In previous extension talks, Bedard's agent asked for 7 years, $100M, and the Orioles countered with a three-year deal. Yes, that's right, they countered with a three-year deal. Now I guess they're meeting in the middle.
MacPhail says he doesn't give two figs about the Santana deal, with respect to its effect on the Bedard talks.
UPDATE (per ESPN.com, as reported by Javylicious in the thread below): Bedard's agent vehemently denies that Bedard will enter into contract discussions with Baltimore.

There' also some unsubstantiated discussion of the whole "Jones hip" imbroglio, and a speculation that if the contract extension doesn't get done, the Seattle deal will go through for Jones, Sherrill, Tillman, and one or two other minor leaguers.

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C'mon extension!

(and Bye-Bye B-Rob!)

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 30, 2008 11:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Are you high?

On the crack cocaine?

Our fans are better than yours.

by OEutaw on Jan 31, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No.

See comments below.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you J-Pops

Trying to keep the faith alive that we're not going to lose Bedard.

C'MON, LET'S SIGN HIM!!!

by Bluehen on Jan 31, 2008 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, No

Deal him Deal him Deal him please...

Tom Murphy: The Secret weapon of the '99 Orioles.

by Baltimo on Jan 30, 2008 11:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If

we can get the extension, I've always advocated signing him. This is the type of player you dream of coming out of your own system and then being able to keep throughout his prime years. Given the odds of how the players rumored to be part of the Seattle package will turn out, we'd be crazy not to sign Bedard to a 5 year deal. Crazy. It's real nice to talk about prospects and everything...and if that's all we can get, fine. But a Bird in hand is worth more than this deal the M's are peddling, assuming we can hold onto him.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 30, 2008 11:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Injuries

Bedard's injury history doesn't bother you a little bit? What if you sign him to a five-year deal and he puts up so-so numbers through various injuries and so forth, while Jones becomes a 40-homer center fielder? I'd say that outcome is every bit as likely as Bedard remaining a stud for five years and Jones never panning out, maybe even more likely.

by crawjo on Jan 31, 2008 12:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Erik Bedard has been elevated to surefire Hall of Famer.

Gone but not forgotten...

by SC on Jan 31, 2008 12:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

All hail him. All hail Bedard!

He is my new god.

Much of what is being suggested is conjecture and speculation. He could become the most dominating pitcher in the game, Jones could be a dud. Bedard could have a blow out and be out of baseball by the All-Star break and Jones could develop into a roberto clemente-esque beast. Bedard could have a heart attack... We can go about this forever.

by Dr Orpheus on Jan 31, 2008 2:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There is

a vast difference between hitting 25 HR in AAA and putting up the sort of numbers Bedard did the last two seasons in the AL. Bedard has proven big league talent. Period. He's not a sure thing, nobody is, but he's a better bet than hoping on a prospect to pan out.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 7:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, but

I'm afraid that your logic would really prevent the Orioles from ever rebuilding. The bottom line is that the franchise needs players. It needs Grade A prospects, it needs ordinary major leaguers, and it needs people to fill in the minor league system who could be called up when necessary.

At this point, I'm much more confident that the Orioles system can find enough starting pitching to remain competitive than I am confident that it can put a quality lineup out there day after day. Yes, in an ideal world it would be great to have Erik Bedard in his prime in an Orioles uniform. The problem is that having an ace through his best years only makes sense if you are going to be competitive. The Orioles are at least, at least, two years away from that, and without a major infusion of talent into the system I don't see much rebuilding happening. That's why the best move is to trade your best player for the most bounty you can get. Remember, it's five players (reportedly) not a one-for-one deal. The other players are not non-entities.

by crawjo on Jan 31, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We got youth

for Miggy, while clearing payroll, and we can get more for Roberts. Players who it makes much more sense to trade. There's too much sentiment here taking the "Burning Down the House" approach to rebuilding. Bedard is a keeper, IF he wants to be kept.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

What's the likelihood that one of those two prospects is Carlos Triunfel?

by Dr Orpheus on Jan 30, 2008 11:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hmmmm

I would say about the same as me buying a powerball ticket and winning, but we can all dream for it cant we?

by Reddrummer9187 on Jan 31, 2008 12:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey...

I'm dreaming of a planet full of unicorns.

by Dr Orpheus on Jan 31, 2008 2:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

keep dreaming

if that dreaming gets us Triunfel then i'm right there with the unicorns as well.

by Reddrummer9187 on Jan 31, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

tony butler

is the real jewel of this trade, he is gonna be an ace

by marinerfan on Jan 31, 2008 1:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

re;

A personal conversation huh? You think Bedard is smart enough not to buy whatever bill of goods Angelos tries to sell him? All the BS about improving the team and how he really means it this fourth or fifth time around?

"This is Birdland"

by drj on Jan 31, 2008 8:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

5 years O's still sucking so why

??? why waste the money Bedard alone isn't going to improve the O's that much, I say get what you can now, develop players and when the time is right spend! no need keeping a guy that won't help anytime soon

by merdon1332000 on Jan 31, 2008 8:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

oh Peter, back to your old tricks!

I don't want Bedard to leave. I wish that it made sense to sign him to an extension, but it just doesn't. Yeah, trading him isn't a sure thing, but keeping him, even if he continues to pitch the way he did in 2007, won't help the Orioles. They have GOT to stock their roster and minor leagues with young players with potential, and they'll only be able to do that by trading away their good players, or by waiting 10 years.

Well, this winter brilliantly encapsulates the problem at the top that's made the O's sort of a joke franchise for roughly a decade now. ~Rob Neyer

by Stacey on Jan 31, 2008 8:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed...

I hear ya, Javy.
The Orioles stink with or without Bedard next year and the year after. Trading Bedard for some talented young players seems to be the wise move.

by RobG on Jan 31, 2008 9:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm afraid you're right

In the past I've said to sign him to an extension if you can, but looking at the M's package it seems that it is more likely to pay off for the team in the long run.

If we're lucky, MacPhail can spin the extension talks into a slightly better offer from the M's.

by silverstadium on Jan 31, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

How does not having a top tier Starter not help the Orioles? I realize we've all assumed he didn't want an extension, and have gotten into trade mode, but having top flight starting pitching is the most important thing to have in this game. Let's not lose sight of that. I agree we need to stock our roster and I'm cool with trading Roberts to help do that more. But you DO NOT let top tier starters get away if you don't have to. EVER. NEVER EVER EVER. Did we not learn anything from losing Mussina?

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE:

What I learned from Mussina is that you trade your valuable chips away when they are at peak value if you aren't ready to compete; rather than leave through FA.

Bedard may help the Orioles win 73 games instead of 67; but to me that is still a failure. Even if everything goes perfectly; I don't see how this team being anywhere near competitive before 2010; so why pay for a top flight player before then?

We need to really get our franchise loaded with prospects and young players; and I don't see that happeneing by adding what we would get for Roberts to what we already have.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, what he said

That's what happens when I get called off to do actual work in the middle of ranting about the Orioles. Someone more concise says what I was thinking :)

Well, this winter brilliantly encapsulates the problem at the top that's made the O's sort of a joke franchise for roughly a decade now. ~Rob Neyer

by Stacey on Jan 31, 2008 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE:

It's the benefit of being an idle consultant.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

First off

given the normal trajectory of an Ace pitcher's career, the next 5 years will be Bedard's prime, not his decline. This would project him to be an extremely valuable piece up till the 2012 season. Your argument makes perfect sense assuming he'll walk when his contract control is up. Other than that we're trading for prospects who we'd be very luck if 2 become Major Leaguers, not even good ones, just Major Leaguer ballplayers. The possibility of one becoming as valuable as Bedard, let's face it, is low. We've traded Tejada for prospects. I advocate trading Roberts to the Cubbies as well. But if Bedard will sign, we need to do it.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE:

Well, two of the guys that are being talked about are already ML players (granted, one's value to O's is somewhat limited). Obviously, everything is a gamble. We don't know what Bedard is going to be in 5 years either. But I think that the chances are that some combination of the prospects we would get for Bedard would be somewhere around the value for the O's that Bedard has in 4 years.

When you then add in the fact that we wouldn't be paying big money for Bedard, so we would have additional flexibility to add FA if/when we become competitive AND that these players would still have years left before FA; it makes trading Bedard seem like the logical move.

Let's not forget, Bedard is no sure thing here. It's not like we are talking about Webb or Oswalt who have years of success and high inning counts.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No way.

As you say, Sherrill doesn't even belong in this conversation, he is a non-entity as far as we're concerned pretending to be a carrot in this deal.

We have no basis to think Jones will become as valuable to us as Bedard. Is he intriguing? Sure. But John Sickels characterizes him as "Mike Cameron without the walks". This is what we're banking on here?

Lastly the other parts of the deal are complete question marks. A hard throwing 19 year old? How many of those do we have right now? And some relief prospects.

This is the type of deal I'm reticent to even accept if Bedard flat out refuses to extend. If he wants to extend it's frankly, pretty ridiculous to even consider.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE:

I'm not saying that Jones is going to be as valuable as Bedard; I'm saying that the combination of Jones and the other prospects would likely be as valuable to this team as Bedard.

We can't compete with Sox, Yanks by adding guys who are proven quality players. We don't have the money to do that. The only we are going to compete, in my opinion, is to add as many question marks as possible in the hope that as many as possible work out.

It's only hope; but it's better sticking with the status quo; with little chance we will never be able to compete.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Question marks

are fine in return for a 2B and SS. They are not fine in return for a Top Flight Lefty Starter who will most likely be excellent 5 years from now. Not fine at all. And we can always trade him later should we get the extension and the situation warrants. For considerably more than this underwhelming deal, I might add.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Word.

Gone, but still haunting us all.

by zknower on Jan 31, 2008 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE:

I don't really agree with that. I think question marks are fine in return for anyone if you get enough of them that have a high enough ceiling. And we are talking about a 29 year old pitcher who has managed to pitch a full season exactly 1 year.

But I really think you are ignoring the money issue. We are going to be paying Bedard for years in order to just finish a little bit closer to 500. Wasted money for me. I would much rather take in the guys that are playing for close to nothing; hope that a few of them work out; and then take that Bedard money and add players when we become competitive.

There are going to be other very good pitchers that come along. I would rather revisit adding and paying for a top flight pitcher when we are actually competitive.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am ignoring the money issue.

Pitching is worth it. A Top Flight Lefty Starter with that kinda K-Rate is a "Sign Here" sort of equation. If they don't spend their money on that, A FO has no business being in baseball.

As to your other points, these prospects don't have that high a ceiling. We're not talking about Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp over here. We're not talking about Jay Bruce. We're not talking about Phil Hughes or Jacoby Ellsbury. So what exactly are we handing over one of the BEST players in baseball for? Aside from fears that is?

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE:

I think a FO has to recognize there is a time to sign top flight pitchers and there is a time to rebuild. If it's time to rebuild, you don't do it half ass. And if they are not trading top flight players (even pitchers) that are 2 years away from FA, then in my opinion you are doing it half ass.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why does this

2 years away from FA keep coming up? We're assuming an extension is possible here, that's the hypothetical. If you're going rebuild, you do it smart. This should not be "Let's hit the reset button and see where the cards fall". The criteria cannot be "Will this player get me a return?", the criteria must be "Will this player be a valuable piece throughout the next five years and how replaceable are they?". The answers to those questions with Bedard are YES and Not Very. That being the case, an extension is a given IF he will sign.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE:

It keeps coming up because it's true; and more importantly Bedard and his agent knows it's true. Whatever FA years the Orioles buy out, are going to have to approach free market value. Bedard may give the O's a slight discount, but we aren't going to get arbitration rates here.

As for the criteria; I think the criteria should be "Does this make me more likely to have success, however you want to define that". To me, signing an extension to me makes me believe we are less likely to have success in the future, not more likely.

And sorry to argue semantics, I wouldn't say that Bedard is going to be a valuable THROUGHOUT the next 5 years. If he manages to show the ability to pitch in year in and year out at his current level for complete seasons, then he could be valuable in 3 or 4 years. That's a huge if; and that's also assuming enough of our existing prospects work out to form a team around him; which without getting a bunch more prospects I think is somewhat of a long shot.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

An injury issue

seems a legit argument. If I felt he was going to be a serious injury risk, I'd say take that crappy Seattle package too rather than hold onto a burgeoning superstar. But I don't feel that way. He's pitched over 180 innings the past 2 seasons, which is no sure thing, but it's a risk I'll take.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Crappy???

I just don't see how you can describe the package as "Crappy". Mariners minor league pitcher of the year, solid reliever (yeah, I know), a 22 year old ML ready OF; who everyone calls a stud, plus 1 or 2 - 3 star prospects.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The pitcher is 19.

You want to talk about an injury risk?

The reliever should not be mentioned in the thread again. He is a non-entity.

Jones is the centerpiece, and sure, he could be good. But I'm not sold on him alone. Sorry.

And who are these three star prospects? I saw the names of some minor league relievers.

Seriously, I'm not too into this deal if Bedard refuses to extend. If he wants to extend it's frankly ridiculous.

Hey, come to think of it. Would any of you folks who think this is a good deal we're getting from the M's be interested in a house my fam's selling in the Detroit area? I would LOVE to sit down and negotiate with you. The Housing Market's hot up there now, you know.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we can learn from Mussina

Just not what you want me to learn. Mussina walked and all we got was a draft pick. Maybe we should have traded HIM.

You're right, the Orioles as currently constructed are much worse without Erik Bedard. But the Orioles as currently constructed WITH Erik Bedard still suck. And the fastest way to transform the roster is to trade him. Let's say we sign him to a 5 year extension, thus buying out three years of his free agency. How long will it take for the Orioles to become competitive without having any young, promising talent on the team? Can we do it in five years? Four years? If so, and even if Erik continues to dominate, now the Orioles are competitive with an Erik Bedard who has already peaked while the Orioles sucked.

I love Bedard. I don't buy the media crap about him being an asshole, and even if I did, I don't care about that stuff anyway. It's hard for me to say that I want him traded because I love watching him pitch and I love that the Orioles have a player like him. But other than him, Roberts is our only player of real value, and I don't think just trading Roberts will be enough.

Well, this winter brilliantly encapsulates the problem at the top that's made the O's sort of a joke franchise for roughly a decade now. ~Rob Neyer

by Stacey on Jan 31, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We do

have young promising talent in the organization and we can get more from Roberts. What everyone is forgetting here is that the Seattle offer is not so great. Realistically, it's at best a lateral move, if it's being compared to an extension. Sherrill is a 30 year old reliever, Tillman is a 19 year old kid who throws hard - this is not prospect manna in the promised land. The best we can hope for is Jones to pan out into being a star, but that is speculation. And if he does we've traded a top flight starter for a good outfielder.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

What is all this promising young talent? As I understand it, Wieters is the only one projected as a sure thing. Rowell has potential. Theres's not a lot else in the field. Liz, Erbe, Johnson, Olsen, Penn, etc. Which of them is a sure thing? I don't see this talent coming up through the system to surround Bedard.

"This is Birdland"

by drj on Jan 31, 2008 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE:

I disagree; I think we can hope for more than Jones becoming a star. The other guys here are not throw away prospects. Tillman is rated as a 4 star prospect who if things work out projects to a #2 starter according to Baseball Prospectus. About Butler; they have: "Butler's ceiling is as an above-average, star-level rotation stalwart."

Obviously, these are ceilings and the world is full of prospects that end up pumping gas; but you would have to hope that one of these guys works out.

If every high level prospect the Orioles have or get don't work out than obviously we can't compete; but you have to take that gamble.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

More ammunition for dealing Bedard

From my point of view, this Hardball Times article on the Santana trade (if you can get through the technical stuff) justifies making the Bedard deal as well.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-bright-side-of-losing-santana/

Yeah, we are getting a 30 year old reliever as part of the deal, but everyone else is a prospect, two or three of whom are quite good.

by silverstadium on Jan 31, 2008 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

I hate seeing good pitching walk out the door. We all do. It's a shame the O's have been inept and find themselves in this situation. But can you also admit there is a flip side worth considering?

The Orioles need talent. Bedard is by far their best bargaining chip and is likely to bring in said talent. His value is likely at or near a high point. You get one "A" prospect a couple "B's" and hope the scouting department can pick a diamond in the rough. You pick up guys that fill some desperate needs (OF, SS, 2B, pitching).

The alternative is keep Bedard and pick up the desperate needs elsewhere. Where? Roberts may bring one, but he's not nearly as valuable as Bedard. Do the O's pick these guys up in the draft and wait three or so years? Do they trade the young pitching? Will they all gel by the time Bedard's four years (let's assume four) run out?

There's no clear cut answer. If Bedard goes, we have to hope the O's pick the right crop of players. It's not an unreasonable thought.

"This is Birdland"

by drj on Jan 31, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why is this even a discussion?

Keeping Bedard fixes one problem - and only one problem - with this team. It also spikes your payroll by ensuring that you'll be dipping into the FA market to flesh out your lineup with no guarantee of the playoffs.

Trading Bedard addresses multiple problems, lessens the payroll, gives you a lot of youthful potential, and allows you to flesh out your lineup from within until the team is ready to compete, needing only a few final FA pieces.

Basically, if we keep him, we better be willing to go toe-to-toe with the MFY's and the RedSux in the payroll department. (which we obviously are not) Otherwise, there's no effing point.

Our fans are better than yours.

by OEutaw on Jan 31, 2008 11:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

it's all for fun here

Most likely Bedard laughs and says no friggin' way I continue to play for this franchise. He's essentially said that to date.

"This is Birdland"

by drj on Jan 31, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE

Except for his grumblings last week.

Bedard is really one odd bird who's difficult to get a read on.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bedard is gone

espn has two new articles up today with quotes from bedards agent saying that the o's trying to sign bedard to an extension is completely untrue. there is also an article on there from buster olney stating that the o's and mariners could clear a hurdle on the trade today. basically the o's want the mariners FO to sign documents saying if and only if jones clears the physical will the trade go through, so looks like the trade is bound to happen, making me wonder..who's the opening day starter???

Some people ask me what I do during winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Roger Hornsby

by dulak8 on Jan 31, 2008 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Opening day starter

Guts

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DANNY CABS, BAY-BEE

Gone, but still haunting us all.

by zknower on Jan 31, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed completely...

except for "... with no guarantee of the playoffs." I would replace "guarantee" with "hope".

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the ridiculous assumption here

is that prospects = the promised land.

Seattle's prospect package is not impressive.
If you can think of a more valuable commodity than an Ace Left Starter, let me know.
We've already traded Miguel and we should trade B-Rob for the youth you're talking about - not the Staff Ace with good years ahead of him.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE:

My assumption:

No prospects = No Promised land

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

The farm system is getting better but still rather shallow. How does it get built up in a hurry so those players can contribute to a good club that coincides with Bedard's (hopefully) prime next few years?

"This is Birdland"

by drj on Jan 31, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

uhhh, hm

I'd like to pitch in but I don't want to respond to 10 different things so I'll just do this.

It is never a bad idea to sign someone as good as Bedard.
I do question, however, if it's really worth it. Does this team then build around Bedard? They've proven before they don't build around their best players, they just patch holes and pray.
If we had kept Mike Mussina instead of letting him walk, would we have been contenders during those years, or would we have won, at best, a few more games every season?
My point is, signing Erik Bedard and trading Miguel Tejada can't be all the team does. And it's sort of a doofy way of going about rebuilding, too. It shows a lack of commitment to really getting in there and getting their hands dirty.

"I don't want to count on prospects to pan out!" is a really shitty way to look at rebuilding a team. Giving these guys a serious chance from Opening Day is kind of how it works. We did it with Nick Markakis straight out of Double-A, and after a few early bumps, that's worked out. We gave Jeremy Guthrie a shot, and that worked out.

There is no lack of ML-ready pitching talent in this organization now, which sounds odd to say considering we're the fuckin' Orioles, but it's the truth. Whether you think they'll pan out or not isn't even the point; how do you find out if you don't let them play?

Patton, Olson and Albers are all as ready as they're going to get. Liz isn't too far behind them. Hayden Penn still exists, lest we forget The Case of John Maine, a pitcher the organization gave up on.

Combined with Cabrera and his "innings eating," Guthrie and Loewen (as much a wild card as Patton, Olson, Albers, Penn or even Liz, raelly), that's plenty of guys to fill out the rotation. Burres can do it.

We're going to suck this year and likely next either way. I'm not against signing Erik Bedard to an extension, even though I think it's mildly reckless.

If this was a free agent, would you not be concerned with the fact that he's 29 and has never hit 200 innings and has only had a season and a half of excellent pitching after years of being a letdown? If this was a free agent wanting seven years and $100 million (which would be an awful idea, really, so I'm glad the Orioles aren't budging past five), would you not consider that the last time the Orioles gave out a big contract, it was Miguel Tejada, and then they screwed the pooch on trying to make a team around a prize signing?

Erik Bedard is a hell of a good player. If he stays, then great, we've got an ace as part of our building block, and hopefully this version of the shitheel front office won't wash their hands of DOING ANYTHING for the next three years after signing him. If he's traded, then great, welcome to Baltimore, Adam Jones. Hit some dongs.

I'm as content to see Guthrie, Cabrera, Loewen and two of our other guys as I am to see Bedard's 45 out there next year. And vice versa.

Gone but not forgotten...

by SC on Jan 31, 2008 11:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

also, one more thing

The reason I think some of you are afeared of the prospect gabmle is because you've been watching Orioles "prospects." You have to realize that those guys weren't prospects in most other farm systems. Our fifth best prospect in a lot of years the last decade wouldn't have cracked the top 20 in many other organizations. We've drafted for shit, developed poorly, and dicked around with chumps like Tim Raines, Jr., Ed Rogers, and Keith Reed.

Gone but not forgotten...

by SC on Jan 31, 2008 11:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

RE:

And to be fair, the Orioles have been somewhat unlucky as well. We have had guys that most people considered solid prospects, but never did anything.

I also remember when we had a trio of young solid pitcher prospects; Loewen, Penn, and Maine. Maine was generally considered the lesser of the 3. We saw how that worked out. I still believe in Loewen, but Maine has been the only to show so far that he can be a decent ML pitcher.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes, but was that "bad luck",

or was Maine a case of "bad people doing the evaluating"?

IIRC, lots of teams wanted Loewen or Penn over Maine.

Gone, but still haunting us all.

by zknower on Jan 31, 2008 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

we have yet to see how that worked out. penn and loewen were both high schoolers or teenagers when drafted and maine was a collge kid. if your comment refers simply to trading him, yeah, o's fucked that up, but if the suggestion is that maine is superior to loewen and penn, we just don't know.

So, I said, uh, lama: how about a little something for the effort?

by jq higgins on Jan 31, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE: True

I was just saying that Maine was essentially a throw-in in the Benson deal. When the deal was made, the 3 were considered the near ML ready prospects in the organization, with Maine being the least valuable. Penn has come up several times and either gotten injured or drilled. Loewen has been hurt.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 31, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

this is a good point

Here's my question. How much of that has changed?

Matt Weiters aside, if we get 3-4 solid prospects in deals for Bedard and Roberts, that still leaves a bunch of holes to fill.

Are our scouting department and minor league affiliates up to the task? I know we're putting more emphasis on development, recruiting, and drafting than we have in the past, but how quickly will we catch up?

I'm genuinely asking those of you who follow this better than I do. I don't know the answer.

Gone, but still haunting us all.

by zknower on Jan 31, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know either.

But I'd feel a hell of lot better if those people did their thing in the minors with the folks we got for Miguel and get for Roberts while we have an Ace Lefty Starter to help them youngun's win some fucking games in a couple years. I'm cool with Baby Birds but we need to mix this up some and have some vets not named Melvin Mora, Jay, or Aubrey Huff on the team. Jesus.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

If you were a baseball exec, you'd better know how long it will take (in the sense that you better have a timeline). I hope MacPhail does.

As I see it, you'd bolster your argument if you'd compliment it by explaining how the O's will bubble up the young talent to compliment Bedard. Let's say it has to happen in 3-4 years. The system isn't deep now. Drafting is a real crap shoot and it takes years. There aren't many other trading chips. I'm having trouble seeing it all pull together, expect via the FA route.

"This is Birdland"

by drj on Jan 31, 2008 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Would I know?

It seems to me most of these execs have no idea...and it often seems unknowable. Our system right now seems middle of the road according to most scouts. It would get somewhat better - or above average - with a Roberts trade. But it's moot now if that article about Pieper's comments is accurate.

What pisses me off is why does he have to come out and say that? If we're posturing to get a better deal he should just shut the fuck up and let us do our thing. This pressuring us to move our hand through the press is some bullshit and weakens our stance with Seattle.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so are you saying...

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know."

So, I said, uh, lama: how about a little something for the effort?

by jq higgins on Jan 31, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That

is exactly what I'm saying.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Wieters is a guy who could step on the field in Baltimore next year and probably not outright embarrass himself. He wouldn't be very good, but he'd be as good as a lot of catchers. Of course you don't want him to do that, you want him to be totally ready, or as close to it as possible.

But as far as the organization goes, they've taken big steps forward. A lot of it depends on talent, of course, the same as Pat Riley can't win the NBA championship with a terrible team. You don't make good players out of bad ones.

I believe in what they're doing now. I don't think it'll take that long. We're already borderline escaping the worst organizations in baseball in this regard, and that's been the developments of the last three drafts or so.

Gone but not forgotten...

by SC on Jan 31, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like this discussion might be pointless

"MLB.com could not reach Bedard or his agent, Mark Pieper, for comment Wednesday. But on Thursday, Pieper released a statement vehemently denying that Bedard will enter into contract discussions with Baltimore.

"The report that appeared yesterday regarding Erik Bedard on MLB.com is wholely inaccurate and contains nothing factual," Pieper said. "Quite honestly, that type of journalism is irresponsible and reckless."

Agent denies report that Orioles want to talk extension with Bedard

Well, this winter brilliantly encapsulates the problem at the top that's made the O's sort of a joke franchise for roughly a decade now. ~Rob Neyer

by Stacey on Jan 31, 2008 11:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That would mean....

...he wants out of here in a big fucking way.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Jan 31, 2008 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

or his agent wants him out

Either/or, same diff.

Gone but not forgotten...

by SC on Jan 31, 2008 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

This aligns perfectly with what MacPhail has been saying about negotiations with Bedard. Basically that they weren't interested. Maybe Peter can trust him a little more in the future.

If you are a basbeall exec, are you any more inclined to deal with the O's after yet another fiasco?

"This is Birdland"

by drj on Jan 31, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs