Community Projection '08: Melvin Mora

by SC on Feb 29, 2008 12:46 AM EST in News Comment 36 comments

For the record, this year I'm going to put all the projected data together when we're done. Right now we're just doing the projections.

Second to the plate is Melvin Mora, the Oriole with the longest major league tenure on the current club. He came over in 2000, which just beats out Brian Roberts and Jay Gibbons, who joined the big club in 2001.

Melvin bounced back a bit in 2007, but that comes with some "buts." First, it still didn't make him any good. He had an adjusted OPS+ of 98. Second, he missed almost 40 games. Third, he's 36 years old.

The wheels could come off, bad, any time now. Or he could continue being below average, which might be the best case scenario.

                AB   AVG   OBP   SLG  2B  HR  RBI   BB/K
2005 Baltimore      593  .283  .348  .474  30  27   88  50/112
2006 Baltimore      624  .274  .342  .391  25  16   83  54/99
2007 Baltimore      467  .274  .341  .418  23  14   58  47/83

That's the line we need: AB, AVG/OBP/SLG, 2B, HR, RBI, BB/K

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Continuing deterioration of skills

AB 485
AVG. .261
OBP. .335
SLG. 394
2B 17
HR 12
RBI 44

"All I have to say is our partner is going to shock the world because he is none other than THE SHOCKMASTER!"-Sting

by jobe on Feb 29, 2008 2:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Honestly

I know this is terrible, but I hope the dude misses significant time so that Moore gets a chance to steal the job. I don't wish MelMo physical harm, but I don't see Trembley giving Moore a shot otherwise. And no, I don't think Moore is the next coming of A-Rod or anything, but he'll be as good as MelMo for waaaay less $$.

Anyway:

425 AB
.265 AVG
.329 OBP
.394 SLG
20 2B
12 HR
64 RBI
52 BB/85 K

by punkrawka on Feb 29, 2008 6:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

melmo

will steal third like forty times

but only with nobody out.

by thewaywardO on Feb 29, 2008 8:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking...

more like steal 2nd 30 times with 2 out and the O's down 7....

I remember 14 straight foul balls in one at-bat.

by duck on Feb 29, 2008 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, only when Jay Payton is batting

because that's how he got to the postseason - by needlessy distracting his teammates

by PhilR8 on Feb 29, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Less is Mora

Whines: 47
Pouts: 88
Sulks: 110
GIDP: Too depressingly many.
Bunts: Once a game.

by tbone shelby on Feb 29, 2008 8:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

best comment ever

by PhilR8 on Feb 29, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

"All I have to say is our partner is going to shock the world because he is none other than THE SHOCKMASTER!"-Sting

by jobe on Feb 29, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

New Here, be gentle

.275 BA
.330 OBP
8 HR
45 RBI

And a midseason trade out of town. If Brian goes before opening day I think all bets are off on every other vet.

by TracyHamandEggs on Feb 29, 2008 8:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

gentle like sunday morning

if Os could have traded Melmo, dey woulda

by thewaywardO on Feb 29, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

time go melvin

AB 475
AVG. .255
OBP. .325
SLG. 385
2B 15
HR 12
RBI 40

by merdon1332000 on Feb 29, 2008 9:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

re:

We should also be projecting bunts, especially surprise bunts, and boneheaded base running outs.

AB 490
AVG. .260
OBP. .333
SLG. .390
2B 20
HR 10
RBI 66
BB 45
K 90

"This is Birdland"

by drj on Feb 29, 2008 9:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Can we keep a tally of these in the sidebar once the season starts?

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Feb 29, 2008 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll goe with drj's numbers

I can totally see twice as many K's as walks.

I remember 14 straight foul balls in one at-bat.

by duck on Feb 29, 2008 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I really

have no idea...

AB: 501
Avg: .275
OBP: .345
SLG: .405
2B: 24
HR: 15
RBI: 60
BB/K: 60 / 108

I guess the rise in some of the numbers (2B/HR/RBI/BB) may come as a result of a few more ABs.

"When you are in with the Lord there's just one reward, and they'd just as soon make it come true." -REK

by BPinOK on Feb 29, 2008 10:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Less Playing Time

AB    AVG/OBP/SLG  2B HR RBI BB/K

380 .274/.340/.400 17 10 48 44/70

"Baltimore? That's like being hit in the head with a crowbar once a day."

by spike2131 on Feb 29, 2008 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

HTML Template

"Baltimore? That's like being hit in the head with a crowbar once a day."

by spike2131 on Feb 29, 2008 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

by the way.

i'm still mad about yesterday's gameday audio flameout.

by thewaywardO on Feb 29, 2008 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I got that too

But after I refreshed the browser 5 or 6 times, it worked.

"Baltimore? That's like being hit in the head with a crowbar once a day."

by spike2131 on Feb 29, 2008 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i missed about half the game

managed to tune in for 5-run meltdown.

but mlb.com shits the bed every year.

if it weren't a pattern, i'd be more forgiving.

by thewaywardO on Feb 29, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

small rebound

AB    AVG/OBP/SLG  2B HR RBI BB/K

280 .284/.355/.440 17 7 42 40/60

I'm calling a small rebound for melvin b/c of what he calls young guys reenergizing him (low at bats b/c he is traded in june for a roll of toilet paper). But really he knows if he performs then he can go play for a team that might actually make the playoffs. This way his vast playoff experience can go to good use.

by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 29, 2008 11:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Diminshing Returns

AB    AVG/OBP/SLG  2B HR RBI SB BB/K

422 .276/.337/.405 23 11 72  8  39/76

by GolferErm on Feb 29, 2008 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mora's PECOTA

AB    AVG/OBP/SLG  2B HR RBI BB/K

398 .259/.328/.401 17 10 48 34/63

with 9 SB

i'll go:

AB    AVG/OBP/SLG  2B HR RBI BB/K

325  .245/.315/.395 18 10 44 26/55

with 3 SBs

I came to Camden Yards to watch the O's and all I got was this lousy "Fenway South" t-shirt.

by Dave at Bottomfeeder Baseball on Feb 29, 2008 12:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA

although it's generally for communists, just about matches my line of thinking in this instance. My projection:

400 AB
.265 AVG
.330 OBP
.400 SLG
16 2B
10 HR
55 RBI
65 K
31 BB
5 SB

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Feb 29, 2008 12:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Continues to decline...

AB 398
AVG .274
OBP .330
SLG .395
14 2B
11 HR
48 RBI
78 K
27 BB
6 SB (4 CS)

by KenDixonFanClub on Feb 29, 2008 1:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

down goes melmo

2006 Baltimore 624 .274 .342 .391 25 16 83 54/99

AB: 599
AVG: 266
OBP: 327
SLG: 365
2B: 21
HR: 12
RBI: 66
BB/K: 47/87
SB/CS: 8/7

surprise bunts: 501

on-field arguments with Jay Payton: 3

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Feb 29, 2008 1:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Man, I wish I'd thought of that.

What are the odds those two actually engage in clubhouse fisticuffs? Maybe even the dugout? Can we get a line on that?

What if they both try to chase down the same flyball on the LF line? A knee-wrenching collision could answer some prayers....

by KenDixonFanClub on Feb 29, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope he gets even fewer ABs than this...

AB    AVG/OBP/SLG  2B HR RBI BB/K

375 .270/.327/.390 18 10 40 35/70

by silverstadium on Feb 29, 2008 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

AB    AVG/OBP/SLG  2B HR RBI BB/K

320 .251/.323/.376 15 4 34 28/60

Benched in June and only plays twice a week after that.

by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Feb 29, 2008 3:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

SCREW MORA

Play Costanzo.

Rocky Cherry, O's pitcher, not John C. McGinley's love child.

by birdman on Feb 29, 2008 4:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Melvin bounces back a bit

I'll play the part of the optimist of this projection. I'm going to say he doesn't lose time because of injury, but he gets some more time off which helps his numbers.

AB    AVG/OBP/SLG  2B HR RBI BB/K

515 .285/.365/.471 32 21 88 50/80

by Stacey on Mar 1, 2008 9:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Melvins worst year

AB- 530
AVG. .268
OBP- .334
SLG- .397
2B- 16
HR- 9
RBI- 77
BB/K- 45/75

BE HAPPY DONT BE SAD THE ORIOLES CANT REALLY BE ALL THAT BAD!

by westcoastOfan on Mar 1, 2008 1:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Paging Scott Moore

450 PA, .260/.325/.400, 18 2B, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 35 BB/70 K

[carries Carlos Pena's tub of Kool Aid]

by Wade Boggs Hair on Mar 3, 2008 1:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hey, at least his wife is good looking

and his kids are cute.

by timg56 on Mar 3, 2008 3:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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