Turning the page . . . to Roberts?

B Rob

We need to get an offensive threat to add to the young pitchers we've already recieved. Otherwise, I don't think we should trade B Rob simply to make another move.

by RobG on Feb 9, 2008 12:20 PM EST reply actions

now that we have a massive amt of pitching prospects lets start thinking about the entire infield that is gonna need some rebuilding. the sooner we get rid of mora and millar, along with huff and gibbons the better. maybe macphail can get some sorta package deal, but setting something like that up would most likely take months, my blood pressure is just coming down now from the last 2 weeks of the bedard trade.

Some people ask me what I do during winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Roger Hornsby

by dulak8 on Feb 9, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

Other than Murton, I don't get this at all.

Pass.

"It would behoove the Orioles to play better." - Jim Palmer

by 2632 on Feb 9, 2008 12:45 PM EST reply actions

Roberts

To echo everyone else, I don't get this deal either. Heck, I don't even understand why we want a guy like Murton. We have Luke Scott under control for 4 years and we have Nolan Reimold who should be ready by the end of next year. So it looks like we finally have an outfield that is set. What we don't have is any middle infield prospects, which I believe are helpful if you are rebuilding.

My fear is that MacPhail will trade with Chicago just to trade him, kind of like the deal with Tejada. Houston has a crappy farm system, so we shouldn't have even been talking to them. Cedeno and E. Patterson = no thanks.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Feb 9, 2008 1:29 PM EST reply actions

re:

I think MacPhail has done enough this offseason that fans won't be impatient for another move. With the pressure off, I don't think he'll make a deal unless there's a lot to gain. The question is, does he think we somehow have something to gain from this deal?

Like Bedard was, Brian is under contract for another two years. No reason to rush this.

Batting fourth....playing center field....

by zknower on Feb 9, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

I forgot about Luke Scott

Now I get it even less.

"It would behoove the Orioles to play better." - Jim Palmer

by 2632 on Feb 9, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

I also think Roberts...

...could look mighty attractive to somebody at midseason. If a contender has injuries and a major middle infield emergency in July, who's there to fill the need, and bilk your farm system of prospects? Brian Roberts and Andy MacPhail, that's who. I mean, if you are team X, and you have a nice MI prospect in AA, but know he isn't ready for a pennant race in the show, what do you do? Bring him up anyway and cross your fingers? Or trade for the switch-hitting All-Star leadoff hitter?

That being said, I wouldn't be upset to see Roberts still in an Os uniform in April. It ain't the end of the world.

by KenDixonFanClub on Feb 9, 2008 2:09 PM EST reply actions

I agree

A player like Roberts might not seem that attractive in the offseason, because hes not an impact player like a power bat or No. 1 starter, but when a team is struggling to find a second baseman at midseason they will give up more.

Right now, the Cubs can convince themselves that Mark DeRosa can get it done at second, but if he has a bad first half, they might be desperate.

by nittany lion on Feb 9, 2008 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

I got news for him...

He ain't exactly on some surefire winner now that he's with the M's. And as I said before this deal, as good as Bedard is, this deal does not put Seattle on top of that division. It's still not even close in my opinion...and I can't see them catching a Wild Card either. It could be great for Bedard's career though to pitch at SafeCo, so there's plenty of reason to smile about that big paycheck coming in two years.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Feb 9, 2008 2:47 PM EST reply actions

This could remind me when Takeo Spikes

joined the Bills from Cincinnati and he kept talking like he was out of football purgatory and was now with a real team that was serious about winning, even though that team was the Bills, and the Bengals even had a better year than the Bills that year. I'm not trying to say the Orioles will finish ahead of the Mariners, more that Takeo Spikes is an idiot. That goes to Aubrey Huff too, trying to put down Tampa Bay.

"All I have to say is our partner is going to shock the world because he is none other than THE SHOCKMASTER!"-Sting

by jobe on Feb 9, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

No Felix Pie, Cubs,

no B-ROB! I have absolutely no evidence to this but it seems like B-ROB would be more inclined to sign an extension than Bedard would, especially now that there is atleast light at the end of the tunnel, albeit that light is 2-3 years away. Probably wishful thinking on my part, but the main thing is there will be plenty of teams that would want a player like Brian, and plenty with better systems than the Cubs. Don't trade with these A-holes Andy.

"All I have to say is our partner is going to shock the world because he is none other than THE SHOCKMASTER!"-Sting

by jobe on Feb 9, 2008 2:48 PM EST reply actions

well...

roberts has also made negative comment about rebuilding. i think he wants out, but is too respectful of the fans to come out and say it.

So, I said, uh, lama: how about a little something for the effort?

by jq higgins on Feb 9, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

I'll leave it to blind faith of MacPhail

If he trades Roberts for certain players, I'll assume there's a good reason he did so. We're banking on the fact that MacPhail actually knows how to do his job, so I'll reserve judgement until later.

by dfleis on Feb 9, 2008 3:34 PM EST reply actions

This would be a stupid trade

let's revisit at mid-season

"If you're not practicing, somebody else is, somewhere, and he'll be ready to take your job." -Brooks Robinson

by exitfare on Feb 9, 2008 4:18 PM EST reply actions

but seriously...

what ARE they going to do about shortstop? what about that dude zobrist in tampa? rays just got bartlett, and brignac can't be too far behind.

i mean, he's been pants in mlb, but he's never posted less than a .400 obp in the minors. that's sort of insane.

So, I said, uh, lama: how about a little something for the effort?

by jq higgins on Feb 9, 2008 4:59 PM EST reply actions

From a Cubs POV..

Cubs fans are also wary of some of the same things that this post mentions... Roberts is an above average 2b, that said, we have a good 2b in Mark DeRosa, (102 OPS+ last year). Yes Roberts had a great 07', but he's only had that type of year twice... so consistency isn't one of Roberts strong suits. Also, his skillset is going to be one that is prone to rapid degeneration due to age. Namely his speed.

Now, I wouldn't mind having Roberts for the 08' season, but let's be honest.. he's not worth Felix Pie, he's not worth Sean Gallagher, he's not even really worth Tyler Colvin. You don't need Matt Murton, you don't need Sean Marshall.

Maybe the Cubs and Orioles aren't great trading partners afterall. You say you need a SS.. Ronny Cedeno would probably be available. Cedeno has had a couple great years in the minors and is still just 24 years old. Take Cedeno and take Eric Patterson whom before last year was extremely highly regarded at 2b, and you've got yourself a possibility of a good middle IF. Now each of them have large question marks, but let's not pretend that Roberts doesn't have those same question marks.

I understand the angst, trust me Cubs fans want nothing more than this melodrama to be over and to find out who will be in our starting lineup come April, but I think (not this blog) but the few Orioles blogs that I've actually read, have truly overestimated the value of a second baseman who hasn't been consistent and who has a skill set that is strongly tied to his age.

I wish the Orioles (regardless who is on the team) the best of luck especially in their series vs the Yankees and Red Sox. Hopefully this Roberts to the Cubs stuff ends quickly.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 9, 2008 8:37 PM EST reply actions

Huh?

"Take Cedeno and take Eric Patterson whom before last year was extremely highly regarded at 2b, and you've got yourself a possibility of a good middle IF. Now each of them have large question marks, but let's not pretend that Roberts doesn't have those same question marks."

Questions marks with Brian Roberts? Like what?! He's only one of the top lead off guys in the league and an above average infielder to boot! Every thing i've read says that Cedeno has a questionable glove and is a below average hitter, and our experience with the other Patterson leaves us skeptical of Eric's "potential".
Don't try to sell us a bill of goods.

by RobG on Feb 9, 2008 9:15 PM EST up reply actions

Hmmm?

"Questions marks with Brian Roberts? Like what?! He's only one of the top lead off guys in the league and an above average infielder to boot!"

Roberts is an above average lead off hitter. Let's not get carried away with hyperbole. I understand the love for Roberts, I don't fault you for that love. Roberts is not this amazing god of baseball. His career OPS+ (essentially a measure of average OPS over a league, in his case the AL) is 101. meaning he is about 1% better than the average AL player.. Not that impressive. He was over that number in 07' and 05' under in 06' and every year before that.

You may say , well OPS+ isn't a very good metric for a 2b. Okay I'll buy that. 2b naturally have a worse OPS+ than most others in the league, but his bat is league average. His career Equivalent Average (EqA) is .268, (when just adjusted for the season in which he put it up) and .280 (when adjusted for all-time). What does that mean? Well analyze it just like you would a batting average .250 is average, .275 is above average .300 is a star. Roberts is just above average at the plate.. we knew that though., and if you look at how his EqA is distributed, it's pulled up by two very good years after years of seemingly average years. Which Brian Roberts will we get? I don't want to get the bad one.

What is special about Roberts is his ability to run, a statistic that typically gets worse with age. If you look at the career paths of guys like Scott Podsednik, you can see that his speed faded as he aged. (Scott may be a case of hyperbole, but it's apropos)

Defensively? You say he's above average defender and that's not really exactly the case. If you look at his career Rate-2, (a stat which I admittedly do not know a whole lot about)., he only scores a 101. Just barely above average. If you look at his RAA.(Runs Above Average), he scores a 7, again a stat that I'm not too sure about. The good thing is that the two stats basically tell you the same thing, he's just slightly above average if at all above average.

I think Brian Roberts is an above average player, but in no way would I quantify his ability level as "top" or "great".

As for the guys in my hypothetically proposed deal, I admittedly gave you an offer that made sense for you (positionally) with little regard to actual ability level. You'd probably get another prospect with Cedeno and Patterson. That said, Cedeno's metrics look like a young Brian Roberts defensively anyway. He's struggled to fit in but he's still extremely young and he's probably got a better chance to succeed in the pros than he's shown thus far. Eric Patterson is different than his brother. He's actually a decent ballplayer. Unfortunately the Cubs got this idea that he couldn't defend 2b, (a point in which may scouts and prospect evaluators scratched their head on). So they moved him to the OF. He can still play 2b, and he can still hit. He'd be a suitable replacement for B-Rob and while he may not give you the speed numbers, he should be a suitable replacement for the next 6 years.

My point is that a lot of the stuff I read treats Roberts as if he's a star in this league, his numbers tend to disagree.. maybe his numbers sell him short? Because I believe we've got a decent enough second baseman in DeRosa that is Brian Roberts without the speed.

Links::http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/roberbr01.shtml
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/roberbr01.php

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 9, 2008 9:43 PM EST up reply actions

re:

He's one of the most productive second basemen in baseball.

That said, I don't get what the Cubs need him so much for. DeRosa is fine.

Gone but not forgotten...

by Scott Christ on Feb 9, 2008 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

I agree...

That said, It seems either our GM wants to fleece yours, or MacPhail just missed Hendry so much that he needed some excuse to talk to his old friend.

I'm not sure where Roberts is on the list of "most productive second baseman in baseball". He's certainly top 10.

On EQA,

Utley : .321
Kent : .291
Polanco: .288
Johnson (ATL): .286
Weeks: .285
Roberts: .285

So he's top 5. THIS YEAR. He's only had two seasons like this one, 05' and 07'. Even at his best he's still got a hill to climb and he's 30 years old.. What happened in 06'...?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/eqa2007.php#postot

I want a more consistent 2b if I'm giving up Gallagher, whom the poster may not like but is a good 3 even in the AL. I admit that I would want Roberts on my team, but not at the cost of a Gallagher, 6 years of a 3rd starter. Just my two cents.. and it's actually pesos, so it's probably only worth .01 or less.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 9, 2008 10:30 PM EST up reply actions

For what it's worth

DeRosa is .268.

That's a decent difference but it's not worth what the Orioles are asking for.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 9, 2008 10:34 PM EST up reply actions

2006

2006 is an outlier because he was essentially rehabbing an awful injury incurred in late 05. Is he up there with Utley? No. But he's on the next rung of second baseman, fo sure. High OBP, decent power for a second baseman. He's not overpaid.

The question for cub fans I guess is do they think they need him to provide a win or two over the Brewers next year. The cost of a win is relatively meaningless to a team as bad as the Orioles, but to a team that could be in a heckuva division race, that one or two wins he provides over DeRosa could be significant. My problem with the Cubs is that they don't seem to be a good match with us.

And, while I do say this with a trace of sarcasm, he's "gritty" and fans love him.

Good luck to your team, though!

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Feb 10, 2008 3:14 AM EST up reply actions

'06

Recovering from that horrendous elbow injury inflicted by Bubba Crosby in September 2005 on a bush-league attempt to loosen the ball from his grip. Took him most of the year (if not the whole year) to get his power back.

I remember 14 straight foul balls in one at-bat.

by duck on Feb 10, 2008 9:50 AM EST up reply actions

for a 2b...

you should really look at warp3. last season, the best in warp3 for 2b were cano, polanco and utley (11+, 11 even and 10.7). roberts was close behind utley w/ a 9.5 warp3. derosa was 5.8 which is sround average. roberts in 2006 was 6.1 in and 11.5 in 2005. roberts is in the midst of his prime, derosa is not getting any better. now, cano and utley are clearly the best in mlb. weeks is a good hitter, but kind of a butcher in the field. polanco's career shows a gravitational pull towards "the derosa zone." there's really no reason to think a player his age will repeat the season he had last year this year.

so, do the cubs NEED roberts? probably not, but he's a pretty significant upgrade over derosa.

So, I said, uh, lama: how about a little something for the effort?

by jq higgins on Feb 10, 2008 10:30 AM EST up reply actions

The Problem with the WARP stats

is that they are trying to do something extremely poorly. WARP translations attempt to account for "all-time" the game is undoubtedly changed a tremendous amount. In fact, I wouldn't use WARP unless I was trying to do what the stat was intended to do, compare players from different generations.

EqA is much better to compare players of this season. So what you're saying is, older players perform worse than younger players.. interesting you say that as Cano Utley and Weeks enter their respective primes and Brian Roberts leaves his. He's 30.. some of the other Orioles blogs want both Pie and Gallagher, that's absurd.. Absolutely absurd.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 10, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

not really...

the overall point was that looking at one year doesn't grab the full value, looking at just offense doesn't grab the full value, polanco's 2007 was pretty demonstrably an outlier, roberts is younger and better than derosa (who is for sure out of his prime at 33...look how much his slg dipped last year).

additionally, roberts would also probably see an improvement in counting stats playing a weighted schedule w/ so many games in minute maid and great american, 81 games at wrigley and playing the pirates.

and chase utley is only a year younger than roberts.

and i think no one cares about felix pie now that we have adam jones.

So, I said, uh, lama: how about a little something for the effort?

by jq higgins on Feb 10, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

Something that I didn't do enough of

was defend my point that WARP was a poor statistic to use when other statistics better represent what you are trying to say.

It's sort of a lazy statistic it combines three underlying statistics that have a goal of quantifying all-time contributions.

BRAR - Batting Runs Above Replacement.

I could link the BP article but BRAR basically assumes a .230 EqA player (changes per position) and calculates the runs created that a player has over the replacement player.

FRAR- Fielding Runs Above Replacement.

I am very foggy here but there are several much better metrics to use instead of this one. Fielding metrics have come a long way, Some of the rate-2 stats are nice if the sample size is large enough.

PRAR - Pitching Runs Above Replacement:

Has some problems that BRAR has.

Better stats to use:

For hitting:
EqA, OPS+

For fielding:
Rate-2,

For pitching:
DERA, SNL

I love how you've added so much value to Roberts by saying he'd be so much better in the NL Central parks where he plays 9 games a year... 9 games... seriously. As if Fenway or Yankee stadium aren't big hitters parks, Camden Yards for that matter, is a decent hitters park. I'm glad no one cares about Felix Pie, and I'm sure will be happy with Jones, he's a special palyer.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 11, 2008 11:16 PM EST up reply actions

roberts recovered from injury in 2006

He was injured late in 2005, underwent surgery, and got in shape enough to return in 2006. He still played well. As the season went on, his power went up.

that's what happened in 2006...

by dfleis on Feb 10, 2008 11:14 AM EST up reply actions

Another concern

Is defense. Everything I've encountered suggests that Roberts is an above-average defender at second.

Weeks and Kent are butchers. Cano used to be below-average but is now actually probably pretty good. Utley is above average, and combined with his bat this makes him one of the best players in baseball.

I dunno anything about the ATL guy.

by pipkin on Feb 10, 2008 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

sigh

The conclusion you're coming to based on the numbers is exactly the reason why there is (and forever will be) a large number of baseball people who resist blind allegiance to sabremetrics.

Ignoring your over-simplification of OPS+, you've also ignored the fact that Roberts put up an OPS+ of 96 in a year after he nearly had his arm torn off. He wasn't the same player - anyone watching could tell. Yet he still put up a 96 & completed the rebound to 112 OPS+ the following year. Your conclusion is that he's inconsistent - anyone actually following his career would tell you that he's been nothing BUT consistent over the past 4 seasons & only suffered a numbers hit due to severe injury.

You're right about one thing, though, and that's that OPS+ isn't a fantastic measure for the 2B position, especially when discussing a leadoff man. For the most part, save Brady Anderson's 50HR season, you aren't going to find (nor would you want) leadoff men with high SLG. Which hurts the stat. What you will find are guys with speed, which Roberts has, and high OBP, which Roberts also has. His RC is up there with league leaders - on a BAD offensive team - so when people shrug about why Roberts would be needed when Mark freaking DeRosa (2 seasons with 500+ PAs out of 10??) is already in place I can't help but laugh. You're right - why go 3 years younger for a player in his prime who's demonstrated the ability to put up dozens of steals while getting on base at an extremely high rate and having one of the most underrated qualities in MLB? Check out his pitches/PA. He's patient, he can lay down the bunt, he can rake the doubles, he'll swipe 25 bases for you without trying. He also plays great D.

"Not worth Pie". This is the same Pie that was being heralded as a stud and is now being questioned as to whether or not he'll stick? Whatever. I actually don't want Pie. I'd prefer the OF on your roster who's proven he can hit ML pitching.

So I'd take Murton/Gallagher/Cedeno/Patterson and here's why: we got 5 players in return for Miguel Tejada. Brian Roberts, at this stage, is worth more than Tejada but I think Hendry's still smarting from the Trachsel deal. Payton & cash can come over with Roberts to play 4th OF. But if we aren't talking 4-5 players in return & none of them are named Pie or Colvin, this ain't gonna happen.

Our fans are better than yours.

by OEutaw on Feb 10, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

Absolutely Well Said

After reading over the comments from the cubs fan, I couldn't help but notice his own admittance to not knowing the stats he was quoting, yet he was using that as evidence against B-Rob.

Anyone who wouldn't want Roberts on their team as their lead-off hitter must be crazy. Take a look at the current make-up of the cubs. Who is suppose to lead-off on that team? Alfonso Soriano is probably head up the line-up and he a middle of the order guy. DeRosa could bat 1st, but he had only 28 doubles and 1 stolen base last year. He is not the guy you want to start the rally; he's a guy you bat #2 to move around the speedster. You can argue for Theriot with his speed but the .266 average is not helping matters.

I'm not saying the Cubs in that week division couldn't repeat as division champs as they are, but their run production would greatly improve with a proven lead-off hitter.

by PWubbs on Feb 10, 2008 6:00 PM EST up reply actions

I admitted that I didn't know everything about

the stats, but I know enough to use them and analyze them. I'm no Bill james, but I can take his work an use it.

That said, Soriano is our leadoff hitter. He's not ever going to be anything more than that. (which I'd argue he's a much better than Roberts). DeRosa isn't a lead off hitter. Sadly the best the Cubs could probably do in the leadoff might be Pie or DeRosa. Lineup construction isnt' all that terribly important anyway.

I'm not sure how else to respond this, Soriano doesn't hit in many other spots in the lineup, he sees more fastballs in the leadoff spot, and hits more HR's as a result..

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 10, 2008 6:31 PM EST up reply actions

sori, brian and pie

Soriano's OBP from 05 to 07: 309, 351, 337
Robert's OBP from 05 to 07: 387, 347, 377

Sori obviously has more power and but if you desire a leadoff hitter who gets on base, it's not even close.

Pie has some pretty serious flaws in his game, namely only recording 182 walks in 2,353 plate appearances, which is below the 10% cutoff that guys like Sickels use. It is not to say he won't be a nice player and it's not to say he's not a great prospect, but he's not in Adam Jones' class, imo.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Feb 10, 2008 9:26 PM EST up reply actions

Dr Orpheus needs to lie down

I think Len and Bob would disagree with your statement that "Soriano is our leadoff hitter. He's not ever going to be anything more than that." Sure, he's the lead-off hitter right now, but that has more to do with what he did playing for the Nationals and the fact that he has speed then anything else. Most, if not all, the sports media has been commenting that Soriano should be driving in runs. He can use his speed when he gets on base, sure, but the guy can hit the crap out of the ball and needs to be hitting in a spot where he can drive in runs instead of standing on second or third waiting for someone else to get an RBI. With Roberts on base, and Teriot having hit and ran to move him up, it gives D-Lee, A-Ram, and Soriano a higher probability of bringing them home.

"I'm not sure how else to respond this, Soriano doesn't hit in many other spots in the lineup, he sees more fastballs in the leadoff spot, and hits more HR's as a result.."

Then why did he hit 28 and 36 as a Ranger, hitting in the three, four, and five hole? Oh, and he scored 97 runs last year to his 102 in the three, four, and five spots in the line-up in his second year as a Ranger. What he did for the Nationals was show off to make sure he got a huge contract. He hit lead-off because he was, similarly to what he had going on last year, the fastest guy on the Nationals and most likely to get on base. Frank Robinson said, several times that he wished there were someone who could hit lead off so he could move Soriano in to a more run producing role. That's what he did for the Yankees and the Rangers and you're selectively ignoring those stats here.

Now, if you're going to respond to his home run totals by saying "But Arlington Park is a hitters park" then you need to remember that Wrigley is microscopic. RFK is a massive field and Soriano hit 46 homers in his first and only year there. So, that's a non-factor.

I'm all over the place with these comments, sorry.

Oh, and why are the Cubs so hesitant about moving Colvin? The guy won't be ready for another year or two and his positions (OF and 1B) are blocked by established veterans. They're high on Pie and Fuld...and Colvin. Silly. Trade a blocked chip for a player that will help your team by getting on and stealing bases for you. That was their major problem last year anyway.

Ahhh, this conversation is silly.

by Dr Orpheus on Feb 10, 2008 10:31 PM EST up reply actions

AND

they've spent a shitload of money on soriano and fukudome and soriano.

also note wrt soriano: he's fast, but he's not very adept at stealing bases (i.e. he gets caught a lot). i will say cubsfan is spot on wrt theriot and base running efficiency.

So, I said, uh, lama: how about a little something for the effort?

by jq higgins on Feb 11, 2008 10:47 AM EST up reply actions

whoops...

a shitload of money on just one soriano.

So, I said, uh, lama: how about a little something for the effort?

by jq higgins on Feb 11, 2008 10:47 AM EST up reply actions

Some of your points

1- Soriano's splits are pretty ugly in different spots in the lineup. Just go look up his splits.. He's just not as good of a hitter in those spots.

2- He hit leadoff for the Rangers, when he was moved from the leadoff spot he was ehhh. Every manager wants to have a homerun hitter in a run producing spot.. I'm not worried though he's a hitter and he wants to hit leadoff, let him hit leadoff. He's produced there.

3- Theriot is trash, if you want him back, you can have him... seriously... take him, oh and Mike Fontenot too.. take him back too.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 11, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions

re

"...and he wants to hit leadoff, let him hit leadoff."

He also wanted to be a second basemen and we all saw how that worked out for him

"When you are in with the Lord there's just one reward, and they'd just as soon make it come true." -REK

by BPinOK on Feb 12, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

okay

So a guy has three miserable years, followed by an amazing year, followed by an injury torn year, followed by a great year again. Brian Roberts isn't getting younger. I just don't dig Roberts for that price. Wow he'll swipe 25 bases? How many did Theriot swipe last year?

I'm not amazed with Roberts skill set. He's a good 2b, but when you have a decent 2b, do you trade that much young talent for an above average 2b, that's teetering on that age/curve. No I don't it's not smart baseball. I really hope Roberts goes on and has a great year in an Orioles uniform. I'm not being blindly allegiant. I'm pointing out that all of the metrics agree. Brian Roberts is an above average 2b, he's not a world beater, he's not Chase Utley, and you don't trade your top prospects for an above average player.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 10, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions

yup

Roberts is a good player, i love watching him play and he puts up good OBP's which is crucial especially from a lead off guy (which soriano should not be under any circumstances). However you are right in that the Cub's interest in him is difficult to understand, the cubs could have used bedard more than roberts and seattle could have used roberts more than bedard. Ichiro and Roberts 1-2 would have been some serious speed/on base percentage.

by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 10, 2008 7:52 PM EST up reply actions

Wow, he'll steal 50.

Fifty bases stolen. FIFTY. Because the new coach asked him to run more. When I said "25" I was speaking on the numbers he can put up without bothering to focus on it. He easily steals 25. Last year he stole 50.

So, once again, you go 3 years younger for a player in his prime & gain one of the game's top leadoff men because you're trying to win the World Series. Because you want All-Stars at as many positions as possible. Because, if you don't make it this year, next year Mark DeRosa is also another year older & even less productive than Roberts.

Then again, maybe this is why the Cubs' drought has lasted so long. Me, I'd either put DeRosa on the bench as a super-sub or trade him for another piece. But there are very few teams in MLB who wouldn't be upgrading their offense by having Brian Roberts as their leadoff hitter. It all depends on whether you want to win now or just compete later. If I'm the Chicago Cubs, I go balls-out whenever I'm close enough to consider it. Then again, I'd also rather have Soriano driving in runs with his high HR totals than hitting solo shots at the top of the order. And I certainly wouldn't be arguing for keeping it that way...

Our fans are better than yours.

by OEutaw on Feb 11, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed...

I think that our particular Cubs fan:
a. doesn't understand baseball
b. is here simply to argue
c. is actually Awesome Mike Awesome in disguise

by RobG on Feb 11, 2008 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

I'll choose a)

He doesn't come across as argumentative in his posts. Just the opposite - he's reasonable and doesn't get upset when challenged.

I don't know who Awesome Mike Awesome is (unless it's Flannigan). So that one is out.

I would even go so far as to say he doesn't understand baseball, as he has a point in wondering why the Cubs are so hot on Roberts. (Dr. Orpheus explains why.)

I would say he has done a poor job of evaluating Roberts. If one didn't know anything about Roberts, Oeutaw and Dr. Orpheus' arguments were far more convincing than cubsfan's.

Here is the easiest way to determine Robert's value - name 5 second basemen you'd rather have than him.

by timg56 on Feb 11, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

Utley, Cano

Uh, Weeks (but I'd make him a CFer, so that hardly counts). Dan Uggla?

Nah, that is a pretty good way.

by pipkin on Feb 11, 2008 5:16 PM EST up reply actions

GREETEST! <intended>

That's right! I'm a genius! I should be wearing a hat AND a cape for some reason. FOR EVERY REASON!

...such a silly argument.

by Dr Orpheus on Feb 11, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

To name a few

Utley
Cano
Brandon Phillips
Weeks
BJ Upton (if you count him, he'll be in CF next year but played 2b last year)

On the same level as Roberts when you consider age/protection:
Kendrick in Anaheim
Kelly Johnson
Uggla? is close.

should I keep going?

That's what I get for trying to be reasonable and polite with a bunch of people who are self professed experts on the game of baseball I guess.

Roberts has become a much better base runner (50/57) last year as opposed to 36/43 06' and 27/37 in 05 but that is what is expected over your prime seasons (26-31) in the case of hitters. I'm not saying Roberts isn't a good 2b, I'm saying two years of Roberts isn't worth selling the farm over. Take for instance, Rafael Furcal (who is now 31) would you give up Matt Wieters (Your top prospect, at one point Pie was regarded at about the same level as Wieters is now) for Furcal? I doubt you would... and it wouldn't even be straight up. It's analogous to that. I'm sorry for even trying to be polite about things. That's the only regret I have, I figure if I was more of a douche, rather than trying to get you to understand that a 2b who's heading out of his prime (BUT still in it) wasn't worth a top 30 prospect and 1-2 more good players under control for 6 years wasn't worth it for a team that has a decent 2b already. Apparently, I've failed.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 11, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions

Admittedly

if I was just going to pick one year and it was 08' I'd have Roberts closer.. for JUST 08'...

Utley
Cano
Phillips
Upton
Roberts
Weeks.

With the difference between Roberts and Weeks being nearly indistinguishable. Despite his three or four years, Weeks is still in his mid twenties.. He's primed for a breakout or bust type year here. And had a very nice OPS last year. Injuries have been his major detractor.

Like I said before, maybe I should have been a bit more of a douche, I didn't realize I was entering the mecca of baseball knowledge here at Camden Chat. I had no clue that I would be faced with such total, unequivocal knowledge about the game of baseball. I'm obviously mistaken about Roberts.. He's a future HOF no doubt. In fact, let's just get him on the ballot now, forget the five years after he retires rule.

I apologize for being beneath your obvious level of expertise on the game of baseball.. I will retreat to Orioles Hangout, where I can learn more about the game, and quite possibly return to this place one day.. Shalom.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 11, 2008 8:29 PM EST up reply actions

Or something...

I honestly know nothing about stats. That's why I lose at fantasy baseball so often or so I'm told by jerks who win. The truth is, we were all presenting our own subjective thoughts on this possible trade and things got a little testy.

As a Cubs and Os fan, admittedly leaning far more toward the Os, I see the trade as a positive for both teams and that's it. I'm not saying I know more, that's just my opinion. That's what a blog is mostly about. Opinion and wild accusation and fart jokes. Am I right?

by Dr Orpheus on Feb 11, 2008 8:49 PM EST up reply actions

I don't mind

You or what you said, It was more of a response to the notion that I knew nothing about the game. I know just enough to make me dangerous when it comes to the statistics of baseball. Unfortunately I also know that the statistics of baseball also include a great deal of error in their measurement.

I also take offense to the notion that Sean Gallagher is crap. Personally I'd take Gallagher over every single prospect the Orioles got with the exceptions of Jones and Tillman. I'd take him over Patton pretty easily. A lot of prospectors would probably put them on the same level or have Gallagher ahead.

I dont have a problem with you disagreeing with my analysis, I have no problems with anyone who disagrees with me and tells me Brian Roberts is a good player.. I said that he was a good player, but he's a fringy top 5 2b, and the difference between guys like Utley and Cano and Roberts is great.

I don't know who Awesome Mike Awesome is, but that doesn't sound very flattering, I guess I don't care about that.. that post was seethingly sarcastic. I came searching for a debate to attempt to better understand what the actual trade discussions would be like. If Andy McPhail has showed Jim Hendry the same arguments that this blog has showed me, I don't think a deal will be getting done. From what I read today, there's a deal supposedly on Angelos's desk? It's probably bogus, but it would send Gallagher, Cedeno and Murton. Probably too much, I'd be a lot more comfortable giving you Marshall Cedeno and Murton for reasons of rotation makeup, potential upside and overall ability. That said, the Cubs would really be going for it in 08' if they added Roberts. I'd be disappointed, but I could live with it.

I'm done here, I've said my part. Hopefully the Orioles keep Roberts and we all can live out in peace.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 11, 2008 11:01 PM EST up reply actions

So much rambling on my part

Based on what I've read about Gallagher he'll be a 3 or 4 guy in a decent rotation, possibly a 2 in a bad one. As well, many of the top prospect lists aren't that high on him, especially some of the top 100. Baseball Prospectus' list doesn't even have him on there opting, instead, for 12. Matt Wieters, c, Orioles; 75. Chorye Spoone, rhp, Orioles; and 85. Radhames Liz, rhp, Orioles and 37. Geovany Soto, c, Cubs and 45. Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs.

John Sickels' own predictions for BAs top 100 don't have Gallagher listed either.

Now, I'm not trying to discredit you or anyone else or be a jerk, but is it possible that we, as fans, are projecting our own bias on these players (Roberts, Cedeno, and Gallagher)? Trying to be as objective as possible Cedeno is crap and might make it as a bench guy in he NL, Colvin seems like he'll have less to offer than Pie (if Pie can get his bat working) and make it as a corner outfielder with a decent offensive clip, and Gallagher will pan out to be an innings eating #3 on a good club. As well, staying on that objective perspective, Roberts is a difference making player. Most in the sports media believes that. He gets on base, frazzles pitchers, works counts remarkably well, steals bases, plays slightly above average defense, blah blah blah.

The real question is simple: Is it worth the Cubs trading off three prospects who might pan out, many believe Murton has not but those people are wrong in my opinion, for a difference making second baseman? I think its a traded I'd absolutely get done; which is difficult because, as a guy who wasn't too happy with the Cubs signing DeRosa to a huge contract only to be rewarded by an extremely versatile guy, I'd like to see DeRosa out there at second with Fontenoit spelling him on occasion. That's what I'd like, but I understand that in order to get over that hump, to make it to the playoffs, the Cubs need an on base guy and they don't have that right now.

by Dr Orpheus on Feb 12, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions

Partly

I would admit that I'm biased slightly but that slight bias comes from knowing too much. I agree on your projection on Gallagher an innings eating 3. Under control for the next 6 years.. that's valuable. Ceiling wise I'd take Spoone and Liz over Gallagher, chances of reaching that ceiling, I'm taking Gallagher over the two Orioles prospects. Spoone has really started to shine, and I'm excited to see what he turns into, Liz I'm thinking potential back end of a bullpen type. Although I'm sure you're wanting more.

I know you're not trying to discredit me, but if you were, I'd point out that John Sickles didn't post a prediction of the BA Top 100. That's some member that is trying to be funny, the Baseball Prospect Book is already in the hands of it's owners, meaning if you bought the book you know what the Top 100 is.

If I could, I'd offer McPhail the Orioles, Marshall Murton and Cedeno.

If the Orioles say no, maybe I add a minor prospect to the deal but I doubt that works, if that doesn't work I walk.

Gallagher is a 4-star prospect IMO, (on KG's scale). He strikes out a fair amount and does not walk a good amount. He has success in the upper minors including AA and AAA at the age of 21 years old.

Don't cite the media and what the media thinks, Jeff Zrebiac may be a great O's guy, but the Chicago media is devoid of a good baseball guy. Roberts is what he is. a good ballplayer. I really don't have too much more to say. I think it's funny though, I'm on my high horse about Gallagher (commentor two comments down.) But I'm betting if this were flipped, and it was the Cubs asking for the Orioles prospects, there would be a whole different tune being sung.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 12, 2008 1:43 AM EST up reply actions

Apparently,

he's Awesome Mike Awesome after all.

Batting fourth....playing center field....

by zknower on Feb 11, 2008 10:11 PM EST up reply actions

Question...

"I will retreat to Orioles Hangout, where I can learn more about the game." Haven't they been discredited once this offseason already?

by Dr Orpheus on Feb 11, 2008 10:53 PM EST up reply actions

Yes badly

It was brutal sarcasm.. Orioles Hangout is full of wackos.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 11, 2008 11:03 PM EST up reply actions

serioulsy

dude, get off your high horse for a second and take the time to look http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/sean-gallagher.shtml at what your talking about.

what exaclty in those stats tells you that the O's wouldnt want Gallagher? The fact that he has as many K's as IP? That he has been young and good at every MiLB level so far? Or are you basing your entire opinion on his 8 IP in the bigs?

by dylanj on Feb 12, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions

this

is meant for zknower btw

by dylanj on Feb 12, 2008 9:33 AM EST up reply actions

i thought it might be for me

I took a look at the stats.

On the one hand, you've got me: I was clearly placing WAY to much emphasis on his major league stats. His minor league ones are really impressive. I'm willing to admit that I was rash to judgment there.

On the other hand, people seem to agree he will be a #3 innings-eating pitcher. While that is a valuable commodity, it's not a commodity we need right now. And he isn't that yet, he just projects to that. In the national league, no less. Those stats won't be the same when he isn't getting a free out every nine.

My overall point is: I'll give you that he seems like a decent pitcher. BUut we've got about a bajillion pitching prospects right now. What we need is some stellar position player prospects, particularly in our middle infield; the kinds that might be a new Brian Roberts in 2010.

That's why I don't like this deal. And no, Cedeno doesn't count.

Batting fourth....playing center field....

by zknower on Feb 12, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

well

then the cubs arent going to be a great match- other than patterson and cedeno who are meh at best we dont have a great position prospect.

you guys can keep roberts and we can keep gallagher and we both go home happy

by dylanj on Feb 12, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

re:

Seems really quiet on the rumor front. That just may be what's happening.

"This is Birdland"

by drj on Feb 12, 2008 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

My know-it-all meter just pegged.

I would admit that I'm biased slightly but that slight bias comes from knowing too much.

Yeah, knowing too much is a real cross to bear. Glad to see you're soldiering on.

I'm sorry, did he say he could have been more of a douche?

Our fans are better than yours.

by OEutaw on Feb 12, 2008 9:15 AM EST up reply actions

Yes

Knowing too much about a player or set of players make you vulnerable to bias. Apparently you read me as confrontational. Which is fine.. You can be a douchebag if you'd like.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 12, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions

Ah, yes.

Who can forget that well-worn adage: "familiarity breeds hard-ons"?

If one doesn't want to be seen as a douche, one should avoid phrases that insinuate they know more than everyone else. Or those in which they specifically label themselves as said douche.

Our fans are better than yours.

by OEutaw on Feb 12, 2008 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

Brandon Phillips stinks

OBPs .331 in a bandbox. No thanks.

by pipkin on Feb 12, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

brandon

phillips hits for alot more power, has equal speed, is younger and cheaper than Brian Roberts

i would imagine your "no thanks" is the minority

by dylanj on Feb 12, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

First off

there is a n't missing from would in my third sentence. What I was trying to say was that the only thing I thought you were off base on was in your evaluation of Roberts as a second baseman.

As for your list, it sort of proves my point. At worst, Roberts is one of the ten best at his position. I personally would not include Weeks on the list, at least not yet. I was also wondering why you included Phillips, until I checked his numbers. He had a breakout season last year and the fact he did pretty good the year previously is a good indication he's finally put it together and living up to the expectations. Upton doesn't show up as a 2nd baseman, so I didn't look at his numbers. From what I recall he's a Soriano type. A great athlete and a good bat looking for a position to play. Don't think 2nd base is it, unless you don't mind an error machine there.

I think I'd put Uggla on the list. He is a different type of player than Roberts. More a slugger, like Davey Johnson or Jeff Kent. I haven't paid attention to Kendricks. If he does as well this year, then he too belongs.

by timg56 on Feb 13, 2008 10:23 AM EST up reply actions

So he's in the 67th percentile

My problem was that we are using a year that is a deviation from his mean. (whether his mean is influenced too heavily by outliers/bad years at the beginning is up for debate). Also he's aging. Upton played about 50 games at 2b. Weeks had a higher OPS than Roberts. The guy can hit and fly on the basepaths. He snuck up on me. Phillips has always played 2b, he actually moved over from SS. He's okay in the field but not very good, but can play. Howie Kendrick is the future at the position, batting titles are a good possibility.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 13, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

upton

played less than 1/2 his games at 2b.

So, I said, uh, lama: how about a little something for the effort?

by jq higgins on Feb 12, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

off topic

I'm gonna be in baltimore for opening day, being from buffalo when i usually visit bmore i just go to the pavilion or espn zone before and after the game, any locals have any suggestions as to where to tailgate before the game, or is it more or less just a parking lot type deal if anything. any suggestions would be great, thanks guys

Some people ask me what I do during winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Roger Hornsby

by dulak8 on Feb 10, 2008 12:22 PM EST reply actions

Cross Street Market

in Federal Hill. Do like the locals, go to Nick's and order some steamed shrimp and a pitcher of beer, get a little rowdy then walk over to the stadium.

"Everyone always says 'You don't have to do this.'"

by Jonnypops on Feb 10, 2008 1:29 PM EST up reply actions

ESPN Zone??

Ugh - as if the channel wasn't bad enough.

Look, if you want real local flavor, go to Faidley's in Lexington Market. It's only about 3 blocks north of the stadium. You can get raw oysters, cold beer, and one of the best crabcakes you've ever had, then walk down to the game one very satisfied tourist. Plus you'll have something to tell people about your trip that doesn't involve the word "harborplace".

Our fans are better than yours.

by OEutaw on Feb 10, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

perfect

thats the exact kinda place i was looking for, do they get packed on gamedays or should i be able to get a seat if i get there a few hours before the beginning of the game.

Some people ask me what I do during winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Roger Hornsby

by dulak8 on Feb 11, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions

No problem.

They do get packed on OD, but you're in luck - there are no seats. :-) You either stand at the oyster bar or you stand at the tables. It's a really good atmosphere. A true cross-section of society rubbing elbows while downing some fantastic seafood. Maybe I'll see you there.

Our fans are better than yours.

by OEutaw on Feb 11, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

Scalping tix?

Because the O's are only selling Opening Day tix to season or partial season ticket holders.

I remember 14 straight foul balls in one at-bat.

by duck on Feb 10, 2008 6:58 PM EST up reply actions

Tix

I bought a four game package that includes Opening Day tix. The drawback is that all tickets must be used by May, but I should have no problem attending 4 early season games.

by RobG on Feb 10, 2008 9:36 PM EST up reply actions

UPDATE:

The Daily Herald of Arlington Heights, Ill., said the Cubs are still interested in Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts. Last month, the Chicago Tribune said it was just a matter of time before Roberts landed in Chicago, but the Daily Herald, citing Cubs sources, said the teams haven't gotten serious about discussing specific players. Cubs general manager Jim Hendry will talk to Orioles president Andy MacPhail this week.

LINK

Our fans are better than yours.

by OEutaw on Feb 10, 2008 5:50 PM EST reply actions