I first posted this on minorleagueball, under the organizational depth chart thread. I thought it would be a good idea to post it here and see what everyone thinks about some of the O's prospects, and see if I missed anyone, or was way off in any of my grades.

Catcher

Matt Wieters, 22, (A+/AA) 331 ABs- .351/.453/.592 21HR GRADE- A
Caleb Joseph, 22, (SS A) 136 ABs- .279/.318/.404 2HR GRADE- C

Everyone here knows what type of numbers Wieters has put up this season. He has not only hit for power, but he has done so while showing good plate discipline and limiting his strikeouts; as evidenced by his 1:1 K/BB ratio. Making him an even more impressive prospect is the fact that by all acounts he is a solid defensive catcher. The only thing that stands between him and the starting catching job in Baltimore next year could be the Orioles’ desire to prevent the arbitration clock from starting, but I would be surprised if Ramon Hernandez was not dealt in the off-season to make room for Matt. Behind Wieters the Orioles don’t have much in the way of catching prospects. The only even fringe prospect the Orioles have is Caleb Joseph, their 7th round pick in this years draft. Joseph is having a solid first year in pro ball, although at 22 he is old for the league. That being said at 6’3” 180 Caleb has plenty of room to fill out, and scouts say he is fairly athletic. I like Joseph, and think that he could eventually become a solid back up catcher.

First Base

Brandon Snyder, 21, (A+) 328 ABs- .293/.335/.473 10HR GRADE- B-
Chris Vinyard, 22, (A+) 326 ABs- .245/.340/.383 12HR GRADE- C-

The Orioles took Snyder with their first round pick in 2005. Since then Snyder has not flown through the minors like many of the other highly touted high school players of the 2005 draft, but he has not been a bust by any stretch either. Drafted as a catcher, and then moved to third, it now looks like Snyder’s long term home will be first. I’m cautiosly optimistic about Snyder. He won the Hawaii winter league bating title in the off-season, and after hitting .229 in April, and missing most of June with an injury he has seen his average climb almost to .300 at the outset of August. I saw Snyder play in June, and he had a real tough time laying off off-speed pitches down and out of the strike zone. Hopefully his increased production means he his pitch recognition has improved. Sndyer’s ceiling seems to be a 5, a quality major league first baseman, and it would huge for the Orioles is he was ready to take over the big league job in 2010, because with Millar a free agent at the end of this season, and Aubrey Huff a free agent at the end of 2009 and no other first base prospects in the high minors there will be a glaring hole at first base. Behind Snyder the Orioles don’t have much. Chris Vinyard is fringy prospect who has seen his production decline each of the past three seasons, and looks like he will never reach the majors.

Second Base

Ryan Adams, 21, (Low A) 337 ABs- .300/.355/.442 8HR 5/10 SB GRADE- C+
LJ Hoes, 18, (GCL) 87 ABs- .310/.439/.414 0HR 4/4 SB GRADE- C+

With Brian Roberts likely on the move this off-season it is troubling to see that the organizations talent at second is in the low minors. That being said the two prospects the O’s do have at 2nd are very interesting. Ryan Adams, picked by the Orioles in the second round of 2006, reminds me a lot of former Oriole farmhand Mike Fontenot. Both are second baseman from Louisiana who are known more for their bats than their gloves. Adams’ .300 average is certainly not a “soft .300” as he has 30 extra base hits this year, unfortunately he has 42 errors on the year, most of the throwing variety. The defense must be improved as Adams moves through the minors, but all in all I think his bat makes him a good prospect. The other Orioles second base prospect is LJ Hoes, their 3rd round pick in this years draft. Hoes played the outfield in high school, but has been moved to second by the O’s. Obviously it is waaaaaay to early to delve into too much detail about Hoes as he has yet to have 100 professional at bats, but the one thing that has stuck out has been his patient eye at the plate. In merely 87 at bats Hoes has already walked 20 times, while only striking out 11. Certainly a very encouraging sign for a young hitter.

Short Stop

Pedro Florimon, 21, (Low A) 180 ABs- .200/.260/.256 8/8 SB GRADE- D+

Ever since the Miguel Tejada trade the short stop position for the Orioles might be the weakest position in all of baseball. There are only stop-gaps and journeymen at the major league level, Alex Cintron, Brandon Fahey, Juan Castro, Freddie Bynum, ect…. And the minor league system is completely bare. Florimon will almost certainly not be on any prospect lists next year, but I included him here only to underscore how berift the system is of talent. I really know nothing of Florimon except that he is fairly young, he is 6’2”, and switch hits. I hope as an O’s fan that he is a wizard with the glove, and fills out his frame a bit so that he can at least get his average above the mendoza line. Finding a short stop will certainly be a priority in the off-season at the major league level, and signign Greg Miclat, the O’s 5th round pick out of UVA, should be high on scouting director Joe Jordan’s to do list.

Third Base

Mike Costanzo, 24, (AAA) 380 ABs- .255/.327/.389 10HR 2/4 SB GRADE- C

First traded to Houston as a part of the Brad Lidge trade, then aquired from Houston in the Miguel Tejada trade. Has not shown the same power he did for AA Reading last year. Strikeouts continue to be a problem, 128 so far this season. Projects as at best a platoon player, more likely a power bat off the bench.

Scott Moore, 24, (AAA) 287 ABs- .247/.321/.408 7 HR 3/3 SB GRADE- C+

Former first round pick of the Tigers. Aquired from the Cubs for Steve Traschell last August. Can play first and the outfield corners, and in spring training played a little second. Has turned it on after a terrible April and May. Should be in the majors for good next year as a versitile utility man.

Billy Rowell, 19, (A+) 280 ABs- .232/.303/.354 5 HR 0/4 SB GRADE- B-

Rowell was the Orioles’ first round pick in the 2006 draft, and this year has struggled mightily as a 19 year old in high A. Although the power has not yet shown as a pro, Rowell is still growing into his huge 6’5” frame, and with his sweet left handed swing it is only a matter of time before it does. While his offense should come around there is no chance that Rowell can stay at third. He has a powerful arm, but lacks range and quickness to play third. Long term I think Rowell will be a Aubrey Huff like player, a very good hitter who dabbles defensively at 3rd, Right, and 1st, but spends a majority of his time as a designated hitter. John will probably grade Rowell as a C+/C player, but I am confident that Rowell’s bat will come around.

Tyler Henson, 20, (Low A) 393 ABs- .275/.313/.377 6 HR 16/18 SB GRADE- B-

Henson is one of my favorite players in the O’s system. Drafted out of high school as a short stop in the 5th round of the 2006 draft Henson has been moved to third as a pro. Henson has been very succesfull on the bases as a pro, and projects to hit for more power as he matures. The major concern about Henson is his lack of patience at the plate. He has only walked 19 times this year, something he will have to improve as he climbs through the system. John will probably rate Henson as a C+ prospect, but I really like him.

Tyler Kolodny, 20, (SS A) 140 ABs- .250/.369/.386 3 HR 4/7 SB GRADE- C-
Drafted in the 16th Round of last years draft out of high school in California Kolodny played very well in his pro debut. Scouts raved about the energy he brought to the park, and baseball america dubbed him a “grinder”. Kolodny is far away, but a name to keep your eye on

Overall third base is the Orioles’ strongest position as far as depth with a prospect at almost every level. Unfortunately Moore and Costanzo do not project as regulars, and Rowell will eventually have to move off the position. With Melvin Mora a free agent at the end of 2009 the Orioles will have to look outside the organization for his replacement, because niether Henson nor Kolodny will be major league ready by then.

Corner Outfield

RF- Nick Markakis, 24, (MAJ)
LF- Luuuuuuke Scott, 30, (MAJ)
Nolan Reimold, 24, (AA) 408 ABs- .289/.364/.498 18HR 7/9 SB GRADE- B
Brandon Tripp, 23, (A+) 343 ABs- .236/.300/.373 11HR 9/12 SB GRADE- C-
Kieron Pope, 21, (Low A) 329 ABs- .228/.292/.392 11HR 6/7 SB GRADE- C-

The corner spots for the Orioles are in much better shape long term, at the major league level, than most other positions. Nick Markakis is entrenched as the right fielder for years to come, while Luke Scott has done a good job in left field since coming over from Houston. Next year with Jay Payton likely gone, Nolan Reimold will slide from right to left and team with Scott to man left field. On most days Reimold will play left, while Scott will DH. While the major leagues should be set at the corners for years to come the minor league system, aside from Reimold is pretty bare. Brandon Tripp, who came into the season with high expectations, has struggled mightily in the second half after being named to the carolina league all star team. Kieron Pope, 2005 4th round pick, has finally stayed healthy after several injury plauged seasons. While healthy Pope has shown the raw power that make him so intriguing to scouts, but has struggled to consistently get on base.

Center Field

Adam Jones, turned 23 today, (MAJ)
Matt Angle, 22, (Low A) 386 ABs- .285/.370/.376 3HR 28/37SB GRADE- C+
Kyle Hudson, 21, (SS A) DL GRADE C
Xavier Avery, 18, (GCL) 109 ABs- .303/.345/.367 0 HR 8/10 SB GRADE- B-

The Centerfield talent in the Orioles’ system is in the low minors, but with Adam Jones patrolling center their is no hurry. Each of the Orioles’ three centerfield prospects can fly. Angle, a 7th round pick in 2007 out of Ohio St., at 22 is a little old for Low A, but his ability to work counts and draw works, an essential characteristic of a good leadoff man is encouraging. Angle has little power and projects as a Scott Podsednick type player. Hudson and Avery were both taken in this years draft, and both are former football players. Hudson was the 4th round pick this year, and played WR at Illinois for 3 years. He signed quickly and started his pro career at Short Season Aberdeen only to break his wrist. Hudson like Angle is a speedster who knows his limitations and concentrates on getting on-base and utilizing his speed. Avery, the Orioles 2nd rounder, passed up a scholarship from the University of Georgia to play baseball, and possess the most raw talent of the three. I’m a little surprised the Orioles used both their 2nd and 4th round picks on very similar players.

Starting Pitching
Majors:
Garrett Olsen, 24
Has struggled in the big leagues so far this year, but has nothing left to prove at AAA. Needs to figure out how to get himself out of trouble. Still young and I look for him to become a 3/4 starter down the road.

AAA:
Rhadames Liz, 24, 60IP- 4.05 ERA 25/58 BB/K .252 BAA 0.74 GO/AO GRADE- B-
Pitched ok in AAA, but was hammered in the majors to an era of 7.47. Liz has good stuff, a fastball in the mid 90’s, although it is a little bit flat as evidenced by 12 HRs in 47IP, a change up that has sharp downward action, and an ok slider. The problem with Liz is that his command is poor and it allows hitters to sit on his fastball and hammer it. I think Liz will always be suceptable to the long ball, but if he can find better command he will have no problem holding down a rotation spot. There has been some talk of moving Liz into the bulpen, and that may be his eventual home.

Hayden Penn, 23, 94IP- 4.98 ERA 34/62 BB/K .279 BAA 1.34 GO/AO GRADE- C+
Penn like Liz, has good stuff, but his command holds him back. Penn has pitched all year at AAA, but has not been able to put it all together. Penn has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90’s, and a big overhand curve. Penn is still young and has time to improve, but I now see him as more of a back end of the rotation starter.

Troy Patton, 22, DL- GRADE- B-
Patton was a part of the Miguel Tejada trade, but was unable to pitch at all this year due to a torn bicep. John gave troy a B+ last year, and Baseball America ranked him behind only Wieters and Liz in the Orioles’ system. If Patton can comeback healthy next year he would be a major boost to the Orioles who desperately need starting pitching.
AA:
Brad Bergesen, 22, 117.1IP- 2.68 ERA 20/58BB/K .248BAA 1.55GO/AO GRADE- B-
Bergesen may be the exact opposite of Liz and Penn, he doesn’t have great stuff, but he gets hitters out with command and movement. Bergesen reminds me a little of Kevin Slowey, and I’m very interested to see how his stuff will play at higher levels. Many might see my grade as too low, but I’m worried he doesn’t have the stuff to become a starter in the bigs.

Chris Tillman, 20, 100.2IP- 3.67ERA 54/103 BB/K .238BAA 0.85GO/AO GRADE- B+
Tillman was aquired from Seattle in the Eric Bedard deal, and so far he has excelled in double while being the youngest pitcher in the league. Tillman has a projectable 6’5” frame and scouts believe he could add velocity as he gets older. The Orioles want to see Tillman improve his change-up in the minors, and will move him along slowly. He will almost cerainly finish 2008 in AA, and should begin 2009 in AAA.

David Hernandez, 23,109.1IP- 2.63ERA 55/129 BB/K .213BAA 0.64GO/AO GRADE-B
Hernandez has been absolutely filthy this year. Striking out more than a batter an inning, and holding opponents to a miniscule .213 batting average against. The feeling around baseball is that Hernandez has good, but not great stuff, but his stuff plays up because of the amount of deception in his delivery. Hernandez has struggled with command in the past, but hopefully thsoe problems are behind him. I see Hernandez becoming a solid major league starter, but not a front of the rotation guy like his numbers suggest.

Jason Berken, 24, 116IP- 3.49ERA 27/99 BB/K .262BAA 1.03 GO/AO GRADE-B-
A survivor of tommy john, Berken was picked out of Clemson by the O’s in the 6th round of the 2006 draft. Berken was on very few prospect radars coming into the year, not in the top 30 according to Baseball America, and John didn’t put him in the top 20, but did give him a C. So far this year Berken has been solid. Like Bergesen he has shown good command, 27BB, but has also shown the ability to strike hitters out, 99K. Berken has been a pleasent surprise for the O’s and should eventually fit into the back end of the rotation.

Chorye Spoone, 22, 41.1 IP- 4.57ERA 27/32 BB/K .252BAA 2.38 GO/AO GRADE-B
It has been a frustrating year for Spoone who hasn’t been able to get on track due to injuries. The O’s had high hopes for Spoone heading into the year, but he landed on the DL at the start of the year, came back in June only to go back on it in early July. At this point I hope Spoone can come back and be healthy for winterball or the start of next season. In my eyes spoone looks like a very underated prospect. He has the rare combination of low BAA, .200 last year, high strike out totals, and a high ground ball ratio, over 2 the last two seasons. My B grade might be too optimistic for many, but Spoone is one of my favorites.

A+:
Jake Arrieta, 22, 113IP- 2.87 ERA 51/120 BB/K .199 BAA 1.14 GO/AO GRADE- B+
The O’s invested 1.1 million in Arrieta last year when they picked him in the 5th round, and Arrieta has not disapointed. He has owned Carolina league competition, and is now off to compete in the Olympics. Arrieta is the only player in Hi A on team USA’s roster. Arrieta should gain valuable experience competing against some of the worlds best, and should start next year in AA. Arrieta profiles as a front of the rotation starter.

Pedro Beato, 21, 65.2IP 4.93 ERA 18/36 BB/K .290 BAA 1.27 GO/AO GRADE- C
Beato has had a disapointing year. He was a supplemental first round pick in 2006, and had a solid first two seasons, but he has seen his velocity drop this year. With lower velocity Beato has gotten hit hard. The Orioles hope the velocity will comeback and Beato can regain his 2007 form. Beato is still very young, and if his velocity comes back his grade could jump.

Brandon Erbe, 20, 120.2 IP- 4.40 ERA 38/122 BB/K .227 BAA 0.75 GO/AO GRADE- B
When Erbe is on he is close to unhitable. He throws in the low to mid 90’s with a devestating slider, and a change-up that he is working on. Erbe has struggled with the HR, giving up 18 of them. If he could cut down on the gopher balls his ERA would plumet, because his BAA is extremely low, and he had much better command this year. Erbe is a solid prospect who should begin next year in AA.

Low A:
Sean Gleason, 22, 114.1 IP- 2.68 ERA 30/82 BB/K .223 BAA 1.35 GO/AO GRADE- C
Gleason was a 20th round pick out of St. Mary’s college in the 2007 draft. I really don’t know anything about him other than that. I assume that he gets by with good command rather than great stuff, which is why he fell until the 20th round, but I don’t know for sure. Certainly seems like a prospect to watch. Hopefully he will be a draft day steal for the O’s.

Luis Noel, 20, 112.1 IP- 3.77 ERA 52/97 BB/K .241 BAA 0.93 GO/AO GRADE- C
Born in the Domincan Republic, prospect to watch as he goes up through the system.

John Mariotti, 23, 32 IP- 2.81 ERA 6/25 BB/K .174 BAA 6.67 GO/AO GRADE- C+
Picked in the 18th round of the 2007 draft, Mariotti was off to a great start to the 2008 season before he got hurt. He has just come off the disabled list recently and is probably the Orioles’ biggest sleeper prospect. The ground out to air out might look like a result of the small sample size at first glance, but it’s not. Last year Mariotti posted a 5.92 ratio in short season ball. Mariotti is a guy who could rise quickly.

Tony Butler, 20, 55 IP- 4.42 ERA 11/44 BB/K .273 BAA 0.84 GO/AO GRADE- C+
Butler, a 6’7” lefty was a part of the Eric Bedard deal. Butler got hurt in mid june and is yet to make a start. The injury is not believed to be serious, so hopefully Butler can return and have a strong final month of the season.

Zach Britton, 20, 117.2 IP- 2.83 ERA 35/85 BB/K .221 BAA 2.98 GO/AO GRADE- B-
Britton, the O’s 3rd round pick in 2006 is the best left handed pitching prospect in the system. He throws a low 90’s fastball, and a slider and change-up that are developing. A strong season in Hi A next year and Britton could have a B or B+ grade.

Short Season A:
Richard Zagone, 21, 23.1 IP- 3.09 ERA 7/30 BB/K .261 BAA 1.77 GO/AO GRADE- C
6th Round pick from this years draft out of Missouri, off to a good pro start. Overshadowed in college by Crow, could be a solid pick.

Brian Matusz????

Overall the Orioles have a very strong group of pitchers in the minor leagues. The group may only trail the Rays and A’s if Matusz signs. There is good depth at every level, and there is both depth and impact in the system. Tillman, Arrieta, Erbe, and Matusz all profile at the front of a rotation, while Bergesen, Hernandez, Berken all have the potential to make it in a big league rotation. Furthermore, the low-minors are stocked with prospects. Unfortunately for the Orioles as a franchise the major league rotation has been awful outside of Jeremy Guthrie. For the Orioles to compete in the brutal AL East it is their pitching that must carry them.

Relief Pitching
Major Leagues:
Jim Johnson, 25
Chris Ray, 26
Matt Albers, 25
Dennis Sarfate, 27
Randor Bierd, 24

AAA:
Kam Mickolio, 24, (AA/AAA) 49IP- 3.86ERA 26/52 BB/K .230 BAA 1.58 GO/AO GRADE-C+
Kam was a part of the Eric Bedard trade, and has pitched great since promotion to AAA, 1 run in 10.2 innings. He is a huge reliever who stands 6’9”. Kam looks like he could be ready to help in the O’s bulpen next year.

Jim Hoey, 25, DL GRADE- C
Hoey has missed all of 2008 while needing Tommy John. He has already recovered from the injury once in his career. He was poised to make a solid contribution to the O’s bulpen in 2008 before the injury, hopefully he can pick up where he left off in 2009.

Bob McCrory, 26, 28.2 IP- 3.14 ERA 13/26 BB/K .252 BAA 2.28 GO/AO GRADE- C
McCrory is a flame-thrower who made his major league debut this season. McCrory is limited by his poor command. If McCrory can harness some of his stuff he could be a valuable peice of the bulpen for the Orioles in 2009.

AA:
Wilfredo Perez, 23, (A+/AA) 66IP- 2.45ERA 36/81 BB/K .203 BAA 1.92 GO/AO GRADE- C+
Wilfredo is a left handed reliever with filthy stuff. He has a nasty curveball and a fast ball that sits around 92. Like many hard throwers he struggles with command, but he has the potential to be a left handed specialist out of the pen along the lines of Renyel Pinto of the marlins.

The Orioles bulpen should be a strength of the team for a long time to come. With a plethora of young hard throwing righties, including the return of Ray and Hoey from the DL there should be a lot of competition for the final spots in the pen during spring training. The Orioles are light on lefties in their pen, and Perez will not be ready for 2009, so it might make sense to slide Johnson into the closers role allowing Sherrill to pitch against tough lefties earlier in the game, and give the set-up role to Chris Ray.

Orioles system seems to be on the rise, but they have a lot of holes to fill at the major league level. One thing that I noticed is that the Orioles have the potential to be strong up the middle with Jones, Wieters and a good amount of pitching prospects. Short stop and second base need to be filled long term though.

I'm an Orioles fan who has seen two of the teams better young pitchers, and the two main components of the Miguel Tejada trade- Matt Albers and Troy Patton, suffer the dreaded torn labrum. I've heard that the torn labrum is a much tougher injury to overcome than most other arm injuries, and I was wondering what the chances are that Albers and Patton can come back strong in 2009. I understand to some degree it depends upon the pitcher, but I hoping people could talk about pitchers who they know have suffered the injury in the past and how they were able to comeback from the injury. Thanks