This from Will Carroll over at Baseball Prospectus (free through today, take advantage):
There is, basically, no chance that Palmeiro is telling the truth if he did indeed test positive for Winstrol (stanozolol). As for how it leaked: What doesn't leak anymore? If anyone cared exactly what Jorge Piedra took, that would be a bigger deal, too, and someone would have leaked that. Palmeiro is a big story. It was going to get out.
I think we all like Palmeiro to one degree or another. And I don't like to make it sound personal, but, Palmeiro's lying.
Of course I hope I'm wrong, I hope it's all a big confusion and a screw-up and everyone comes out of it apologizing to Palmeiro. But to think that's going to happen would be naive. I don't suppose it's entirely hopeless, though. I would give it about a 0.7% chance.