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Bottom line on Palmeiro

This from Will Carroll over at Baseball Prospectus (free through today, take advantage):

This is the same steroid that Jose Canseco said he used on Palmeiro in his book. There are few products that could cause a cross-indication of Winstrol in the system, putting more of a burden on Palmeiro's defense that he doesn't know how it got into his system. Sources tell me that further developments in the case should come public in the next 48 hours.

There is, basically, no chance that Palmeiro is telling the truth if he did indeed test positive for Winstrol (stanozolol). As for how it leaked: What doesn't leak anymore? If anyone cared exactly what Jorge Piedra took, that would be a bigger deal, too, and someone would have leaked that. Palmeiro is a big story. It was going to get out.

I think we all like Palmeiro to one degree or another. And I don't like to make it sound personal, but, Palmeiro's lying.

Of course I hope I'm wrong, I hope it's all a big confusion and a screw-up and everyone comes out of it apologizing to Palmeiro. But to think that's going to happen would be naive. I don't suppose it's entirely hopeless, though. I would give it about a 0.7% chance.