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Community Projection: Jay Gibbons

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Jay Gibbons had a sort of cameo appearance in Wedding Crashers, and he's also been one of the more debated players in our community. Some feel he's underrated, some feel he's overrated by those who say he's underrated. Some feel Gibbons is just Gibbons and Gibbons is OK.

He'll be 29 years old on Opening Day of 2006, and one thing I can say with just the numbers: He is pretty consistent year-to-year (including generally finding an injury). Jay's OPS+ numbers by year are 109 (225 AB), 109, 110, 74 (injuries) and 123. Last season was his best year by far, but Gibby really saved his numbers in the final month, plus a big May. His OPS numbers by month: .700, .995, .660, .808, .734, .985.

The only two months that Gibbons posted an OBP over .300 were May (.351) and September (.389). Those came with .300 and .333 batting averages. He walked fifteen times combined in those months, and 13 times the entire rest of the season.

What gives with Jay's BB totals? He's not really a free swinger. He'll work the count in his favor and he'll get three balls, but there are times where just absolutely refuses to take the fourth ball.

This is Gibbons' last season before he hits 30, so it's something of a make or break year. As long as he slugs .516 like he did last year, he's probably going to be useful. But if Gibbons has any actual impact player-type potential in him, it might be now or never.

Numbers from the last four years:

       AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   HR   RBI   BB
2002 BAL   490  .247  .311  .482   28    69   45
2003 BAL   625  .277  .330  .456   23   100   49
2004 BAL   346  .246  .303  .379   10    47   29
2005 BAL   488  .277  .317  .516   26    79   28

That's the line to project: AVG/OBP/SLG, HR, RBI, BB. Breakout year, down year, more of the same?