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Community Projection: Jeff Conine

Ah, screw it, let's start one up tonight.

Welcome back
Your dreams were your ticket out
Welcome back
To that same old place that you laughed about

Well the names have all changed
Since you hung around
But those dreams have remained
And they're turned around

Who'd have thought they'd lead ya
Back here where we need ya?

Yeah, we tease him a lot
'Cause we've got him on the spot
Welcome back
Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back

This might surprise you, but I'm fine with Conine being on the team. I think it's a bit of a waste of time to bother with Niner at this stage of his career and in the place where we're at, but I just hope he contributes some and does the job we brought him back to do as a leader.

Here are his last four years:

                AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   HR   BB
2002 BAL       451  .273  .307  .448   15   25
2003 BAL/FLA   577  .282  .338  .459   20   50
2004 FLA       521  .280  .340  .432   14   48
2005 FLA       335  .304  .374  .403    3   38

I always found Conine's loss of walk-rate in 2002 to be peculiar, and it appears to have been an aberration. Last year, besides the power loss, he hit very similarly to his 2001 season with us, when he went .311/.386 with 14 homers and 97 RBI and stole 12 bases. Conine also has been caught stealing five times in the last four years and they all happened in 2004. Otherwise, he's a perfect 15-for-15.

Like Hernandez, include ABs in Conine's projection. I'm of the same mindset that I've seen a couple of you mention before: The more Conine plays, the more likely it is that the team isn't doing well. So the line: AB, AVG/OBP/SLG, HR, BB.