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Community Projection Results: Conine


My line: 360 AB, .256/.305/.380, 5 HR, 26 BB

The community line (my projection included):

 AB   AVG   OBP   SLG      HR   BB
340  .281  .335  .400    8   36

The other day, when I put the post up to get Conine projections, I said:

This might surprise you, but I'm fine with Conine being on the team. I think it's a bit of a waste of time to bother with Niner at this stage of his career and in the place where we're at, but I just hope he contributes some and does the job we brought him back to do as a leader.

Now, my projection may make that seem a bit silly, since I clearly don't think Niner is going to contribute much. Our community projection is more or less calling for a slight dip but similar season to the one he had for Florida in 2005. My projection is lower, one of the two lowest we had, and I have my reasons for this.

1. Did you watch BJ Surhoff in 2005?
2. Did you watch BJ Surhoff in 2004?

Coming into 2005, I had no problem with Surhoff being on the team either. He was still a guy who could get himself on base and provided depth. I've done this before, when Jeff was brought back some weeks ago, but take a look at Surhoff's 2004 v. Conine's 2005:

   Surhoff, 2004 (age 39)
      AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   HR    BB/K
     343  .309  .365  .420    8   30/46

   Conine, 2005 (age 39)
      AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   HR    BB/K
     335  .304  .374  .403    3   38/58

Now, look at Surhoff's 2005:

   Surhoff, 2005 (age 40)
      AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   HR    BB/K
     303  .257  .282  .356    5   11/32

This is troubling to me. Surhoff was an anchor when he played in '05, and I'm fearful that Conine is going to be the same way. In both guys' cases, they're good guys that have done some good things for us in the past, and we'll root for them because they deserve it. But I also found it hard to not boo Surhoff last year, because he deserved that, too, at least at the time.

Jeff Conine is a nice human being and known as a team leader. After Cal retired, Conine was the guy that the rest of the team basically unanimously said was the leader of the club, and that's something to have said about you. I do hope he does well, but hope is a dangerous thing, don't ya know?