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Community Projection Results: Javy

JAVY LOPEZ

My line: 460 AB, .271/.320/.458, 20 HR, 66 RBI, 40 games at C, 20 games at 1B

The community line (my projection included):

    AB       AVG    OBP    SLG   HR  RBI  G-C  G-1B
   476   .288   .345   .492   23   84   32   26

I've got the lowest projected OPS for Lopez of anyone at .778. The highest is .913. Here are Javy's OPS by seasons over his career:

1995: .842 (333 AB)
1996: .788 (489 AB)
1997: .895 (414 AB)
1998: .868 (489 AB)
1999: .908 (246 AB)
2000: .822 (481 AB)
2001: .747 (438 AB)
2002: .670 (347 AB)
2003: 1.065 (457 AB)
2004: .872 (579 AB)
2005: .780 (395 AB)

I've got him basically on line with what he did in 2005. The community OPS projection is .837, a number he's reached twice since 1999, one of them a huge career fluke year.

I think it's a tad optimistic, but I can also see the logic behind those who think he'll have a big year. He won't be catching as much, and will likely be more or less a full-time DH, which should give him a chance to do little more than focus on his hitting. If that ends up being the case, I could see him having another big season.

On the other hand, Lopez is in a bit of a squabble with management, and, well, he's a 35-year old catcher. Whether or not he does much catching doesn't change his age.