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Projection v. Actual: Hitters

Miguel Tejada

                 AVG    OBP    SLG    2B    HR    RBI
PROJECTION      .308   .355   .524    44    31    120
ACTUAL          .330   .379   .498    37    24    100
Miggy had one of the quietest .330-with-24-homers-and-100-RBI seasons by a shortstop you'll ever see. His slugging was down, but he set a franchise record for hits and was one of the only threats in the lineup, so it's hard to really complain. He's an All-Star player year in and year out. What more can you ask, really?

This was the second straight year that his power dropped off pretty considerably in the second half, though. But despite going from 17 homers to 7, Miggy also hit .350/.402 in the second half. In a way, we may have been spoiled by Tejada's first year in Baltimore, the gaudy 34-homer, 150-RBI year that marked his arrival to the Birds. He's been superb both seasons after, but it seems like he's been a letdown in some ways. He hasn't. It's just our expectations being a little high.

Melvin Mora

                 AVG    OBP    SLG    HR    RBI    BB
PROJECTION      .301   .369   .489    25     89    60
ACTUAL          .274   .342   .391    16     83    54
Shit. Melvin is getting old. That .391 slugging percentage was pathetic. He still popped a few homers, but his doubles were down for the third straight year (41, 30, 25), and he had by far his worst season since 2002, when he hit .233 but actually posted a higher OPS (.742) than he did this year (.733).

Corey Patterson

                 AVG    OBP    SLG    HR    SB/CS    BB/K
PROJECTION      .261   .299   .432    18     19/6   34/119
ACTUAL          .276   .314   .443    16     45/9   21/94
Corey was a pleasant enough surprise, emerging as the everyday center fielder and a threat on the basepaths. He showed his bit of power to go along with it.

It's remarkable that we were 15 points low on his batting average, and thus 15 points low on his OBP. I didn't figure Sam would have him run as much, but they gave him the green light and he went 45-for-54 in stolen base attempts. Good on them.

Kevin Millar

                 AVG    OBP    SLG    HR    BB/K
PROJECTION      .275   .351   .434    14   52/75
ACTUAL          .272   .374   .437    15   59/74
Outperformed our expectations, which were that he would bump up from 2005 anyway. He did that. I've said it enough about Millar, but I hope someone listens: Bring Millar back.

Jay Gibbons

                 AVG    OBP    SLG    HR    RBI    BB
PROJECTION      .277   .327   .515    27     88    39
ACTUAL          .277   .341   .458    13     46    32
In 2005, Gibbons hit .277. This year, we predicted he'd hit .277. He hit .277. In 2003, he hit .277. Jay Gibbons loves to hit .277.

Gibby was unhealthy, which was nothing new. We signed him to a dumb contract extension, also nothing new. His walks were way up, though, and that .341 OBP was a career high.

Ramon Hernandez

                  AB    AVG    OBP    SLG    HR    BB/K
PROJECTION       418   .286   .333   .462    21   34/51
ACTUAL           501   .275   .343   .479    23   43/79
Razor did pretty much what we expected, with about 100 more AB than we predicted. He was a workhorse catcher, but that'll happen when Javy Lopez stinks and everyone else is even worse. We could use a quality backup that can hit a little to give Ramon some days off next season.

Brian Roberts

                  AB    AVG    OBP    SLG    2B    HR    SB/CS    BB/K
PROJECTION       596   .297   .372   .423    44    10    28/10   75/78
ACTUAL           563   .286   .347   .410    34    10    36/7    55/66
We got the homers right thanks to a late power surge, but his OBP dipped to rather crappy levels for your leadoff man. Roberts plays hard, but his 2005 was likely a fluke. His 2006 is probably more of what's going to be in line with the rest of his career. He wasn't bad, really, but he wasn't the All-Star he was the year previous.

And now, three guys that didn't last the whole season.

Jeff Conine

                  AB    AVG    OBP    SLG    HR    BB
PROJECTION       340   .281   .335   .400     8    36
ACTUAL           389   .265   .325   .401     9    35
Yeah, we were pretty much on the nose there.

Javy Lopez

                  AB    AVG    OBP    SLG    HR    RBI    G-C    G-1B
PROJECTION       476   .288   .345   .492    23     84     32     26
ACTUAL           279   .265   .314   .412     8     31     21      0
I thought the Javy projection was way high. I had him at .271/.320/.458 with 20 homers in 460 AB, which was the lowest of anyone, and he didn't even meet that. Javy went to Boston, was an abomination, and got released. He's either going to retire or look for a non-roster invite, probably. I don't care enough to upload Javy's roster photo.

Luis Matos

                  AB    AVG    OBP    SLG    HR    SB/CS    BB/K
PROJECTION       329   .272   .329   .405     6     14/6   20/52
ACTUAL           121   .207   .278   .331     2      7/0   10/21
I was low on Luis, too, at .254/.307/.371 over 310 AB. And again, the crappy player couldn't even meet my low-end projection. Matos stunk for years and it's a blessing that he's gone. He's another guy looking for a non-roster invite in 2007.