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Community Projection: Brian Roberts

Brian Bob, in my opinion the big one as far as our projections go. The most difficult to peg, perhaps, and the one that might require the most thought. We'll get this part out of the way first. Brian Bob's last three years:

       AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   2B   HR   SB/CS    BB/K
2003 BAL   460  .270  .337  .367   22    5    23/6   46/58
2004 BAL   641  .273  .344  .376   50    4   29/12   71/95
2005 BAL   561  .314  .387  .515   45   18   27/10   67/83

He hit 50 doubles in 2004, and 45 in 2005 with 80 less at-bats. Chances are had he not gotten hurt by that damned Bubba Crosby or had that minor injury earlier in the year, too, Brian would've beaten the 50 doubles and hit 20-plus homers.

The AVG/OBP lines were not that surprising, really, it's just the power surge. And it was pretty much all first half. Roberts hit .345/.416/.591 with 15 homers before the All-Star break (313 AB). Afterward, he hit .274/.351/.419 with three homers (248 AB). It's a huge difference, 237 points in OPS, 172 of it in slugging percentage.

But his walks were consistent (36 and 31) and his doubles were, too (22 and 23). He's still much more effective from the left side than he is the right (.949 OPS v. RHP, .801 v. LHP), but he even improved that greatly from 2004 (.767/.616 split). But even that just shows great improvement on both sides and roughly the same difference (148 points, 151 points).

During Roberts' hot streak, everyone was gushing. Baseball Prospectus, national mainstream writers, us, everyone.

Well, let's give it a shot. Here's the line: AB, AVG, OBP, SLG, 2B, HR, SB/CS, BB/K.