Since we're done with the community projections stuff, which was fun and I thank everyone who participated, I wanted to look back over the one thing that surprised me: We expect the pitching to be good. Not just better, but good.
Here is what the O's starters did in 2005:
IP ERA WHIP K BB HR
CHEN 197 3.83 1.27 133 63 28
CABRERA 161 4.52 1.43 157 87 14
BEDARD 142 4.00 1.38 125 57 10
R. LOPEZ 209 4.90 1.41 118 63 28
PONSON 130 6.21 1.73 68 48 16
MAINE 40 6.30 1.58 24 24 8
PENN 38 6.34 1.75 18 21 6
And here's what we as a community project from our likely rotation in 2006:
IP ERA WHIP K BB HR
CABRERA 183 3.79 1.35 178 77 16
CHEN 198 3.82 1.30 134 -- 30
BEDARD 167 3.70 1.31 147 55 13
R. LOPEZ 193 3.97 1.29 126 -- 23
BENSON 173 4.41 1.35 95 -- 24
That's a big difference. In 2005, one starter (Chen) put up an ERA below 4. We project Chen to repeat his performance, with improvement from Cabrera and Bedard and almost a full run shaved off of Rodrigo Lopez's ERA.
Now, I'll say this. It's not that I am arguing or that I don't think it can happen, but improvement straight across the board (except Chen) isn't common, Leo Mazzone or not. Bedard and Cabrera are both decent enough bets to put it together under Mazzone's watch, and Lopez has been inconsistent for his career and is an even years pitcher, so why not? Benson is the new guy, and we expect him to be the worst of the five anyway, though a huge step up in quality over the Ponson/Maine/Penn trio of '05, which is fair because the three of them were hideous.
Looking back over our numbers now, how likely do you think it is that our starting staff meets these projections? And if you think they will, why? Mazzone? Simple maturity? A little luck? Frankly, if our staff meets these projections, they'll be one of the best in the league.