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Community Projection: Rodrigo Lopez

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Lopez has been Mark Bellhorn-esque so far as an Oriole, having a good year when it's even and a bad year when it's odd. His raw 2005 line doesn't do justice to how frustrating he could be all season. The park-adjusted ERA+ he put up in 2005 (85) was worse than Sidney Ponson's 2004 mark of 90, when Ponson had a 5.30 ERA. Lopez started the season really good at home and awful on the road, and wound up average at home (4.15/1.32) and awful on the road (5.53/1.48).

I don't want to say his W-L record (15-12) was totally luck or just good support, though. The games he won he generally pitched pretty well. He was just terribly inconsistent, and I mean terribly because when he was off, he was off.

ERA by month: 3.98, 3.86, 5.93, 5.82, 4.86, 5.65.

Lopez's last four years:

        GS       IP     ERA   WHIP    K    HR
2002 BAL     28*    196.7   3.57   1.19   136   23
2003 BAL     26     147.0   5.82   1.57   103   24
2004 BAL     23**   170.7   3.59   1.28   121   21
2005 BAL     35     209.3   4.90   1.41   118   28
* also had five relief appearances
* also had fourteen relief appearances

That's the line: GS, IP, ERA, WHIP, K, HR. Does Roddy bounce back and have another good season in an even year?

This is the last of the rotation and our projections thus far are calling for a pretty substantial improvement overall. We've got Luis Matos and Brian Roberts left after this.