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Community Projection '07: Brian Roberts

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Just like last season, Brian Bob is one of our more interesting cases. First, his last three seasons:

       AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   2B   HR  RBI   BB   SB
2004 BAL   641  .273  .344  .376   50    4   53   71   29
2005 BAL   561  .314  .387  .515   45   18   73   67   27
2006 BAL   563  .286  .347  .410   34   10   55   55   36

So we're doing a big line this time: AB, AVG, OBP, SLG, 2B, HR, RBI, BB, SB

Here are a few things to consider about Roberts' 2006 season, too:

1. He still absolutely sucks against left-handed pitching, hitting .235/.332/.324 as a righty and .308/.354/.448 as a lefty. I don't know if anyone has SUGGESTED to him to just bat left-handed, but what on earth could it hurt? He really can't be much worse in a trial run as a lefty v. LHP than he is as a righty. This has been a career-long problem, and it is a big problem when there's a 150-point OPS difference and it's not, you know, .980 v. .830 that we're talking about.

2. He hit nine of his ten home runs after the All-Star break, and slugged .436 compared to .383 before. On the downside, he hit .296/.361 in the first half, and .277/.332 after. He had a higher OPS after the break (.768 to .745), but it was wrapped up in power, and marginal power at that.

3. He killed the Yankees in 2005, but had a paltry .625 OPS in 76 at-bats against New York in 2006. Roberts didn't shine against any of the divisional rivals: .779 against Boston was his best, and he was at .706 against the D-Rays and .687 against Toronto.

4. He stole 22 of his 36 bases before the All-Star break, making that the second straight year where Roberts started off swiping bags in bunches, and declined as the year rolled on. He stole more bases in May (4) playing in seven games than he did in September (3) playing in 27 games.

5. His OPS was 50 points better on the road than it was at Camden Yards, in essentially the exact same amount of playing time.