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Filed under: Community Projection Results: The Pitchers

This isn't pretty. But when's the last time it was?

Let's get started.


   IP   W   L    K   BB   ERA   WHIP

  103   4   9   71   44   5.66  1.62

Burres might win the fifth starter's job; he might not. Trembley is high on him thanks to his "impressive" 2007, which was impressive to the tune of a 5.95 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. Burres helped the team out in ways that have nothing to do with actual results, serving as a starter when needed, a mop-up man when needed, a long man when needed, an actual bullpen lefty (of sorts) when needed. He got knocked around, but maybe you can blame a lack of any role on that. How did he even know when he was going to pitch?

He was much better on the road (5.12/1.66 in 65 IP) than he was at Camden Yards (6.91/1.75 in 56 IP). He was hit hard by everyone, lefties teeing off at a .306 clip, and righties coming in at .281. His K-rate is OK; his BB-rate does not help him at all.

Burres' first three months were tolerable. It was the second half where he was ripped to shreds, posting a 7.92 ERA after the All-Star break.

I'd say something in Burres' favor, but there really isn't much. I actually think that projection is fairly optimistic.


   IP   W   L    K   BB   ERA   WHIP

  194  10  13   179  96   4.49  1.46

Talk about optimistic.

How many years in a row can one team and one fanbase be burned by a single player? Cabrera never really earned all the hopes and projections of potential stardom. He was brought up too early because the Orioles of 2004 had nothing better to do, and he's remained in the rotation save for a brief journey to the minors in 2006. He's walked 100 plus two straight years, his strikeout rate has gone down, and he just plain stunk up the jernt in 2007.

He was a replacement-level pitcher last year. He was no damn good at all.

That said, hey, electric arm, great size, he says stuff about using a changeup, and that's all well and good. When he proves it, start believing it. He's yet to come close to doing so on any consistent basis whatsoever. If he put up that line, I'd be happy with it. And I hope he blows it out of the water. If he produced, he's exactly the type of guy you can really get behind.


   IP   W   L    K   BB   ERA   WHIP

  184  10  11   137  57   4.28  1.35

St. Guts was one of the few enjoyable parts of the hapless 2007 Orioles, as he and Bedard actually had a period where they were giving us a fair chance at winning two out of five games.

His 2007 numbers would've been even better were it not for a very rough August (6.23 ERA), but his line was helped out by a pretty fair amount of luck on balls in play, too. Like Cabrera, if he puts up the line we're projecting, that'd be a success. He doesn't have ace stuff, though he's expected to carry the front end of this rotation. Should his success sustain on even that level, he could be a cog in the Baltimore rotation for a good while, though he is 29, which is a lot older than you'd guess given he was eligible for Rookie of the Year last season.

Most projections I've seen on Guthrie are not so kind, but it seems everyone is rooting for him to continue his success. It's been a bumpy road for Guthrie to get here, and when he got his shot with us, he made it a good one. The man still has a posse. Believe it!


   IP   W   L    K   BB   ERA   WHIP

  132   6  10   100  72   4.85 1.58

Looks like we're expecting the injury bug to bite Loewen again. He's long had durability issues, and while he's always had command problems, he was exceptionally wild during his 30 innings in 2007. There were starts where it seemed like he couldn't hit the strike zone if his life depended on it at times.

Unlike Burres and Guthrie, who are older than you would think at first glance, Loewen might actually be younger, as he's just now turning 24, and will be the youngest member of the Opening Day rotation no matter if Matt Albers beats Burres out or not.

That means there's still plenty of time for him to mature. Fellow Canuck southpaw Erik Bedard took a while himself, and was another guy that just couldn't shake nagging injuries that would disrupt his seasons. It's probably asking way too much of Loewenbrau to become another Erik Bedard, but like I always said about Bedard, lefties with Loewen's strikeout ability don't fall out of the sky. He's worth being patient with for the next couple of seasons.


   IP   W   L    K   BB   ERA   WHIP

  112   4   9   41   50   5.48  1.63

Every possible sign there is points to this being a final, disastrous season in the sun for the 37-year old crafty righty. While he was competent as an Oriole (4.48/1.56 despite a hideous K-to-BB rate of 45-to-69), he flamed out bad in his return to his original team, the Chicago Cubs, going 1-3 with an 8.32 ERA over four starts.

He came back this spring as a non-roster invitee, with pretty much a guaranteed ticket to head north from Fort Lauderdale. Trax is a good guy and as a low-cost, no-risk piece of a rotation that's destined to be disastrously bad through some growing pains, he's not a bad pickup. Again, the O's went with the devil they know. Someone has to pitch those innings, and you have to accept facts sometimes, this one being that any manager, GM, owner, and team would be scared to death going out there with a rotation as volatile and inexperienced as Cabrera, Loewen, Guthrie and then two choices between Burres, Penn, Olson and Albers. Trachsel is comfort food, in a sense.

That doesn't make him any less likely to have to be pulled after two and a third innings while he's getting hammered, but it is what it is. But you do have to wonder, if they were going to just go get Steve Trachsel, why the O's didn't offer Kris Benson a minor league deal coming off of injury.

There really is a very good chance that this could be Trachsel's last season. Through trials with the Cubs, D-Rays, Blue Jays, Mets and O's, Steve Trachsel only got to pitch in two postseason games, for the 2006 Mets. And in one of those, you may recall, he went one inning and into the second without recording an out -- along the way, he walked five, gave up five hits, and five runs were scored by the Cardinals, who would grab a 2-1 series lead en route to their unlikely World Series championship. Trachsel probably would like to forget that October night, but it's almost certain that that was his final playoff game.


Just among these five, we project a 34-52 record. We also project low innings pitched totals for three of the five, meaning we'd be seeing a lot of Garrett Olson, Hayden Penn, Matt Albers, Radhames Liz, maybe Jon Leicester, and potentially a couple of scrub pick-ups just to keep the chains moving from day-to-day.

But I'd rather watch this group than some of the bums that have started games for the Orioles over the last five seasons. Check this list: Victor Zambrano, Victor Santos, Jaret Wright, Kurt Birkins, John Halama, Eric DuBose, Dave Borkowski, Rick Bauer, Matt Riley, Kurt Ainsworth, Jason Johnson, Pat Hentgen, Sidney Ponson, Omar Daal (because we HAD to have a lefty, ANY LEFTY!), Damian Moss...

No longer are we trading this guy for this guy. It's a brave new world, one where there's a legitimate stockpile of actual pitching talent within the Orioles system. The only guys in that above list that had any were Riley, who was a flameout of massive proportions; Hentgen, who was long, long, long past his prime; Ponson, who is a story for another day; and Ainsworth, who was just another injury case.

They'll be bad. Most likely, really bad. But there's some hope.