(Put together prior to the games of July 2.)
A lot is made in the stats circles of baseball talkin' about luck. Pythagorean W-L records are pretty simple; it's just the expected W-L record based on runs scored and runs given up by a team. Often times, teams turn out to have been incredibly lucky. Last year's Diamondbacks and Mariners, for example. The D-Backs made it to the NL playoffs by winning the West division with a record of 90-72. Their Pythagorean W-L, however, was just 79-83; a +11 for Arizona's real record.
The Mariners hung around in playoff contention and finished 88-74 for the season. They, too, had a Pythagorean record of 79-83, so a +9 for them. Their luck had their front office foolishly believing that a trade for Erik Bedard would make them serious contenders this season, even though almost everyone on the planet was calling for the Mariners to have a rather serious dropoff. Live and learn, Bill Bavasi. Or get fired.
Through the first half plus one game of 2008, there have, as always, been lucky teams and unlucky teams. Below is a table with teams ordered from unluckiest (Atlanta and Cleveland) to luckiest (the Angels). Think of it as a golf scoreboard, except pretty much not.
Team | Actual Record | Pythagorean Record | +/- | |
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Atlanta | 40-44 | 46-38 | -6 |
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Cleveland | 37-47 | 43-41 | -6 |
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Philadelphia | 45-39 | 50-34 | -5 |
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Toronto | 41-44 | 46-39 | -5 |
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Chicago (A) | 48-35 | 51-32 | -3 |
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Los Angeles (N) | 39-44 | 42-41 | -3 |
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Oakland | 45-38 | 48-35 | -3 |
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Seattle | 32-51 | 35-48 | -3 |
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Arizona | 42-42 | 43-41 | -1 |
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Colorado | 33-51 | 34-50 | -1 |
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Boston | 50-36 | 50-36 | E |
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Detroit | 42-41 | 42-41 | E |
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New York (A) | 44-40 | 44-40 | E |
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New York (N) | 41-42 | 41-42 | E |
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San Diego | 33-52 | 33-52 | E |
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San Francisco | 37-47 | 37-47 | E |
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Baltimore | 42-40 | 41-41 | +1 |
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Chicago (N) | 51-33 | 50-34 | +1 |
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Houston | 40-44 | 39-45 | +1 |
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Kansas City | 38-46 | 37-47 | +1 |
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Cincinnati | 39-46 | 37-48 | +2 |
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Pittsburgh | 39-44 | 37-46 | +2 |
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St. Louis | 48-37 | 46-39 | +2 |
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Texas | 44-41 | 42-43 | +2 |
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Florida | 43-40 | 40-43 | +3 |
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Minnesota | 46-38 | 43-41 | +3 |
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Tampa Bay | 51-32 | 48-35 | +3 |
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Washington | 34-51 | 31-54 | +3 |
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Milwaukee | 45-38 | 41-42 | +4 |
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Los Angeles (A) | 50-34 | 43-41 | +7 |
The O's are part of the middle of the pack (-1, E, +1) that have played and gotten the record they pretty much deserve. We're one game lucky. If the team were to avoid injuries, didn't trade some of the good players, and played as they are now, chances are they finish around .500, a minor miracle season for a group that I expected would lose about 100 games.
AL East Standings, as they would be:
- Boston
- Tampa Bay
- Toronto
- New York
- Baltimore
- Chicago
- Cleveland
- Minnesota
- Detroit
- Kansas City
- Oakland
- Los Angeles
- Texas
- Seattle
- Philadelphia
- Atlanta
- New York
- Florida
- Washington
- Chicago
- St. Louis
- Milwaukee
- Houston
- Pittsburgh
- Cincinnati
- Arizona
- Los Angeles
- San Francisco
- Colorado
- San Diego