Back in February, SC proposed a Prop Bet contest in lieu of community projections. With the season over, it's time to review those bets. Check out the original post for the contest details. Here are the results:
|Over/Under, Nick Markakis HR total: 23.5||Under|
|Over/Under, Koji Uehara's starts: 17.5||Under|
|Who will hit more home runs in April: Melvin Mora or Aubrey Huff||Huff|
|Who will win more games in June: Jeremy Guthrie or Koji Uehara||Guthrie|
|Over/under, Felix Pie's on-base percentage: .315.5||Over|
|Who will start more games at catcher: Gregg Zaun or Matt Wieters?||Wieters|
|Who will hit more doubles: Luke Scott or Melvin Mora?||Scott|
|Who will make more starts: Rich Hill or Mark Hendrickson?||Hill|
|Over/under, Cesar Izturis' stolen bases: 21.5||Under|
|Over/under, Aubrey Huff's OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage): .840.5||Under|
|Who will have more strikeouts: Chris Ray or George Sherrill?||Sherrill|
|Over/under, Ryan Freel's games played, any role: 110.5||Under|
|Who will have less appearances: Danys Baez or Kam Mickolio?||Mickolio|
|Who will hit more home runs, total: Ty Wigginton or Melvin Mora?||Wiggy|
|True/False: Nolan Reimold will start at least 12 games for the Orioles.||True|
|Over/under, Adam Jones' strikeouts: 122.5||Under|
|Who will hit more triples: Brian Roberts or Adam Jones?||Jones|
|Over/under, Chris Waters' starts: 11.5||Under|
|True/False: Hayden Penn will start at least seven games for the Orioles.||False|
|Over/under, number of pitchers who start games for the Birds: 12.5||Under|
And now the final tally. It seems appropriate that the winner is a dude named math geek, don't you think?
|VB O's Guy||$4,000|
|Joltin' Joe Orsulak||$800|
|Coach of Earl||$-4,400|
Congratulations to math_geek! To see the detailed tally for each participant, you can check out my fancy spreadsheet.
- The largest single bet that was correct goes to PhilR8, who bet $11,000 on Felix Pie having an On Base Percentage higher than .315 1/2. Gutsy! That was also my biggest single bet, but I only put down $5,000.
- The largest single bet that was incorrect goes to silverstadium, who put all his eggs into one basket, betting $18,100 that the O's would use more than 12.5 starting pitchers this year. It seemed like a safe bet given the O's history, but they ended the year with 12 different starters. So close!
math_geek had the most correct bets with 15. silverstadium and Joltin' Joe Orsulak had the least correct answers with 13 each.
- Only five of us (wscott, Fred Sanford, cdavis627, NickMarkaces, and PhilR8) correctly guessed that Nolan Reimold would start more than 12 games.
- Though it was hardly a bold prediction, most of us knew Ryan Freel wouldn't play many games for the Orioles. 18 out of 21 said that he'd get less than 110.5 games as an O. Almost as many knew Chris Waters didn't have a chance, as 17 correctly bet that he'd make less than 11.5 starts.