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CC's 2009 Prop Bets Results

Back in February, SC proposed a Prop Bet contest in lieu of community projections. With the season over, it's time to review those bets. Check out the original post for the contest details. Here are the results:

Bet Result
Over/Under, Nick Markakis HR total: 23.5 Under
Over/Under, Koji Uehara's starts: 17.5 Under
Who will hit more home runs in April: Melvin Mora or Aubrey Huff Huff
Who will win more games in June: Jeremy Guthrie or Koji Uehara Guthrie
Over/under, Felix Pie's on-base percentage: .315.5 Over
Who will start more games at catcher: Gregg Zaun or Matt Wieters? Wieters
Who will hit more doubles: Luke Scott or Melvin Mora? Scott
Who will make more starts: Rich Hill or Mark Hendrickson? Hill
Over/under, Cesar Izturis' stolen bases: 21.5 Under
Over/under, Aubrey Huff's OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage): .840.5 Under
Who will have more strikeouts: Chris Ray or George Sherrill? Sherrill
Over/under, Ryan Freel's games played, any role: 110.5 Under
Who will have less appearances: Danys Baez or Kam Mickolio? Mickolio
Who will hit more home runs, total: Ty Wigginton or Melvin Mora? Wiggy
True/False: Nolan Reimold will start at least 12 games for the Orioles. True
Over/under, Adam Jones' strikeouts: 122.5 Under
Who will hit more triples: Brian Roberts or Adam Jones? Jones
Over/under, Chris Waters' starts: 11.5 Under
True/False: Hayden Penn will start at least seven games for the Orioles. False
Over/under, number of pitchers who start games for the Birds: 12.5 Under


And now the final tally. It seems appropriate that the winner is a dude named math geek, don't you think?

math_geek $14,000
PhilR8 $10,800
SC $10,200
punkrawka $9,400
Stacey $8,000
typozzz $8,000
duck $7,400
sickuvitall $6,200
wscott $6,000
wicked witch $5,600
dfa $5,200
Fred Sanford $5,000
VB O's Guy $4,000
Chanumas $3,600
balt-phila $1,000
Joltin' Joe Orsulak    $800
artmonk4ever           $0
cdavis627 $0
Nick Markaces $-3,100
Coach of Earl $-4,400
silverstadium $-18,600


Congratulations to math_geek! To see the detailed tally for each participant, you can check out my fancy spreadsheet.

  • The largest single bet that was correct goes to PhilR8, who bet $11,000 on Felix Pie having an On Base Percentage higher than .315 1/2. Gutsy! That was also my biggest single bet, but I only put down $5,000.
  • The largest single bet that was incorrect goes to silverstadium, who put all his eggs into one basket, betting $18,100 that the O's would use more than 12.5 starting pitchers this year. It seemed like a safe bet given the O's history, but they ended the year with 12 different starters. So close!
  • math_geek had the most correct bets with 15. silverstadium and Joltin' Joe Orsulak had the least correct answers with 13 each.
  • Only five of us (wscott, Fred Sanford, cdavis627, NickMarkaces, and PhilR8) correctly guessed that Nolan Reimold would start more than 12 games.
  • Though it was hardly a bold prediction, most of us knew Ryan Freel wouldn't play many games for the Orioles. 18 out of 21 said that he'd get less than 110.5 games as an O. Almost as many knew Chris Waters didn't have a chance, as 17 correctly bet that he'd make less than 11.5 starts.