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I'm about to lay down some depressing stats. Are you ready? This is the 28th series the Orioles have played in 2010. In seventeen of those series, including this one, the Orioles have gone into the final game trying to avoid being swept. That's 61% of the time. Of the 16 series prior to this one, the Orioles have been swept eight times and have avoided being swept eight times. So today is a very important day. A win today would mean that the Orioles are above .500 in games they have to win to avoid being swept!
Which Brad Bergesen will it be tonight? Will it be the 3E1N who pitched 7.2 innings against the Red Sox with 7 Ks and 0 BBs? Or will it be the 3E1N who gave up 5 runs in 4 innings against the Nationals? The Bergy who held the Mariners to 1 run over 7.2 innings or the Bergy who only lasted 2.2 innings against the same team? At this point, for me, the kid is a total crapshoot.
If I wanted I could do the same thing for Max Scherzer, but the difference is that Bergy is truly all over the place from start to start while Scherzer started the season poorly and has been a very different pitcher of late. Through is first eight starts, Scherzer gave up 54 hits and 34 earned runs in 42 innings (that's a 7.29 ERA). He struck out 26 and walked 16, and batters OPS'd .958 against him. In his last seven starts, however, he has given up 33 hits and 13 earned runs (2.62 ERA) in 44.2 innings. In that time framed he's struck out a ridiculous 56 batters (that's >11 per 9 innings) and walked only 17. In his last four starts, Scherzer struck out 9, 8, 8, and 7. Against the Orioles? I'm expecting at least 10.
Lineups:
Orioles: Julio Lugo 2B, Miguel Tejada 3B, Nick Markakis RF, Ty Wigginton 1B, Adam Jones CF, Matt Wieters C, Felix Pie LF, Josh Bell DH, Cesar Izturis SS
Tigers: Austin Jackson CF, Johnny Damon DH, Magglio Ordonez RF, Miguel Cabrera 1B, Brennan Boesch LF, Carlos Guillen 2B, Brandon Inge 3B, Gerald Laird C, Danny Worth SS
You know, I am all for getting Josh Bell playing time since he's up here. And I know he hasn't played since Sunday, but is this the best day? The kid has real trouble with lefties in the minors and real trouble with everyone so far up here. What's Jake Fox doing? Mercifully Corey Patterson is on the bench for the lefty strikeout artist (not that Felix inspires confidence in that department. Sorry, Felix!) Sigh. The more I type the more I realize it doesn't really matter; they're all rubbish. Max Scherzer is right handed. I knew that all along. It was a test.