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Community Projections 2011: Brian Matusz

By Stacey

Brian Matusz makes me happy. I know he didn't take the majors by storm the way some thought he would in 2010, but when you look at his numbers in the majors relative to the division in which he pitches, his age, and the fact that he only made nineteen minor league starts, it's easy to see that this kid is special. I've compiled a plethora of stats for you. Some are intended to remind you of how he did the last few years to help you in your projections. Some are just because I enjoy them.

First, his major league stats over the last two seasons. I personally feel the 2010 line is a bit deceiving because he, like the other young starters, really finished the season well. Unlike the other young starters, I am quite confident that Matusz will be able to repeat his success. Everyone likes to talk about how well the starters did after Buck Showalter arrived, and they did, but if you go back to Matusz's last three months of the season, beginning with his gem against the Red Sox on July 4th, Matusz pitched to a 3.63 ERA and held opposing batters to .225/.304/.359 and had a K/9 of just over 8. That includes the game he pitched after the All Star break on eight days rest in which he allowed 6 runs in just 1.2 innings. I know you can't cherry pick stats like that and expect them to mean anything, but if you do take that horrible outing out his ERA drops to just 3.01 from July 4th on. The kid is good.

Year Age Tm Lg ERA G IP HR BB SO WHIP
2009 22 BAL AL 4.63 8 44.2 6 14 38 1.478
2010 23 BAL AL 4.30 32 175.2 19 63 143 1.343
2 Seasons 4.37 40 220.1 25 77 181 1.371
Since Matusz only has 1.5 seasons in the majors under his belt, here are his minor league numbers for your information. Pretty.
Year Age Tm Lev ERA G IP HR BB SO WHIP
2009 22 2 Teams A+-AA 1.91 19 113.0 7 32 121 1.053
2009 22 Frederick A+ 2.16 11 66.2 5 21 75 1.155
2009 22 Bowie AA 1.55 8 46.1 2 11 46 0.906
Below the jump, check out some more stats and fill out the form with your predictions on Brian Matusz' G, IP, ERA, HR, BB, K, and WHIP. If you're interested, Bill James projected him to do the following: 31 G, 181 IP, 3.88 ERA, 19 HR, 62 BB, 154 K, 1.33 WHIP.

To submit projections on the players I've already written about, and to see the results so far, visit the corresponding Fan Post.

Here are the numbers that are just for fun. Matusz has made 10 career starts against the Red Sox and Yankees, five verses each team. His combined ERA against them is 2.49. Those games:
Date Tm Opp IP H ER BB SO WPA RE24
2010-09-20 BAL BOS 5.0 3 1 3 4 0.216 1.874
2010-08-31 BAL BOS 6.0 6 2 1 6 0.099 0.862
2010-07-04 BAL BOS 7.0 2 0 3 8 0.472 4.023
2010-06-06 BAL BOS 5.2 4 2 4 7 0.056 0.453
2010-04-24 BAL BOS 6.0 6 3 3 4 0.054 1.100
Date Tm Opp IP H ER BB SO WPA RE24
2010-09-06 BAL NYY 6.0 5 3 2 4 -0.068 0.155
2010-06-01 BAL NYY 6.2 6 1 3 5 0.196 2.061
2010-05-04 BAL NYY 6.0 6 1 3 2 -0.077 0.155
2010-04-29 BAL NYY 6.0 9 3 0 2 -0.026 0.256
2009-09-12 BAL NYY 7.0 4 1 2 3 0.117 2.681


And finally, because it's a hoot, here is David Ortiz's career line against Matusz:

PA AB H BB SO BA OBP SLG
David Ortiz 9 9 0 0 8 .000 .000 .000
Total 112 101 20 10 27 .198 .277 .347

 

 

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