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Before the start of the season, I ranked the crowded A.L East RF in the following fashion: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Orioles. Here is how they have performed so far this season (Stats at RF).
|
Team |
K% |
BB% |
BABIP |
ISO |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
wRC+ |
UZR |
WAR |
|
|
1 |
Blue Jays |
14.8% |
15.5% |
0.295 |
0.179 |
0.274 |
0.393 |
0.452 |
0.374 |
136 |
2.9 |
3 |
|
2 |
Rays |
21.3% |
9.3% |
0.289 |
0.175 |
0.246 |
0.316 |
0.421 |
0.324 |
110 |
7.6 |
2.3 |
|
3 |
Orioles |
12.2% |
7.6% |
0.313 |
0.126 |
0.288 |
0.346 |
0.414 |
0.336 |
111 |
-0.3 |
1.5 |
|
4 |
Red Sox |
21.5% |
6.1% |
0.293 |
0.119 |
0.238 |
0.29 |
0.357 |
0.286 |
75 |
4.8 |
0.2 |
|
5 |
Yankees |
20.6% |
5.2% |
0.313 |
0.109 |
0.257 |
0.298 |
0.366 |
0.292 |
79 |
-7 |
-0.7 |
Blue Jays (with more than 50 PA at RF)
|
Name |
G |
PA |
K% |
BB% |
BABIP |
ISO |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
wRC+ |
UZR |
WAR |
|
Jose Bautista |
73 |
309 |
13.9% |
18.1% |
0.318 |
0.207 |
0.301 |
0.435 |
0.508 |
0.413 |
162 |
1.6 |
3.2 |
Bautista has performed exactly as expected. A high walk rate, a low strikeout rate and a lot of power make him the best hitting RF in the American League. He is no slouch in the field either, registering 9-3 putouts two days in a row. Jose Bautista is the only player that has made my pre-season ranking look right.
Rays
|
Name |
G |
PA |
K% |
BB% |
BABIP |
ISO |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
wRC+ |
UZR |
WAR |
|
Kevin Kiermaier |
33 |
131 |
18.3% |
5.3% |
0.315 |
0.295 |
0.295 |
0.336 |
0.590 |
0.397 |
159 |
8.9 |
2.1 |
|
Wil Myers |
52 |
219 |
23.3% |
11.0% |
0.281 |
0.129 |
0.227 |
0.311 |
0.356 |
0.299 |
92 |
-0.6 |
0.3 |
Kiermaier had a grand total of 1 game and 0 PA before this season. Of course, I did not expect Myers to get hurt and Keirmair to step in and to perform better than Myers. Myers was not hitting well even before his injury, with both his BABIP and ISO dropping off a cliff. No one saw Kiermaier coming. He was on the edge of most of Top Rays Prospects lists, regarded as great fielder who may not have the bat to stay in the lineup. He has only hit 8 HR in 170 PA since then, more than he has in any full season in the minors in the past. His UZR number has matched his scouting report. The combination of surprising power and outstanding defensive ability has made him one of the lone bright spots for the Rays this season.
Orioles
|
Name |
G |
PA |
K% |
BB% |
BABIP |
ISO |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
wRC+ |
UZR |
WAR |
|
Nick Markakis |
87 |
401 |
10.5% |
7.7% |
0.310 |
0.115 |
0.290 |
0.347 |
0.404 |
0.332 |
109 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
To be honest, Markakis has not exceeded my expectations by much. His bat has rebounded from last season, but not by much. He is still hitting for very little power. He has thrown out a few more baserunners, which has made his UZR positive for the first time in five seasons. Markakis has not overwhelmed the prediction, but the others have underwhelmed by so much that Markakis appears to be having a much better season.
Red Sox
|
Name |
G |
PA |
K% |
BB% |
BABIP |
ISO |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
wRC+ |
UZR |
WAR |
|
Brock Holt |
18 |
83 |
16.9% |
6.0% |
0.361 |
0.208 |
0.312 |
0.361 |
0.519 |
0.383 |
142 |
4 |
1.1 |
|
Shane Victorino |
21 |
99 |
17.2% |
4.0% |
0.280 |
0.110 |
0.242 |
0.276 |
0.352 |
0.275 |
68 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
|
Daniel Nava |
26 |
93 |
21.5% |
5.4% |
0.246 |
0.115 |
0.207 |
0.258 |
0.322 |
0.256 |
54 |
2.7 |
0 |
|
Grady Sizemore |
14 |
58 |
27.6% |
6.9% |
0.211 |
0.056 |
0.148 |
0.207 |
0.204 |
0.190 |
9 |
-1.2 |
-0.6 |
Victorino was only healthy for 21 games before going down with hamstring injury. The Red Sox RF position has been a carousel since then, featuring a total of 8 players who have logged time there. Holt is the only one who has hit well, but he has spent more time at 3B for the Red Sox. I was dead wrong about the Red Sox at RF, but anyone would be given that Victorino has missed so much time.
Yankees
|
Name |
G |
PA |
K% |
BB% |
BABIP |
ISO |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
wRC+ |
UZR |
WAR |
|
Ichiro Suzuki |
49 |
185 |
18.9% |
5.9% |
0.365 |
0.047 |
0.292 |
0.337 |
0.339 |
0.302 |
86 |
-0.3 |
0.2 |
|
Carlos Beltran |
24 |
101 |
13.9% |
7.9% |
0.227 |
0.165 |
0.220 |
0.287 |
0.385 |
0.294 |
81 |
-3.4 |
-0.4 |
|
Alfonso Soriano |
24 |
86 |
31.4% |
1.2% |
0.304 |
0.153 |
0.224 |
0.233 |
0.376 |
0.260 |
57 |
-3.6 |
-0.6 |
I thought Beltran would be the primary RF and occasional DH. It turns out to be the opposite of that. This does not mean that the Yankees would have been better at RF if that was the case. Beltran has been terrible even when he is playing as the DH. Soriano has been released. Ichiro is his usual light hitting self. For the record, these 3 players are combined 115 years old. Maybe I should have seen this coming.
So I was right about the Blue Jays and Jose Bautista, but I was quite wrong about the Red Sox and the Yankees. I have the excuses of injury for the Rays and Red Sox, but I lucked into being right about the Rays anyway. Nothing has been extremely surprising, except for Kevin Kiermaier.