FanPost

2015 Baltimore Orioles Fantasy Baseball Primer: Part 1 - Offense

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Submitted for Camden Chat’s approval is the 2015 Orioles Fantasy Baseball Primer. I have combined my own personal predictions with information from Fangraphs, ESPN, Yahoo, and a few other sites to create a comprehensive guide to drafting your favorite O’s in 2015. Today in Part One, we look at the O's positional players. Gone are the dark days where one or zero O’s would eek their way into fantasy relevance! There are many viable Orioles' hitters fantasy-wise that you can choose from to fill out your squads. Apologies in advance for the length so let’s get right to it. I look forward to feedback in the comments!

A few notes and definitions before we get started:

1. These are my personal opinions based on a 12-team, non-keeper, standard 5x5 rotisserie league. That’s R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG; W, K, SV, ERA, WHIP for stats.

2. ADP = Average Draft Position for Snake Drafting Leagues.

3. ADV = Average Draft Value for Auction Drafting Leagues.

4. "Bullish" – A mid to late round draft pick that I expect to outperform their draft position, providing solid draft day value.

5. "Bearish" – A high to mid round draft pick that I expect to fall short of expectations and possibly ruin your fantasy dreams.

6. "Sleeper" – A late round or undrafted player with perceived high upside.

7. Maybe the most important note of all – This is an objective article which assumes that you are drafting with an objective group of friends in your league. If you are drafting in a pro-Orioles league, as I suspect most of you are, you are going to end up paying the gold price or maybe even the iron price if you want to have a Bird on your team. Expect to bump an Oriole up your draft board if you are hell bent on having your favorite player. Personally, I typically refuse to overpay in these situations, opting for the ol’ Dan Duquette wanking motion instead. But fantasy is supposed to be fun! If you really want someone, go for it and adjust for it later in the game.

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Matt Wieters – C

ESPN 2015 Positional Ranking: 9th (ADP: 179; ADV: $2)

Yahoo 2015 Positional Ranking: 9th (ADP: 181; ADV: $2.7

Matt Wieters put up an impressive .500 slugging percentage in 2014 and ranked as one of the best players period in fantasy, before losing playing time and eventually going down with a UCL injury. Prior to that, he was a steady and reliable bet at the catcher position. He belted 20+ homers in three straight years from 2011-2013, ranking first among all catchers in 2013 despite a disappointing batting average. This season, look for Wieters to continue his early 2014 mashing in his contract year. He should get plenty of at bats in the heart of a dangerous lineup, and R/RBI chances will be plentiful. The catcher pool in 2015 goes 1. Buster Posey, and then a whole bunch of who the hell knows. Short memories have Wieters presently going in drafts at what I believe to be a tremendously discounted rate. Invest with confidence.

My Top Five: 1. Buster Posey 2. Evan Gattis 3. Jonathan Lucroy 4. Devin Mesoraco 5. Matt Wieters

Bullish: Matt Wieters

Bearish: Salvador Perez (Has not yet realized power potential, Still in weak lineup and pitcher-friendly home park)

Sleeper: Mike Zunino (Much better lineup will afford him more RBI’s from the 5/6 spot; Take the HR + RBI at the expense of R + Avg)

Chris Davis – 1B

ESPN 2015 Positional Ranking: 12th (ADP: 75; ADV: $15)

Yahoo 2015 Positional Ranking: 19th (ADP: 113; ADV: $13.6)

Chris Davis followed up a performance as one of the most valuable fantasy picks of 2013 (#22 preseason 1B, #1 overall) with being one of the least valuable in 2014 (#2 preseason 1B, #20 overall). As such it’s difficult to project him, but I think both ESPN and Yahoo have struck a happy medium this year. National, local, and Camden Chat writers alike seem to think the real Chris Davis is closer to the 2012 version. That puts him squarely in the second tier of fantasy first baseman, which is still overall more valuable than most of your top picks at other positions. Expect an 80-30-80 season with a poor but bearable batting average. I like the ceiling and would probably pick him ahead of similarly-ranked players like Frazier, Votto, or Carlos Santana.

My Top Five: 1. Miguel Cabrera 2. Paul Goldschmidt 3. Edwin Encarnacion 4. Jose Abreu 5. Anthony Rizzo

Bullish: Prince Fielder (As big a discount as you’ll ever get for him. Reported to be ready for Spring Training.)

Bearish: Lucas Duda (2014 seems like an outlier. Bad platoon splits may re-emerge. In a bad lineup and pitcher-friendly home park.)

Sleeper: Brandon Belt (Solid when he played the last two years. Looked like a star in 2014 before injuries took hold.)

Jonathan Schoop – 2B

ESPN 2015 Positional Ranking: 27th (ADP: NA; ADV: $0)

Yahoo 2015 Positional Ranking: NA (ADP: NA; ADV: $1.4)

Birdland has high hopes for Jonathan Schoop, but at present he does not register on the fantasy radar. His power potential (4th in HR among 2014 2B) would make him an attractive option at SS or Catcher. But the 2B position is surprisingly deep this year, and there are safer late round fliers than Schoop. Personally, I don’t see his ceiling as being high enough to warrant even a last round pick on him in 2015. But if you like him, go for it. He probably has the same chance of putting up 60-70 Runs, 15 HR, and 60-70 RBI as about a dozen other second basemen, which would have him hovering around being a Top 10-15 2B. If you want to hedge your bets on Schoop, I suggest taking a stable vet like Kendrick or Murphy a few picks before grabbing Schoop at the end of your draft.

My Top Five: 1. Jose Altuve 2. Anthony Rendon 3. Robinson Cano 4. Ian Kinsler 5. Jason Kipnis

Bullish: Kolten Wong (Roller coast rookie season ended on a high note.)

Bearish: Brian Dozier (Unsustainable Run total overinflates 2014 value.)

Sleeper: Javier Baez (Wild swing with tremendous raw power. The ceiling and floor are both insane.)

JJ Hardy – SS

ESPN 2015 Positional Ranking: 19th (ADP: 271; ADV: $1)

Yahoo 2015 Positional Ranking: 17th (ADP: 239; ADV: $1.1)

The Shortstop position is so weak this year, yet Hardy still comes in underrated. Prior to an injury-riddled 2014 he was one of the best hitting shortstops in baseball for three seasons, leading all SS’s in home runs in 2011 and 2013. In fact, he has more R, HR, and RBI than perennial fantasy draft mistake Troy Tulowitzki from 2011-2014. But don’t go drafting him before Troy just yet. He’s getting older, and is still at best a two category contributor (HR/RBI). If you don’t take a SS early in the draft and find yourself needing power more than speed at its end, Hardy is your guy. I think if he can avoid a major injury, he finishes the season somewhere around the 8-12th ranked SS, making him a very good ROI based on his current rankings.

My Top Five: 1. Ian Desmond 2. Jose Reyes 3. Hanley Ramirez 4. Troy Tulowitzki 5. Jimmy Rollins

Bullish: Jhonny Peralta (More reliable JJ Hardy. 1 of 3 SS’s to hit 20+ home runs in 2014. Price is right.)

Bearish: Troy Tulowitski (You will, at best, get fair value for the draft price. Downside is cataclysmic at current ADP.)

Sleeper: Jean Segura (As good a bet as anyone to rebound in 2015, but has to bat leadoff.)

Manny Machado – 3B

ESPN 2015 Positional Ranking: 11th (ADP: 105; ADV: $12)

Yahoo 2015 Positional Ranking: 14th (ADP: 123; ADV: $7.0)

While Manny has been healthy over the last two years, he has been one of the best hitters in baseball. Per ESPN, he hit .307/.350/.505 over his last 55 games last year. He’s still only 22 years old and the sky is still the limit. Fangraphs loves him as a buy low candidate. However, injuries are starting to be a major concern. Power is becoming scare at the 3B position, and Manny is entrenched in a glut of second tier options that are all likely to put up decent but unspectacular totals in each category excluding stolen bases. I think there are safer options around him on the draft board, and his hitting ceiling probably isn’t high enough this year to risk the injuries. He will be a monster if he refines his power stroke in his early 20’s.

My Top Five: 1. Adrian Beltre 2. Anthony Rendon 3. Josh Donaldson 4. Evan Longoria 5. Kyle Seager

Bullish: Nolan Arenado (Injuries stopped a breakout season in 2014. Power is real. Coors Field doesn’t hurt.)

Bearish: Todd Frazier (I don’t see his HR and SB numbers maintaining. Peripherals were largely unchanged over last three years.)

Sleeper: Kris Bryant (Obvious answer, but the right one if he’s still there late in the draft. Though I wouldn’t get in a bidding war for a guy projected to start the season in the minors.)

Adam Jones – OF

ESPN 2015 Positional Ranking: 6th (ADP: 15; ADV: $37)

Yahoo 2015 Positional Ranking: 6th (ADP: 9; ADV: $41.5)

Make no mistake about it – Adam Jones is one of the best and most reliable players in fantasy baseball right now. You should have no hesitation about making him your #1 draft pick, and if he falls to you in the second round you got a steal. Per ESPN, he has hit above .280 with 29+ homers, 88+ runs and 82+ RBI in each of his past three seasons, He has only had two minor trips to the disabled list in the past five years, making him one of the safest bets in the game. 2014 saw the slightest of decreases in his overall numbers, most notably in stolen bases. This should be of no concern to you as he begins another prime year in the heart of a very good lineup. Jones’ value takes a slight hit if you’re in an OBP league instead of AVG, but it should be an afterthought.

Alejandro de Aza – OF

ESPN 2015 Positional Ranking: 84th (ADP: 361; ADV: $0)

Yahoo 2015 Positional Ranking: NA (ADP: NA; ADV: $1.0)

Travis Snider – OF

ESPN 2015 Positional Ranking: 97th (ADP: 427; ADV: $0)

Yahoo 2015 Positional Ranking: 81st (ADP: NA; ADV: $0)

Alejandro de Aza and Travis Snider project to be the starting corner outfielders for the Orioles this season. However, that is very subject to change before Opening Day. Both of these men will likely platoon with Steve Pearce, Delmon Young, and David Lough all season, severely limiting their fantasy value. De Aza intrigues me only because his speed makes him as good a guess as anyone to bat leadoff going into the season. If he can be a two category contributor (R, SB) atop a very good offensive lineup, it could make him roster-able. You could do worse with your last pick of the draft.

My Top Five: 1. Mike Trout 2. Giancarlo Stanton 3. Andrew McCutchen 4. Carlos Gomez 5. Adam Jones

Bullish: Jayson Werth (No, really! ADP keeps dropping with age/injuries, but he keeps producing in a good lineup. Great value for high AVG, 80 R, 80 RBI.)

Bearish: Bryce Harper (Ceiling is high, but injury prone already. Hype makes him an unproven, overpriced gamble.)

Sleeper: Rusney Castilllo (Plugs into the top/middle of a strong lineup in a hitter friendly park. Could be a five category contributor.)

Steve Pearce – 1B, OF

ESPN 2015 Positional Ranking: 26th 1B (ADP: 230; ADV: $1)

Yahoo 2015 Positional Ranking: NA (ADP: NA; ADV: $0)

Steve Pearce is another interesting late draft option. He was very roster-able when he was hot last year, but keep in mind that he did not play every day until the Chris Davis suspension. Though his heroics are legendary in Birdland, he still only accumulated ~50 Runs and RBI’s over the year, which is not going to cut it for a fantasy 1B or OF player. It’s probably not wise to expect a repeat performance from an aging utility player coming off of a career year. With Davis back and Matt Wieters expected to spend additional time in the DH role this year, he may once again find himself on the bench for half of the week. I would invest with caution. But like late 2000’s Luke Scott, be ready to snag him off the waiver wire if he catches fire.

Tomorrow, we will focus on the Orioles' pitchers in Part Two of the series.

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