FanPost

Chris Davis' contract is good for the Orioles

Right now Chris Davis is the worst player in MLB, and he has a shot at having one of the worst seasons in history. AND he's making $23 million this year and next year and every year through 2022.

This is a good thing, for multiple reasons. Here's why.

The Orioles need a complete rebuild. They should have done it last season, but Peter Angelos has only allowed one complete rebuild under his ownership, in 2000, and the terrible GM Syd Thrift screwed that up. This is probably why the Orioles didn't trade down again, as they should have, until Angelos hired the only GM he has ever trusted, Andy MacPhail. MacPhail traded their best player Erik Bedard for Adam Jones and Chris Tillman -- and more! -- and that began the climb to competence.

Unfortunately, the Orioles are back to the organizational dysfunction that has plagued them throughout the Angelos era. GM Dan Duquette only has the power to tinker at the margins. Brady Anderson can recommend moves but doesn't have accountability for them. Nobody's really in charge.

The O's desperately need two things. 1) Acceptance that the time has come to trade every asset and start over. And 2) Somebody running baseball operations with the power to make moves and accountability if they fail.

Chris Davis' horrendous contract is a huge boost toward point 1. Right now this is the most important thing that can happen in the Warehouse: that the O's trade Manny Machado before he leaves, and Zach Britton if he's healthy, and Brad Brach, and (sorry) Jonathan Schoop (in his case, probably in the off-season), and every other fungible asset. They haven't done this in 18 years. They need to recognize that there is no other rational choice.

Davis striking out three times a day in the middle of the lineup accomplishes two necessary evils. First, a rebuilding team is better off losing so it can get a higher draft pick. By himself, Davis might move the O's draft pick from, say, 4th to 1st, which is an enormous difference. So leave him in there. This would be true for any bad team -- it's better to be REALLY bad than sort of bad, as the O's were for most of the aughts.

But second, the existential despair Davis inspires with his terrible, unmotivated play must be helpful in explaining to Peter Angelos and his sons how dire the organizational situation is. This is actually MORE important than a single high draft pick. The Angeloses need to feel the darkness.

As for the money, meh, it's not my money, or your money. If it really did prevent the O's from signing Machado, that would be terrible. But Machado has been openly flirting with the Evil Empire for a while now and has never shown any interest in a contract extension. He'll probably make $300 million this winter; maybe $400 million. The O's were never going to pay that, and even if they did, I doubt Machado would accept their offer if a Bright Lights, Big City offer were $5 more.

What Davis' contract MIGHT do is discourage the Orioles from pursuing other expensive free agents. Given their track record, I believe this is a good thing.

My only real regret about Davis' contract at this point is the opportunity cost. Davis is blocking first base like the intestinal tract of an older man who eats too much dried fish. Literally any first baseman in MLB would be better; most if not all of the starting first basemen in AAA would be better. Remember how terrible Anthony Santander was? He would be better (OPS .547 to Davis' .464.)

A smart franchise -- most likely any of the other 29 franchises -- if it were saddled with Davis' contract would immediately release him. Imagine a potential Davis trade. The Orioles trade Machado, Schoop, Kevin Gausman and $25 million to the Braves for nothing. This would be a nice starting point for negotiations. What would the Braves do? They would enjoy the succulent fruits of that deal and immediately spit out the poisonous seed, Davis.

Instead, the O's keep running him out there. What a REALLY smart franchise would do instead would be to try some freely available talent. Sign two or three minor-league free agents and give them a shot. Try out an aging slugger released by another team. Don't make any commitments, because 1B is the easiest position to fill. Don't put Trey Mancini there. I like Mancini, he's a legit major leaguer (unlike Chris Davis in 2018), but he's also a mediocre bat, so leave him in left field and take some shots with free talent. If you're lucky, you get a Jay Gibbons peak season, or if you want to look back further, a Jim Traber peak season.

The problem with this is, I don't trust the Orioles to do the right thing if they did find a semiprecious stone. They're rebuilding. If they got six good weeks out of a marginal hitter, the right thing to do would be to peddle him to another franchise for a potential future asset, and then give the spot to another 4-A player or another aging veteran enjoying a surprising career year. Like, say, Mark Trumbo in 2016. But we know what happened with Trumbo: rather than saying, thanks for the career year, the O's handed him a mini-Davis contract, blocking up that first-base digestive tract so completely that ... ewww, well, it's a nasty image, but it's appropriate for 1B on the Orioles for the foreseeable future. Might as well stick with the intestinal blockage we know.

Before I conclude, I want to say that Chris Davis' contract is good for me personally because when he signed it, I knew what a disaster it was and I came to Camden Chat to say so, and I was dissed by the non-mathematically inclined fans whose logic was basically: "Davis hits dongs. You don't like dongs? You so stupid. Go away." My personal validation on this issue is trifling and hardly worth watching Davis challenge the all-time strikeout record, but I do want to say, I told you so.

In sum, Chris Davis' contract is good for the Orioles because:

* His terribleness helps them lose games and earn higher draft picks

* His terribleness should help convince the Angeloses to completely rebuild

* It's possible that the Angeloses will consider the terrible organization decision-making process that led to this being the worst contract in baseball, and will learn from it to create a better organizational structure that will help them make better and less costly decisions in the future.

I know that last point is a reach, but you can't be an Orioles fan without an unhealthy dose of irrational optimism.



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