FanPost

Betting Against The Birds

The 2018 Orioles were a very bad baseball team. Some of the players on the team, at least at the start of the year, were not very bad at baseball, and some of the players on the team have lots of talent and promise. However, as a group, they were very bad at winning games.

The pre-season feeling didn't predict the O's would be that bad. People publishing their predictions seemed to think the Orioles would go about .500 on the year. It didn't take long for them to look foolish - the O's had won only 8 games by the end of April.

So what can you do with a bad team? Well, sports betting actually exists as a way to take money from honest people, but theoretically it exists to make sports games more exciting. Sounds that that's what we need for these O's!

Also, like many sports fans, I harbor the secret notion that I am cursed by the universe. Anything I want to happen will not occur, and, indeed, the worst possible reverse outcomes are almost certain. One need look no further than the championship trophies decorating the halls of the various Boston sports teams for proof of this.

So I came up with a plan. If I am cursed, and I want the Orioles to do well, what should I do? Obviously, bet against them. I couldn't possibly win those bets, and therefore I would force the universe to make the Orioles win. Genius! I was very wrong.

I used a betting website that doesn't ask for real money - it lets you bet fake money and makes you watch ads, but will let you cash out if you get over $100 - I know because thanks to the Ravens' Super Bowl run I actually did get enough to cash out.

Anyways, I started in Spring Training. Not from game one, but in the middle. My apologies for the strangeness of these charts - I'm just pasting from a google sheets document, and it comes out a little wonky.

Team Odds Win/Loss $
3/13 Twins -138 L -$0.10
3/14 Yankees -130 L -$0.10
3/15 Cardinals -151 L -$0.10
3/16 Mets -145 T -$0.10
3/18 Mets 108 W $0.10
3/19 Tigers -113 L -$0.10
3/20 Rays -103 Rainout $0.00
3/21 Yankees -201 W $0.04
3/22 Red Sox -130 L -$0.10
3/24 Twins -102 W $0.09
3/25 Phillies -125 L -$0.10
SPRING TRAINING TOTAL:
-111.8181818 -$0.47

Things started off well! In the chart above, you can see the team, the odds I got on the game, and the result. A W means the Orioles lost, and an L means they won. I was only betting ten cents per game, as a proof of concept. Remember, the goal was not to actually win money - I was trying to trick the universe into making me lose money so the Orioles would win. My sacrifice is your gain! You can thank me later. It worked in Spring Training. On to the real season!

March/April Team Odds W/L $
3/29 Twins 109 L -$0.10
3/31 Twins -105 W $0.09
4/1 Twins -103 W $0.09
4/2 Astros -221 W $0.04
4/3 Astros -247 W $0.04
4/4 Astros -196 W $0.05
4/5 Yankees -246 L -$0.10
4/6 Yankees -168 L -$0.10
4/7 Yankees -216 W $0.04
4/8 Yankees -201 L -$0.10
4/9 Blue Jays 101 W $0.10
4/10 Blue Jays -121 W $0.08
4/11 Blue Jays 104 L -$0.10
4/13 Red Sox -213 W $0.04
4/14 Red Sox -158 W $0.06
4/15/2018 Red Sox -206 W $0.04
(POSTPONED)4/16/2018 Red Sox PPD $0.00
4/17 Tigers -113 W $0.08
4/18 Tigers 104 W $0.10
4/19 Tigers 105 W $0.10
4/20 Indians -119 L -$0.10
4/21 Indians -183 W $0.05
4/22 Indians -243 W $0.04
4/23 Indians -195 W $0.05
4/24 Rays 105 PPD $0.00
4/25 Rays 121 W $0.12
4/26 Rays 112 W $0.11
4/27 Tigers 100 L -$0.10
4/28 Tigers 119 W $0.10
4/29 Tigers 137 L -$0.10
Mar/Apr Total: -70.24137931 $0.62

Oh boy. This fell apart quickly. I'm up Sixty-two cents, as my best laid plan began to go awry. Already, I'm not even getting good odds on these games against most teams, so when I "win" I'm only getting a few cents return on my bet. At this point, the season was already pretty obviously over. No reason to end the experiment, though.

May Team Odds W/L $
5/1 Angels -176 W $0.28
5/2 Angels -146 W $0.34
5/3 Angels -185 W $0.27
5/4 Athletics -141 W $0.35
5/5 Athletics -134 W $0.37
5/6 Athletics -160 W $0.31
5/8 Royals 133 W $0.66
5/9 Royals 117 L -$0.50
5/10 Royals -121 L -$0.50
5/11 Rays -122 L -$0.50
5/12 Rays -138 W $0.36
5/12 Rays 106 L -$0.50
5/13 Rays -106 L -$0.50
5/15 Phillies -123 PPD $0.00
5/16 Phillies -111 W $0.45
5/17 Red Sox -166 W $0.30
5/18 Red Sox -171 L -$0.50
5/19 Red Sox -184 W $0.27
5/20 Red Sox -203 W $0.24
5/21 White Sox 106 L -$0.50
5/22 White Sox 110 W $0.59
5/23 White Sox 117 W $0.58
5/24 White Sox 126 L -$0.50
5/25 Rays -142 L -$0.50
5/26 Rays -145 W $0.34
5/27 Rays -106 W $0.47
5/28 Nationals -132 W $0.37
5/29 Nationals 101 W $0.50
5/30 Nationals -214 W $0.23
5/31 Yankees -163 PPD $0.00
-79.1 $2.78

Yikes! I decided to up the stakes in a desperate attempt to turn the Orioles season around. Maybe betting ten cents per game wasn't enough to convince the universe. Fifty cents ought to do it! No, it did not. I ended up $2.78 on the month.

June
6/1 Yankees -172 W $0.29
6/2 Yankees -180 W $0.27
6/3 Yankees -176 PPD $0.00
6/5 Mets -121 L -$0.50
6/6 Mets -119 L -$0.50
6/7 Blue Jays -146 W $0.34
6/8 Blue Jays -188 W $0.26
6/9 Blue Jays -126 W $0.39
6/10 Blue Jays -135 W $0.37
6/11 Red Sox -122 W $0.40
6/12 Red Sox -179 W $0.27
6/13 Red Sox -235 W $0.21
6/15 Marlins 138 W $0.69
6/16 Marlins 131 W $0.65
6/17 Marlins 156 L -$0.50
6/19 Nationals -190 W $0.26
6/20 Nationals -205 L -$0.50
6/21 Nationals -295 W $0.16
6/22 Braves -176 L -$0.50
6/23 Braves -118 L -$0.50
6/24 Braves -174 W $0.28
6/25 Mariners -121 W $0.41
6/26 Mariners -141 W $0.35
6/27 Mariners -109 W $0.45
6/28 Mariners -155 W $0.32
6/29 Angels -148 W $0.33
6/30 Angels -148 W $0.33
-127.9259259
$4.03

June stunk too. Up $4.03 on the month. I don't know why I didn't up the ante again sooner.

July
7/1 Angels 107 L -$1.00
7/3 Phillies -151 W $0.66
7/4 Phillies -226 W $0.44
7/5 Twins -124 W $0.80
7/6 Twins -120 W $0.83
7/7 Twins -159 W $0.62
7/8 Twins -175 W $0.57
7/9 Yankees -228 L -$1.00
7/9 Yankees -168 W $0.59
7/10 Yankees -217 L -$1.00
7/11 Yankees -146 W $0.68
7/12 Phillies -109 W $0.91
7/13 Rangers -122 W $0.81
7/14 Rangers -102 L -$1.00
7/15 Rangers -126 L -$1.00
7/20 Blue Jays -144 W $0.68
7/21 Blue Jays -184 W $0.54
7/22 Blue Jays -209 W $0.47
7/23 Red Sox -165 W $0.60
7/24 Red Sox -169 L -$1.00
7/25 Red Sox -184 PPD $0.00
7/26 Rays -109 W $0.91
7/27 Rays -144 L -$1.00
7/28 Rays -104 L -$1.00
7/29 Rays -119 L -$1.00
7/31 Yankees -309 W $0.32
-150.2307692 $1.43


I did for July though, and the plan actually seemed to work! You can see that by increasing the bet, I began to convince the universe that it should stop rewarding me, and the O's had an annoyingly good last week or so, wiping out almost all of my winnings for the month. I only ended up $1.43!

August
8/1 Yankees -264 L -$1.00
8/2 Rangers -141 W $0.71
8/3 Rangers -159 W $0.62
8/4 Rangers -148 W $0.67
8/5 Rangers -129 L -$1.00
8/7 Rays -163 W $0.61
8/8 Rays -186 L -$1.00
8/9 Rays -188 W $0.53
8/10 Red Sox -191 W $0.52
8/11 Red Sox -248 W $0.40
8/11 Red Sox -198 W $0.50
8/12 Red Sox -344 W $0.29
8/14 Mets -108 L -$1.00
8/15 Mets -132 W $0.74
8/17 Indians -380 W $0.26
8/18 Indians -210 L -$1.00
8/19 Indians -278 W $0.35
8/20 Blue Jays -166 W $0.60
8/21 Blue Jays -145 W $0.68
8/22 Blue Jays -191 W $0.52
8/24 Yankees -174 W $0.57
8/25 Yankees -243 W $0.41
8/25 Yankees -193 W $0.51
8/26 Yankees -267 W $0.37
8/27 Blue Jays -141 L -$1.00
8/28 Blue Jays -137 L -$1.00
8/29 Blue Jays -114 L -$1.00
8/31 Royals -130 W $0.76
-191.7142857 $2.62


August. Return to form. Look at those beautiful win streaks! Up $2.62 for the month.

September
9/1 Royals -106 W $0.94
9/2 Royals -111 W $0.90
9/3 Mariners -204 W $0.49
9/4 Mariners -192 L -$1.00
9/5 Mariners -241 W $0.41
9/7 Rays -242 W $0.41
9/8 Rays -239 W $0.41
9/9 Rays -260 W $0.38
9/11 Athletics -191 W $0.52
9/12 Athletics -184 W $0.54
9/13 Athletics -185 L -$1.00
9/14 White Sox -113 W $0.88
9/15 White Sox -124 W $0.80
9/16 White Sox -120 L -$1.00
9/17 Blue Jays -137 W $0.72
9/18 Blue Jays -112 W $0.89
9/19 Blue Jays -127 L -$1.00
9/21 Yankees -325 W $0.30
9/22 Yankees -323 W $0.30
9/23 Yankees -295 L -$1.00
9/24 Red Sox -221 W $0.45
9/25 Red Sox -342 W $0.29
9/26 Red Sox -344 L -$1.00
927 Astros -259 W $0.38
9/28 Astros -246 W $0.40
9/29 Astros -237 W $0.42
9/30 Astros -244 L -$1.00
-212 $3.83

September. Mercy. $3.83 for the month.

So to sum up, this is what happens if you bet blindly bet against a historically bad baseball team every day. I ended up $15.31 on the regular season. If I had started betting $1 from day one, I would have been up $27.70. Not a bad return.

Betting systems are not designed for a team as bad as the Orioles were last year. You shouldn't be able to make money by doing what I did if the system is working. But, the 2018 Orioles were that shockingly bad. Their badness overwhelmed even my sports fan curse. Here's hoping 2019 is better.

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