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The 2020 Annual SB Nation GM Sim - Closer to Contention

It's that time again.

For the third year in a row, I was very privileged to run the Orioles as the faux GM during the annual SB Nation Offseason GM Sim. For those of you unfamiliar with the sim, it's run every year by Max Rieper, the editor at Royals Review, which is the Kansas City Royals equivalent to Camden Chat. The rules are fairly simple. We rewind to the end of the regular season, with Max giving recommendations for total team budgets and also acting as the agent for all pending free agents. The volunteer GM's make trades amongst themselves (a lot) and make offers to free agents. Max doesn't negotiate long-term deals, so a long term deal for an already owned player (like Means or someone) wouldn't be allowed. The entire thing is a flurry of activity and runs over a three day period.

Our recommended budget for team salaries was $64M. This was a significant decrease from last year, but with the whole pandemic thing that's been happening, a salary freeze was assumed for this year. Meaning that since the O's only spent around $64M in '19, that was the recommended budget I had to work with, running under the assumption that teams will try to keep costs down this offseason.

I was thankful once again to have a group of guys helping me out with this thing, advising on potential trades and free agent signings. Cole, Mitch, and Camden Chat's own Greg Oswald get gold stars for helping me out this year. We did a good amount of research and kind of settled on a plan. The O's aren't expecting to be competitive this coming year. With that in mind, we're expecting the contention window for this squad to open up potentially as early as 2022, with an eye to 2023 as well. With this in mind, our plan was very similar to the prior couple years. We deemed no one on the active roster untouchable, but this year wasn't quite the fire sale we've had in past years. We threw around whether we see certain pieces (Santander, Means, etc) as long term pieces that can help the O's in their next contention window. We specifically were shopping players like Iglesias, Alberto, Cobb, and some of the relievers, and we were definitely open to listening on offers for Means and Santander, for whom the price tag was obviously higher. Specifically with regard to trades, my plan was to target high-ceiling, toolsy guys (mainly with an international background), since this is how I feel the O's would go about their business in real life. With a plan in place, a future potential depth chart worked up, and a bevy of potential prospects to target in trades, we set out into the first day of the sim.

Day 1 - Nothing at all

Day 1 of the sim turned out to be a bit of a quiet one for us. We made what I consider to be a no-brainer move and picked up the option on Jose Iglesias at $3.5M for the coming season. There was a lot of activity around the league (which I'll recap the biggest moves at the end of this thing), but for us not a lot was happening. Houston, Arizona, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and a number of other teams kicked the tires on Santander and Means. Philadelphia messaged about Iglesias. But for the most part, everyone was focused on bigger fish. Big names like Kris Bryant, Francisco Lindor, and others moved on the first night. As the Orioles, and for the sake of realism, we obviously weren't going to be going after any of these bigger players. Maybe next year as we close in on contention, but for this year other than some very small deals, we had made the determination to mostly sit out of the FA and big trade markets.

Day 2 - All talk, some action

Day 2 was a lot of discussions with other teams. Our price on Santander and Means was reasonably very high, as both are cost-controlled pieces that we do see as part of the next winning Orioles team. We only wanted to move them if we got top-notch value, and for the most part we weren't seeing it. Folks were a bit scared off by Means' 2020 injury-affected numbers, and weren't fully buying in on Santander's breakout.

Means was by far our most-discussed commodity. We talked extensively with Oakland about moving Iglesias to the west coast. There were discussions of Means to Houston involving Cristian Javier that didn't end up going anywhere. The Yankees made an offer on Means of Clarke Schmidt and Miguel Andujar, which we passed on due to Andujar's struggles this past year. The closest we came to moving Means was to Cincinnati for Nick Senzel, but those talks didn't pan out. The Reds decided to keep Senzel, and as we were torn on the offer in the first place, that was good with us. Santander talks never got very far with any team, except perhaps Arizona, but we ended up not being able to come to any terms.

Move #1 - Orioles sign Free Agent SP Matt Moore to a minor league contract

Ah yes, minor league contracts. There is basically no such thing as a "bad" minor league contract. Moore is somebody we had identified early on as a guy who could be had for cheap, sort of a reclamation project who eats innings. If that's not realistic to the real-life Orioles, I don't know what is. Moore is 2 or 3 years removed from his last full season as a starter when he went 6-15 with a 5.52 ERA for the NL-worst San Francisco Giants. Uhh, not good. But he's a career 4.50 ERA guy with 900 innings of MLB experience under his belt. There are worse people to stick in your rotation when you're a rebuilding club.

Move #2 - Orioles trade DJ Stewart, Michael Baumann, and Cadyn Grenier to the Los Angeles Angels for Jordyn Adams and Arol Vera

Sometimes, trades that you're not expecting kind of just happen. Before the sim, we had made a list of prospects we were lower on, one of which was Grenier. The Angels put out a note saying they were looking for a RHP and that they could move prospects. They weren't interested in our lightly used Alex Cobb, and asked about Grayson Rodriguez which was a vehement no from me. Finally they tabbed Baumann as someone they liked, and they were willing to move a top prospect to do this deal. Two of them. I don't like losing Baumann at all, I think he's going to be a solid #3 or #4 in the majors. But for us, Stewart's path to playing time is somewhat blocked, and Grenier isn't someone we were super high on.

In return, we received Jordyn Adams (#73 prospect in the majors, per Fangraphs), who is a tooled up outfield prospect drawing Byron Buxton comps. He's got some swing issues which I think the development team here in Baltimore can easily fix, he's an 80-grade runner and potential 5 tool star at his peak. He's the kind of player I'd love to see roaming CF at Camden for years to come. Our secondary piece here is no slouch either. Vera is an 18 year old SS prospect signed by the Angels out of Venezuela in 2019. He's their #6 prospect. Projectable, expected to stay at SS and hit for power.

At the end of the day I was fairly happy with this trade. Feel like we sold high on Stewart (on the back of that crazy unsustainable HR streak he had), who I don't think is going to live up to his 1st round pedigree. Didn't like losing Baumann, but in return we got our potential CF of the future and our potential SS of the way distant future.

Move #3 - Orioles sign Free Agent RP Tommy Kahnle to a 1 year, $1M deal with incentives

A bit of a gamble here. Kahnle underwent Tommy John surgery in early August with a 9-12 month timeline for recovery. Relievers can usually come back quicker and so I'm projecting him for a 9 month recovery, which brings him back in May of '21, just in time for a couple months of trade deadline audition. He had a very slow market, and this is such a small deal that I felt it was worth the risk. Kahnle pitched to a very respectable 3.67 ERA over 72 games for the Yankees in 2019. If he can do that again, he'll be flippable at the deadline.

Move #4 - Orioles sign Free Agent SP Gio Gonzalez to a minor league contract

Similar to the Moore signing above, Gio is a potential innings eater signed on a minor league deal, and as such there's no downside to this for our club. Gonzalez used to be a star for the crosstown Nationals. Going back to 2019 he logged a 3.50 ERA in 17 starts for the Brewers. He's 35 years old, but we think he's still got something left in the tank. And I think he can at least perform as well as 2020 trade deadline castoff Tommy Milone.

Move #5 - Orioles trade Tanner Scott to the Minnesota Twins for Keoni Cavaco

A bold move here, as I made my seemingly yearly deal with GM TJ Gorsegner of the Minnesota ballclub. TJ is always awesome to deal with and I always come out of our deals feeling like we both made out well. Scott was a piece that I had a pretty high price tag on, and he was in the category of "not trying super hard to move him, but will listen." He really turned a corner this past year and finally seems ready to harness his stuff and pitch at the back end of a big league bullpen.

In return for Scott, we pulled in 2019 mid 1st round pick Keoni Cavaco. Cavaco doesn't quite have a solid defensive home yet, but could play 2B, 3B, SS, or even OF. I like him as a player who can move around the diamond and bring pop to the lineup every night. More than his defense, Cavaco's bat is expected to be the tool that carries him to the majors. He projects for plus power and has good feel to hit. Though he struggled in his first taste of rookie ball in 2019, I have high hopes for what he can do as he progresses through our system.

Day 3 - Wrapping Up

Most contending teams had addressed their roster holes by this point in the sim, which meant for us it was shaping up to be a relatively quiet few days. We had made some minimal moves, nothing game-changing like in past years. This year we specifically did our best to be as realistic as possible in our trades and signings. A combination of that, the budget freeze, and a perceived lack of interest in our players had made for a pretty quiet sim.

As Day 3 proceeded, we started to have conversations with San Francisco about moving Cobb's contract. Cleveland also reached out to us and wanted to help us resurrect our Iglesias-to-Oakland talks as part of a three team deal. Both of these talks ended up coming to fruition in the final hour of the sim.

Move #6 - Orioles trade Jose Iglesias to the Oakland Athletics as part of a three-team deal, receiving Junior Sanquintin and Nick Mikolajchak from the Cleveland Indians

A bit to unpack here. Our earlier talks with Oakland stalled out, since our war room of guys were pretty split on moving Iglesias in the first place, but also wasn't a huge fan of the piece coming back to us from Oakland (Sheldon Neuse). Cleveland liked Neuse, and I'm kind of unsure how the conversation between Cleveland and Oakland turned to us, but Oakland still needed a SS and we like Cleveland's prospects enough to pull the trigger. Losing Iglesias is tough for this team, that's going to need a good defense behind young pitching, but as said before, we're not playing for 2021 and there is enough depth in the system to cover SS.

The return here is interesting. We had our choice of a few names which were all somewhat enticing, but I tried to consider what the O's would do here in real life, and took the international upside play. Sanquintin has the potential to be a star. Almost 19 years old, he was signed by the Indians in the 2018 J2 period. He has the tools to be a true switch-hitting SS with power, he's projectable, and he has good feel to hit. Fangraphs has him pegged to make a jump to the top 100 prospects list next year. The secondary piece here, Mikolajchak is a low level relief prospect who hasn't gotten a chance to be much so far, but projects as a nice bullpen piece somewhere down the line. Obviously a small sample size, but Mikolajchak converted 5 of 5 save opportunities over 25 innings pitched with a 0.36 ERA right after being drafted.

Move #7 - Orioles trade Alex Cobb, Ryan McKenna, Robert Neustrom, and Zach Watson to the San Francisco Giants for Seth Corry and Dilan Rosario

Our last trade of the sim I'm still a little unsure on. I expressed a desire in the main message group to move Cobb's salary, and the Giants were willing to take it. McKenna was another (like Grenier) that we were slightly lower on than the industry. I will say that I think if I was the O's GM, trading McKenna would haunt me the most of all of these moves. His defense will play well for SFG in AT&T Park, and he's going to lead the league in triples a few times through his career, with that home park and the way his swing is crafted. McKenna knows how to take a pitch to the right-center gap, and he would be a terror playing in AT&T. That said, I see some 4th outfielder concern, and it's enough that I was okay moving him here.

San Francisco took on all of Cobb's salary, and we still got a couple really nice pieces. Corry is a big, 6'2" lefty who struck out 172 batters over 26 starts (122 innings) at A ball in 2019, with a 1.76 ERA. He carries some risk that he could end up as a reliever thanks to his mechanics, but his stuff is dominant enough to play way up out of the bullpen. I'd be inclined to continue him on a starter's path as long as he continues to do so well. The second piece here, Rosario, is a bat-first prospect whose profile reminds me a ton of Mountcastle. He's currently a SS prospect who's had some defensive problems, but he's projecting to hit for enough power to profile just about anywhere on the field. The biggest difference that I see between the two is the hands. Mountcastle's got very quick hands that allow him easy access to his raw power. Rosario's swing is a little longer, but those kinks can be worked out with strong development.

These two trades were made in the last hour of the sim. And once I cleared out Cobb's contract for '21, I was about $13M under budget. So just for the heck of it...

Move #8 - Orioles sign Free Agent RP Pedro Baez to a 3 year, $9M deal

I glanced at the remaining free agents with about 10 minutes to go and saw poor Pedro Baez sitting there. This guy throws seven years of sub 3.50ERA ball for the Dodgers and no one is signing him. Rather than sign him to the same deal as Kahnle, my thought here is that Baez is only 32 and still has a few good years left for sure. Signing him cheap for three years gives us a closer who would still be pitching here into the next competitive window, or who can be flipped for prospects at any point during his three year deal. Even if he implodes and doesn't pitch well, it's relatively low risk, high reward here.

And that sealed the deal for us on the 2020 offseason sim.

We made comparatively fewer moves this year than in prior years. We stayed as realistic as possible with what we did and I'm actually really pleased with how it turned out. Santander, Alberto, Means, and most of the crew stayed put. We netted 5 new prospects that go directly into our top 20 without losing anyone of significant value.

Our 2021 Opening Day Roster looks like this:

Starting Lineup Rotation
C Pedro Severino SP John Means
1B Trey Mancini SP Dean Kremer
2B Ramon Urias SP Matt Moore
SS Richie Martin SP Keegan Akin
3B Hanser Alberto SP Gio Gonzalez
LF Ryan Mountcastle
CF Austin Hays Bullpen
RF Anthony Santander RP Pedro Baez
DH Renato Nunez RP Tommy Kahnle
RP Hunter Harvey
Bench RP Paul Fry
C Chance Sisco RP Shawn Armstrong
IF Pat Valaika RP Dillon Tate
IF Rio Ruiz RP Cesar Valdez
OF Cedric Mullins RP Jorge Lopez

Not being a huge fan of Rio Ruiz, and not being a huge fan of Renato Nunez's defense, we made the determination that Ramon Urias deserves a bit of an extended look at 2B, moving Hanser to 3rd. We considered Rylan Bannon, but figured we'd give him a bit more seasoning at Norfolk.

By 2023 things are looking much rosier, and this is before we consider any potential free agent signings:

Starting Lineup Rotation
C Adley Rutschman SP Grayson Rodriguez
1B Ryan Mountcastle SP John Means
2B Terrin Vavra SP DL Hall
SS Junior Sanquintin SP Dean Kremer
3B Keoni Cavaco SP Keegan Akin
LF Austin Hays
CF Jordyn Adams Bullpen
RF Anthony Santander RP Hunter Harvey
DH Heston Kjerstad RP Seth Corry
RP Zach Pop
Bench RP Cody Carroll
C Chance Sisco RP Pedro Baez
IF Rylan Bannon RP Nick Mikolajchak
OF Kyle Stowers RP Isaac Mattson
OF Yusniel Diaz RP Dillon Tate

Thank you for reading this far. I promise we're almost done here.

As it tends to do at times, the sim went a little off the rails with some big trades and free agent signings. Highlights were the Indians signing George Springer to a 6 year, $170M contract, the Phillies signings JT Realmuto to a 6 year, $172M deal, and the Padres going 6 years, $215M on Trevor Bauer. In terms of trades, the Indians moved Lindor to the Dodgers for a huge prospect package, and the Cubs tore down and netted a ton of prospects, moving Bryant, Happ, Baez, Caratini, and others.

Here is a link to the Royals Review full recap of all the moves that went down. There were some...interesting ones.

https://www.royalsreview.com/2020/11/4/21547847/a-summary-of-the-2020-sb-nation-off-season-simulation

One last link. We've re-made the Orioles top 30-50 prospects list in a Google Sheet, just to show where these new players rank on our top prospects.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GXuehKlC54CWpjYlhdzEKKFAvpXZX8UdwvLosJrAelc/edit?usp=sharing

If you're still with us, thanks for reading! How did we do in the annual SB Nation Offseason GM Sim? We all really enjoyed doing this and are all looking forward to next year. Go Birds!

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