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A Completely Pointless Draft Exercise: 2020


Welcome to the fifth edition of the Completely Pointless Draft Exercise! Many things are different this year, and not just because the draft is shorter. I will endeavor to keep this consistent with previous versions, and (mostly for myself) give a little bit of normalcy to draft season. We'll take a look at the Baseball-Reference draft archives to see who has been drafted at the positions where the Orioles have their top picks this year. It's unfortunate that the O's will not be able to go deeper in this draft with their large bonus pool, so hopefully they can draft smart with their four picks in the first 75 selections.

My usual disclaimer applies: There is no logical reason to do this, and I'm not looking for any tangible value. It will hopefully provide some entertainment if you are interested in random trivialities of baseball, and provide an important reminder that the draft is often a crap shoot.

See last year's version here. Now on to the picks!

2nd Overall Pick

The Orioles have never selected in this position, so no home team reminiscing here. As you can imagine there are lots of big names. The top of this list includes Reggie Jackson (74 bWAR), Justin Verlander (71.6 bWAR), and Will Clark (56.5 bWAR), and there are some current stars likely to climb this list including Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman. Some other familiar names pop up such as World Series hero (and brief Oriole) Joe Carter, Bossman Junior (aka Melvin Upton Jr.), and Pedro Alvarez.

Overall, 47 out of 55 players selected here have made the majors. If you don't count the last three years picks as they have not had significant time in the minors the number looks even better at 47/52 (~90%). That's not too shabby. Of course there are busts looming in that list as well, but chances are high that whomever the Orioles select with this pick will see major league time in the future.

If the Orioles rebuild goes well, this pick may be a prominent piece of the puzzle.

30th Overall Pick

One previous O's selection here. In 1968 they picked up right handed pitcher Michael Herson from the University of Maryland. Michael bounced around in the minors for the O's and Brewers for six seasons but never made it to the majors.

At 30th overall, this spot has been a first round pick, a supplemental round pick, and even a second round pick depending on the year. In 1971 the Phillies found a shortstop from Ohio University named Mike Schmidt. He had to slide over to third, but I think the 106.9 bWAR, 10 gold gloves, 12 All-Star appearances, 3 MVPs, and a World Series ring (and MVP!) make up for it. Other notables here include David Wells, Travis Fryman, and Brian Jordan. You may also recognize Jack Cust and Chris Sabo as brief Orioles, though more notably of the Athletics and Reds.

I'm rooting for the Mike Schmidt type pick here.

39th Overall Pick

A little bit more Orioles team history at this pick. Let's start with the less interesting. In 1973 they selected righty Jerry Guinn from an Oklahoma high school, and he never made it out of the rookie league. Don Baylor was the 39th overall pick for the O's in 1967. He had a nice start to his career in Baltimore, but went on to greater success elsewhere after being part of the trade package to Oakland for Reggie Jackson in 1976. Baylor was the AL MVP with the California Angels in 1979, and had a very nice World Series performance with the Minnesota Twins near the end of his career in 1987. He only amassed 28.5 bWAR over 19 seasons, but made the most of his time in the big leagues.

In 1987, the O's lost this pick to the Mets for signing Ray Knight. The Mets picked up catcher Todd Hundley who ended up playing parts of 14 seasons in the majors. Knight was traded to the Tigers after one season and then Detroit released him following a second lackluster campaign. The most recent 39th overall pick for the Orioles was in 1998 when they received a supplemental pick for the loss of free agent Randy Myers. They picked up outfielder Mamon Tucker from the Texas high school ranks. Tucker spent seven years in the minors, reaching as high as AA with the Phillies organization, but never made it to the show.

Buried after all of this O's-centric talk is the fact that Barry Bonds is the greatest ever selection from this spot with 162.8 bWAR. Next on the list is the previously mentioned Baylor. Whatever you think of Bonds, that's a ridiculous number. Current players Lance Lynn and Joey Gallo also feature high on the list.

74th Overall Pick

Three previous 74th overall selections for the Orioles. In 1978 the pick was shortstop Bobby Bonner from Texas A&M, and he accumulated 117 plate appearances from 1980-1983 for the O's without much to show for it. Chris Ray was selected in 2003 from the College of William and Mary. Ray had a nice little ~200 inning run in the bullpen (including some time as the O's closer) before being shipped off to Texas in exchange for pitching mentor Kevin Millwood. Very recently, this was the spot for current starting pitching prospect Zac Lowther from Xavier University. While he's gotten mixed reviews from the prospect evaluators he seems to be on track for at least getting a cup of coffee in the majors some time in next couple years.

Outside of Baltimore, two names jump out here: David Cone and Graig Nettles. As an Orioles fan who was in middle school in Yankee territory in the mid-late 90s I'm very familiar with David Cone. Nettles is a player I often forget, but every time I see his numbers I'm surprised there is not more said about his career. He amassed 68 bWAR over his 22 year career, and his JAWS rating is 12th for third-basemen. If Adrian Beltre is elected to the Hall of Fame (it would be a crime if he isn't), the only other player above him on that list who has not been enshrined would be Scott Rolen (a borderline case himself). That's really good for someone who does not get much attention. I suppose that's what happens when you play most of your career as a Yankee and don't stand out amongst their other greats.






Four picks out of the first 75 is a good chance to find some talent. There have clearly been gems to find in the past, and hopefully we can see a little magic happen in the years to come.

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